Rolling Stock - masses of stock coming off lease

[Prestige15]

There are many new trains on the horizon and as a result many would need a new home or face a new life as a washine machine or a nail clipper.

According to Modern Railway, Here are the stocks that are potentially at risk.

Ex BR:
90/MK3/DVT (GA, though i do expect the class 90 may move to freight duties)
150, 153b(LM/GA)
317 (All of them)
319 (LM/GTR)
321 (All of them)
323 (LM/NR)
455/456 (SWR)
442 (Excluding those moving to SWR)
HST (GWR/VTEC/GC Excluding those that are moving to scotland/GC HST may be part if Grand Central takes all 180's)
91/MK4 (Excluding those that are about 7 remain with VTEC and a small number to wcml
365 (Remaining 21)
465/466 (All of them aparently)

Class 142/144/313/315 are also on the list but i wont be surprise if they get scraped

Modern:
170 (GA)
180 (HT)
185 (Remaining 22)
350/2/350/4
360/360/2
379
458/5
707
A number of Electrostars may also be affected if the next South Eastern Franchise also goes for new trains


Do you think that TOC's are doing the right thing or just wasting money and do you have any suggestions for these stocks?

 

[Jamesrob637]

There are many new trains on the horizon and as a result many would need a new home or face a new life as a washine machine or a nail clipper.

According to Modern Railway, Here are the stocks that are potentially at risk.

Ex BR: 150, 153b(LM/GA)
319 (LM/GTR),
323 (LM/NR)
455/456 (SWR)
HST (GWR/VTEC/GC Excluding those that are moving to scotland/GC HST may be part if Grand Central takes all 180's)
91/MK4 (Excluding those that are about 7 remain with VTEC and a small number to wcml
365 (Remaining 21)
465/466 (All of them aparently)

Class 142/144/313/315 are also on the list but i wont be surprise if they get scraped

Modern:
170 (GA)
180 (HT, tough i do expect they would move to GC to form a single fleet)
185 (Remaining 22)
350/2/350/4
360/360/2
379
458/5
707
A number of Electrostars may also be affected if the next South Eastern Franchise also goes for new trains


Do you think that TOC's are doing the right thing or just wasting money and do you have any suggestions for these stocks?

All Pacer need to go by 31/12/19. The rest I'm not sure on

 

[BestWestern]

SWR should have been compelled to renegotiate the lease on the 707s beyond the point they'll now be disposed of, retaining the existing fleets and avoiding the appalling waste of 458s fresh from hugely expensive rebuilds being binned. Similarly wasteful disposing of the retractioned 455s.

150s are unavoidably ancient, although presumably DDA modified examples will be expected to do another ten years or so. The next SE franchise going for new trains quite simply shouldn't be allowed to happen if we are awash with surplus rolling stock. Overhaul and refurbishment are available, make do with it. From dire shortages to wasteful excess; the industry needs to get a grip. Apparently there's a shortage of cash and the railway needs to be frugal. You wouldn't think so. Perhaps the government needs to think outside of the box here. Create a state owned ROSCO and reacquire this surplus stock that used to belong to the country. Overhaul it and offer it to TOCs at a sensible price, thus reducing overheads and subsidy. Yes ultimately that's still public money subsidising something, but better it subsidises state assets than subsidising train manufacturers through massive leasing costs.

 

[Prestige15]

All Pacer need to go by 31/12/19. The rest I'm not sure on

I know those nasty pacers needs to go, Not sure if that includes 144012

 

[Domh245]

All Pacer need to go by 31/12/19. The rest I'm not sure on

Only in Northern-land. The GW and Welsh pacers could receive the necessary PRM-TSI mods to make them compliant for use after that date.

As for the first post, there has been plenty of discussion across a whole variety of threads - although some of the stock that you suggest are safe don't make any sense. I'd be amazed if we see any IC225s on the WCML, and I'm fairly sure that the 350/4s are all but confirmed to appear in the West Midlands Franchise.

