Porterbrook Cl.769 'Flex' trains from 319s, initially for Northern

[Bantamzen]

Well, that's definitely not a DMU.

Have they given up? I bet Vivarail will be happy if so!

I'm not sure why they'd be happy about the 769 project having problems, its not as if Northern or other possible Flex customers are suddenly going to want 230s when the ask is an EMU with a diesel power unit for unwired sections. They might seem like similar projects but in reality are miles apart.

 

[D365]

Reports elsewhere online suggest that there are some significant technical challenges to sort out with the traction packages on the 769 ......

Be interesting to know if they have retained any knowledge/documentation at all from the GEC days.

 

[stu99]

https://www.railmagazine.com/news/rail-features/flex-and-flexibility
There was this posted on the 22nd Jan, there are no hints of problems, but there obviously has been...
I assume there has been no more news?

 

[pemma]

https://www.railmagazine.com/news/rail-features/flex-and-flexibility
There was this posted on the 22nd Jan, there are no hints of problems, but there obviously has been...
I assume there has been no more news?

Ignore the website article date and note what's said underneath

• This feature was published in RAIL 819 (February 1-February 14 2017), and is available digitally on Android and iPad.

 

[stu99]

Ignore the website article date and note what's said underneath

oops nevermind, didn't see that...

 

[YorkshireBear]

If the 769 project fails, in terms of rolling stock Northern have a big issue. Hopefully some formal confirmation of whats going on will be published shortly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If the 769 project fails, in terms of rolling stock Northern have a big issue. Hopefully some formal confirmation of whats going on will be published shortly.

Agreed. Though it may of course provide a boost to a certain other EMU-to-DMU related project...not to mention a strong argument to pack in the moaning and get the wires to Windermere done.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Agreed. Though it may of course provide a boost to a certain other EMU-to-DMU related project...not to mention a strong argument to pack in the moaning and get the wires to Windermere done.

It would certainly provide some justificaiton for moving Manchester - Stalybridge, Bolton - Wigan past GRIP 3 and stop messing around at windemere as you say.

 

[mushroomchow]

What a shambles.

 

[a_c_skinner]

What a shambles.

Do we know it is a shambles? At the moment it just looks like it is a bit delayed, which frankly is not uncommon in the rail industry.

I assume no one actually knows what is happening and is allowed to say on here.

 

[CapitalStar378]

How does this leave the 5 units ordered by ATW/Wales & Borders? The 769s were supposed to be delivered in April to allow for the PRM mods to 150s and for extra capacity.

I don't think there's a plan B.

 

[Chester1]

Agreed. Though it may of course provide a boost to a certain other EMU-to-DMU related project...not to mention a strong argument to pack in the moaning and get the wires to Windermere done.

Not a chance of Windermere getting wired under this government. There is enough electrification in the pipe line until 2022 and then if it continues there will be other priorities. Windermere will probably receive a trial hydrogen or battery train to limit the political damage in a marginal seat.

How does this leave the 5 units ordered by ATW/Wales & Borders? The 769s were supposed to be delivered in April to allow for the PRM mods to 150s and for extra capacity.

I don't think there's a plan B.

Northern's 8 where due to be delivered in April with work on W&B units starting afterwards. I would be surprised if they arrive before the end of the franchise in October. Work on 150 mods could potentially start when the franchise is awarded at the end of May but probably not until October.

 

[gareth950]

How does this leave the 5 units ordered by ATW/Wales & Borders? The 769s were supposed to be delivered in April to allow for the PRM mods to 150s and for extra capacity.

I don't think there's a plan B.

There isn't a plan B.

The only thing the next operator can realistically do is get hold of all the Pacers from Northern as they go off lease from the Autumn to allow 150s and 158s to go away for mods.
Otherwise Wales will be running illegal trains on 1/1/2020.

Northern's 8 where due to be delivered in April with work on W&B units starting afterwards. I would be surprised if they arrive before the end of the franchise in October. Work on 150 mods could potentially start when the franchise is awarded at the end of May but probably not until October.

No 150s can be sent away now without mass stock shortages. ATW is stretched to the limit even when all the fleet is available.

 

[mushroomchow]

Do we know it is a shambles? At the moment it just looks like it is a bit delayed, which frankly is not uncommon in the rail industry.

I assume no one actually knows what is happening and is allowed to say on here.

Okay, maybe shambles is a bit of a strong word - but there are still some rightful concerns to be addressed, either by Porterbrook or Northern.

We haven't even seen a 769 in the flesh yet, let alone going out for testing - one was supposed to have shown up at the GCR this month with a view to entering service in three months' time - and these things are supposed to be helping with the looming Pacer replacement programme, which is a political and operational timebomb. The only confirmation we have so far had has been that the engines to be used have been tested in a standalone form - not as part of the final unit itself.

Let me repeat that - we have never even seen in the flesh, let alone witnessed testing of, a 769 flex, three months ahead of their originally scheduled introduction into service. It's farcical.

