Potential slashing of rail services in 2021

[Domh245]

Or, to put it another way, can the railway really afford all of these new 'toys'?

A bit late to ask once they're all being built and delivered! At that point, it's worth taking the hit (noting that it's the ROSCO who is stumping the cash up front) and hopefully making use of savings that new fleets may allow you to realise

My railcard expires in Jan. I wont be renewing it until I can take long distance walking trips up North again.

My railcard expired recently and I'm definitely in no rush to renew it. It only just broke even over it's year - I've only done a single mainline rail journey in 2020 when I might realistically have expected to have done at least 3 or 4 Nottingham-London return trips and all manner of others. Seeing as I've no reason to get on a train anytime soon either, no point sinking £30 into it

 

[yorksrob]

According to Christian Wolmar's Rail Magazine article (written in August, but still apposite):

Treasury draws up cuts plan for the railways – Christian Wolmar

It seems to me that lightly used rural and branch lines that have no freight traffic will be especially at risk of mothballing. The Treasury would see this as giving significant savings in infrastructure operational and maintenance costs, with minimal negative impact on overall national economic activity.

Which is exactly the wrong approach, as most of the "lightly used" rural routes aren't that lightly used.

A bit late to ask once they're all being built and delivered! At that point, it's worth taking the hit (noting that it's the ROSCO who is stumping the cash up front) and hopefully making use of savings that new fleets may allow you to realise



My railcard expired recently and I'm definitely in no rush to renew it. It only just broke even over it's year - I've only done a single mainline rail journey in 2020 when I might realistically have expected to have done at least 3 or 4 Nottingham-London return trips and all manner of others. Seeing as I've no reason to get on a train anytime soon either, no point sinking £30 into it

I renewed my Dales Railcard and I've been making good use of it, but the Network Railcard was always a bit marginal given where I live, and I definitely won't be renewing it this year. Fewer leisure journeys down South will be the result.

 

[Bald Rick]

Is this with lockdown loadings, or the 40% or thereabouts of previous loadings achieved without counterproductive national restrictions ?

Post lockdown

I would be interested to know what the train loadings are like. The traffic for my commute is nowhere near as quiet as “Lockdown 1”, in fact it’s getting closer to pre-COVID..

Loadimgs definitively down in lockdown 2, but no where near as much as in lockdown 1. Somewhere around 20% at a guess.

According to Christian Wolmar's Rail Magazine article (written in August

There’s only three things to consider with that article: the date, the publication, and the author.

 

[paul1609]

Is this with lockdown loadings, or the 40% or thereabouts of previous loadings achieved without counterproductive national restrictions ?

It would be interesting to know where these loadings were being achieved. Marshlink loadings outside the school trips are next to nothing. The empty car parks suggest that most Southeastern services are similar. A friend who drives for Southern suggests that all of the Coastway and the Brighton Main Line outside London aren't much better. Under 10% I would think down here rather than 40%.

 

[yorksrob]

It would be interesting to know where these loadings were being achieved. Marshlink loadings outside the school trips are next to nothing. The empty car parks suggest that most Southeastern services are similar. A friend who drives for Southern suggests that all of the Coastway and the Brighton Main Line outside London aren't much better. Under 10% I would think down here rather than 40%.

That is worrying. I would have expected the Coastway services to have bounced back the most on the Southern, given their local importance.

From my own experience since lockdown 1, the Hallam stopper seems to be holding up, as have local services between Leeds and York. The WCML to Glasgow, GC to Bradford have had healthy loadings. On the more scenic side, I've been on reasonably busy trains to Scarborough, Whitby, Windermere, Silverdale and Appleby.

It really does seem to be the leisure sector that's performing best up here.

 

[87015]

That is worrying. I would have expected the Coastway services to have bounced back the most on the Southern, given their local importance.

From my own experience since lockdown 1, the Hallam stopper seems to be holding up, as have local services between Leeds and York. The WCML to Glasgow, GC to Bradford have had healthy loadings. On the more scenic side, I've been on reasonably busy trains to Scarborough, Whitby, Windermere, Silverdale and Appleby.