It is the case that a number of the ex-BR stock are coming to the end of their life, even if they have had work done recently (the SW 455s for example). Certainly some of the networkers are coming to the end of their practical life, even though they are quite young, as they used cutting edge (for the time) tech which is now difficult to obtain. I would certainly expect all of the modern DMUs to get hoovered up by someone, and some of the EMUs as well, but the limited need for them could work against them.

As for "are the TOCs wasting money" - it is of course the ROSCOs that are doing all the investment, and equally the DfT wouldn't award the franchise to someone if the quality improvements from the new stock wouldn't represent good value for money.

 

[Prestige15]

Only in Northern-land. The GW and Welsh pacers could receive the necessary PRM-TSI mods to make them compliant for use after that date.

As for the first post, there has been plenty of discussion across a whole variety of threads - although some of the stock that you suggest are safe don't make any sense. I'd be amazed if we see any IC225s on the WCML, and I'm fairly sure that the 350/4s are all but confirmed to appear in the West Midlands Franchise.

It is the case that a number of the ex-BR stock are coming to the end of their life, even if they have had work done recently (the SW 455s for example). Certainly some of the networkers are coming to the end of their practical life, even though they are quite young, as they used cutting edge (for the time) tech which is now difficult to obtain. I would certainly expect all of the modern DMUs to get hoovered up by someone, and some of the EMUs as well, but the limited need for them could work against them.

As for "are the TOCs wasting money" - it is of course the ROSCOs that are doing all the investment, and equally the DfT wouldn't award the franchise to someone if the quality improvements from the new stock wouldn't represent good value for money.

I have seen that Alliance rail would take a small number of these 91/mk4's for the London - Blackpool service rathern that buying ne shorter Pendolinos

Would like to see it but anything can happen from them these days, As for 350/4 I had a read again and all it says that ''originally they were to move to West Midlands'' Makes sense if they do.

 

[squizzler]

Allow me, as usual, to put a contrary and somewhat bullish view. Rail passenger traffic is still forecast to double in the next 25 years. Much of the growth of traffic post privatisation was in the south east where growth meant figuring how to cram more people into a finite amount of space. Sweating the assets is another area fro which more business was generated by the same amount of rolling stock. The next phase of growth will presumably come from the provincial cities and high frequency regional rail on routes freed up by the construction of HS2, for which I think it more likely that passenger growth will be driven by making journey quality competitive with alternative modes.

I therefore think that we have reached the minimum amount of train per passenger mile on the core network and that future business will require a proportionate increase of the amount of stock available.

To summarise, I think that, apart from eliminating stock that does not meet compliance, nonviable sized microfleets and "problem children" all the RosCo's need to do is wait for the demand to catch up with what is available.That's the nice thing about being in a growing market.

 

[Elecman]

All the 323s should come to Northern for enhanced service and remain maintained at Longsight as now so no micro fleet issues

 

[Elecman]

Also the 321's as a better train than the 319's on the longer services

 

[bramling]

Also the 321's as a better train than the 319's on the longer services

I agree it's daft to withdraw or scrap 321s over the older and less reliable 319s. The only complication is the flex conversions, where there may be some benefit in having a level of standardisation.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As for "are the TOCs wasting money" - it is of course the ROSCOs that are doing all the investment, and equally the DfT wouldn't award the franchise to someone if the quality improvements from the new stock wouldn't represent good value for money.

For pretty much the first time since privatisation, there is genuine competition in the rolling stock market.
It's up to the ROSCOs to get it right in terms of leasing prices.
If they make more money from a new (usually larger) fleet of trains than from the old fleet, they too will favour new instead of old.
Nobody wants to spend a fortune on obsolescent stock with a short future life.
Virtually all the ex-BR stock is now in that class.
The 321/455/150 etc fleets have been intensively used since new and have earned their keep for 30-40 years.
379/707 etc is a different kettle of fish, but it's the risk the ROSCOs took when they bought the fleets with a short usage guarantee.

