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Rail Privatisation - not the cause of passenger growth

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quantinghome

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Latest article in Railnews:
"Demand for rail has soared since the mid-1990s, and politicians in favour of privatisation have routinely claimed that breaking up British Ral and bringing in the private sector was the main reason."
However, research by the ITC shows this growth has been driven mostly by structural changes in living and working patterns:
https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2018/11/19-most-likely-causes-of-rail.html

The article continues:
The ITC, though, says that a greater percentage of the population is now travelling by train because of ‘major economic and spatial changes’, which have prompted a 58 per cent rise in the number of passengers travelling by train to work, or for other business purposes.

The places where people are living have changed, and there have also been ‘significant structural changes to the UK economy’ over the past 25 years.

The report – ‘Wider factors affecting the long-term growth in rail travel’ – was researched by statistics specialists Ian Williams and Kaveh Jahanshahi, who found that major shifts in housing locations and the jobs market have increased the tendency for people to use rail.

Increases since the 1990s have been accompanied by a rise in the general population of 15 per cent, but the number of rail journeys doubled over the same period, amounting to an increase of 100 per cent.

Changes in the job market have played a part. Many more people work in offices now and fewer in manufacturing, and it is office-based workers who are more likely to commute by train....
This ties in with my experience as a rail passenger before, during and after privatisation. I find that rail travel is no more pleasant, no quicker nor less costly an experience now than in the early 90s, yet there has been huge growth.
 
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Ken H

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From the Independent Transport Commission: "Demand for rail has soared since the mid-1990s, and politicians in favour of privatisation have routinely claimed that breaking up British Ral and bringing in the private sector was the main reason."
However, research by the ITC shows this growth has been driven mostly by structural changes in living and working patterns:
https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2018/11/19-most-likely-causes-of-rail.html

This ties in with my experience as a rail passenger before, during and after privatisation. I find that rail travel is no more pleasant, no quicker nor less costly an experience now than in the early 90s, yet there has been huge growth.

There has been an increase in frequencies on some routes, and the WCML has seen an increase in speed from 110 to 125mph.

Reasons for the increaese
increase in university education meaning kids travel the length of the UK often
People work further from home
road congestion has got a lot worse.

But
Video Conferencing and better comms has reduced travel
As has working from home.
 

74A

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Population growth and more people living in cities has been a big driver. There has also been the move towards people taking more little holidays rather than one or tow long ones per year. Long distance travel is still growing as a result. Commuter traffic has reduced in the last few years as people start to move to a four day week or spend time working from home.

Rail privatisation has bought very little if any benefits. There has been no innovation in the types of tickets available. If anything privatisation has made it worse in that there is not incentive to provide improvements to passengers unless there is an instant return on you investment. Things like WiFi on train has been bought in piecemeal and generally only when franchises have been relet.
 

FenMan

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I'm unconvinced the ITC has asked the right question. Mine would be, "Would BR have been agile enough to change its long established culture of managing decline in order to accommodate and promote increasing passenger demand?"

I have my doubts.
 

6Gman

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I'm unconvinced the ITC has asked the right question. Mine would be, "Would BR have been agile enough to change its long established culture of managing decline in order to accommodate and promote increasing passenger demand?"

I have my doubts.

Probably not with the BR of 1980; but who knows what the BR of 2018 would have looked like?
 

Taunton

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One significant cause of additional passenger numbers is the need to often have two tickets where previously one would do.

Every step of "split ticketing" is now counted as an additional passenger.

The same applies that the various discounted tickets, often the only sensible ones available, don't give through journeys to a final suburban trip, so you end up buying again. That again gets counted as multiple passengers.

It would be interesting to count how many passenger vehicles, and seats, are in the active fleet nowadays, compared to before privatisation and before this rise in usage. My guess would be passenger vehicles remain static, and number of seats has actually fallen.
 

quantinghome

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I'm unconvinced the ITC has asked the right question. Mine would be, "Would BR have been agile enough to change its long established culture of managing decline in order to accommodate and promote increasing passenger demand?"

I have my doubts.

BR's Intercity and Network South-East sectors certainly were not managing decline, and investment was going in to selected regional services e.g. Transpennine. Passenger levels bottomed out in 1982 and grew from then on (apart from during the early 90s recession). 'Managed decline' in later BR days was only going on in rural lines; fears of these being closed by private operators forced the government to include guarantees in the privatisation legislation that there would be no closures. Subsequent improvements post-privatisation have been a continuation of BR's approach, but made more difficult by the fragmentation of the industry albeit with better visibility on future funding.