It really does seem to be the leisure sector that's performing best up here.

What are you considering a healthy loading? GC have been suspened so wasn't doing well enough to try and roll through four weeks of lockdown 2. Northern of course ate subsidy with pre-COVID loadings.

 

[peters]

It would be interesting to know where these loadings were being achieved. Marshlink loadings outside the school trips are next to nothing. The empty car parks suggest that most Southeastern services are similar. A friend who drives for Southern suggests that all of the Coastway and the Brighton Main Line outside London aren't much better. Under 10% I would think down here rather than 40%.

If there's a lot of cutbacks in the South East presumably that'll mean a lot of redundant 3rd rail trains, so they can't just take the place of old trains in other parts of the country.

 

[yorksrob]

What are you considering a healthy loading? GC have been suspened so wasn't doing well enough to try and roll through four weeks of lockdown 2. Northern of course ate subsidy with pre-COVID loadings.

When I was on it, every double seat seemed to be occupied. I would consider that healthy, given the circumstances.

 

[peters]

What are you considering a healthy loading? GC have been suspened so wasn't doing well enough to try and roll through four weeks of lockdown 2. Northern of course ate subsidy with pre-COVID loadings.

The Independent reported this week that Intercity services to and from London are the worst affected by COVID, as the leisure travel market to London was significant but is now non-existent.

Comparing Northern with other operators is not comparing like with like. How are the local East Anglia services doing compared to Northern, or how are the local South West services doing compared to Northern? We don't know because DfT decided to create franchises that aren't comparable.

 

[DustyBin]

A bit late to ask once they're all being built and delivered! At that point, it's worth taking the hit (noting that it's the ROSCO who is stumping the cash up front) and hopefully making use of savings that new fleets may allow you to realise

I realise it's too late in some cases but we do need to think carefully about further rolling stock orders. It looks as though perfectly good fleets are going to become homeless which seems wasteful at the best of times but even more so when we're facing cuts. I still can't understand how and why we reached the point where half of the 365 fleet is sat rotting away. There appears to be a lack of joined up thinking across the board, with orders being placed and then suitable fleets becoming available a short time later that would have removed the need to buy new. Ultimately, new trains need to be paid for....

 

[Horizon22]

I *really* don't want to call for cuts, but I do wonder for example if Cambridge really justifies an all-day 7 trains an hour service to London at the moment (2 x 12 carriages and 5 x 8 carriages, I assume) given the lack of commuter, student and tourist traffic.

I suppose it has already been reduced from 8 an hour with the GN timetable being based on Saturday (so 1 'stopper' terminates at Royston) but if the options end up being as blunt as to either pare this back further for a while, or close branch lines around Norfolk and Suffolk, I know which I'd prefer.

Many towns in Home Counties locations like Cambridge - such as Woking, Guildford, Oxford, Chelmsford, Bedford are a few that come to mind - probably do have an excessive service at the moment and might be pared back in the future. Of course there's also operational considerations of where it is easiest to remove / shorten a service as required.

 

[Bald Rick]

It would be interesting to know where these loadings were being achieved. Marshlink loadings outside the school trips are next to nothing. The empty car parks suggest that most Southeastern services are similar. A friend who drives for Southern suggests that all of the Coastway and the Brighton Main Line outside London aren't much better. Under 10% I would think down here rather than 40%.

Loadings were (are) best on commuting to regional cities, and in London’s case commuting from within Greater London. Early morning loadings (pre 0730) are particularly strong.

Percentage wise, off peak has held up much better than peak.

Healthy loadings on the regional railways, ie services not into the main cities, is of course good for them, but in terms of national loading figures it is noise in the system. Almost two thirds of national rail journeys are to/from or wholly within London. And well over half the rest is commuting into the regional centres.

 

[Class 466]

Services in Kent will see a reduction as of next week. Going from the current WTT back to roughly July/Augusts timetable. So not even next year!