It's what the DfT has been plotting for about for 15 years, because of easy profits made by the ROSCOs on the ex-BR fleet early in the privatisation era.
There's also a drive by ROSCOs and TOCs to reduce maintenance costs, rather like EasyJet and Ryanair keep buying new planes to avoid expensive maintenance.
This will have favoured an all-new fleet at GA rather than retaining older stock (321, 360, 379 etc).
Small non-standard fleets are also unpopular (eg 180).

 

[47802]

There are many new trains on the horizon and as a result many would need a new home or face a new life as a washine machine or a nail clipper.

According to Modern Railway, Here are the stocks that are potentially at risk.

Ex BR:
90/MK3/DVT (GA, though i do expect the class 90 may move to freight duties)
150, 153b(LM/GA)
317 (All of them)
319 (LM/GTR)
321 (All of them)
323 (LM/NR)
455/456 (SWR)
442 (Excluding those moving to SWR)
HST (GWR/VTEC/GC Excluding those that are moving to scotland/GC HST may be part if Grand Central takes all 180's)
91/MK4 (Excluding those that are about 7 remain with VTEC and a small number to wcml
365 (Remaining 21)
465/466 (All of them aparently)

Class 142/144/313/315 are also on the list but i wont be surprise if they get scraped

Modern:
170 (GA)
180 (HT)
185 (Remaining 22)
350/2/350/4
360/360/2
379
458/5
707
A number of Electrostars may also be affected if the next South Eastern Franchise also goes for new trains


Do you think that TOC's are doing the right thing or just wasting money and do you have any suggestions for these stocks?

Why is at an issue the BR stuff is essentially life expired and can go for scrap, the issue is mainly with rolling stock which is less than 20 years old, and we don't know what will happen to that stock yet.

 

[Prestige15]

All the 323s should come to Northern for enhanced service and remain maintained at Longsight as now so no micro fleet issues

I think all 323 should move to scotland and replace 314/318's

 

[Kite159]

I think all 323 should move to scotland and replace 314/318's

323s are longer than the 318s so won't work doubled up on the suburban network where 6 cars is the limit

 

[jopsuk]

there's quite a lot of the glasgow suburban network can take 380s, which are 23m coaches, in 6 car form.

 

[rustbucket]

Small non-standard fleets are also unpopular (eg 180).

And seemingly not in great shape the 180s either

Frequent traveller on Hull Trains, and although they keep throwing money at them they are still not liked by staff and “on their last legs”

Not for the first time I was delayed last week because one decided to leave Kings Cross on 3 engines instead of 5 with no warning!

Not to mention the air con and sockets on board not having worked reliably in 6 months plus

 

[D365]

Lucky then that the HT 180s are being replaced

 

[rustbucket]

Lucky then that the HT 180s are being replaced

Yep, staff and passengers both can’t wait

Pity the poor soul that gets the 180s next!

 

[BestWestern]

Yep, staff and passengers both can’t wait

Pity the poor soul that gets the 180s next!

Grand Central isn't it? And the one's they've already got are the worst of the lot, I presume?

 

[D365]

Grand Central isn't it? And the one's they've already got are the worst of the lot, I presume?

Is it confirmed that they are taking on the HT units additionally?

 

[cj_1985]

have GC even done a proper refurb? last I heard all they did was tidy up first class, repaint them and plaster board games on some tables.

They are, I assume, still running around with the (first class) seats still in the same condition as when they were all leased to FGW.

I would hope that with them taking on more of them to standardise their fleet, that they would get a proper refurb going...

 

[F Great Eastern]

Whatever you think about the reliability of the 180s at the moment, it's light years ahead of what it was in the first half of their life to date!

 

[cj_1985]

Whatever you think about the reliability of the 180s at the moment, it's light years ahead of what it was in the first half of their life to date!

no doubt. The fact that GC want more of them, is testament to that

 

[Jamesrob637]

I was on a GC 180 last weekend and quite enjoyed it, although my trip was only from Mirfield to Wakefield Kirkgate, so all of quarter of an hour if that!

