Rail Usage 2018-19 and 2019/20

[Jorge Da Silva]

Following the decline in usage during the 2017-18 figures, today the Office of Rail and Road have published Q1 of 2018-19 year and the numbers are up.

http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/39342/passenger-rail-usage-2018-19-q1.pdf

Rail passenger journeys in Great Britain in 2018-19 Q1 increased to 429 million (3.1% rise compared to 2017-18 Q1). This was driven by a 3.5% increase in the London and South East sector. The total number of journeys for the 12 months to end June 2018 was 1.72 billion.

 

[cuccir]

Perhaps the most interesting data here is the continued transfer away from season tickets and towards more expensive Anytime and Off-Peak flexible tickets. Does this imply more people travelling but less frequently per person?

It'll be interesting to see if the impact of the May 2018 meltdown is felt more strongly in the Q2 data. There's clearly some here - a 2.4% decline for Northern - but it may well be that the impact is felt more in Q2 as the Q1 data covers many journeys that will have already been planned and booked before the news of the crisis became more widespread.

 

[ArchieWoodbine]

Perhaps the most interesting data here is the continued transfer away from season tickets and towards more expensive Anytime and Off-Peak flexible tickets

I've found that more and more people are working in a contracting capacity or, and I loathe this word, 'agile' office environments. A season ticket probably doesn't make muich sense if you're increasingly being shuffled around between offices/locations.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Perhaps the most interesting data here is the continued transfer away from season tickets and towards more expensive Anytime and Off-Peak flexible tickets. Does this imply more people travelling but less frequently per person?

It'll be interesting to see if the impact of the May 2018 meltdown is felt more strongly in the Q2 data. There's clearly some here - a 2.4% decline for Northern - but it may well be that the impact is felt more in Q2 as the Q1 data covers many journeys that will have already been planned and booked before the news of the crisis became more widespread.

Its better than 2017-18 where it declined and previous 2016-17 slowed down. 3.1% is a good increase in usage.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Caution: It's only comparing a quarter's figures.
It's easy to think these are a full year's figures, which they are not.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Caution: It's only comparing a quarter's figures.
It's easy to think these are a full year's figures, which they are not.

I know that but it is a good start better than the previous two first quarters. Which were both down from there previous years. This is up so it’s a good indication. But I get your point, anything can change.

 

[hwl]

I know that but it is a good start better than the previous two first quarters. Which were both down from there previous years. This is up so it’s a good indication. But I get your point, anything can change.

At least it is more positive than recent data and not another bad set.

 

[Bantamzen]

I've found that more and more people are working in a contracting capacity or, and I loathe this word, 'agile' office environments. A season ticket probably doesn't make muich sense if you're increasingly being shuffled around between offices/locations.

This is definitely a factor. Where I work more and more people are being issued with mobile tech solutions, meaning that they don't necessarily have stick to working from their 'base' site but can work from any with the organisation, and indeed even home. Indeed I've started to work at least one day a week from home, although I've yet to get to the point where my season ticket is no longer value.

 

[Spartacus]

Perhaps the most interesting data here is the continued transfer away from season tickets and towards more expensive Anytime and Off-Peak flexible tickets. Does this imply more people travelling but less frequently per person?

I've heard a few people boasting about how they buy an anytime and just keep using it until it's either invalid or is gripped. You can see why they come to that decision when you're so unlikely to be gripped on a peak time service on many routes.

 

[Failed Unit]

I must admit I was shocked to see GoVia Thameslink numbers up considering how poor Thameslink / Great Northern are. I guess as other have said the number of users on the now strike less Southern means that it isn’t impacting ridership as much. I guess as well Southern are recovering from loss of revenue due to the strike.

Good it is generally positive.

 

[hwl]

I must admit I was shocked to see GoVia Thameslink numbers up considering how poor Thameslink / Great Northern are. I guess as other have said the number of users on the now strike less Southern means that it isn’t impacting ridership as much. I guess as well Southern are recovering from loss of revenue due to the strike.

Good it is generally positive.

In the full May timetable 67% of services are operated by Southern (reduced from before with transfers to Thameslink) hence with the new timetable much better for Southern has been a big positive effect. The non 313 GTR services via Finsbury park are actually a very small number overall.

 

[Richard Hall]

I used to get a season ticket but now I work in another office at least once a week and work pay for the travel, it became more efficient to buy an anytime return each day. That and the regular delay repay makes it even cheaper

 

[pemma]

Caution: It's only comparing a quarter's figures.
It's easy to think these are a full year's figures, which they are not.

Yep I think the full figures for the last financial year come out in December when we'll also get a station by station breakdown.

Northern down 2.4% which isn't a surprise considering the RMT industrial action and the May 2018 duck up. However, Merseyrail up 9.4% despite the industrial action!

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Yep I think the full figures for the last financial year come out in December when we'll also get a station by station breakdown.

Northern down 2.4% which isn't a surprise considering the RMT industrial action and the May 2018 duck up. However, Merseyrail up 9.4% despite the industrial action!

That’s for 2017-18 not 2018-19.

 

[pemma]

That’s for 2017-18 not 2018-19.

Huh? The diagram heading says: "Passenger journeys (millions) by operator, 2018-19 Q1 and percentage change compared to 2017-18 Q1." So the % (which I quoted) is the difference between the 18/19 and the 17/18 figures.

