"Rail pain piles up as five operators totter" - The Times, April 22nd 2018

[KashmireHawker]

Having got a student pack from The Times (£26 for the year is pretty good), here is the full article stating the "rail pain" we are currently facing for a number of reasons:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...241.302194004.1524430304-686787357.1524430304 (Subscription needed)

Rail pain piles up as five operators totter​

Even as delays soar, a stand-off with Network Rail may force train operators to scale back planned improvements

Mark Hookham and John Collingridge
April 22 2018, 12:01am, The Sunday Times

Delays are soaring, with performance getting worse in 17 of the 23 rail franchises
DAN KITWOOD

Commuters face misery as two of Britain’s busiest rail operators, South Western and Greater Anglia, are set to break promises to provide new train services to ease overcrowding and cut journey times.

The revelation, which follows a row between train company bosses and Network Rail, is the latest setback for passengers as fears grow about the financial stability of a number of operators.

Critics say four franchises could collapse by the end of the year in addition to Virgin East Coast, which is set to end in weeks after running out of cash.

It comes as a Sunday Times investigation of Britain’s rail network can reveal:

■ Delays are soaring across the network, with performance getting worse in 17 of Britain’s 23 rail franchises. On the lines run by the worst performer — Virgin East Coast — 63% of trains have been late during the past month, according to statistics showing the performance of every train at almost every stop.
■ Many passengers are so fed up they are abandoning train travel and working more days from home. Season ticket use has dropped by 8% in a year, while demand on a Friday has dropped 10% on some commuter routes, sources claim.
■ Train companies are pulling out of franchise competitions. FirstGroup and Italy’s Trenitalia confirmed this weekend they have withdrawn their joint bid from the contest to land the East Midlands franchise, leaving just two bidders.*
■ Problems mount with new trains. The introduction of 70 Hitachi trains in Scotland, costing £370m, is delayed because the “fishbowl” design of their front window means drivers see double at night.

South Western, which serves London, Surrey, Hampshire and Dorset, ran into problems when Network Rail raised concerns over its proposed new timetable.

A joint venture called First MTR took over the franchise last August, pledging to introduce 90 extra trains as part of a £1.2bn investment to ease overcrowding. After an £800m upgrade of Waterloo station, the operator planned to boost peak capacity for London this December by almost 30%, with 36 extra peak services into and out of Waterloo.

However, Network Rail warned South Western that track and signal problems on the network would get worse with the proposed big increase in services.

South Western said discussions with Network Rail were “ongoing”, adding: “We have already introduced 150 additional carriages onto the network since taking over last August.” FirstGroup, its co-owner, said the operator is profitable.

Network Rail bosses believe ambitious plans to boost services on the Greater Anglia franchise are also unachievable, sources claim.

The operator has promised to introduce 106 extra carriages and pledged, by May 2019, to run four trains a day between Norwich and London with a journey time of 90 minutes, nearly 30 minutes faster than now. Sources said the “Norwich in 90” pledge was in doubt, although Greater Anglia said: “We don’t anticipate any problems with Network Rail over this. Greater Anglia is meeting all of its franchise commitments and we expect it to continue to do so.”

Weaker than expected passenger revenues could leave some operators vulnerable to collapse if they are unable to introduce extra trains to boost income, sources claim. “We are heading for a real implosion towards the end of the year,” added one executive.

Some critics blame train companies for “over-bidding” for the multibillion-pound franchises and the Department for Transport for awarding contracts without proper scrutiny by Network Rail.

Network Rail said it would be making improvements affecting South Western and Greater Anglia in the next year.

“Passengers are already benefiting from the massive investment our railway has seen in recent years, with new services, more frequent, longer services and new stations and facilities.

“More is coming, with £130m invested each week that will deliver over 6,500 new services in the next few years.”

Delayed passengers ‘held hostage’

Commuters on South Western trains hit out at the poor service, which misses punctuality targets almost two days in every three. “We rely on the trains and we are kind of held hostage,” said Tanya Pilgrim, 45, a solicitor from Hook, Hampshire.