 

[yorksrob]

Services in Kent will see a reduction as of next week. Going from the current WTT back to roughly July/Augusts timetable. So not even next year!

I wasn't aware that Kent had seen a recent uplift. I take it it's standard half hourly on most routes.

 

[Class 466]

I wasn't aware that Kent had seen a recent uplift. I take it it's standard half hourly on most routes.

Yeah, In September they went back to near a full timetable, however other commuter operators south of the river didn't. I believe so, they're communicating on twitter that it should be uploaded by some point tomorrow.

 

[Greybeard33]

Which is exactly the wrong approach, as most of the "lightly used" rural routes aren't that lightly used.

But, from the viewpoint of a Treasury bean counter, can a service of 2-car trains on a rural route, at hourly or lower frequency, ever come close to raising sufficient farebox revenue to cover the employment costs of the Network Rail signallers, permanent way gangs, maintenance engineers and backroom staff, in addition to the TOC traincrew, fuel and vehicle maintenance costs? Even with patronage back to pre-Covid levels?

 

[brad465]

Services in Kent will see a reduction as of next week. Going from the current WTT back to roughly July/Augusts timetable. So not even next year!

I wasn't aware that Kent had seen a recent uplift. I take it it's standard half hourly on most routes.

Yeah, In September they went back to near a full timetable, however other commuter operators south of the river didn't. I believe so, they're communicating on twitter that it should be uploaded by some point tomorrow.

Round my way passenger numbers have been high; probably not back to pre-March levels but notable enough that social distancing on trains isn't always easy. They definitely need to maintain services around school hours as those services (on both routes through Maidstone and I've also seen many at Tonbridge again) have been packed to the rafters.

 

[yorksrob]

Yeah, In September they went back to near a full timetable, however other commuter operators south of the river didn't. I believe so, they're communicating on twitter that it should be uploaded by some point tomorrow.

Ah, that was possibly a bit optimistic then !

But, from the viewpoint of a Treasury bean counter, can a service of 2-car trains on a rural route, at hourly or lower frequency, ever come close to raising sufficient farebox revenue to cover the employment costs of the Network Rail signallers, permanent way gangs, maintenance engineers and backroom staff, in addition to the TOC traincrew, fuel and vehicle maintenance costs? Even with patronage back to pre-Covid levels?

Well, fundamentally, if there was a reason to subsidise that service pre covid, there probably is post, particularly if numbers have held up.

Round my way passenger numbers have been high; probably not back to pre-March levels but notable enough that social distancing on trains isn't always easy. They definitely need to maintain services around school hours as those services (on both routes through Maidstone and I've also seen many at Tonbridge again) have been packed to the rafters.

Good to know that those routes are doing ok. Come to think of it, I remember seeing a fair few waiting to get on at Maidstone East on the occasions I've been through.

 

[Domh245]

I realise it's too late in some cases but we do need to think carefully about further rolling stock orders. It looks as though perfectly good fleets are going to become homeless which seems wasteful at the best of times but even more so when we're facing cuts. I still can't understand how and why we reached the point where half of the 365 fleet is sat rotting away. There appears to be a lack of joined up thinking across the board, with orders being placed and then suitable fleets becoming available a short time later that would have removed the need to buy new. Ultimately, new trains need to be paid for....

Definitely agree that there was a period a few years ago where bidders were throwing new trains at everything with very little in the way of whole fleet strategy from on-high. I think that this has been reigned in recently, although whether this is because of the bad media that surrounded the 707s being made redundant before even entering service (with consequent realisation for a need to implement some sort of strategy) or because the DfT started changing weightings with less weighting on new trains and so fewer new trains are being ordered

I do think that we are over the recent spike of new train orders and will be going into something of an extended lull now. I do hope that and expect that these orders will be more closely orchestrated by the DfT* and with a bit more thought to whole network strategy

*well, at least in basic terms. Specifying that they want 100mph dual voltage commuter EMUs is OK, them going down the same sort of micromanagement we saw with Thameslink programme or even IEP is not!

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Services in Kent will see a reduction as of next week. Going from the current WTT back to roughly July/Augusts timetable. So not even next year!