Likewise with fares, BR did innovate, introducing discount Saver and Advanced tickets ('Apex'). It's inconceivable that BR would not have introduced demand-management based advanced fares in the late 90s as the technology became available. Today's ticketing system is basically what BR had in the mid-90s, but frozen in aspic because attempting any major change nowadays is like trying to herd cats.
 

Mag_seven

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From the Independent Transport Commission: "Demand for rail has soared since the mid-1990s, and politicians in favour of privatisation have routinely claimed that breaking up British Ral and bringing in the private sector was the main reason."
However, research by the ITC shows this growth has been driven mostly by structural changes in living and working patterns:
https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2018/11/19-most-likely-causes-of-rail.html

This ties in with my experience as a rail passenger before, during and after privatisation. I find that rail travel is no more pleasant, no quicker nor less costly an experience now than in the early 90s, yet there has been huge growth.

Now what was I saying over on the "Persistent railway myths, misunderstandings etc." thread:

That the increase in rail passenger numbers is because of privatisation. I would argue there would have been an increase regardless of how the railways are structured due to an increase in population and more mobility generally.
 

Chris Butler

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This is a classic 'fake news' post.

The title of the post is "Rail Privatisation - not the cause of passenger growth". The research in question does not demonstrate that or even purport to demonstrate that.

It then attributes to the ITC a statement which they never made. The statement "... research by the ITC shows this growth has been driven mostly by structural changes in living and working patterns" was not made by the ITC, but by the hack journalist who wrote this story.

The report itself is crystal clear that it only tried to identify external factors that likely influence rail travel and did not even look at 'supply' factors (meaning the frequency, speed or more general attractiveness of the train service). They made no attempt to quantify the impact of the various factors on the actual level of rail travel. They say it themselves:

The focus of the report is, therefore, the identification of influential factors external to the rail industry and as such it does not cover all the factors affecting demand for rail travel such as supply.
 

DarloRich

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The statement "... research by the ITC shows this growth has been driven mostly by structural changes in living and working patterns"

but surely anyone with half a brain knows this is the correct statement? I also think that same statement is the cause of a decline Friday commuting!
 
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quantinghome

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The ITC report is clear that factors outside the control of the rail industry have had a significant impact on driving growth. It's reasonable to link this to the ongoing debate about privatisation, particular as certain politicians are all too happy to attribute passenger growth to privatisation (together with stern admonitions about the dangers of returning to 'the bad old days').

From the ITC report:

Meanwhile, official forecasts of total rail passenger kilometres based primarily on factors under the influence of the rail industry (fares, frequency, comfort, etc) seriously underestimated the observed levels of demand over this period. Between the mid-2000s and the early-2010s, for example, growth was nearly 30% higher than forecast (Figure B). The underestimation has been observed across all the main rail markets, except for season ticket sales for journeys to/from London. This suggests that factors outside the immediate control of the rail industry may be playing an important role in driving rail passenger growth, and that issue is the main focus of this study.

upload_2018-11-19_13-21-49.png
 

Chris Butler

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It's reasonable to link this to the ongoing debate about privatisation, particular as certain politicians are all too happy to attribute passenger growth to privatisationView attachment 55646

It is reasonable to link the report to the question of privatisation. It is reasonable to say "Growth in traffic due to more factors than privatisation." . However, it is not true to say "Rail Privatisation - not the cause of passenger growth".

As I mentioned before, it is also misleading to attribute to independent researchers quotes that are actualy those of some website poster.
 

Chris Butler

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but surely anyone with half a brain knows this is the correct statement?

I think anyone with half a brain knows that " this growth has been driven by structural changes in living and working patterns".

However the insertion of the word "mostly" is saying that this impact is larger than the combined impact of traffic congestion, wages, economic activity, train fares, service frequency etc., etc., etc.. I am not sure that that is true (nor am I sure that it is untrue) and I think I have more than half a brain.
 
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mmh

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One significant cause of additional passenger numbers is the need to often have two tickets where previously one would do.

Every step of "split ticketing" is now counted as an additional passenger.

The same applies that the various discounted tickets, often the only sensible ones available, don't give through journeys to a final suburban trip, so you end up buying again. That again gets counted as multiple passengers.