A guard told a reporter last week:”It’s chaos. No one knows whether they are coming or going.”

* = For info, there has been no official word by FirstGroup as of yet on if they are pulling out of the East Midlands contest - of which there is a separate thread on the 2019 Franchise can be seen here: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/east-midlands-franchise-2019.163487/ - that point also doesn't mention Abellio joining the bidding list in February 2018 meaning they'd be 3 bidders remaining if First/Trenitalia withdraw.

 

[furnessvale]

Saw the headline and I thought 5 TOCs were on the point of bankruptcy. Then I saw the content and realised it was a bored hack generating a story.

As for delays, when airlines publish delay statistics for ONE minute I'll sit up and take notice!

 

[Tetchytyke]

I saw the headline and assumed that a couple of TOCs were struggling financially. I'm glad I didn't sign up to read the actual article, what a load of drivel.

Weaker than expected passenger revenues could leave some operators vulnerable to collapse if they are unable to introduce extra trains to boost income, sources claim. “We are heading for a real implosion towards the end of the year,” added one executive.

Hmm. Now I'm no businessman, but if passenger numbers are plataeuing (as they inevitably will do, growth cannot continue forever, one will inevitably reach a point where everyone who wants to travel by train is travelling by train) I don't see how running more trains will generate more revenue.

But I guess it's much easier for the TOCs' management to blame everyone else rather than admit that, quite simply, they paid too much money this time around.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Not much from the RDG at the moment , as you probably guess on "the success of rail" .........despite good efforts all round - in many places , things are not going very well.

 

[gingerheid]

Giving up on trains for regular commuting certainly meets my experience (and I know I'm not the only one...), and I was apparently trying to commute with two of the better companies. I now only use the train once a week.

The whole experience confused me. Over 25% of individual sectors were leading to a delay repay claim. Unless most people aren't claiming surely that's crippling for the TOC?

And... these performance measures... if they are accurate, are they nevertheless misleading? Problems are most likely to happen in rush hour when network capacity is most stretched, and those problems affect a disproportionate percentage of customers.

I don't want to suggest full weighting that would allow TOCs to cancel quiet trains without detriment, but should there be some kind of weighting?

 

[AlterEgo]

Over 25% of individual sectors were leading to a delay repay claim. Unless most people aren't claiming surely that's crippling for the TOC?

The overwhelming majority of delay repay goes unclaimed.

Most delays are caused by non-TOC factors and they are usually reimbursed through Schedule 8 payments from Network Rail (delay attribution is a complex cottage industry!).

 

[gingerheid]

Ah; I see! That makes sense (on both counts).

 

[theironroad]

However, Network Rail warned South Western that track and signal problems on the network would get worse with the proposed big increase in services.

South Western said discussions with Network Rail were “ongoing”, adding: “We have already introduced 150 additional carriages onto the network since taking over last August.” FirstGroup, its co-owner, said the operator is profitable.

All a bit semantic, the 150 additional carriages started to be introduced by stagecoach and as the DfT run the rolling stock programme, neither stagecoach or first group can really take credit.

Rather than saying things will get worse if more trains are introduced, maybe NR should be proactive and invest in maintaining the infrastructure to a decent state, let alone upgrading it. Leaving aside the Waterloo platform extensions, it seems very little investment comes to the swml and associated routes compared with the vast amounts that go to electrification, the wcml and though a separate budget, the eye watering amounts for HS2.

Edit: meant wcml not ecml

 

[theironroad]

Giving up on trains for regular commuting certainly meets my experience (and I know I'm not the only one...), and I was apparently trying to commute with two of the better companies. I now only use the train once a week.

The whole experience confused me. Over 25% of individual sectors were leading to a delay repay claim. Unless most people aren't claiming surely that's crippling for the TOC?

And... these performance measures... if they are accurate, are they nevertheless misleading? Problems are most likely to happen in rush hour when network capacity is most stretched, and those problems affect a disproportionate percentage of customers.

I don't want to suggest full weighting that would allow TOCs to cancel quiet trains without detriment, but should there be some kind of weighting?