 

[BestWestern]

Is it confirmed that they are taking on the HT units additionally?

Oh, sorry might have dropped the ball there! I've no idea!

 

[Kite159]

have GC even done a proper refurb? last I heard all they did was tidy up first class, repaint them and plaster board games on some tables.

They are, I assume, still running around with the (first class) seats still in the same condition as when they were all leased to FGW.

I would hope that with them taking on more of them to standardise their fleet, that they would get a proper refurb going...

Isn't there a 180 away at the moment getting a refurb in Eastleigh (as well as getting the equipment fitted for electronic signalling?)

 

[Starmill]

Only in Northern-land. The GW and Welsh pacers could receive the necessary PRM-TSI mods to make them compliant for use after that date.

Theoretically this is completely possible.

However, their owners have indicated strongly that they are not minded to do this.

I must say there are some people rather over-egging the pudding here. Nothing has been scrapped yet! I have heard that even the trailers from the 321 units that moved from London Midland to ScotRail were not, in the end, scrapped.

There is no real argument that the 142s or 315s have any future but the scrapheap and I don't think there ever has been. Circumstances now seem to dictate that the 507/508, 314 and 143/144 units will join this category.

As to the rest... who knows. Many people thought that the 442s were done but that turned out not to be the case.

The list provided by Modern Railways includes a number of 170s and the entire 379 fleet. It should be obvious these will find new employment and will not be going for scrap any time soon.

Those paying attention will know that a deal has very recently been done to ensure the continued use of a significant number of 377s at Southeastern following the introduction of class 700s.

 

[3141]

I must say there are some people rather over-egging the pudding here. Nothing has been scrapped yet!

Nothing has been scrapped yet because on the BR list the only large scale withdrawals so far are class 319, and on the Modern list nothing has been withdrawn.

It’s seems reasonable to assume that the modern diesels will find alternative work, but they are only a small fraction of the trains on that list. On the other hand, with all the modern stock to be replaced at Greater Anglia, South Western and West Midlands, who could now feel sure about that?

It’s also reasonable to expect that 350/2, 350/4, 360, 360/2, 379 and 707 would find other work, but where will that be? Apart from 707 they’d all need some degree of work to enable them to run on third rail. If the DfT’s Invitation to Tender for South Eastern encourages bidders to propose new trains, they aren’t going to offer existing trains that require conversion and mean they’ll be operating several different types of rolling stock.

I note the suggestion earlier in the thread that additional trains will be needed in the Midlands and North. But with Scotrail, TPE and Northern having already ordered new trains, and Abellio now doing so for the West Midlands, it would be necessary for the DfT to require the companies running those franchises to take on some of the trains about to become surplus. The companies’ preference would be for more trains like the ones they’ll already have. The surplus trains wouldn’t be needed for some years yet, so where would they be stored and how would they be looked after in the meantime? It’s going to be twenty years before ALL of the surplus stock would be needed in the areas suggested, by which time what remains will have deteriorated and have to be scrapped.

On the BR list, there are some that have indeed reached the end of their reasonable life. But others have plenty of life left, especially if refurbished, as many 321s are being already. Even class 455 have further potential now that they’ve been retractioned. 323 and 365 are other useful trains that shouldn’t be in any doubt at this time.

It’s clearly in the interests of recent franchise winners to have bid in the way they did, in view of what the DfT stipulated. They get more modern trains that should become more reliable, need less maintenance, and have lower leasing costs, and they get largely homogenous fleets. But that’s achieved through a shocking waste of money in relation to trains that have at least ten years more life in them – and in some cases many more years than that – and while some of those trains will survive, the realistic consequence of making so many trains surplus to requirements over just a few years is that many of them will be scrapped.

How could we have reached this situation? Does it mean that the DfT is totally incompetent, and could not see where its encouragement of “quality improvements” through new trains was going to lead? Or is it as LNW-GW Joint said in post #11, the DfT’s revenge over the ROSCOs for not playing ball in the past? Either way, it’s appalling.

