Reliance on this Covid-19 vaccine

[MattA7]

Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the government (and a lot of the general public) seems to be assuming there will be a vaccine for this disease. The reality is we might never have a vaccine after all there are no vaccines against other Coronavirus’s.

I feel we should be saying if there is a vaccine not when there is a vaccine.

 

[bramling]

Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the government (and a lot of the general public) seems to be assuming there will be a vaccine for this disease. The reality is we might never have a vaccine after all there are no vaccines against other Coronavirus’s.

I feel we should be saying if there is a vaccine not when there is a vaccine.

Yes very much agree. There's been many posts on here which have centred around "when we get a vaccine" or "until we get a vaccine".

Whilst it's probable one will be forthcoming at some point, I've always thought there needs to be some thought to what happens if one doesn't happen.

We should all be thankful there's people working away behind the scenes as we speak doing their best to try and make it a reality.

And presumably it's very much the case that no vaccine is better than a bad vaccine.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

And when/if it comes it will be for this strain and not any mutations in the future.

 

[JonathanH]

Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the government (and a lot of the general public) seems to be assuming there will be a vaccine for this disease. The reality is we might never have a vaccine after all there are no vaccines against other Coronavirus’s.

I feel we should be saying if there is a vaccine not when there is a vaccine.

There aren't really a lot of other options available if there isn't a vaccine other than a reduction in actual life expectancy to something closer to healthy life expectancy than it is at the moment.

 

[packermac]

There seems to have been a subtle change in some of the messages from the health community over the past week I feel. On the lunchtime news there was an article about needing volunteers for a vaccine trial starting this week. The person heading it up did end with, we need to test if this vaccine works or if a vaccine is even possible. Plus we have had the antibody tests do not work, more open comments about the fact you may not have immunity if you have had the virus and even if you do it may not be for very long.
It may appear that the more we find out the less we know about this virus.

 

[bramling]

There aren't really a lot of other options available if there isn't a vaccine other than a reduction in actual life expectancy to something closer to healthy life expectancy than it is at the moment.

One associated question (which might merit its own thread) is in the absence of any vaccine how long furloughing viably can go on for, especially if social distancing has to continue well into the future. I'm thinking of industries like restaurants who might not be able to survive based on reduced capacities.

I don't think we should necessarily be concerned about the number of unknowns presenting themselves with this virus, as it's still very early days yet. The problem is that there are too many unknowns to be delivering a complete solution in short order.

 

[MattA7]

If there is no vaccine then our only hope would be to find drugs that reduce the lethality in the disease for those made seriously ill by it or that immunity comes naturally over the years.

 

[chris11256]

At this moment in time I honestly don't think some people are ready to hear that there might not be a vaccine. Some people have been thoroughly worked up & are completely terrified, I know people who are on the verge of permanently withdrawing their kids from school to keep them home until further notice.

 

[Bletchleyite]

At this moment in time I honestly don't think some people are ready to hear that there might not be a vaccine. Some people have been thoroughly worked up & are completely terrified, I know people who are on the verge of permanently withdrawing their kids from school to keep them home until further notice.

Which is putting the fear in the wrong place - it's your Mum or Nan to be worried about (to some extent), kids by and large get away with it.

 

[Mogster]

One thing is for sure, if the CoV2 outbreak dies down over the next month or so the research into vaccines must continue.

There seems to be a pattern where after the initial outbreak is contained the initial frenzy of vaccine research declines, then stops, and an effective vaccine is never produced and tested. This happened with SARS, MERS, Ebola.

We could have had an effective SARS vaccine sat in a research lab freezer somewhere but research stopped years ago when cases declined so the work was never finished. The knowledge gained from creating an effective SARS vaccine would be invaluable now, instead after 15 years it’s like starring from scratch.

We need funding for vaccine research from governments, fundamental research that isn’t necessarily pointed towards a commercial outcome. Research should be especially directed against respiratory infections, influenza, corona, rhino virus as they seem to be the most likely causes of pandemic infections. We need to know more about them an what makes them tick, even the common ones that seem less sinister. The next pandemic could be a virulent Rhinovirus variant, who knows.

 

[DarloRich]

Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the government (and a lot of the general public) seems to be assuming there will be a vaccine for this disease. The reality is we might never have a vaccine after all there are no vaccines against other Coronavirus’s.

I feel we should be saying if there is a vaccine not when there is a vaccine.

Absolutely agree but i understand why people are clinging to the hope of a vaccine. We also need teams of people working on mitigation treatments and on how we deal with this situation in the medium to long term IF there is no cure and/or viable mitigation treatments and what that means for us as a society

 

[Bantamzen]

At this moment in time I honestly don't think some people are ready to hear that there might not be a vaccine. Some people have been thoroughly worked up & are completely terrified, I know people who are on the verge of permanently withdrawing their kids from school to keep them home until further notice.

