• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Russia invades Ukraine

kristiang85

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2018
Messages
2,655
Mod Note: Posts #1 - #49 originally in this thread.

Judging from what I'm seeing on the various accounts I follow about this, tonight is going to be a long night for Ukrainians.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

kristiang85

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2018
Messages
2,655
What’s going on?

Basically a state of emergency has been declared, airspace shut by Russia, lots of explosions in Donetsk and other separatist cities, and apparent power shutdowns in Kharkhiv, along with the usual ongoing cyber attacks on Ukrainian structure.

Lots of comments I'm seeing are that people think this is the start of Russia's advance.
 

transportphoto

Established Member
Associate Staff
Quizmaster
Joined
21 Jan 2010
Messages
4,581
Multiple newspapers this morning headlining with something along the lines of ‘the war has begun’. President Putin has declared a “major military operation” against Ukraine.
BBC News timed at 05:40GMT said:
Ukraine: Troops moving in from Belarus
Multiple reports are now quoting Ukrainian officials as saying troops in Belarus are joining the Russian attack, meaning the offensive is now also coming from Ukraine's north.

Belarus, which is on Ukraine's northern border, has long been allied with Russia. Analysts describe the small country as Russia's "client state".

The attack from the north adds to Russia's attacks on Ukraine's east, and Russian troop movement on Odessa in the south.
(https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...1718cc000e9e34d25a795c&pinned_post_type=share)
Ukraine’s President has called for Martial Law to be declared, with the first explosions being heard in Kyiv shortly after 05:00.
BBC News timed at 04:23GMT said:
The first explosions were heard here in Kyiv shortly after five in the morning. There were four or five, muffled and distant. Others followed soon afterwards, the most recent sounded closer but still not in the city centre.

One report suggested the airport might be under attack. A government official dealing with the foreign press said airfields and military headquarters had been attacked.

Other reports have been coming in from across Ukraine, including towns in the east, like Kramatorsk, close to areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Coming shortly after Vladimir Putin’s latest speech, this appears to mark the start of Russia’s long-awaited attack.

(https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...170528571bfc64f8e650d6&pinned_post_type=share)
BBC News timed at 04:50GMT said:
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling on his national security and defence council to declare martial law.

The council is expected to hold an urgent meeting to decide the issue.

(https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...170e1d571bfc64f8e650ef&pinned_post_type=share)
I’ve asked the forum staff to consider splitting this thread to allow a specific discussion thread following tonight’s developments.
 
Last edited:

GusB

Established Member
Associate Staff
Buses & Coaches
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
6,592
Location
Elginshire
I'm currently following the Guardian's live coverage:

We’re beginning to get a picture of what the Russian invasion may be aiming to achieve although with the huge caveat that everything is incredibly chaotic.

CNN has pictures of what appears to be a column of tanks crossing in the area of the Senkivka border crossing with Belarus.


The Ukrainian border guard has said the country has been attacked from the northern border with Belarus and that Belarussian troops appear to be involved in the assault.

If – and again it is a big if – that is what we are seeing then the obvious route south is towards Cherniv which is on the road to Kyiv following the east side of the Dnieper river.

This is not the only axis of attack for Russian forces as far as we can gather. There are also reports of troops crossing further south towards Kharkiv and reports of on going clashes around Lukhansk and Donetsk.

The Russian defence ministry is also saying that Ukraine’s air bases have been neutralised. Bear in mind all of this is on top of air and missile strikes. Even where I’m sitting in Lviv in the far west of Ukraine where a lot of the diplomatic missions have withdrawn to I’m hearing what appears to be intermittent sirens in the distance.

Bear in mind too that we are just three hours into this. This has a long way to go.