 

[Bald Rick]

I must admit I was shocked to see GoVia Thameslink numbers up considering how poor Thameslink / Great Northern are. I guess as other have said the number of users on the now strike less Southern means that it isn’t impacting ridership as much. I guess as well Southern are recovering from loss of revenue due to the strike.

Good it is generally positive.

For southern, the dramatic upturn in reliability since the May timetable change (I am being serious!) will be having an effect too.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Huh? The diagram heading says: "Passenger journeys (millions) by operator, 2018-19 Q1 and percentage change compared to 2017-18 Q1." So the % (which I quoted) is the difference between the 18/19 and the 17/18 figures.

Sorry forget what I said.

 

[WatcherZero]

However, Merseyrail up 9.4% despite the industrial action!

Doesn't the period being compared cover the 1st blockade of Lime Street last year, there was also a second blockade in June/July this year partially captured. So you may see the Liverpool figures do down again slightly for the next quarter before bouncing back again.

 

[LeeLivery]

For southern, the dramatic upturn in reliability since the May timetable change (I am being serious!) will be having an effect too.

Indeed, Southern has noticeably improved. I'm finding them more reliable than London Overground these days.

 

[Hadders]

Many people these days work at least one day a week from home, and weekly capping on Contactless in London will also have an affect on traditional season ticket sales. The office where I work in London is a ghost town on Fridays.

I've heard a few people boasting about how they buy an anytime and just keep using it until it's either invalid or is gripped. You can see why they come to that decision when you're so unlikely to be gripped on a peak time service on many routes.

Many routes in the London and South East area only have Anytime Day Returns not Anytime Returns to prevent this from happening.

 

[whhistle]

Perhaps the most interesting data here is the continued transfer away from season tickets and towards more expensive Anytime and Off-Peak flexible tickets. Does this imply more people travelling but less frequently per person?

Or perhaps people are just claiming more back?
Many companies (including some sourts of justice!) will only refund daily tickets.
I hate expenses. It's just a way for companies to push up the price of their product.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Many people these days work at least one day a week from home, and weekly capping on Contactless in London will also have an affect on traditional season ticket sales. The office where I work in London is a ghost town on Fridays.



Many routes in the London and South East area only have Anytime Day Returns not Anytime Returns to prevent this from happening.

Ironically it seems from a quick check that the routes not effected by Strikes/GTR franchise etc etc that still have them. As there not regulated it will soon be clamped down- if there really is a problem-

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I've heard a few people boasting about how they buy an anytime and just keep using it until it's either invalid or is gripped. You can see why they come to that decision when you're so unlikely to be gripped on a peak time service on many routes.

That sounds pretty awful.

Are the ticket barriers (which you pretty much HAVE to put the ticket through if you're entering/exiting at most London terminals) not able to mark/encode the ticket in some way to show that ticket has now passed through that station?

 

[HH]

There's very definitely a trend away from working 5 days a week in London. It makes a lot of sense for firms if you can work from home some days as you need less expensive Central London office space. Then when you add holidays into the equation, plus travel to other places, annual seasons no longer make sense and even if you buy some monthlies there will also be daily tickets in the mix.

 

[Hatter76]

I've heard a few people boasting about how they buy an anytime and just keep using it until it's either invalid or is gripped. You can see why they come to that decision when you're so unlikely to be gripped on a peak time service on many routes.

Yes, as well as people reusing old anytime tickets, I saw a lady having the ticket app open on her phone during the journey. At every station she altered the starting point without purchasing in anticipation of the guard checking tickets during the journey. She got off at an unstaffed station, another free ride!

 

[bspahh]

Yes, as well as people reusing old anytime tickets, I saw a lady having the ticket app open on her phone during the journey. At every station she altered the starting point without purchasing in anticipation of the guard checking tickets during the journey. She got off at an unstaffed station, another free ride!

The Greater Anglia app says that the tickets are only valid for travel 10 minutes after you buy them. I've had some guards check tickets from the bar code, which should pick this up. Others want to see the text display, in which case they might not notice it.

 

[Starmill]

Many routes in the London and South East area only have Anytime Day Returns not Anytime Returns to prevent this from happening.

It's interesting given the policy at TransPennine Express of deleting Day Returns, so all returns are Off Peak Returns or Anytime Returns.

 

[squizzler]

There seems to be no pattern I can discern, as the growth seems to be spread around the traditional Southeast commuter operations (which I presumed to be falling as businesses retreat into the mainland EU countries) and the more provincial parts of the country which I thought would be leading growth due to the so-called "peak car" effects (fewer younger people owning their own ride, etc).

On the other hand, we are yet to see the transformative effects of the surge of new stock arriving into rural routes in Northern, Anglia, TPE, Wales & Borders. Next year should be very interesting.

 

[HH]

There has been a resurgence of young people using cars as I understand it, mostly outside London.

Given the changes in Seasons, I would take any short term movements with a large pinch of salt; also there will be some bounce back on GTR from all the problems they have had (the effect is lagged).

When I see 5 quarters saying the same thing then I'll take it as a trend...

 

[squizzler]

There has been a resurgence of young people using cars as I understand it, mostly outside London.

I understood that decline in young motorists is a trend observed over many years but am willing to stand corrected in light of new data. What have you seen to suggest that motoring is enjoying a second wind amongst the younger generation?