I doubt in the scheme of things the number of people using multiple tickets for a single journey is significant. Very few people will be actively "splitting". There will be some who've realised that end-to-end advance tickets don't always exist, but the numbers will be low.

It would be interesting to count how many passenger vehicles, and seats, are in the active fleet nowadays, compared to before privatisation and before this rise in usage. My guess would be passenger vehicles remain static, and number of seats has actually fallen.

That's an interesting question. I can only think of the areas where I've lived since privatisation, but in those it feels like there might have been more new vehicles introduced than have been withdrawn? I could well be wrong though!

I wonder if there's an easy way to find out?
 

DarloRich

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I think anyone with half a brain knows that " this growth has been driven by structural changes in living and working patterns".

However the insertion of the word "mostly" is saying by this impact is larger than the combined impact of traffic congestion, wages, economic activity, train fares, service frequency etc., etc., etc.. I am not sure that that is true (nor am I sure that it is untrue) and I think I have more than half a brain.

I suspect it is a combination of those factors with the highlighted passage being the most accurate " catch all".

PS i am unsure if i have even half a brain tbh!
 

quantinghome

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As I mentioned before, it is also misleading to attribute to independent researchers quotes that are actualy those of some website poster.

Cheers Chris. I see the first quote in the OP should be attributed to Railnews, now modified. TBH I didn't know what you were talking about at first, then I noticed that a quote had been added by the mods as (I now know) forum rules require links to be accompanied by a quote for the linked source. I have also clarified the source of this second quote.
 
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gazzaa2

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There has been an increase in frequencies on some routes, and the WCML has seen an increase in speed from 110 to 125mph.

Reasons for the increaese
increase in university education meaning kids travel the length of the UK often
People work further from home
road congestion has got a lot worse.

But
Video Conferencing and better comms has reduced travel
As has working from home.

Simply because there's an extra 10 million people in UK than than 25 years ago has to be a big factor. Same reason the roads are a lot busier and doctor surgeries, hospitals etc in urban areas.

There's 2-3 million more people in London alone.
 

mrmartin

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Why are these trends just limited to the UK though - France hasn't seen anywhere near the railway growth despite similar growth in population and similar trends in Paris?
 

quantinghome

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Why are these trends just limited to the UK though - France hasn't seen anywhere near the railway growth despite similar growth in population and similar trends in Paris?

Good question. Can't find any relevant stats, but France have been investing in rail more consistently over decades, so there may be less suppressed demand. Also their push on local transport has tended to be trams so commuter growth outside Paris may be seen on other modes.
 

Gems

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Of course it isn't down to privatisation. You can see the reason over a period of years when some commuter trains that are busy become less so, and slightly later ones that used to be quiet become busier.

It is all down to working patterns and trends. People are commuting silly distances because they cannot live near work due to housing costs. You can even see this at work with schools and school kids. Meanwhile I have noticed a remarkable drop in commuter traffic to London. Are people working from home more?

I mean why would privatisation create more traffic? Do people sit there thinking "Oh, I must travel to work on the train these days because Arriva are so good at putting up the fares" The train into a city is no better now than it was twenty years ago when I started, in fact it is worse, because the more trains they try to run, the more chaotic when something goes wrong. People criticise British Rail. But British Rail gave you the HST which is still going strong. British Rail was good in comparison to how it was starved of funds. It is selective memory syndrome, and the more the politicians tell us all how wonderful privatisation is, the more we believe it. I remember news articles in the early 80's saying how the DMU's were getting old and needed replacing. The 144's that replaced them are even older now. So much for privatisation. Everything is owned by leasing companies, it's ridiculous and hideously expensive.
 

Bevan Price

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I'm unconvinced the ITC has asked the right question. Mine would be, "Would BR have been agile enough to change its long established culture of managing decline in order to accommodate and promote increasing passenger demand?"

I have my doubts.

Yes - BR would theoretically had the ability to adapt to passenger growth.

But - no - the treasury /DfT would not have allowed BR to obtain enough stock to cater for increased growth. They would probably have insisted on even bigger fare rises to suppress passenger growth. Then - as now, the treasury/DfT can be almost regarded as a menace to UK railways, almost devoid of any long-term vision.
 

Gems

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Yes - BR would theoretically had the ability to adapt to passenger growth.

