Predictions for how new timetable will cope on May 20th and 21st

[xotGD]

Your right.......it isn't difficult. But believe me there are going to be an awful lot of angry people! Firstly, Bradford (my home city) will be losing an hourly direct service which we have enjoyed for over 30 years. Secondly....when the train to Blackpool from Bradford Interchange does arrive it has already picked up passengers in Leeds and York.....so getting a seat is a challenge. Finally......if you are going for a day away to Blackpool which thousands of people from West Yorkshire do each year you will be looking at roughly an hour and a half travel time extention.....with a change of train thrown in.

A cunning plan to get more people to visit Scarbados instead!

 

[Starmill]

Firstly, Bradford (my home city) will be losing an hourly direct service which we have enjoyed for over 30 years.

Yes - which ceased in November last year. Six months ago. It's likely to return in December thus year.

 

[Fisherman80]

Yes - which ceased in November last year. Six months ago. It's likely to return in December thus year.

I'm not quite sure you see throngs of people waiting to board a train to Blackpool on a cold November day compared to a warm Saturday in July.......

 

[Starmill]

So? Your claim was that it will be a severe shock to the good folk of Bradford... Except that this is unlikely if any of them have been to Bradford Interchange in the intervening 9 months.

Clearly it's a good idea to save DMU running under the wires to put a DMU out on a route that really needs it. This is something I said I hoped they would do and they have.

What I would criticise here is that generally an arrival from Leeds is at xx39 with onward connecting Blackpool North service not until xx05 - 26 minutes later. This is very poor as there is a xx45 which most would easily be able to catch, but this 6 minute connection cannot be displayed by journey planners. The minimum connection time at Preston is 8 minutes, so the service from Leeds would only need to gain 2 minutes in order to make this a valid connection.

Now lets see how many minutes most services are given to travel from Blackburn to Preston in the May timetable? 19. How many in the current timetable? 17. Hmm.

Of course, it is possible that Northern have deliberately broken this connection by just 2 minutes in order to improve the performance of the service from Leeds, and to reduce the likelihood of delays to the xx45 Blackpool North departure as people rush desperately up to it from their delayed arrival. It's also perfectly possible that nobody has even considered this. Who can say? One way or the other this does make rail a pretty unattractive route from Yorkshire to Blackpool. Journey time with a change is 2h 17 broadly (slightly quicker when a VT service is available) vs 1h 49 with a through train.

The same thing happens to someone travelling from Ormskirk to the South Fylde line.

 

[Fisherman80]

You have some valid points there Starmill.
What I should have said was the good people of Yorkshire.

It just seems absolutely crazy that a busy provincial route serving a number of large towns and cities should be cut back at the height of the holiday season.

 

[cactustwirly]

You have some valid points there Starmill.
What I should have said was the good people of Yorkshire.

It just seems absolutely crazy that a busy provincial route serving a number of large towns and cities should be cut back at the height of the holiday season.

I think you overestimate the amount of people that would travel all the way to Blackpool.
Most people travel to places like Greece & Spain for their holidays rather than Blackpool.

 

[Starmill]

What I should have said was the good people of Yorkshire.

Well of course those travelling to Blackpool from East of Leeds would need to either change twice or pay the higher fare to travel via Manchester.

 

[Spartacus]

Now lets see how many minutes most services are given to travel from Blackburn to Preston in the May timetable? 19. How many in the current timetable? 17. Hmm.

The only difference I can see is the required inclusion of Preston Ribble Jn in the schedule which adds two minutes, but currently most seem to lose a couple in that section anyway, there's certainly nothing that can be taken out.

 

[Fisherman80]

A cunning plan to get more people to visit Scarbados instead!

If only we still had a direct service to Scarborough too Sparticus! We used to have a 2 hourly service many years ago until Trans pennine express became a stand alone franchise

 

[faltskog36abba]

Changing at Preston is hardly difficult.

It is if you are in a wheelchair and the booked assistance arrives with a ramp-Only to be told they cant put it up as the train has stopped too near to the railings on the platform. Twice we as a family have had problems at Preston station, In the end we had to carry my mother off the train as the platform staff refused.

