Rationing of flights - what would you do

[deltic]

Imagine if as part of the strategy to address climate change every person in the UK was given the right to purchase just 1 return flight a year which you could use or sell to someone else. (To keep it simple the right is just to one flight regardless of distance).

How much would you be prepared to pay to buy someone else’s right to fly if you want to fly more often and or how much would you want if you were to sell that right.

This is purely theoretical and not concerned about the practicalities of such a rationing system or its rights and wrongs and relates to non-business travel.

 

[JonathanH]

How much would you be prepared to pay to buy someone else’s right to fly if you want to fly more often and or how much would you want if you were to sell that right.

That is a fundamentally flawed model - you are simply saying the rich can travel more than the poor when true (and useful in the context of climate change) rationing would be just as you suggest, one (or no) return plane flight for all people.

I think you might need to build a bridge or tunnel between the British Mainland and Northern Ireland before this is feasible.

 

[deltic]

That is a fundamentally flawed model - you are simply saying the rich can travel more than the poor when true rationing would be just as you suggest, one (or no) return plane flight for all people.

No it means the poor who never fly are better off because they can sell their right to other people.

 

[yorksrob]

In truth, the rich can already travel more than the poor because flying isn't free. I suppose the difference with this hypothetical situation is that there would be less flying overall and the rich would have to compensate the poor directly to fly more, in addition to paying more for the product itself.

I tend to only fly once every ten years or so, so I'd probably exchange mine with the family.

 

[JonathanH]

No it means the poor who never fly are better off because they can sell their right to other people.

Is that really a good thing? You are effectively removing the limit on air travel for the rich. The issue of frequent flying only arises because affluent people can afford to fly regularly already.

Far better would simply be to have a levy on any flying which is paid to the poor, not directly obviously, but by tax providing the basis for welfare spending.

 

[duffield]

I see everyone is ignoring the actual question, which was '*If* this system *was* in place how much would you buy/sell for' and instead are answering a different question 'Is this system workable/fair etc.'

I'll actually answer the question and say I would hope to sell my flight for around £200 and donate the money to a heritage railway or two.

 

[RT4038]

Seems a system that is quite simple until you start thinking about it, as there will be exception after exception and a huge bureaucracy created to administer it. People do not only make flights purely as leisure trips/holidays.
1. Business travel. Every meeting and sales trip cannot be done at home and via telephone/video. I know there are some who wish it so, but if our companies can't conduct business in the way they want, they will lose out to foreign firms whose governments would not have such restrictions. It is also not possible to disassemble complex machinery, service/repair it, and assemble it again whilst working from home. My brother does this for a living (of British made machinery sold worldwide), making lots of air trips per year in the process.
2. Employment travel. Many UK citizens work abroad, often in places/situations where taking family is not suitable (many in the Gulf, but plenty all over the place). I expect we all know someone like this. They often travel home several times per year for family reasons.
3. Educational travel. Considerable income to British educational establishments (Universities, Private Schools etc) comes from foreign students, many who go home during the three main holidays. Unless this scheme is intended for UK residents only, with foreigners flying in as much as they like, which will really go down well.
4. There seems to be some real jealousy around people with wealth. Many wealthy people will be those taking business risks or positions of responsibility, with the attendant downsides of misjudgement and error. What is the point of taking those risks/responsibility if they cannot buy more or better than those who do not? Sounds quite communist to me. If the buying more or better is outrageously expensive, the rewards for taking risks and responsibility will just get even bigger until the current equilibrium is reached (and a widening of the wealth difference of have/have nots).
5. There are going to be a number of people getting very wealthy on the setting up of 'Flight credit exchanges', seeking out those (many) who have no intention of flying, taking a cut and selling on the credit notes. I would suggest that this wealth 'created' would be better collected through taxation.