Even though 8 units doesn't sound like much in respect of a wider fleet, strategically those 8 sprinters freed up are vital for allowing the retirement of 14X units. There's going to be either a fairly chronic stock shortage on the horizon, or a big fat broken promise, for Northern if the delay to the 769s is anything like as long as it's looking like being. And of course, all this is to say nothing of the dwindling likelihood of their use on the Valley Lines in Wales.

I imagine somebody at Vivarail is rubbing their hands together with glee at this project's apparent misfortunes.

 

[PHILIPE]

Okay, maybe shambles is a bit of a strong word - but there are still some rightful concerns to be addressed, either by Porterbrook or Northern.

We haven't even seen a 769 in the flesh yet, let alone going out for testing - one was supposed to have shown up at the GCR this month with a view to entering service in three months' time - and these things are supposed to be helping with the looming Pacer replacement programme, which is a political and operational timebomb.

Let me repeat that - we have never even seen in the flesh, let alone witnessed testing of, a 769 flex, three months ahead of their originally scheduled introduction into service. It's farcical.

Even though 8 units doesn't sound like much in respect of a wider fleet, strategically those 8 sprinters freed up are vital for allowing the retirement of 14X units. There's going to be either a fairly chronic stock shortage on the horizon, or a big fat broken promise, for Northern if the delay to the 769s is anything like as long as it's looking like being.

I imagine somebody at Vivarail is rubbing their hands together with glee at this project's apparent misfortunes.

ATW are expecting 5 also.

 

[mushroomchow]

ATW are expecting 5 also.

Blame my pesky trigger finger - I was adding that in an edit as you responded.

 

[Chester1]

Okay, maybe shambles is a bit of a strong word - but there are still some rightful concerns to be addressed, either by Porterbrook or Northern.

We haven't even seen a 769 in the flesh yet, let alone going out for testing - one was supposed to have shown up at the GCR by the start of the month - and these things are supposed to be helping with the looming Pacer replacement programme, which is a political and operational timebomb. Even though 8 units doesn't sound like much in respect of a wider fleet, strategically those 8 sprinters freed up are vital for allowing the retirement of 14X units. There's going to be either a fairly chronic stock shortage on the horizon, or a big fat broken promise, for Northern if the delay to the 769s is anything like as long as it's looking like being.

I imagine somebody at Vivarail is rubbing their hands together with glee at this project's apparent misfortunes.

Northern will be running a temporary timetable between May and December and therefore can get away without the 769s until December or indefinitely. The Northern pacers (starting with 5 x 144s) are due to start going off lease in September but will probably stay until Manchester to Preston has been wired. W&B are likely to be able to lease plenty of extra pacers from December and the worst case scenario is a modified timetable between December 2018 and December 2019 to enable 144s to run services currently opperated by 150s. Vivarail have shot themselves in the foot by building a 60mph train that costs 2/3rds as much as a brand new DMU. If the 769 project is cancelled then its likely Northern will order more 195s from CAF and make do until they arrive. If the rumours about the Valleys line are true they will be closed for light rail conversion at some point and it would make sense for work to start 1st January 2020.

 

[47802]

Okay, maybe shambles is a bit of a strong word - but there are still some rightful concerns to be addressed, either by Porterbrook or Northern.

We haven't even seen a 769 in the flesh yet, let alone going out for testing - one was supposed to have shown up at the GCR this month with a view to entering service in three months' time - and these things are supposed to be helping with the looming Pacer replacement programme, which is a political and operational timebomb. The only confirmation we have so far had has been that the engines to be used have been tested in a standalone form - not as part of the final unit itself.

Let me repeat that - we have never even seen in the flesh, let alone witnessed testing of, a 769 flex, three months ahead of their originally scheduled introduction into service. It's farcical.

Even though 8 units doesn't sound like much in respect of a wider fleet, strategically those 8 sprinters freed up are vital for allowing the retirement of 14X units. There's going to be either a fairly chronic stock shortage on the horizon, or a big fat broken promise, for Northern if the delay to the 769s is anything like as long as it's looking like being. And of course, all this is to say nothing of the dwindling likelihood of their use on the Valley Lines in Wales.

I imagine somebody at Vivarail is rubbing their hands together with glee at this project's apparent misfortunes.

Bit of Hysterical over reaction I think, still nearly 2 years before Pacers have to go, and given the number of units involved I would think Arriva will be far more concerned that the new CAF units are introduced on time without too many issues, and that there isn't a delay in getting hold of their cascaded units.

 

[samuelmorris]

I don't think Vivarail will be affected at all, they aren't really competing products, even if they're similar concepts. The concept of pacers moving down to ATW seems fairly likely at this point. Whether lines will end up being shut down for bustitution on 1st Jan 2020 is probably down to potential change in legislation rather than technical outcomes. It looks as if most people have written off the idea of the W&B franchise having sufficiently many units that meet PRM-TSI.

