Public Health England COVID-19 Data

[RomeoCharlie71]

I couldn't find a suitable thread for this, so have created a new one.

It seems that for the second day this week, there will be no PHE data published today owing to "technical difficulties".

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1293922261729148930

Owing to technical difficulties with data processing, the England and UK cases and tests data is not expected to be updated today. The #COVID19 data dashboard is available here: http://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

The media are reporting an outbreak of approximately 300 positive cases in a Northampton sandwich factory (which will bump the positive case data up significantly). Some replies to the PHE tweet are presuming the "technical difficulties" are just delaying the presumed high case numbers linked to this.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What would be gained by delaying it?

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

What would be gained by delaying it?

I have absolutely no clue. Very little, if anything.

 

[Mag_seven]

Some replies to the PHE tweet are presuming the "technical difficulties" are just delaying the presumed high case numbers linked to this.

I suspect it really is just a technical problem but that doesn't stop the Twitter mob seeing "conspiracy" in everything.

 

[Class 33]

Well, today's figures have been published now. And today's deaths just 18. Yesterday it was 20. This of course taking into account that now only deaths within 28 days of positive Coronavirus test are being counted and published. But nevertheless, these are very low numbers of daily Coronavirus deaths we're down to now.

 

[adc82140]

There are some in the field of epidemiology who think it should be 21 days. But that would kick up a whole new set of problems with the long stay ventilated patients.

 

[A Challenge]

There are some in the field of epidemiology who think it should be 21 days. But that would kick up a whole new set of problems with the long stay ventilated patients.

Surely saying that if hospitalised it is up to 21 days from discharge (or before), or otherwise 21 days, would be a good solution to this?

 

[Yew]

I suspect it really is just a technical problem but that doesn't stop the Twitter mob seeing "conspiracy" in everything.

It's likely some enhancements to their software systems.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Presented without comment:

Government quietly drops 1.3m Covid tests from England tally

Exclusive: Double counting raises fresh questions about accuracy of testing figures

www.theguardian.com

The government has quietly removed 1.3m coronavirus tests from its data because of double counting, raising fresh questions about the accuracy of the testing figures.

In the government’s daily coronavirus update on Wednesday, it announced it had lowered the figure for “tests made available” by about 10% and discontinued the metric.

An update on the page read: “An adjustment of -1,308,071 has been made to the historic data for the ‘tests made available’ metric. The adjustments have been made as a result of more accurate data collection and reporting processes recently being adopted within pillar 2.”

The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) said the changes affected data reported between 14 May and 12 August. It said there had been “a double-counting of test kits that had been dispatched”, “which had not been removed from the lab’s processed data”.

The changes were made after it was discovered fewer in-person pillar 2 tests had been carried out than originally reported, while more tests had been sent to NHS trusts and care homes. The problem was acknowledged by the DHSC on 6 July but the tests were removed from the data on 12 August.

Pillar 2 tests involve all testing done outside hospitals through commercial companies. For example, swab tests carried out at satellite testing centres, such as care homes, and home swab testing kits delivered by post.

Justin Madders, the shadow health minister, said the data on testing had been “shambolic” for months.

“To now retrospectively adjust the testing figures by 1.3m overnight – without explanation – is the latest in a long line of chaotic failings by the government on testing,” he said.

“How can we be confident that testing and tracing is working properly when basic data on the number of tests is obviously so flawed? Ministers need to get a grip of this as a matter of urgency.”

 

[Domh245]

I feel like that story is less of an issue than is being made out. They've removed 1.3 million tests from the historic "capacity" figures (out of a cumulative total capacity of 24.3 million to 3/8 - 5% of cumulative capacity), not actual tests. I'm fairly sure this is fixing the odd accounting from earlier in the pandemic, where a postal test sent, and the same test processed was counted as two, like when individual gloves were counted as single items of PPE. A 'damning' indictment on what was happening earlier in the year where there was a rush to hit arbitrary testing capacities and number, but nothing sinister happening now, and it's good that it's been corrected.

 

[adc82140]

Next I'd like them to count new cases as actual new cases, not positive tests returned. Many people will have a second or even third test to see if they have recovered. If any of these come back positive, then it's a "new case".

 

[mailbyrail]

'Nothing sinister' says Domh245.
So let's slip out a small revision with no explanation and hope nobody notices what was a headline figure at one point helping to show how world beating everything was. Even counting tests that might have been sent out but not carried out in the headline figure was creative accounting at it's most imaginative.
Whatever it is, it's another indication of the complete chaos this has descended into.
Nothing is believable in any of the announcements.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

England are now only publishing their testing data (i.e. number of tests conducted) weekly now, which is a shame, as the percentage of tests returned positive is one of the more "meaningful" numbers to keep track of.

 

[adc82140]

You can still work it out from the dashboard though. Today was about 1200 cases from 190000 tested, equating to roughly 0.6%

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

You can still work it out from the dashboard though. Today was about 1200 cases from 190000 tested, equating to roughly 0.6%

Yeah, that's true - I hadn't looked that far yet!

Edit: The 190,434 listed on the dashboard is actually from Thursday 20th, so not updating daily.