And this is why I think the whole "scare them silly" methodology has been the wrong approach. In the absence of a vaccine, are people really going to totally withdraw for months, years, perhaps even decades? We need some honest but sensible messaging now, no more accusing people of killing others but preparing them for a return to some semblance of normality, and how to mitigate for the risks themselves.

 

[chris11256]

And this is why I think the whole "scare them silly" methodology has been the wrong approach. In the absence of a vaccine, are people really going to totally withdraw for months, years, perhaps even decades? We need some honest but sensible messaging now, no more accusing people of killing others but preparing them for a return to some semblance of normality, and how to mitigate for the risks themselves.

Exactly, I do think that there needs to be a subtle/slight change of message form the government that we will have to open up again within the next month or two.

However ultimately people will go back out again when the government stops paying peoples wages & companies want people back in the office.

 

[Mogster]

And this is why I think the whole "scare them silly" methodology has been the wrong approach. In the absence of a vaccine, are people really going to totally withdraw for months, years, perhaps even decades? We need some honest but sensible messaging now, no more accusing people of killing others but preparing them for a return to some semblance of normality, and how to mitigate for the risks themselves.

Yes, as you say the campaign has almost been too effective. The change from “save the NHS” to “saving lives” was very large in peoples minds I think, especially now we will need people to return to normal with the media still reporting daily case and death totals.

It will be very difficult convincing some people to return to normal after this now.

 

[yorkie]

At this moment in time I honestly don't think some people are ready to hear that there might not be a vaccine. Some people have been thoroughly worked up & are completely terrified, I know people who are on the verge of permanently withdrawing their kids from school to keep them home until further notice.

Unless the kids have health issues that put them severely at risk, then that's a crazy decision. The vast majority of kids are not going to come to any harm with this disease. However the harm they could come to by being kept at home indefinitely is immense

Yes, as you say the campaign has almost been too effective. The change from “save the NHS” to “saving lives” was very large in peoples minds I think, especially now we will need people to return to normal with the media still reporting daily case and death totals.

It will be very difficult convincing some people to return to normal after this now.

Yes some people have completely the wrong idea; as mentioned in this thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ce-or-eliminate-exposure-to-the-virus.203531/ ; they incorrectly think that it's vital to avoid catching the virus indefinitely whereas the current measures are just about avoiding too many people catching the virus right now. If they are not in a severely at risk group, then they should worry much more about the effects of the measures to mitigate the virus than the virus itself, in the longer term.

 

[yorksrob]

One thing is for sure, if the CoV2 outbreak dies down over the next month or so the research into vaccines must continue.

There seems to be a pattern where after the initial outbreak is contained the initial frenzy of vaccine research declines, then stops, and an effective vaccine is never produced and tested. This happened with SARS, MERS, Ebola.

We could have had an effective SARS vaccine sat in a research lab freezer somewhere but research stopped years ago when cases declined so the work was never finished. The knowledge gained from creating an effective SARS vaccine would be invaluable now, instead after 15 years it’s like starring from scratch.

We need funding for vaccine research from governments, fundamental research that isn’t necessarily pointed towards a commercial outcome. Research should be especially directed against respiratory infections, influenza, corona, rhino virus as they seem to be the most likely causes of pandemic infections. We need to know more about them an what makes them tick, even the common ones that seem less sinister. The next pandemic could be a virulent Rhinovirus variant, who knows.

This is very true.

It's noticable that even the abortive work on vaccines against those previous outbreaks, has provided a head start for some of those in development for COVID19.

 

[packermac]

Yes, as you say the campaign has almost been too effective. The change from “save the NHS” to “saving lives” was very large in peoples minds I think, especially now we will need people to return to normal with the media still reporting daily case and death totals.

It will be very difficult convincing some people to return to normal after this now.

The problem will be what the acceptable death rate is. The media and hence the public seem to have this view that any death is one too many. Maybe aspirations need to be changed because even Germany (held up as the guiding light in Europe) is reporting 200 to 300 deaths a day currently

 

[yorkie]

The problem will be what the acceptable death rate is. The media and hence the public seem to have this view that any death is one too many. Maybe aspirations need to be changed because even Germany (held up as the guiding light in Europe) is reporting 200 to 300 deaths a day currently

Some people do have an insane view on this; the majority of deaths would have happened soon anyway; the vast majority of those which would not have happened soon were people with underlying health conditions (which is of course extremely distressing but should not cause the facts to be distorted). Yes a very small number of healthy people will have died from it but the numbers for that must be very small; the media will make any such deaths a huge story of course. But this will be dwarfed by the effect on mental health, which will hardly make the news. It's totally and utterly illogical.