 

[185143]

That working is supposed to be a 4 car 156 so the drop in standard class seats shouldn't be all that many, even if there's less standing space and no first class. Although, there is of course the chance of a 150+156 or a 142+156 turning up.

But the standing space is virtually all taken too. I maintain my view that us Birchwood folk will have no chance of boarding...

 

[30907]

The only difference I can see is the required inclusion of Preston Ribble Jn in the schedule which adds two minutes, but currently most seem to lose a couple in that section anyway, there's certainly nothing that can be taken out.

I'd guess the 2 minutes is standard "end of route" allowance.
Are the terminating trains using the bays 3a/b? If not, it's straightforward enough.

BTW I can't work out how Fisherman80 makes it an extra 90 minutes - that's an incredible amount of time to enjoy the wonders of Preston!

 

[Fisherman80]

I'd guess the 2 minutes is standard "end of route" allowance.
Are the terminating trains using the bays 3a/b? If not, it's straightforward enough.

BTW I can't work out how Fisherman80 makes it an extra 90 minutes - that's an incredible amount of time to enjoy the wonders of Preston!

If you are a railway enthusiast I'm sure there's plenty to see.......but if you are taking your kids to the seaside for the day I'm not so sure you want to be hanging around changing trains!

 

[northernchris]

The only fault i can give at moment is they are not advertising major changes hard enough at stations.

There are now announcements at Leeds advising of the timetable changes. It's quite generic so assume it's also been played at other stations

 

[YorkshireBear]

I noticed at leeds today (after making that post) tpe staff handing out leaflets.

 

[Spartacus]

I'd guess the 2 minutes is standard "end of route" allowance.
Are the terminating trains using the bays 3a/b? If not, it's straightforward enough.

BTW I can't work out how Fisherman80 makes it an extra 90 minutes - that's an incredible amount of time to enjoy the wonders of Preston!

Most terminate in 2 or 1 depending on the day. Some seem to have an extra minute between Ribble Jn and Preston but it's by no means universal, most seem to just have the standard 2 minute pass - stop time.

I don't know where the 90 minutes come from either, even if you miss the Monday - Saturday cross platform connection at Preston there's the stopper behind which gets you into Blackpool North 15/20 minutes later.

 

[47802]

Your right.......it isn't difficult. But believe me there are going to be an awful lot of angry people! Firstly, Bradford (my home city) will be losing an hourly direct service which we have enjoyed for over 30 years. Secondly....when the train to Blackpool from Bradford Interchange does arrive it has already picked up passengers in Leeds and York.....so getting a seat is a challenge. Finally......if you are going for a day away to Blackpool which thousands of people from West Yorkshire do each year you will be looking at roughly an hour and a half travel time extention.....with a change of train thrown in.

Your quite right on this even though many on here seem to want to play this issue down for some reason, even more annoying is the fact that this route isn't part of the North West Electrification Scheme yet it appears more through trains from Blackpool/Barrow etc, to Manchester are being retained at the expense of this service

I also think the new TPE service on the North TPE route will be a right shambles.

 

[BluePenguin]

I am certain that it is all going to be a terrible nightmare for some and heaven for others. People from Medway will be very dissappointed to be losing their semi fast Charing Cross services in particular, along with some Southern services also being replaced by Thameslink.

Passengers North and South of London will be jumping for joy about new direct services and the re-introduction of London Bridge - Balckfriars

 

[whoosh]

In that sense I don't really get the phased Thameslink introduction - to me this is the industry saying it has cold feet about the Thameslink Programme's ambitions.

Nothing to do with cold feet, and everything to do with Driver training.

The 'finished product' requires far more drivers than were supposed to be handed over at the end of FCC's franchise, and the company had to recruit heavily to even get to that level.


Existing Thameslink drivers need training on the new London Bridge layout. Bedford drivers need to re-learn to East Croydon via New Cross Gate as they haven't been over it for four years.

Drivers staying at Bedford need to learn South Croydon to East Grinstead.

Drivers who are going to be based at Luton are learning to Rainham.

Drivers based at Peterborough are learning to Horsham.

Horsham drivers are learning to Peterborough, with the added restriction that they are needed for Southern duties until their transfer to Thameslink in May.