Realistically, most people don't have /want the opportunity to only go into the office 1 day a week. Fridays are certainly commuter quieter and would suggest that some people do work remotely or only work Mon to Thurs and have a 3 day weekend every week.

 

[cuccir]

Delays are soaring across the network, with performance getting worse in 17 of Britain’s 23 rail franchises. On the lines run by the worst performer — Virgin East Coast — 63% of trains have been late during the past month, according to statistics showing the performance of every train at almost every stop.

Do The Sunday Times say when these figures are from? It would seem a tad unreasonable if this is data from March 2018 when there was quite a bit of snow-related disruption! Particularly given that four of the five at the top of the list cover some of the most disrupted areas: ECML/WCML north of Carlisle/Newcastle and the cross-pennine routes, while the other (Hull Trains) had a few specific issues with snow-damaged trains.

I commute on a route where I use Virgin East Coast, TPE, Northern or CrossCountry. Since I started doing this in September 2015 I've been genuinely surprised by how easy and reliable my commute has been, so I'm sceptical that 3 of these are listed as among the worst performing TOCs!

 

[gingerheid]

Realistically, most people don't have /want the opportunity to only go into the office 1 day a week.

I now drive the rest of the time. I have to go into London one day a week, and I'll concede that's less drivable (though a relative got fed up with GWR and does it!), though it's also more reliable.

 

[Dr_Intoxicated]

I must admit that a major reason in taking early retirement last year was the commute into Waterloo, I still really enjoyed the job.

A year later my only regret is that I did not do it sooner.

 

[al78]

Saw the headline and I thought 5 TOCs were on the point of bankruptcy. Then I saw the content and realised it was a bored hack generating a story.

As for delays, when airlines publish delay statistics for ONE minute I'll sit up and take notice!

I fail to see what airline delays have to do with rail delays. Even if airlines are worse for delays, that does not make rail delays any less significant.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Not_as_bad_as
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Moral_equivalence

 

[Ianigsy]

Realistically, most people don't have /want the opportunity to only go into the office 1 day a week. Fridays are certainly commuter quieter and would suggest that some people do work remotely or only work Mon to Thurs and have a 3 day weekend every week.

That's exactly what my former head of department used to do. In the office Monday to Thursday and then Friday at home to digest reports, prepare appraisals and general planning.

 

[CentralTrainer]

I fail to see what airline delays have to do with rail delays. Even if airlines are worse for delays, that does not make rail delays any less significant.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Not_as_bad_as
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Moral_equivalence

It’s typical head in the sand enthusiast whatabouttery

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I must admit that a major reason in taking early retirement last year was the commute into Waterloo, I still really enjoyed the job.

A year later my only regret is that I did not do it sooner.

I have to admit that the Thameslink commute eventually broke me , (plus I hated with a passion the last job I did) , I really feel for those stretched souls doing that , with all the other work stresses they have to deal with.

Mind you - with ECML doing so badly (often not their fault) - and hitting 17% RT one day last week , it must be very hard for the staff , let alone the travellers.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The danger is we draw pan UK conclusions from peak hour commuting trends on a couple of TOC's in the South east of England.

There's a lot of stuff happening in the next couple of years especially in the North of England that will make a real difference to the quality of the product and its attractiveness.

 

[aylesbury]

First Group have been the subject of a hostile takeover bid by US based private equity group Apollo so they must think that there is growth to come.On the bad side they are in it for cash made by splitting up the group selling to the highest bidder and not caring about the results for passengers and staff.

 

[furnessvale]

I fail to see what airline delays have to do with rail delays. Even if airlines are worse for delays, that does not make rail delays any less significant.

It’s typical head in the sand enthusiast whatabouttery

Intercity rail and domestic airlines are in direct competition. How can potential customers, who are prepared to spend £100s of millions on fares make valid comparisons if one mode is criticised for being a minute late whilst another mode can call 14 minutes late "right time"?

If that makes me "head in the sand enthusiast whatabouttery", whatever that may be, so be it.