I know of totally fit and healthy people who have turned into a nervous wreck and even fallen out with family members, because they have read about some healthy people dying from the disease and therefore they think it's likely that they will die if they get it. They're now in a far worse place to fight a virus because their immune system will now be weakened. The media have to take some responsibility for this, as do the sensationalist people who take the view that mental health, physical fitness and all sorts of other important factors for life quality should be completely disregarded.

I do hope that the situation changes in the coming weeks.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Whereas I'm struggling to be scared of catching it at all, I'm more driven by the fact that I would be mortified if I found I had given it to someone else, particularly if it became a serious case. It's a bit like my approach to driving in a way. Or indeed outdoor climbing, where, for example, I have been known not to wear a helmet when climbing myself if I was getting too hot (though I've now got a nice ventilated one) but I would always wear one when belaying someone else as it's about them, not me.

 

[edwin_m]

One thing is for sure, if the CoV2 outbreak dies down over the next month or so the research into vaccines must continue.

There seems to be a pattern where after the initial outbreak is contained the initial frenzy of vaccine research declines, then stops, and an effective vaccine is never produced and tested. This happened with SARS, MERS, Ebola.

We could have had an effective SARS vaccine sat in a research lab freezer somewhere but research stopped years ago when cases declined so the work was never finished. The knowledge gained from creating an effective SARS vaccine would be invaluable now, instead after 15 years it’s like starring from scratch.

We need funding for vaccine research from governments, fundamental research that isn’t necessarily pointed towards a commercial outcome. Research should be especially directed against respiratory infections, influenza, corona, rhino virus as they seem to be the most likely causes of pandemic infections. We need to know more about them an what makes them tick, even the common ones that seem less sinister. The next pandemic could be a virulent Rhinovirus variant, who knows.

Wasn't the problem here that it's very difficult to test the efficacy of a vaccine unless there's a significant prevalence of the disease going round? SARS Mers and Ebola were stamped out too quickly to set up a trial where a group of volunteers are given either the vaccine under test or a placebo and monitored as they went about their normal lives to see what proportion of them fall ill. And healthy people aren't going to volunteer to be given one of those particularly deadly viruses deliberately, with a 50% chance of no protection at all and even the other 50% have a chance that it will be ineffective.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Wasn't the problem here that it's very difficult to test the efficacy of a vaccine unless there's a significant prevalence of the disease going round? SARS Mers and Ebola were stamped out too quickly to set up a trial where a group of volunteers are given either the vaccine under test or a placebo and monitored as they went about their normal lives to see what proportion of them fall ill. And healthy people aren't going to volunteer to be given one of those particularly deadly viruses deliberately, with a 50% chance of no protection at all and even the other 50% have a chance that it will be ineffective.

Actually, I would. I'd imagine there will be others too. (Edit: COVID19, I mean, not those other rather more deadly ones)

I doubt I'd be accepted, though, as I technically fall into the "vulnerable but not so vulnerable" group by virtue of mild asthma. Also I think I've had it, so if I have the natural immunity (if it exists) would cloud it.

 

[Bantamzen]

Whereas I'm struggling to be scared of catching it at all, I'm more driven by the fact that I would be mortified if I found I had given it to someone else, particularly if it became a serious case. It's a bit like my approach to driving in a way. Or indeed outdoor climbing, where, for example, I have been known not to wear a helmet when climbing myself if I was getting too hot (though I've now got a nice ventilated one) but I would always wear one when belaying someone else as it's about them, not me.

But with a few simple mitigations, i.e. wash your hands regularly, cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing you massively reduce the chance of passing it on. If you go around being terrified you might pass this, or indeed any other infection on that might contribute to someone's demise, I'm sorry to be blunt but you'd better bunker down for the long run. We can't live our lives that way, if we did we'd be terrified of ourselves and everyone else, and society would cease to function. Just take responsibility for the simple basics, that is all you can do.

 

[edwin_m]

Actually, I would. I'd imagine there will be others too. (Edit: COVID19, I mean, not those other rather more deadly ones)

I doubt I'd be accepted, though, as I technically fall into the "vulnerable but not so vulnerable" group by virtue of mild asthma. Also I think I've had it, so if I have the natural immunity (if it exists) would cloud it.

I was referring to the more deadly ones, as one reason why no vaccine became available. I don't expect a shortage of people experiencing frequent exposure to Covid-19 and willing to volunteer for a trial of any future vaccine.

 

[Mogster]

Wasn't the problem here that it's very difficult to test the efficacy of a vaccine unless there's a significant prevalence of the disease going round? SARS Mers and Ebola were stamped out too quickly to set up a trial where a group of volunteers are given either the vaccine under test or a placebo and monitored as they went about their normal lives to see what proportion of them fall ill. And healthy people aren't going to volunteer to be given one of those particularly deadly viruses deliberately, with a 50% chance of no protection at all and even the other 50% have a chance that it will be ineffective.

Ebola is still active in DR Congo, there was a new outbreak starting in 2018 iirc.