Things to be looking out for, I suspect, are whether the Russian forces also make an incursion to the west of the Dnieper river and to the east of Kyiv which will give us a good idea whether Kyiv is one of the main centres of gravity for the invasion.
 

transportphoto

Established Member
Associate Staff
Quizmaster
Joined
21 Jan 2010
Messages
4,581
Listening to BBC Radio Four’s Today programme just now, reference has been made to the US Armed Forces moves into Eastern Europe. It’s reassuring to hear that this is in the reassurance to NATO allies and that the US do not have any intention on getting involved in the Russia vs Ukraine fight because ‘when Americans and Russians start shooting each other, that’s a World War’. I really hope that it doesn’t get to this point, but would Putin be brave enough to attack NATO?

Either way, there’s no denying that this is all really sad news to wake up to this morning. This seems to be a full scale invasion on Ukraine rather the initially discussed invasion on Eastern Ukraine only.
 

daodao

Established Member
Joined
6 Feb 2016
Messages
2,931
Location
Dunham/Bowdon
Sadly, the consequences of the neo-fascist coup in Kiev exactly 8 years ago are coming home to roost. Russia has had enough of what it perceives as an insolent regime under the direction of Brussels and Washington, and now seems to have decided to use all available means to bring it to heel. The Ukraine is waking up to smell the coffee.
 

GusB

Established Member
Associate Staff
Buses & Coaches
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
6,592
Location
Elginshire
Sadly, the consequences of the neo-fascist coup in Kiev exactly 8 years ago are coming home to roost. Russia has had enough of what it perceives as an insolent regime under the direction of Brussels and Washington, and now seems to have decided to use all available means to bring it to heel. The Ukraine is waking up to smell the coffee.
It's Russia that needs to be brought to heel. And it's Ukraine, not The Ukraine, as you've been told so many times.
 

transportphoto

Established Member
Associate Staff
Quizmaster
Joined
21 Jan 2010
Messages
4,581
I can't believe our powerful barrage of punishing sanctions has not deterred Russia.
I’m not sure whether your comment is served with a dose of sarcasm or not… but there is the argument that Russia has budgeted in any such possible economic sanctions into its decision making. Putin, sadly, wasn’t born yesterday.
 

YorkshireBear

Established Member
Joined
23 Jul 2010
Messages
8,686
I’m not sure whether your comment is served with a dose of sarcasm or not… but there is the argument that Russia has budgeted in any such possible economic sanctions into its decision making. Putin, sadly, wasn’t born yesterday.
There was a great article on the BBC about how he has altered the Russian economy to become much more resilient to any sanctions the west can put on them. Like you say, he was not born yesterday. Annex Crimea, see what sanctions he gets, adapt the economy to be resilient to them and go again.
 

Wilts Wanderer

Established Member
Joined
21 Nov 2016
Messages
2,484
Sadly, the consequences of the neo-fascist coup in Kiev exactly 8 years ago are coming home to roost. Russia has had enough of what it perceives as an insolent regime under the direction of Brussels and Washington, and now seems to have decided to use all available means to bring it to heel. The Ukraine is waking up to smell the coffee.

While I disagree with the pro-Putin sentiment, there is an element of truth to the justifications that Russia are using to justify this naked land grab. This is an interesting article in Reuters from 4 years ago, describing how, following Russia’s invasion of Crimea, far-right vigilante groups have been subsumed into the Ukraine military / police structures to bolster them (so, ironically, Putin is partly responsible for their legitimisation);



As Ukraine’s struggle against Russia and its proxies continues, Kiev must also contend with a growing problem behind the front lines: far-right vigilantes who are willing to use intimidation and even violence to advance their agendas, and who often do so with the tacit approval of law enforcement agencies.

A January 28 demonstration, in Kiev, by 600 members of the so-called “National Militia,” a newly-formed ultranationalist group that vows “to use force to establish order,” illustrates this threat. While the group’s Kiev launch was peaceful, National Militia members in balaclavas stormed a city council meeting in the central Ukrainian town of Cherkasy the following day, skirmishing with deputies and forcing them to pass a new budget.