If the flight restrictions are only on holidays/leisure journeys, you can be sure that an amazing number of business trips will have a leisure element - indeed I can see a burgeoning business of 'shell' subsidiaries in sunny climes being set up expressly for this purpose!
Without really unwarranted Government intervention in our lives, the only way of reducing air travel is increasing the cost, which will inevitably mean that the poorer sections of the community will not be able to afford it. Thus turning back the clock about 30-40 years?

 

[Mojo]

I'd just buy a boat or train ticket to another country to get around the restrictions

 

[Camden]

As such a system would quickly descend into super-inflationary prices for both flights (fewer passengers = higher prices on routes that remain) and the "fly units" (rich people and companies buying them up), I would either never sell or wait for the price to spike to absurd levels. Post spike, they become worthless because all the scheduled flights are cancelled through lack of passengers.

Carbon trading is a similar principle, and is big business (in fact, does the "industry" involved in carbon trading create more carbon than the system was supposedly designed to reduce...)

 

[Mikey C]

An interesting idea. Good news for many elderly people who don't want to or can't travel any more, as they can sell their rights!

I generally take one "exotic" holiday a year, so potentially could just survive on my ration, though every other year would probably buy an additional flight right

 

[PeterC]

Presumably we are talking about round trips rather than single flights. Unfortunately a totally impractical idea as it would be a nice little suppliment to my pension. I would want about £200.

 

[Domh245]

I would probably make use of mine in odd years (19/21) but sell it in even years (20/22) when there are the major sporting events (Olympics/Euros & World Cup) when demand for flights would be that bit higher.

 

[Belperpete]

If people were only making one flight a year, then there would be significantly fewer flights, and the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet would be out of business. So flights would cost significantly more than they do now. Probably pre-Laker fare levels. I would probably be looking at about £1000 to sell my ticket, but then I probably couldn't afford to fly anyway.

 

[Belperpete]

I'd just buy a boat or train ticket to another country to get around the restrictions

Agreed! Eurostar fares would go through the roof.

 

[Bald Rick]

If people were only making one flight a year, then there would be significantly fewer flights, and the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet would be out of business.

I’m not sure why you think Ryanair and EasyJet would be out of business. If anything, they’d be stronger than the rest.

 

[stantheman]

If I can digress slighly , the projected Ryanair return must see significantly longer turnaround times than at present , ditto EasyJet and others , to deal with cleaning , psssenger airport procedures etc etc .

 

[pieguyrob]

I would sell my one ruturn flight a year for as much as I can get for it. I know thats being greedy, but, hey thats capitalism for you. After all, everyone has a price.

As I don't fly much anyway, it doesn't really affect me much, and, I end up quids in! So job's a good 'n'!

 

[deltic]

I'd just buy a boat or train ticket to another country to get around the restrictions

But in reality how many people would do that and how many times. If you live in London then maybe you will be prepared to spend a few hours travelling to Brussels/Paris but if in Manchester or Bristol etc would you be faffed to do that?

 

[Belperpete]

I’m not sure why you think Ryanair and EasyJet would be out of business. If anything, they’d be stronger than the rest.

Because there wouldn't be sufficient people flying to make their business model viable.

 

[Mojo]

But in reality how many people would do that and how many times. If you live in London then maybe you will be prepared to spend a few hours travelling to Brussels/Paris but if in Manchester or Bristol etc would you be faffed to do that?

If it’s my only choice to get a decent number of holidays a year then I’d have to lump it.

 

[Bald Rick]

Because there wouldn't be sufficient people flying to make their business model viable.

EasyJet’s business model was viable when they had 2 x 737s operating out of Luton in 1995. It was viable when it was 10% of the size it is now in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 when other airlines were going out of business left right and centre. For as long as people are allowed to fly, Easyjet will be fine.

 

[Mikey C]

EasyJet’s business model was viable when they had 2 x 737s operating out of Luton in 1995. It was viable when it was 10% of the size it is now in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 when other airlines were going out of business left right and centre. For as long as people are allowed to fly, Easyjet will be fine.