Just having a coronavirus vaccine candidate working in the lab would have been a huge step up. I read somewhere work had been started on a Rhinovirus vaccine, it only covered about 20 of the 150 known strains but the early results seemed promising. Work was stopped at an early stage due to a lack of funding. It’s that sort of work that needs to continue to completion Just so we have the knowledge and ability.
Primates are often susceptible to human pathogens, the early protection work would probably be done on animals.

Having been involved with some clinical trials and aware of many others it’s surprising what healthy people will volunteer for, even if they aren’t being paid. Living donor procedures also, helping others really appeals to some. I’ve never heard of any trial being short of volunteers, quite the opposite. Of course even if they volunteer there are ethical concerns with trials on humans (with animals also of course) it’s not the 1950s any more.

Trials are underway infecting volunteers with the milder coranovirus’s to study disease progression.

 

[js1000]

Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the government (and a lot of the general public) seems to be assuming there will be a vaccine for this disease. The reality is we might never have a vaccine after all there are no vaccines against other Coronavirus’s.

I feel we should be saying if there is a vaccine not when there is a vaccine.

Well I'm concerned we will never actually find a vaccine for Coronavirus. The media and public are taking modern science for granted and assuming there will be a vaccine. Bacterial infections are relatively easy to vaccinate and treat with antibiotics.

But viruses by their nature are hard to immunise against. This ranges from a common cold to HIV. I'm led to believe even the flu vaccine is only 50% effective.

Herd immunity is not such an insane idea as it sounded last month to many.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But with a few simple mitigations, i.e. wash your hands regularly, cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing you massively reduce the chance of passing it on. If you go around being terrified you might pass this, or indeed any other infection on that might contribute to someone's demise, I'm sorry to be blunt but you'd better bunker down for the long run. We can't live our lives that way, if we did we'd be terrified of ourselves and everyone else, and society would cease to function. Just take responsibility for the simple basics, that is all you can do.

For clarity, I wasn't suggesting I was cowering at home, it's more that this is what is motivating me to stick to the measures advised. Or as another example I did some voluntary work on Saturday (shifting furniture for someone who was being rehoused) and wore a mask not to protect me but to protect him and other volunteers from any possibility of me having it. At home I'm not really doing anything differently bar a bit more handwashing.

 

[Chester1]

Well I'm concerned we will never actually find a vaccine for Coronavirus. The media and public are taking modern science for granted and assuming there will be a vaccine. Bacterial infections are relatively easy to vaccinate and treat with antibiotics.

But viruses by their nature are hard to immunise against. This ranges from a common cold to HIV. I'm led to believe even the flu vaccine is only 50% effective.

Herd immunity is not such an insane idea as it sounded last month to many.

Herd immunity was never the immediate plan. The government's medical and scientific advisors only mentioned it in the context of that total surpression was neither likely nor a good thing if we then get hit by another wave from abroad. That was sufficient the media to whip up a frenzy and the usual suspects who hate the Tories argue it showed how callous they are etc. Herd immunity through infection is still our only current way out of the pandemic (alongside treatments improving survival chances). A vaccine would reduce the number of lives lost before we reach herd immunity but we can't gamble on one arriving in the next 18 months or ever.

 

[Bantamzen]

For clarity, I wasn't suggesting I was cowering at home, it's more that this is what is motivating me to stick to the measures advised. Or as another example I did some voluntary work on Saturday (shifting furniture for someone who was being rehoused) and wore a mask not to protect me but to protect him and other volunteers from any possibility of me having it. At home I'm not really doing anything differently bar a bit more handwashing.

You're missing my point, if people continue to treat themselves (or indeed others) as risks, we in turn risk damaging society to the point at which we would be afraid to leave our homes, be it because we are afraid of spreading or contracting the numerous infections out there. But a simple hygiene & common sense routine is all that is needed in the long run to mitigate the vast majority of risk.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You're missing my point, if people continue to treat themselves (or indeed others) as risks, we in turn risk damaging society to the point at which we would be afraid to leave our homes, be it because we are afraid of spreading or contracting the numerous infections out there. But a simple hygiene & common sense routine is all that is needed in the long run to mitigate the vast majority of risk.

Sadly I don't believe that is correct, otherwise the "handwashing etc" approach would have been enough and it wasn't.

 

[6862]

You're missing my point, if people continue to treat themselves (or indeed others) as risks, we in turn risk damaging society to the point at which we would be afraid to leave our homes, be it because we are afraid of spreading or contracting the numerous infections out there. But a simple hygiene & common sense routine is all that is needed in the long run to mitigate the vast majority of risk.

While I disagree that simple hygiene and common sense are unlikely to mitigate the risk long term by themselves, I personally think they're all we can afford to do long term unless we want to see society and our economy continue to collapse. In fact, I personally feel that both are already well on their way to total collapse.