I await with baited breath the proposed service reductions especially as it's my patch. As most routes serve London, I would support a half-hourly service at the very least. My train home from Victoria is always busy (i.e. 1 person to each seat bay)

What lines in Kent could possibly be mothballed? I suggest none at first glance; there aren't many branch lines and services via the Medway Valley provide useful links from the Medway Towns to Maidstone and Tonbridge. How much usage does the Bromley North branch see?

I was very disappointed (many months ago) that services between Dover and Ramsgate (via Deal) are generally only 1 an hour when 2tph would be most useful IMHO. I hadn't realised until I used the line a few times recently that this was the case.

Ashford-Hastings is always busy when I see them and the link to towns on the Sussex coast is most welcome/useful.

 

[Bald Rick]

But, from the viewpoint of a Treasury bean counter, can a service of 2-car trains on a rural route, at hourly or lower frequency, ever come close to raising sufficient farebox revenue to cover the employment costs of the Network Rail signallers, permanent way gangs, maintenance engineers and backroom staff, in addition to the TOC traincrew, fuel and vehicle maintenance costs? Even with patronage back to pre-Covid levels?

In a way, those economics actually help. A service that is paid 95% by the taxpayers but only 5% by farepayers, as many of the rural services are, doesn’t miss the farepayers.

Definitely agree that there was a period a few years ago where bidders were throwing new trains at everything with very little in the way of whole fleet strategy from on-high. I think that this has been reigned in recently, although whether this is because of the bad media that surrounded the 707s being made redundant before even entering service (with consequent realisation for a need to implement some sort of strategy) or because the DfT started changing weightings with less weighting on new trains and so fewer new trains are being ordered

It stopped because franchising stopped pending the Williams review.

 

[Domh245]

It stopped because franchising stopped pending the Williams review.

True, but it feels like EMR's franchise was a lot more strategic in it's use of rolling stock than franchises awarded before. The brand new 810s hide that somewhat, but rehoming the 360s (at just the right size of fleet for the Corby service + also more difficult to rehome than, for example, 379s) and 170s (possibly a little too optimistically with the issues around freeing 171s now) was certainly a change to previous franchises. Had it been awarded say 2 years earlier, a new fleet of CAFs and Aventras for regional and Corby respectively in addition to the new intercity fleet wouldn't have seemed out of course

Maybe that was my then-East Midland resident being a bit jealous that whilst Anglian, Welsh and West Midland passengers would be swanning around in their new FLIRTs or rattling around in their new CAFs, East Midlanders would be making do with the trains that they used to have 15 years previously

 

[Class 466]

I await with baited breath the proposed service reductions especially as it's my patch. As most routes serve London, I would support a half-hourly service at the very least. My train home from Victoria is always busy (i.e. 1 person to each seat bay)

What lines in Kent could possibly be mothballed? I suggest none at first glance; there aren't many branch lines and services via the Medway Valley provide useful links from the Medway Towns to Maidstone and Tonbridge. How much usage does the Bromley North branch see?

I was very disappointed (many months ago) that services between Dover and Ramsgate (via Deal) are generally only 1 an hour when 2tph would be most useful IMHO. I hadn't realised until I used the line a few times recently that this was the case.

Ashford-Hastings is always busy when I see them and the link to towns on the Sussex coast is most welcome/useful.

This link provides a basic outline in advance of the upload: https://www.southeasternrailway.co.uk/travel-information/live-travel-information/timetables

The Medway Valley bit is wrong as it's currently 2tph all day rather than just peak only.

 

[brad465]

I await with baited breath the proposed service reductions especially as it's my patch. As most routes serve London, I would support a half-hourly service at the very least. My train home from Victoria is always busy (i.e. 1 person to each seat bay)

What lines in Kent could possibly be mothballed? I suggest none at first glance; there aren't many branch lines and services via the Medway Valley provide useful links from the Medway Towns to Maidstone and Tonbridge. How much usage does the Bromley North branch see?