 

[gareth950]

Lines shutting down in Wales on 1/1/2020 for bustitution would be political dynamite in Wales. With Welsh Govt having spent the last 3 years talking up their plans for the next W&B franchise as 'world class', 'truly transformational' and offering a 'step change' in service provision, to have 150 and 142/143 operated routes shut down would be catastrophic for Welsh Govt.

Even if the bonkers plans for LR conversion of the Valley lines go ahead, shutting down the VL during the working week would again be politically explosive. There are no other alternative public transport routes into Cardiff from the Valleys apart from buses that take at least twice as long as the train.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think Vivarail will be affected at all, they aren't really competing products

They aren't competing products, but there are places where they could be used to allow an alternative cascade in the short to medium term pending more new-build or more electrification. For instance, Windermere could be reduced to a shuttle using a 4-car 230[1] freeing up some 15x, with a connecting service operated using an EMU (perhaps Carlisle to Manchester Airport?) in addition to what's there now.

Yes, that'd be a franchise breach...but there have been several material changes (breaches, effectively) on NR's side...

[1] Rather than one unit, 3 x 2-car units, normally operated as a pair with one unit spare, would probably make most sense.

 

[rebmcr]

Lines shutting down in Wales on 1/1/2020 for bustitution would be political dynamite in Wales. With Welsh Govt having spent the last 3 years talking up their plans for the next W&B franchise as 'world class', 'truly transformational' and offering a 'step change' in service provision, to have 150 and 142/143 operated routes shut down would be catastrophic for Welsh Govt.

Even if the bonkers plans for LR conversion of the Valley lines go ahead, shutting down the VL during the working week would again be politically explosive. There are no other alternative public transport routes into Cardiff from the Valleys apart from buses that take at least twice as long as the train.

You say that like it would stop them...

 

[gareth950]

You say that like it would stop them...

Well it should unless they want to lose their first ever Welsh Assembly election in 2021, as Welsh Labour is dependent on it's seats in the Valleys to retain power in the Assembly.

 

[Chester1]

Lines shutting down in Wales on 1/1/2020 for bustitution would be political dynamite in Wales. With Welsh Govt having spent the last 3 years talking up their plans for the next W&B franchise as 'world class', 'truly transformational' and offering a 'step change' in service provision, to have 150 and 142/143 operated routes shut down would be catastrophic for Welsh Govt.

Even if the bonkers plans for LR conversion of the Valley lines go ahead, shutting down the VL during the working week would again be politically explosive. There are no other alternative public transport routes into Cardiff from the Valleys apart from buses that take at least twice as long as the train.

You say that like it would stop them...

Well it should unless they want to lose their first ever Welsh Assembly election in 2021, as Welsh Labour is dependent on it's seats in the Valleys to retain power in the Assembly.

Who would win the seats if not Labour? I am not advocating LR conversion or timing a complete closure for 1st January 2020 but I think its possible and that Labour would get away with it. They could sell it as clever timing and argue that most light rail conversions have involved long closures. A considerable number of people simply won't listen to any counter argument especially from Tories. A derogation conditional on pacers only being used connected to compliant units is possible too.

All this debate assumes that the 769s won't arrive by December 2019. Cascaded pacers can cover until then. Northern can let them go once Manchester to Preston has been wired and / they recieve their 769s.

 

[PHILIPE]

Well it should unless they want to lose their first ever Welsh Assembly election in 2021, as Welsh Labour is dependent on it's seats in the Valleys to retain power in the Assembly.

The problem is too many people vote for the name of a party by tradition rather than the performance of the party.

 

[Chester1]

The problem is too many people vote for the name of a party by tradition rather than the performance of the party.

I agree, Labour has held the valleys for literally a century. They are not going to collaspe there regardless of how much of a mess the rail situation becomes. The worst case scenario for Welsh Labour in 2021 is that they swap relying on 1 Lib Dem AM to govern to a coalition with either Lib Dems if they win more than 1 seat or PC.

 

[a_c_skinner]

This pans out at keeping the Pacers for a little longer and derogation for the modifications of existing stock, with luck for the duration of a short delay of the 769s.

 

[gareth950]

I agree, Labour has held the valleys for literally a century. They are not going to collaspe there regardless of how much of a mess the rail situation becomes. The worst case scenario for Welsh Labour in 2021 is that they swap relying on 1 Lib Dem AM to govern to a coalition with either Lib Dems if they win more than 1 seat or PC.

The tribal voting in the Valleys is starting to weaken. Leanne Wood got elected in the Rhondda in 2016. Younger voters especially are not as loyal to a particular party as the older generations.

 

[gazthomas]

Unless a secret order for trains has been placed. Everything about the new W&B franchise has been done in total secrecy.

Great to see that transparent democracy is alive and well. In my defence I am Welsh but despair at the the inept and inefficient nature of Welsh bureaucracy.

 

[gareth950]

Great to see that transparent democracy is alive and well. In my defence I am Welsh but despair at the the inept and inefficient nature of Welsh bureaucracy.

I reckon a a large, top secret order for D-trains has been placed. Might explain Vivarail's buoyant mood.