 

[Starmill]

Nothing has been scrapped yet because on the BR list the only large scale withdrawals so far are class 319, and on the Modern list nothing has been withdrawn.

Exactly, I don't see the problem.

It’s seems reasonable to assume that the modern diesels will find alternative work, but they are only a small fraction of the trains on that list. On the other hand, with all the modern stock to be replaced at Greater Anglia, South Western and West Midlands, who could now feel sure about that?

I can't see how DMUs could go without homes. There is still a significant shortage of them. There are plans to run a large number of additional service in the final part of the Northern franchise and elsewhere, especially in Wales, that require more DMUs.

It’s also reasonable to expect that 350/2, 350/4, 360, 360/2, 379 and 707 would find other work, but where will that be? Apart from 707 they’d all need some degree of work to enable them to run on third rail. If the DfT’s Invitation to Tender for South Eastern encourages bidders to propose new trains, they aren’t going to offer existing trains that require conversion and mean they’ll be operating several different types of rolling stock.

Some of those trains will not be available for almost four years! Things will look very different then to how they do now. As to Southeastern we will know that relatively soon and then be in a better position to comment. But don't you think that the owners of the redundant stock will be keenly aware of the Southeasern bidders and their requirements?

I note the suggestion earlier in the thread that additional trains will be needed in the Midlands and North. But with Scotrail, TPE and Northern having already ordered new trains, and Abellio now doing so for the West Midlands, it would be necessary for the DfT to require the companies running those franchises to take on some of the trains about to become surplus. The companies’ preference would be for more trains like the ones they’ll already have. The surplus trains wouldn’t be needed for some years yet, so where would they be stored and how would they be looked after in the meantime? It’s going to be twenty years before ALL of the surplus stock would be needed in the areas suggested, by which time what remains will have deteriorated and have to be scrapped.

It depends how much growth there is. If there is more than expected it's perfectly feasible that TOCs will propose more services or longer trains themselves if there is a large quantity of surplus stock. Apart from 319s there isn't anything surplus at all at the minute.

On the BR list, there are some that have indeed reached the end of their reasonable life. But others have plenty of life left, especially if refurbished, as many 321s are being already. Even class 455 have further potential now that they’ve been retractioned. 323 and 365 are other useful trains that shouldn’t be in any doubt at this time.

Retractioned BR units are indeed a problem but that is entirely down to a commercial decision made to retraction them. Note that this is still happening to the 442s despite them needing far more work than most of the others.

It’s clearly in the interests of recent franchise winners to have bid in the way they did, in view of what the DfT stipulated. They get more modern trains that should become more reliable, need less maintenance, and have lower leasing costs, and they get largely homogenous fleets. But that’s achieved through a shocking waste of money in relation to trains that have at least ten years more life in them – and in some cases many more years than that – and while some of those trains will survive, the realistic consequence of making so many trains surplus to requirements over just a few years is that many of them will be scrapped.

The DfT has a quality weighting for new trains, that is weighed up against the cost of doing so. A franchise can still be won on refurbished older trains if they are cheap enough to make up for fewer 'quality points' from having new ones.

I don't think the Southeastern franchise will have a requirement to procure new trains.

How could we have reached this situation? Does it mean that the DfT is totally incompetent, and could not see where its encouragement of “quality improvements” through new trains was going to lead? Or is it as LNW-GW Joint said in post #11, the DfT’s revenge over the ROSCOs for not playing ball in the past? Either way, it’s appalling.

My main concern is that it isn't sustainable in the supply chain. But the reason for that problem is not that too much new stock is being ordered now, but that not enough new stock was ordered in the past.

 

[Failed Unit]

I would hope that EMT are looking at the DMUs as the current situation is not acceptable.

However my gut feeling is.
1. They won’t be allowed to - make it part of the franchise renewal.
2. Someone else will lease them.
3. When franchise is awarded no spare DMUs so another plan of no growth for the East Midlands as no stock market exists to facilitate it.