Brighton drivers are learning to Cambridge, plus they need to learn the new layout at London Bridge as mentioned earlier.

Half of Cambridge need to learn to Brighton.
*The other half of Cambridge will need to learn to Maidstone East.

*Welwyn Garden City needs a traincrew depot building. Drivers who'll be Thameslink, based there, will need to learn to Maidstone East and Sevenoaks. Most of them will need to be trained on class 700s as they haven't been yet.

*Hornsey Thameslink drivers will need route training and class 700 traction training. Hornsey needs a traincrew depot building.

All remaining GN Welwyn and Hornsey drivers will need class 717 traction training.

*Orpington Thameslink drivers will need to learn to Welwyn Garden City.

*Ashford will need to be opened as a traincrew depot, which will need a building sourced for this. I don't know if this is planned to be a new one or use/sharing of an existing one. Ashford drivers will need route training Ashford to Cambridge.

Any route knowledge I've mentioned may also require diversionary routes to be learned as well.

The items marked with asterisks * have been put back 6 to 12 months than originally envisaged. Whilst it is indeed sensible to ramp up the service in the peak from 20tph to 22tph, and then 24tph, to allow the increased flow of trains to bed in, I believe it is really the Herculean logistical task of training that has been realised as the limiting factor.


In the above examples of route learning needing to be done, most involve travelling a fair distance before reaching the route required to be learned, and all involve avoiding travelling with newly qualified drivers, or drivers who have recently had an incident, as they aren't allowed anyone in the cab with them. Avoiding the cabs being too full of route learners is another thing to take into account, and add to that few trains running through London Bridge currently.


Previously, there has been a great deal of training up until this point also: all existing Thameslink drivers were trained on class 700s; most GN drivers trained on class 387s, and a fair amount of GN drivers on class 700s.
A number of Driver Instructors/Trainers have needed training up.

In the future, as well as all the above, ATO training will need to take place.


This has been, and will continue to be, a HUGE task. I think the 'finished product' will run okay mostly - better than most people's predictions, but in the short to medium term, the resourcing of a driver with the requisite route knowledge, or the swapping of drivers half way with the potential for delays to knock-on, will be the likely cause of problems.

 

[Stew998]

I am certain that it is all going to be a terrible nightmare for some and heaven for others. People from Medway will be very dissappointed to be losing their semi fast Charing Cross services in particular, along with some Southern services also being replaced by Thameslink.

Passengers North and South of London will be jumping for joy about new direct services and the re-introduction of London Bridge - Balckfriars

Judging by responses to Southern and Thameslink's incessant tweets announcing RailPlan20/20 and the all new timetable there's very little evidence of people jumping for joy North or South of London, hopping mad maybe...

I'm amazed by the number of people, especially regular commuters, who are still unaware of the scale of the impending changes. From a personal point of view the timetable seems an improvement albeit some existing Southern (377) services will be downgraded to Thameslink 700s with different starting points which may impact seat availability.

 

[Starmill]

even if you miss the Monday - Saturday cross platform connection

Strictly speaking this isn't a 'connection'. 6 minutes is less than the minimum connection time at Preston. As such very few people will even know about this.

 

[totally]

Your right.......it isn't difficult. But believe me there are going to be an awful lot of angry people! Firstly, Bradford (my home city) will be losing an hourly direct service which we have enjoyed for over 30 years. Secondly....when the train to Blackpool from Bradford Interchange does arrive it has already picked up passengers in Leeds and York.....so getting a seat is a challenge. Finally......if you are going for a day away to Blackpool which thousands of people from West Yorkshire do each year you will be looking at roughly an hour and a half travel time extention.....with a change of train thrown in.

No passengers from York, the Blackpool York service has now become Preston to Leeds. Try getting from Blackpool to York, it is often quicker now via Manchester!!

 

[Sunset route]

In respect of the Thameslink core which seems to have the highest number of doom and gloom pundits, I think there will be a few hiccups whilst they are getting used to the impact of certain patterns of disruption and learning how the Traffic Management System can best be used to sequence trains and mitigate their knock-on effects through the core. Then, following some adjustments to the timetable, things will improve somewhat. This will probably be repeated in December 2018, May 2019 and December 2019 as the rest of the routes are introduced taking core throughput up to it's full service capacity.