 

[AlterEgo]

Intercity rail and domestic airlines are in direct competition. How can potential customers, who are prepared to spend £100s of millions on fares make valid comparisons if one mode is criticised for being a minute late whilst another mode can call 14 minutes late "right time"?

They are really only in proper competition on a handful of city pairs, which make up a very small fraction of the rail market.

The real competition with the train is the private car.

 

[furnessvale]

They are really only in proper competition on a handful of city pairs, which make up a very small fraction of the rail market.

The real competition with the train is the private car.

Very true. Even more reason that berating rail operators for being ONE minute late is a complete nonsense.

 

[Warwick]

No-one berates a train operator for being one minute late. People berate train operators for being consistently late and cancelling services.

 

[68000]

The real competition with the train is the private car.

There is the problem straight away. You cannot, with any degree of certainty, compare the road journey with the train journey and measure both with a degree of accuracy to 1 minute. It is a nonsense comparison and is only fit for the naive

 

[68000]

No-one berates a train operator for being one minute late. People berate train operators for being consistently late and cancelling services.

Have you read the article?

 

[gingerheid]

Have you read the article?

You don't believe that the despair referred to arises from 1m delays, do you?

Mine didn't. Mine arises from 1 in 4 journeys finishing exactly 58m late, and a further 1 in 4 finishing about 20 mins late. Yes, I might get delayed driving. But as the delay would come on top of a 75m door to door journey instead of a 120m door to door journey I can afford to take the risk.

Out of my last two trips to London (supposed to take ~1h) one journey was 30+ late and one was 90+ late. Planes are not that unreliable even on longer journeys.

That is ludicrously unacceptable, whether in terms of frequency of delay, as a percentage of the journey time, a delay minute per mile... anything. No whataboutery can make it reasonable.

We are probably here because we like trains. But that doesn't mean we should say they are wonderful when they are scandalously awful. It means we should demand they are made to be what they could be and should be.

 

[furnessvale]

Out of my last two trips to London (supposed to take ~1h) one journey was 30+ late and one was 90+ late. Planes are not that unreliable even on longer journeys.

But on average they are, which is why they are allowed to publish "on time" statistics much slacker than rail.

Whataboutthat!

 

[Altfish]

Intercity rail and domestic airlines are in direct competition. How can potential customers, who are prepared to spend £100s of millions on fares make valid comparisons if one mode is criticised for being a minute late whilst another mode can call 14 minutes late "right time"?

If that makes me "head in the sand enthusiast whatabouttery", whatever that may be, so be it.

Unless things have changed dramatically there was no 'pay delay' scheme on airlines. Last internal flight I did was 2-hours delayed...I got a voucher for a cup of tea.

 

[JaJaWa]

Unless things have changed dramatically there was no 'pay delay' scheme on airlines. Last internal flight I did was 2-hours delayed...I got a voucher for a cup of tea.

Only one really is within or to/from the EU. Have to arrive 3/4 hours late with various compensation levels from €300 to €600.

 

[coppercapped]

First Group have been the subject of a hostile takeover bid by US based private equity group Apollo so they must think that there is growth to come.On the bad side they are in it for cash made by splitting up the group selling to the highest bidder and not caring about the results for passengers and staff.

Au contraire...!

Just after the Apollo bid was made an article in the Financial Times suggested that the talk of re-nationalisation of the rail franchises by Jeremy Corbyn et al has depressed the share price of quoted companies with interests in UK rail franchises. The rationale for the Apollo bid was therefore the opposite to what you suggest, that by hiving off/dumping the rail franchises the share price of the remaining part of First Group would recover.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Au contraire...!
Just after the Apollo bid was made an article in the Financial Times suggested that the talk of re-nationalisation of the rail franchises by Jeremy Corbyn et al has depressed the share price of quoted companies with interests in UK rail franchises. The rationale for the Apollo bid was therefore the opposite to what you suggest, that by hiving off/dumping the rail franchises the share price of the remaining part of First Group would recover.

Not to mention First's extensive bus interests in the USA (Greyhound etc), which is likely to attract far more US interest than UK rail.