Rolling stock requirements 2014-19

[DaveNewcastle]

ATOC has published "Rolling stock requirements 2014-19: An ATOC Overview".

It can be read here.

It compares 2 scenarios which mark the extreme policies of minimal growth of the fleet and high growth during Control Period 5 (CP5). It makes no new assumptions about the scale of the IEP order nor that Thameslink and Crossrail may proceed without further delays.

This forecast is designed to support policy-makers through providing a view on future vehicle numbers, ages, types and the potential implications for costs going forward. This work will also help to guide suppliers and Government, including the Cabinet Office and the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills, regarding the size and nature of the ‘pipeline’ of future rolling stock construction, potential for life extension, and requirements for future re-engineering to meet technical and customer requirements.

 

[Rich McLean]

From reading that, it will be a challenge to replace non DDA compliant rolling stock in time for 2019, seems like they won't put an order in until 2017, as they want to see what is cascaded from electrification first.

If the order is late (which it probably will be), could mean pacers still in operation after 2020, but get around DDA on the grounds that replacements are well on the way and have been ordered.

 

[142094]

Classes 142, 143, 144 - Many likely to be displaced by electrification (or resulting cascades) on Great Western, the Welsh Valleys, and the North West. Some however might remain in service on low-mileage diagrams and on low revenue routes, subject to refurbishment, re-engineering and PRM-TSI.

Code for sending them up north to live out their last days.

Been saying for a while that we'll continue to see Pacers long after the DDA regs dictate they should be on the scrapheap, and I have no doubt that they'll all be put into Northern's depots, or whoever has the Northern franchise after 2014.

 

[WatcherZero]

I think a quite interesting suggestion in this document I hadnt considered is that when IEP comes in we may see short term cascade where a small number of the many surplus/life expired Intercitys would replace Sprinters which would be used to replace Pacers until more stock could be built. Probably in the Northern or Western areas (though Networkers would also be cascaded to Great Western and london surrounds).

Take a pair of Class 43 and pair of Class 90 and rake of Mk3's or mk4's, reduce to 5/6 carriages and cap or derate the locomotives engines regearing for faster acceleration lower top speed (though they would already have a acceleration advantage from shortened rakes) and you would have some great 5 year emergency regional sets.

 

[ainsworth74]

Take a pair of Class 43 and pair of Class 90 and rake of Mk3's or mk4's, reduce to 5/6 carriages and cap or derate the locomotives engines regearing for faster acceleration lower top speed (though they would already have a acceleration advantage from shortened rakes) and you would have some great 5 year emergency regional sets.

Mk3s maybe but there aren't going to be any Mk4s going spare for at least another fifteen years (probably more like twenty). Having said that it's something I've been thinking about, just what do we do with these released HSTs? It does seem likely that we might be seeing them crop up on some lines as a stop gap measure for a few years until more suitable rolling stock can be procured. Of course the question is, how long will they be around? It does seem likely that making them fully DDA compliant will not be cost effective as the likelihood is that they're only going to get another five years or so after replacement but then at the same time that means you're only going to be able to use them for a couple of years before they run foul of DDA.

Either way any use after they leave the GWML/ECML will be shot lived I'm sure. Whilst some posters seem to have grand ideas of the released HSTs soldiering on into the late 2020s and early 2030s on inter-regional routes I would be amazed if that happened in fact, I'd put money on those units that are released being gone by 2025 at the latest.

 

[WatcherZero]

Yes I agree in principle their tired but making the carriages DDA compliant should actually be fairly cheap and easy and you wont have shortages while you take them out of service to do it like you would Pacers. Most Pacer classes the alterations would be physically impossible due to fixed bogies. Would only be a few years stopgap.

 

[jopsuk]

Do the Chiltern modified Mark 3s (with their wider power doors) meet the requirments? if so, it's really something that should have been made a mandatory priority a few years ago- in fact, when the ROSCOs actually suggested doing something similar (around the time of the start of the MTU programme). At the very least, the Great Eastern mainline fleet, long overdue a serious refurbishment, should have the work done. And as it is done to more trains, they'll get faster at it I'm sure...

 

[Nym]

Why is it I'm now envisaging HSTs being used on Waterloo to Exeter runs, and shortened ones with the chilternesk power door modifications and SDO merrily running round interregional routes until 2030...

Provided they're well looked after I can't see why they can't last as long as the A Stock did (60 years) or to be realistic, 25 years after the MTUs have been slotted in.

Wouldn't mind seeing them running routes like this, especially since growth is still likely on a lot of inter regional routes, and their low axle weight is a big advantage. But where is there that they would be of use?

Cardiff Central - Portsmouth Harbour?
Liverpool Lime Street - Norwich?
Cardiff & Manchester to Llandudno and Holyhead?

 

[anthony263]

Why is it I'm now envisaging HSTs being used on Waterloo to Exeter runs, and shortened ones with the chilternesk power door modifications and SDO merrily running round interregional routes until 2030...

Provided they're well looked after I can't see why they can't last as long as the A Stock did (60 years) or to be realistic, 25 years after the MTUs have been slotted in.

Wouldn't mind seeing them running routes like this, especially since growth is still likely on a lot of inter regional routes, and their low axle weight is a big advantage. But where is there that they would be of use?

Cardiff Central - Portsmouth Harbour?
Liverpool Lime Street - Norwich?
Cardiff & Manchester to Llandudno and Holyhead?

I wouldnt mind seeing some used on the Cardiff - Paignton service or maybe a Holyhead - Shrewsbury - Bristol - Weymouth service

 

[WatcherZero]

I was thinking the remaining diesel Transpennine routes.

 

[Drsatan]

Why is it I'm now envisaging HSTs being used on Waterloo to Exeter runs, and shortened ones with the chilternesk power door modifications and SDO merrily running round interregional routes until 2030...

Provided they're well looked after I can't see why they can't last as long as the A Stock did (60 years) or to be realistic, 25 years after the MTUs have been slotted in.

Wouldn't mind seeing them running routes like this, especially since growth is still likely on a lot of inter regional routes, and their low axle weight is a big advantage. But where is there that they would be of use?

Cardiff Central - Portsmouth Harbour?
Liverpool Lime Street - Norwich?
Cardiff & Manchester to Llandudno and Holyhead?

HSTs are barred from using Bursledon Bridge, so if they were to operate services from Cardiff to Portsmouth they would have to run via Eastleigh and Botley.

 

[starrymarkb]

Do the Chiltern modified Mark 3s (with their wider power doors) meet the requirments? if so, it's really something that should have been made a mandatory priority a few years ago- in fact, when the ROSCOs actually suggested doing something similar (around the time of the start of the MTU programme). At the very least, the Great Eastern mainline fleet, long overdue a serious refurbishment, should have the work done. And as it is done to more trains, they'll get faster at it I'm sure...

At the time though it was expected that the IEPs would be starting to enter service about now, the FGW refurb was based on a 7 year lifespan

 

[Nym]

HSTs are barred from using Bursledon Bridge, so if they were to operate services from Cardiff to Portsmouth they would have to run via Eastleigh and Botley.

OK then, so services running round Scotland, on the Chiltern, North Wales, Limited Stops through the Hope Valley..