But - no - the treasury /DfT would not have allowed BR to obtain enough stock to cater for increased growth. They would probably have insisted on even bigger fare rises to suppress passenger growth. Then - as now, the treasury/DfT can be almost regarded as a menace to UK railways, almost devoid of any long-term vision.
Absolutely. They always are a menace, yet people hang on to every word they mutter and think they must be right. BR was starved of funds something shocking, yet still managed to make people smile with the HST. and ask yourself this. "Did British rail ever cancel every Dalesrail service throughout a whole summer like Arriva have"? Yet they have the nerve to go ask for more money.
 

tbtc

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Likewise with fares, BR did innovate, introducing discount Saver and Advanced tickets ('Apex'). It's inconceivable that BR would not have introduced demand-management based advanced fares in the late 90s as the technology became available. Today's ticketing system is basically what BR had in the mid-90s, but frozen in aspic because attempting any major change nowadays is like trying to herd cats.

BR had the flexibility to increase fares whenever they wanted to (e.g. more than one rise per year).

BR had the flexibility to increase fares by significantly more than inflation and to target certain areas to pay much more (rather than a simple RPI+1% rise applying to virtually all lines).

Privatisation was responsible for a lot of "freezing in aspic" (e.g. I doubt very much that BR would keep running all the parliamentary services that still exist, they'd have chopped them years ago, but private TOCs have franchise commitments that they must adhere to, so no scope to make the kind of changes that BR used to do without any consultation).

So it seems a bit unfair to criticise private TOCs for not evolving the fare system, when their hands are tied by the Government (in a way that BR didn't suffer).

A lot of the "privatised" railway is actually controlled tighter by the Government than it ever was thirty years ago.

Simply because there's an extra 10 million people in UK than than 25 years ago has to be a big factor. Same reason the roads are a lot busier and doctor surgeries, hospitals etc in urban areas.

There's 2-3 million more people in London alone.

I think that a significant proportion of those "ten million" are pensioners, given increased life expectancy and the "Baby Boomer" generation now retiring.

The number of economically active people (i.e. the commuter base) hasn't had the same significant increase - if anything we need all of these people to pay the increasing burden of pensions and healthcare for the Baby Boomers.

Underfunded GP surgeries are due to Austerity though.

Good question. Can't find any relevant stats, but France have been investing in rail more consistently over decades, so there may be less suppressed demand. Also their push on local transport has tended to be trams so commuter growth outside Paris may be seen on other modes.

I think that, if we want to be fair about rail privatisation, we should be looking at comparable things. Such as:

1. Heavy rail in Northern Ireland (which wasn't privatised)
2. National Express coaches (if the jump in rail use is only down to population growth and people travelling longer distances then you'd expect the same increase in demand for coaches)
3. Comparable foreign railways (France seems a good example, much as some people on here want to compare everything to Switzerland!)
4. Network Rail (has the public sector infrastructure provider seen the same efficiencies/ improvements?)

Only then can we strip out the causality/ correlation

I'm trying to keep an open mind - if nationalisation is better at delivering improvements then I'm all for it - but I'm more focussed on delivering improvements than I am hung up on public/private - if Stagecoach can deliver an efficient service at lower cost to the taxpayer then I'm perfectly relaxed about them getting a share of my ticket revenue.

I mean why would privatisation create more traffic? Do people sit there thinking "Oh, I must travel to work on the train these days because Arriva are so good at putting up the fares"

Well, private TOCs have better incentives to run reliable services, they have better incentives to market their trains more, they have better incentives to attract and retain passengers, they have better incentives to reduce costs, they have better incentive to run the types of services that bring in more revenue (i.e. simple half hourly clock face routes rather than a random assortment of services that provide an esoteric combination of direct journeys but are confusing for intermediate passengers) etc.

We might sniff at all the money they seem to spend regularly repainting trains but if it turns sufficient heads to attract sufficient passengers then presumably it's worth it for them. The same was true of British Rail.

Absolutely. They always are a menace, yet people hang on to every word they mutter and think they must be right. BR was starved of funds something shocking, yet still managed to make people smile with the HST. and ask yourself this. "Did British rail ever cancel every Dalesrail service throughout a whole summer like Arriva have"? Yet they have the nerve to go ask for more money.