The quarantine rules are a real game changer at the moment. If you have to self quarantine for 14 days after nearly all flights, the city break immediately becomes really unattractive. People might accept it for the annual "big" holiday or visit to overseas relatives in Asia or Australia, but not for that stag weekend in Prague, or quick hop to Italy!

 

[Bald Rick]

The quarantine rules are a real game changer at the moment. If you have to self quarantine for 14 days after nearly all flights, the city break immediately becomes really unattractive. People might accept it for the annual "big" holiday or visit to overseas relatives in Asia or Australia, but not for that stag weekend in Prague, or quick hop to Italy!

I disagree.

Given that a majority of the population have been effectively quarantined for 2 months, a fortnight extra is a small price to pay for a getaway, anywhere. Anecdote being the worst form of evidence I know, but I have a longstanding long weekend in Europe in a couple of months; if I can still go, I’ll be going even if it means continuing to work at home for the following 2 weeks. The other people I’m (hopefully) going with all agree.

 

[Belperpete]

I disagree.

Given that a majority of the population have been effectively quarantined for 2 months, a fortnight extra is a small price to pay for a getaway, anywhere. Anecdote being the worst form of evidence I know, but I have a longstanding long weekend in Europe in a couple of months; if I can still go, I’ll be going even if it means continuing to work at home for the following 2 weeks. The other people I’m (hopefully) going with all agree.

But the percentage of people who can work from home is limited. For many people, having to quarantine for 14 days would effectively mean having to take another two weeks leave. Totally impractical for most people.

In practice, I suspect that "bubbles" will build, like the current Anglo-French and Baltic bubbles, with people allowed to travel without quarantining within the bubbles. It looks like an EU-wide bubble may be in the offing. My concern is that if we can't get our virus numbers down, other nations will be reluctant to have us in their bubble.

 

[Belperpete]

EasyJet’s business model was viable when they had 2 x 737s operating out of Luton in 1995. It was viable when it was 10% of the size it is now in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 when other airlines were going out of business left right and centre. For as long as people are allowed to fly, Easyjet will be fine.

I am not sure that is true. It was a long time before they paid any dividends, and I recall a major falling out with their Greek founder about the lack of dividends. Remember that for a company to be viable, it has to pay adequate dividends to its investors.

 

[Bald Rick]

Remember that for a company to be viable, it has to pay adequate dividends to its investors.

Something which many other airlines have singularly failed to do for years, but Easyjet / Ryanair have done.

 

[deltic]

I am not sure that is true. It was a long time before they paid any dividends, and I recall a major falling out with their Greek founder about the lack of dividends. Remember that for a company to be viable, it has to pay adequate dividends to its investors.

Growing businesses do not have to pay dividends as the capital growth per share compensates for that. I think the company I work for didnt pay a dividend for over 20 years yet is a leading plc.

 

[Mikey C]

Stelios seems to have spent his life, since he stepped back from Easyjet, moaning and generally being unhelpful to the airline

His dismal track record in his other business ventures suggests his business acumen is limited

 

[Belperpete]

But the percentage of people who can work from home is limited. For many people, having to quarantine for 14 days would effectively mean having to take another two weeks leave. Totally impractical for most people.

In practice, I suspect that "bubbles" will build, like the current Anglo-French and Baltic bubbles, with people allowed to travel without quarantining within the bubbles. It looks like an EU-wide bubble may be in the offing. My concern is that if we can't get our virus numbers down, other nations will be reluctant to have us in their bubble.

Looks like the Anglo French bubble may be bursting before it even starts! What a shambles.

I was a bit gobsmacked by the guy on the news who reckoned that, after getting to France, he would be allowed to travel elsewhere throughout the EU under freedom of movement rules! It just shows how little attention some people take.

 

[Pugwash]

I would get the Eurostar to Paris or Amsterdam and fly from there.

I am sure French Government owned Eurostar and Air France would do something to hoover up British customers post Brexit.