Many of the National Militia's members come from the Azov movement, one of the 30-odd privately-funded “volunteer battalions” that, in the early days of the war, helped the regular army to defend Ukrainian territory against Russia's separatist proxies. Although Azov uses Nazi-era symbolism and recruits neo-Nazis into its ranks, a recent article in Foreign Affairs downplayed any risks the group might pose, pointing out that, like other volunteer militias, Azov has been “reined in” through its integration into Ukraine’s armed forces. While it’s true that private militias no longer rule the battlefront, it’s the home front that Kiev needs to worry about now.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin’s seizure of Crimea four years ago first exposed the decrepit condition of Ukraine’s armed forces, right-wing militias such as Azov and Right Sector stepped into the breach, fending off the Russian-backed separatists while Ukraine’s regular military regrouped. Though, as a result, many Ukrainians continue to regard the militias with gratitude and admiration, the more extreme among these groups promote an intolerant and illiberal ideology that will endanger Ukraine in the long term. Since the Crimean crisis, the militias have been formally integrated into Ukraine’s armed forces, but some have resisted full integration: Azov, for example, runs its own children’s training camp, and the careers section instructs recruits who wish to transfer to Azov from a regular military unit.

According to Freedom House’s Ukraine project director Matthew Schaaf, “numerous organized radical right-wing groups exist in Ukraine, and while the volunteer battalions may have been officially integrated into state structures, some of them have since spun off political and non-profit structures to implement their vision.” Schaaf noted that “an increase in patriotic discourse supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia has coincided with an apparent increase in both public hate speech, sometimes by public officials and magnified by the media, as well as violence towards vulnerable groups such as the LGBT community,” an observation that is supported by a recent Council of Europe study.

In recent months, Ukraine has experienced a wave of unchecked vigilantism. Institute Respublica, a local pro-democracy NGO, reported that activists are frequently harassed by vigilantes when holding legal meetings or rallies related to politically-controversial positions, such as the promotion of LGBT rights or opposition to the war. Azov and other militias have attacked anti-fascist demonstrations, city council meetings, media outlets, art exhibitions, foreign students and Roma. Progressive activists describe a new climate of fear that they say has been intensifying ever since last year's near-fatal stabbing of anti-war activist Stas Serhiyenko, which is believed to have been perpetrated by an extremist group named C14 (the name refers to a 14-word slogan popular among white supremacists). Brutal attacks this month on International Women’s Day marches in several Ukrainian cities prompted an unusually forceful statement from Amnesty International, which warned that "the Ukrainian state is rapidly losing its monopoly on violence.”

Ukraine is not the only country that must contend with a resurgent far right. But Kiev’s recent efforts to incorporate independent armed groups into its regular armed forces, as well as a continuing national sense of indebtedness to the militias for their defense of the homeland, make addressing the ultranationalist threat considerably more complicated than it is elsewhere. According to Schaaf and the Institute Respublica, Ukrainian extremists are rarely punished for acts of violence. In some cases — such as C14's January attack on a remembrance gathering for two murdered journalists — police actually detain peaceful demonstrators instead.

To be clear, the Kremlin’s claims that Ukraine is a hornets’ nest of fascists are false: far-right parties performed poorly in Ukraine’s last parliamentary elections, and Ukrainians reacted with alarm to the National Militia’s demonstration in Kiev. But connections between law enforcement agencies and extremists give Ukraine’s Western allies ample reason for concern. C14 and Kiev's city government recently signed an agreement allowing C14 to establish a "municipal guard" to patrol the streets; three such militia-run guard forces are already registered in Kiev, and at least 21 operate in other cities.

In an ideal world, President Petro Poroshenko would purge the police and the interior ministry of far-right sympathizers, including Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who has close ties to Azov leader Andriy Biletsky, as well as Sergei Korotkykh, an Azov veteran who is now a high-ranking police official. But Poroshenko would risk major repercussions if he did so; Avakov is his chief political rival, and the ministry he runs controls the police, the National Guard and several former militias.

As one Ukrainian analyst noted in December, control of these forces make Avakov extremely powerful and Poroshenko’s presidency might not be strong enough to withstand the kind of direct confrontation with Avakov that an attempt to oust him or to strike at his power base could well produce. Poroshenko has endured frequent verbal threats, including calls for revolution, from ultranationalist groups, so he may believe that he needs Avakov to keep them in check.