In fairness to British Rail, they would never have cancelled every Dalesrail service throughout a whole summer - they've have closed the Settle and Carlisle thirty years ago (and they would have got away with it if it wasn't for that pesky meddling Portillo).
 

tasky

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Fortunately we have our own control study for rail privatisation - Northern Ireland. Same sort of passenger growth as GB, but was never privatised.

A huge number of interrelated factors will affect passenger growth. Some of those will be under wilful human control, others won't be.

You'd have to discard everything you know about what drives passenger numbers of a particular route to somehow attribute growth across the system to privatisation. It's simply more complicated than that.
 

Master29

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Why are these trends just limited to the UK though - France hasn't seen anywhere near the railway growth despite similar growth in population and similar trends in Paris?
If we`re talking recent decades then probably not but France has had high speed travel for much longer than us, which may indicate it had it`s high speed rail boom if you like much earlier than us. I`m talking well over 125 here so that could, and I do say could be a factor.
 

Gems

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In fairness to British Rail, they would never have cancelled every Dalesrail service throughout a whole summer - they've have closed the Settle and Carlisle thirty years ago (and they would have got away with it if it wasn't for that pesky meddling Portillo).

And why did BR want to close it? Which government starved them of money? Let's not kid ourselves here, If Margret Thatcher had been in power three years ago when the hillside at Eden Brow slipped away, it would have been closed. It is only because we live in a time where people are more environmentally aware and realise closing railways is a bad idea, that the concept has been shelved.
 

RLBH

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One significant cause of additional passenger numbers is the need to often have two tickets where previously one would do.

Every step of "split ticketing" is now counted as an additional passenger.

The same applies that the various discounted tickets, often the only sensible ones available, don't give through journeys to a final suburban trip, so you end up buying again. That again gets counted as multiple passengers.

It would be interesting to count how many passenger vehicles, and seats, are in the active fleet nowadays, compared to before privatisation and before this rise in usage. My guess would be passenger vehicles remain static, and number of seats has actually fallen.
There has also been growth in passenger-miles, which you'd expect to see more or less constant if the growth was caused entirely by split ticketing. In fact, the average Briton is travelling more miles by train now than at any time since before the Second World War, maybe even the First World War - it's a little while since I looked at the figures.
 
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Wales & Borders is a case in point of passenger numbers growing massively in spite of the operator. The much maligned ATW years provided for no growth, no new rolling stock, featured Pacers heavily and yet the numbers kept rising. It'll be interesting to see how TfW affects passenger numbers once new trains and services start.
 

Edders23

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Here is some anecdotal observations

25 years ago where i live the population was mainly local working in local businesses and factories. The council which since 1974 operates from a town 20 miles away undertook a policy of encouraging factories and businesses to close or relocate with a promise of guaranteed planning for housing .

One business applied 3 times to convert part of their site into an industrial estate creating a smaller production site for their needs. refused 3 times result business closed jobs lost and a large housing estate now occupies the site

25 years on traffic levels in the town have tripled the A1 now is at a standstill in the mornings as thousands of cars pour onto it heading for Peterborough station (and other places) in the morning and the local station has more than doubled it's footfall in the last 25 years despite services being very poor in terms of punctuality and over crowding. The locals left have to drive or commute to Oakham, Corby or Peterborough to work some of which is by bus or train

The town has become a commuter town where people live but are not part of the community but this has brought about a huge increase in commuting some of it by rail

and we have the prospect of another 2000 houses being built.

People nowadays live long distances away from their place of work which has led to a huge expansion of travel by all means. BR was hamstrung by constant government refusals to finance new rolling stock which only changed once there was the prospect of nice high paying jobs for politicians on the boards of companies making money out of the railways. This is what has enabled us to have a large fleet of modern passenger trains and by and large we do have a good quality fleet just not quite large enough
 

mpthomson

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And why did BR want to close it? Which government starved them of money? Let's not kid ourselves here, If Margret Thatcher had been in power three years ago when the hillside at Eden Brow slipped away, it would have been closed. It is only because we live in a time where people are more environmentally aware and realise closing railways is a bad idea, that the concept has been shelved.


You have zero evidence for your assertion about closure of the S&C in this post, and your last sentence makes no sense at all if your previous sentence is correct (which I highly doubt).

You're trying to put an 80's view of the country and rail system onto a 2010's issue. No historical PM would govern in the same way now that they did when they were in power, from whatever party, as circumstances/economy/world politics are totally different. The S&C was far more vulnerable to closure in the mid 80s than it would be now.
 
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