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Rail services to be increased on May 18th

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Silverlinky

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Interesting that West Coast South (a route I know very well) , - is delivering more journeys - but something like 35% of man line business comes from WFJ / Bushey and Harrow to Euston , so maybe people who have to travel from these places are going AC versus DC / Bakerloo.
Judging by passenger counts today that figure is around 60%, the northern stations like northampton, Milton Keynes etc have seen very little increase in passenger numbers, Watford and Harrow however it’s a different story. I guess the DC and Bakerloo are running a reduced service too.
 
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Horizon22

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Judging by passenger counts today that figure is around 60%, the northern stations like northampton, Milton Keynes etc have seen very little increase in passenger numbers, Watford and Harrow however it’s a different story. I guess the DC and Bakerloo are running a reduced service too.

Ties in with what I'vebeen thinking for a while. Outer London services might increase whilst from the Home Counties they won't - probably due to the general demographics and employment types of those residents being slightly different. Those in the home counties more likely to continue to be able (and perhaps encouraged) to work from home. Longer distance travel might see slightly increase demand, but there will likely be a more substantial increase from places like Harrow, Dartford, Croydon, Romford to name a few.
 

Bald Rick

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Not sure about that on some Tube services. Especially the Central line.

In addition suggestions for locking down "London" aren't particularly sensible considering the amount of services that cross the boundaries; many suburban services have an origin outside London. TfL (the tube specially) is going to have a almost impossible time. You can't realistically socially distance and how do you enforce it? Stop people boarding at a certain threshold - How is that fair to people further down the line? Restrict passengers coming into the station - so now you have crowds outside stations? Enforce a quota system - who sets those rules and what would they be? Add extra trains - but what if demand continues to be focussed around the peak? Do we prevent people boarding trains with a first-come-first serve.

Lots of questions that haven't been asked much before, besides possibly the Olympics "demand management" system but its a poor comparison.

Oh those questions have been asked - just not on these pages!
 

matt_world2004

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Euston station was dead when I went through it at 6:20pm today there was about 15 people in total
 

gc4946

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On long distance services could there be a policy where tickets can only be sold with compulsory seat reservations?
It means tickets issued will be restricted to the number of available seats on board - maybe 1 person per bay of 2 seats in standard class to maintain social distancing.
 

Huntergreed

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On long distance services could there be a policy where tickets can only be sold with compulsory seat reservations?
It means tickets issued will be restricted to the number of available seats on board - maybe 1 person per bay of 2 seats in standard class to maintain social distancing.
That would definitely make a lot of sense, and one per table of two/four perhaps
 

Bald Rick

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On long distance services could there be a policy where tickets can only be sold with compulsory seat reservations?
It means tickets issued will be restricted to the number of available seats on board - maybe 1 person per bay of 2 seats in standard class to maintain social distancing.


It seems that reservations are compulsory on all Avanti services next week if Real Train Times is correct
 

I13

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It seems that reservations are compulsory on all Avanti services next week if Real Train Times is correct
Good spot! I wonder how that'll be managed. They've been wanting to go that route for a while, haven't they - if true, I wonder if they'll ever change back if/when social distancing ends and normality resumes? If substantiated, probably worthy of a new thread..
 

I13

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Separately, on an Avanti Pendolino today there was a message on the door displays that coach C was for staff only.
 

Bletchleyite

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Different areas, different demand. I've heard that a LNW train arrived at Euston this morning with approximately 190 passengers on board. That doesn't sound a lot for a 12 car with 700 seats but its way in excess of Shapps "10% capacity".

I'm putting money on the fact that about 180 of those 190 were crammed into the front 4.

That's one reason for me favouring compulsory reservations - not only does it control numbers but also spread people out properly.
 

Bletchleyite

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Good spot! I wonder how that'll be managed. They've been wanting to go that route for a while, haven't they - if true, I wonder if they'll ever change back if/when social distancing ends and normality resumes? If substantiated, probably worthy of a new thread..

I'm not aware that Avanti do necessarily want to go that way. Virgin certainly did. If anything FirstGroup seem to favour walk-ups - Advances are far harder to find on GWR than the WCML.

In this context it makes a lot of sense (and is probably a useful experiment). I hope they make it easier for walk-on passengers to get a reservation, though, e.g. season ticket holders, perhaps using something like XC's Ten Minute Reservations - or maybe just via Twitter?