What traffic management system lol it doesn’t exist any further out than the central core section and certainly not far enough out to have a direct influence on the flighting or trains for the core. ours is still sitting in some Japanese CAD program somewhere.

 

[JonathanH]

What traffic management system lol it doesn’t exist any further out than the central core section and certainly not far enough out to have a direct influence on the flighting or trains for the core. ours is still sitting in some Japanese CAD program somewhere.

I'm looking forward to seeing how Redhill copes when any of the trains between 0725 and 0745 don't arrive on time. It looks quite tight to me with services from both sides of the North Downs feeding into the mix.

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/advanced/RDH/2018/05/22/0723-0747?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

 

[AM9]

What traffic management system lol it doesn’t exist any further out than the central core section and certainly not far enough out to have a direct influence on the flighting or trains for the core. ours is still sitting in some Japanese CAD program somewhere.

I presume that it will be installed on all entry points by the time 24tph starts next year.

 

[Fisherman80]

Your quite right on this even though many on here seem to want to play this issue down for some reason, even more annoying is the fact that this route isn't part of the North West Electrification Scheme yet it appears more through trains from Blackpool/Barrow etc, to Manchester are being retained at the expense of this service

I also think the new TPE service on the North TPE route will be a right shambles.

I'm presuming that a few of the people who have replied do not live in Bradford 47802.

I think I may have got the extra 90 minutes of travelling time wrong but that is not the point.

My main point is losing a direct hourly service to Blackpool which during the holiday season is madness.

Apart from a better Sunday service and direct trains to London from Bradford Interchange......the service has got worse over the last 15 or 20 or so years.

Hourly service to Liverpool......gone.
2 hourly service to Scarborough....gone.
Half hourly service to York reduced to hourly.
And now the direct trains to Blackpool (Apart from Sundays) have gone!

 

[northernchris]

I'm presuming that a few of the people who have replied do not live in Bradford 47802.

I think I may have got the extra 90 minutes of travelling time wrong but that is not the point.

My main point is losing a direct hourly service to Blackpool which during the holiday season is madness.

Apart from a better Sunday service and direct trains to London from Bradford Interchange......the service has got worse over the last 15 or 20 or so years.

Hourly service to Liverpool......gone.
2 hourly service to Scarborough....gone.
Half hourly service to York reduced to hourly.
And now the direct trains to Blackpool (Apart from Sundays) have gone!

Whilst it isn't a great situation this is only temporary and I do think its the right thing to do to ensure as much capacity as possible is provided into Leeds and Manchester during the peaks. There's quite a few stations who lose at least one peak service to/from Leeds or Manchester and it is these flows which need to be protected as much as possible in that these are daily commuters and not occasional leisure travellers. I think we need to accept Northern are in for a rough few months however subject to stock and infrastructure being ready for December 2019 they'll be a huge improvement to present - especially for Bradford

 

[Fisherman80]

Whilst it isn't a great situation this is only temporary and I do think its the right thing to do to ensure as much capacity as possible is provided into Leeds and Manchester during the peaks. There's quite a few stations who lose at least one peak service to/from Leeds or Manchester and it is these flows which need to be protected as much as possible in that these are daily commuters and not occasional leisure travellers. I think we need to accept Northern are in for a rough few months however subject to stock and infrastructure being ready for December 2019 they'll be a huge improvement to present - especially for Bradford

It's not all bad news......at least there are later departures to Lancaster from my other local station in Bingley.....they will come in very handy for a last minute trip to The Lake District!

 

[gingerheid]

Being one of the doom-mongers re the GN part of Thameslink... today happens a lot. How would the new timetable have coped? There'd have been trains stuck in the core?

 

[JonathanH]

Being one of the doom-mongers re the GN part of Thameslink... today happens a lot. How would the new timetable have coped? There'd have been trains stuck in the core?

There are almost certainly contingency plans for such an event - the spare platforms at Kentish Town, Cricklewood sidings, Hornsey are all places to send the trains to in order to clear the core.