I was very disappointed (many months ago) that services between Dover and Ramsgate (via Deal) are generally only 1 an hour when 2tph would be most useful IMHO. I hadn't realised until I used the line a few times recently that this was the case.

Ashford-Hastings is always busy when I see them and the link to towns on the Sussex coast is most welcome/useful.

Correct me if I'm wrong, the Bromley North branch I believe was mothballed in the first lockdown, or at the very least had a much reduced service. The Sheerness branch is getting a half frequency of 1tph, which won't cause too much issue as that's the Sunday service pattern; the only mothballing that could be done without issue on that line is Swale station not being served, but everywhere else will still warrant some service.

This link provides a basic outline in advance of the upload: https://www.southeasternrailway.co.uk/travel-information/live-travel-information/timetables

The Medway Valley bit is wrong as it's currently 2tph all day rather than just peak only.

Depends what part of the Medway valley line we're talking about: if it's between Strood and Maidstone West it is 2tph all day normally, but the section through to Paddock Wood is 1tph off peak (they probably should have split it up better on the site). In the peak time normally it's very irregular with everything terminating at Paddock Wood, but because no extra units are allocated (ignoring the Highspeed services), they cannot maintain a half hourly frequency.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

This link provides a basic outline in advance of the upload: https://www.southeasternrailway.co.uk/travel-information/live-travel-information/timetables

The Medway Valley bit is wrong as it's currently 2tph all day rather than just peak only.

Thank you

 

[Greybeard33]

In a way, those economics actually help. A service that is paid 95% by the taxpayers but only 5% by farepayers, as many of the rural services are, doesn’t miss the farepayers.

Indeed so. But does the government still consider it a political imperative to ring-fence those long-standing subsidies to rural services, now there are so many other demands on the public finances? Rural services might be seen as a "soft target", compared with trying to cut costs solely by frequency reductions in intercity and commuter services that used to break even. Mothballing branch lines could deliver larger savings in Network Rail operational and maintenance expenditure than traffic reductions on main lines, relative to the number of passengers inconvenienced.

 

[yorksrob]

What lines in Kent could possibly be mothballed? I suggest none at first glance; there aren't many branch lines and services via the Medway Valley provide useful links from the Medway Towns to Maidstone and Tonbridge. How much usage does the Bromley North branch see?

I was very disappointed (many months ago) that services between Dover and Ramsgate (via Deal) are generally only 1 an hour when 2tph would be most useful IMHO. I hadn't realised until I used the line a few times recently that this was the case.

Ashford-Hastings is always busy when I see them and the link to towns on the Sussex coast is most welcome/useful

I can't imagine any of them being mothballed, except perhaps the Dungeness branch.

I'm surprised Dover - Ramsgate isn't half hourly though.

 

[Class 466]

Southeastern services from next week are now showing in Realtime Trains etc.

 

[Bikeman78]

Indeed so. But does the government still consider it a political imperative to ring-fence those long-standing subsidies to rural services, now there are so many other demands on the public finances? Rural services might be seen as a "soft target", compared with trying to cut costs solely by frequency reductions in intercity and commuter services that used to break even. Mothballing branch lines could deliver larger savings in Network Rail operational and maintenance expenditure than traffic reductions on main lines, relative to the number of passengers inconvenienced.

Why are we talking about mothballing lines? Even if the number of passengers levels out at 50% of the February 2020 figure, that is still roughly the same number as the year 2000. Was anything planned for closure then?

 

[158756]

Why are we talking about mothballing lines? Even if the number of passengers levels out at 50% of the February 2020 figure, that is still roughly the same number as the year 2000. Was anything planned for closure then?

I don't know if anything was seriously under consideration, but definitely more recently than that MPs and local papers up here still talked about the threat of closure.

The key difference with 2000 is that 2000 levels of patronage won't bring back 2000 levels of subsidy, even after making the extra drivers redundant and scrapping half the stock. The pressure from the Treasury will be much greater next year as well. Even if railways were immune to Covid loss making lines would still be in the firing line given the dire government finances.