Edit: from a quick clickabout, it seems LNER is doing the same, but not presently GWR, nor EMT, nor TPE, nor any of the commuter operations.
 

Silverlinky

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Longer distance operators could go that way pretty easily, the majority of their travellers are accustomed to buying cheap tickets with attached seat reservations.

Not sure how it would work for the morning commuters at Bushey going into London though.

Sooner or later the public are going to have to use a bit of common sense though.....who could police a reservation system on a commuter train? Like Bletchleyite says, who could stop 180 people from being in the front coach just because its nearer the barriers on arrival into Euston? Who could stop passengers from joining a train that was already 20% full?
Can you imagine the sheer numbers of staff that would be needed, at every station (some of them not managed by the operator), on every train (when conductors have been told to limit interaction with the public), I just don't see how it can work.....other than for the passengers to self police! If the train is busy wait for the next one, if theres someone in a seat don't plonk yourself down next to them. Don't all congregate around the door as the train is pulling in, etc etc. TOC's and staff can not be everywhere and deal with everything.
 

3rd rail land

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Longer distance operators could go that way pretty easily, the majority of their travellers are accustomed to buying cheap tickets with attached seat reservations.

Not sure how it would work for the morning commuters at Bushey going into London though.

Sooner or later the public are going to have to use a bit of common sense though.....who could police a reservation system on a commuter train? Like Bletchleyite says, who could stop 180 people from being in the front coach just because its nearer the barriers on arrival into Euston? Who could stop passengers from joining a train that was already 20% full?
Can you imagine the sheer numbers of staff that would be needed, at every station (some of them not managed by the operator), on every train (when conductors have been told to limit interaction with the public), I just don't see how it can work.....other than for the passengers to self police! If the train is busy wait for the next one, if theres someone in a seat don't plonk yourself down next to them. Don't all congregate around the door as the train is pulling in, etc etc. TOC's and staff can not be everywhere and deal with everything.
People won't buy advances for commuter routes/trains as they are not used to doing that and it will be impossible to enforce change on such a large number of people.
It'll have to simply be advice and hope people follow it. As you say it would require far too many staff to actually enforce.
 

I13

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I'm not aware that Avanti do necessarily want to go that way. Virgin certainly did. If anything FirstGroup seem to favour walk-ups - Advances are far harder to find on GWR than the WCML.
Fair point - my comment was based on my vague prior that Avanti is basically the same company with the same people, all the way up to the MD. Very much an assumption though and I think you're right that they have yet to take a position like Virgin did. That said, I'll see your FirstGroup and raise you Trenitalia...
 

I13

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People won't buy advances for commuter routes/trains as they are not used to doing that and it will be impossible to enforce change on such a large number of people.
As for Avanti, London - NW/W Midlands is one thing, but as is always raised when compulsory reservations comes up, what about the Coventry corridor, what about Wigan to Warrington, etc. - granted, circumstances have certainly changed.
 

Bletchleyite

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As for Avanti, London - NW/W Midlands is one thing, but as is always raised when compulsory reservations comes up, what about the Coventry corridor, what about Wigan to Warrington, etc. - granted, circumstances have certainly changed.

There are plenty of LNR services on the Coventry corridor. Wigan-Warrington I'll give you, though I suppose at a massive push you could travel via Liverpool or Manchester.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Judging by passenger counts today that figure is around 60%, the northern stations like northampton, Milton Keynes etc have seen very little increase in passenger numbers, Watford and Harrow however it’s a different story. I guess the DC and Bakerloo are running a reduced service too.
I imagine Avanti WC are running around empty so would it not make sense for AWC to run some Rugby, MKC, EUS services so LNW could free up capacity for other stations
 

Peter Mugridge

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We are spending a lot of time and energy on several threads talking about adjusting to permanently restricted rail and other public transport capacity, but if we look at what the new five level alert system actually says, when we drop to level 2 there will be no or minimal social distancing measures. Even just dropping to level 3 indicates a gradual reduction in social distancing measures. I have yet to see any mention of that on this forum ( although I should add the caveat that I don't read 100% of the threads; I simply don't have time for that! )

It follows, therefore, that the capacity issues with public transport at the moment are temporary - although of course we do not know how long that will apply for. The important point is, it is not permanent. We should not, therefore, be talking about the issues as if they are permanent.

An image of the Government chart is below, along with the relevant quotes underneath it:


1589406837747.png

Level 3 - A Covid-19 epidemic in general circulation.

Gradual relaxing of restrictions and social distancing measures.

Level 4 - Covid-19 is present in the UK but the number of cases and transmission is low.

No or minimal social distancing measures; enhanced testing, tracing, monitoring and screening.
 

MDB1images

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We are spending a lot of time and energy on several threads talking about adjusting to permanently restricted rail and other public transport capacity, but if we look at what the new five level alert system actually says, when we drop to level 2 there will be no or minimal social distancing measures. Even just dropping to level 3 indicates a gradual reduction in social distancing measures. I have yet to see any mention of that on this forum ( although I should add the caveat that I don't read 100% of the threads; I simply don't have time for that! )

It follows, therefore, that the capacity issues with public transport at the moment are temporary - although of course we do not know how long that will apply for. The important point is, it is not permanent. We should not, therefore, be talking about the issues as if they are permanent.

An image of the Government chart is below, along with the relevant quotes underneath it:


View attachment 77871

Agree, very important to remember.
 

carlberry

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We are spending a lot of time and energy on several threads talking about adjusting to permanently restricted rail and other public transport capacity, but if we look at what the new five level alert system actually says, when we drop to level 2 there will be no or minimal social distancing measures. Even just dropping to level 3 indicates a gradual reduction in social distancing measures. I have yet to see any mention of that on this forum ( although I should add the caveat that I don't read 100% of the threads; I simply don't have time for that! )

It follows, therefore, that the capacity issues with public transport at the moment are temporary - although of course we do not know how long that will apply for. The important point is, it is not permanent. We should not, therefore, be talking about the issues as if they are permanent.

An image of the Government chart is below, along with the relevant quotes underneath it:


View attachment 77871
It's a very good point, however I can't see we can ever get there. The chart dosent mention the availability of a vaccine or a treatment so we have to assume the situation is as it is now in which case there are a lot of areas where the above statement is true (i.e. that there are a low number of cases). However most of those areas are still in lockdown (i.e. rural Scotland/Wales) and even if they're not you wont find may people willing to drop the social distancing idea, because the Government has spent the last 7 weeks scaring the s**! out of everybody promoting it!
 

yorksrob

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It's a very good point, however I can't see we can ever get there. The chart dosent mention the availability of a vaccine or a treatment so we have to assume the situation is as it is now in which case there are a lot of areas where the above statement is true (i.e. that there are a low number of cases). However most of those areas are still in lockdown (i.e. rural Scotland/Wales) and even if they're not you wont find may people willing to drop the social distancing idea, because the Government has spent the last 7 weeks scaring the s**! out of everybody promoting it!

To be fair, the chart doesn't really have to mention a vaccine as an effective one would push us down the chart anyway.
 

Bantamzen

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We are spending a lot of time and energy on several threads talking about adjusting to permanently restricted rail and other public transport capacity, but if we look at what the new five level alert system actually says, when we drop to level 2 there will be no or minimal social distancing measures. Even just dropping to level 3 indicates a gradual reduction in social distancing measures. I have yet to see any mention of that on this forum ( although I should add the caveat that I don't read 100% of the threads; I simply don't have time for that! )

It follows, therefore, that the capacity issues with public transport at the moment are temporary - although of course we do not know how long that will apply for. The important point is, it is not permanent. We should not, therefore, be talking about the issues as if they are permanent.

An image of the Government chart is below, along with the relevant quotes underneath it:


View attachment 77871

Exactly, people need to get it into their heads that social distancing and other measures are not permanent, and that any long term solutions will not need to mitigate for them. For the time being some long distance operators might use compulsory reservations as a mitigation, some might even use them as a business model going forward. However as has been discussed time and again, reservations on commuter lines will not work. 2 metre distancing is not going to be financially viable even in the short term, TOCs and the government are losing money hand over fist and it is only a matter of time before this will prove critical. 1 metre distancing might be possible for a time, but even then eventually this will have to be dropped.
 

carlberry

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To be fair, the chart doesn't really have to mention a vaccine as an effective one would push us down the chart anyway.
However other similar disease (such as Seasonal Flu or measles) don't produce the same level of fear. If you're next to somebody with one of these you're not that worried as you're likely to be vaccinated or know that, even if you get it badly, there is a known course of treatment that's likely to keep you alive or anybody you pass it on to.
Even if we were at level one I cant see people suddenly thinking 'well, it wont happen to me and, even if it does, I wont pass it on to grandma' and be willing to stop social distancing whereas seasonal flu is always at level 4 when it arrives and measles is likely to be at 3 now because of the anti vac movement.
 

Bletchleyite

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However other similar disease (such as Seasonal Flu or measles) don't produce the same level of fear. If you're next to somebody with one of these you're not that worried as you're likely to be vaccinated or know that, even if you get it badly, there is a known course of treatment that's likely to keep you alive or anybody you pass it on to.
Even if we were at level one I cant see people suddenly thinking 'well, it wont happen to me and, even if it does, I wont pass it on to grandma' and be willing to stop social distancing whereas seasonal flu is always at level 4 when it arrives and measles is likely to be at 3 now because of the anti vac movement.

Do you reckon? I'd put both of them at 2. I've had flu twice in my whole 40 years and don't know anyone who has (that I'm aware of) had measles. They are present, so it's not level 1, but I can't see how either could be anywhere near 4.
 

carlberry

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Do you reckon? I'd put both of them at 2. I've had flu twice in my whole 40 years and don't know anyone who has (that I'm aware of) had measles. They are present, so it's not level 1, but I can't see how either could be anywhere near 4.
I think the terms on the chart are vague enough that they can be interpreted in any way that's needed! For example my generation was expected to get measles early on (even deliberatly catching it) as that was the best advice at the time. With the arrival of the MMR vaccine the diesese must still be circulating but finding very few people to attack however with less people vaccinated it's now rising so it must be circulating, and transmitting, in the general population however most people wouldn't notice as they're immune. However I'm not qualified in these areas so it's purely an uneducated guess!
 

Bletchleyite

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I think the terms on the chart are vague enough that they can be interpreted in any way that's needed! For example my generation was expected to get measles early on (even deliberatly catching it) as that was the best advice at the time. With the arrival of the MMR vaccine the diesese must still be circulating but finding very few people to attack however with less people vaccinated it's now rising so it must be circulating, and transmitting, in the general population however most people wouldn't notice as they're immune. However I'm not qualified in these areas so it's purely an uneducated guess!

If you're immune you aren't spreading it because your body kills it before it can reproduce. That's how herd immunity works.
 

yorksrob

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However other similar disease (such as Seasonal Flu or measles) don't produce the same level of fear. If you're next to somebody with one of these you're not that worried as you're likely to be vaccinated or know that, even if you get it badly, there is a known course of treatment that's likely to keep you alive or anybody you pass it on to.
Even if we were at level one I cant see people suddenly thinking 'well, it wont happen to me and, even if it does, I wont pass it on to grandma' and be willing to stop social distancing whereas seasonal flu is always at level 4 when it arrives and measles is likely to be at 3 now because of the anti vac movement.

But if we were vaccinated that would automatically alter peoples perception of risk, just as we percieve seasonal flu as being less of a risk than we would do, were one not available.
 

carlberry

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But if we were vaccinated that would automatically alter peoples perception of risk, just as we percieve seasonal flu as being less of a risk than we would do, were one not available.
That was my point, the original chart for levels 3 and 4 appears to suggest the current level of risk (if caught) however level 2 suddenly assumes people will be happy that the risk (if caught) is suddenly much lower because the risk of catching it has reduced. I don't think that'll happen because of the level of fear that the Government has managed to install in people, people will still want to keep away from other people until the risk (if caught) is reduced/removed.
 

yorksrob

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That was my point, the original chart for levels 3 and 4 appears to suggest the current level of risk (if caught) however level 2 suddenly assumes people will be happy that the risk (if caught) is suddenly much lower because the risk of catching it has reduced. I don't think that'll happen because of the level of fear that the Government has managed to install in people, people will still want to keep away from other people until the risk (if caught) is reduced/removed.

I see.

I personally think that people will be more willing to accept the lower risk associated with vaccination, but I guess only time will tell !
 
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