Avakov’s Peoples’ Party status as the main partner in Ukraine’s parliamentary coalition increases Avakov’s leverage over Poroshenko’s Bloc. An attempt to fire Avakov could imperil Poroshenko’s slim legislative majority, and lead to early parliamentary elections. Given Poroshenko’s current unpopularity, this is a scenario he will likely try to avoid.

Despite his weak position, Poroshenko still has some options for reducing the threat from the far right. Though Avakov controls the Ukraine’s police and National Guard, Poroshenko still commands Ukraine’s security and intelligence services, the SBU, and could instruct the agency to cut its ties with C14 and other extremist groups. Poroshenko should also express public support for marginalized groups like the Roma and LGBT communities, and affirm his commitment to protecting their rights.

Western diplomats and human rights organizations must urge Ukraine’s government to uphold the rule of law and to stop allowing the far right to act with impunity. International donors can help by funding more initiatives like the United States Agency for International Development’s projects supporting training for Ukrainian lawyers and human rights defenders, and improving equitable access to the judicial system for marginalized communities.

There’s no easy way to eradicate the virulent far-right extremism that has been poisoning Ukrainian politics and public life, but without vigorous and immediate efforts to counteract it, it may soon endanger the state itself.
[\QUOTE]
 

daodao

Established Member
Joined
6 Feb 2016
Messages
2,931
Location
Dunham/Bowdon
It's Russia that needs to be brought to heel.
And how might that be done, short of WW3? The EU/NATO have drawn a red line on their co-terminus eastern border, so I expect nothing to be done more than a few paltry sanctions. Putin is clever and wily, and has made a calculated decision in the full expectation that he will be successful.

The Zionist regime has been occupying territory beyond its internationally recognised borders since 1967, and annexed parts of this territory, but what has the international community effectively done about it? In March 2019, the USA, which previously considered the Golan Heights to be occupied, became the first country to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the territory. Similarly Turkey, a full member of NATO, has controlled the nominally independent but internationally unrecognised Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus since 1974.
 

davews

Member
Joined
24 Apr 2021
Messages
650
Location
Bracknell
I sincerely hope the west doesn't get embroiled in this. I can never support war in any form and to say I am devastated by this morning's developments is an understatement.
 

transportphoto

Established Member
Associate Staff
Quizmaster
Joined
21 Jan 2010
Messages
4,581
Could the broadcasting of "Russia Today" be formally ended. I note on Freeview it is still broadcasting this morning on channel 324 prior to the Al Jazeera news channel 325.
This should be already under consideration by Ofcom, the BBC reported this yesterday:
BBC News 23rd Feb said:
The government has asked media watchdog Ofcom to review the Russia Today (RT) news channel's broadcasts in the UK.
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries told Ofcom the channel "is demonstrably part of Russia's global disinformation campaign" during the Ukraine crisis.
"It is essential that the UK looks to limit Russia's ability to spread their propaganda at home," she said.
Ofcom said it has "already stepped up our oversight of coverage" of the crisis by broadcasters in the UK.
The Russian foreign ministry said it would take retaliatory steps against British journalists if the UK restricts Russian media.
The Kremlin-backed channel, which is available to millions of homes in the UK, said the UK government was interfering in institutions like Ofcom that were supposedly free from political pressure.

(https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-60495417)
 

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
32,369
Location
A semi-rural part of north-west England
The Zionist regime has been occupying territory beyond its internationally recognised borders since 1967, and annexed parts of this territory, but what has the international community effectively done about it?
Is this a tad off thread? Israel as a country did not exist until after WWII and has fought off four wars against them by Arab states since that time. What connections does Israel have with Ukraine at present and were you making reference to what happened in WWII in the combat between Germany and Russia and events concerning the fate of the indigenous Jewish population?
 

adc82140

Established Member
Joined
10 May 2008
Messages
2,929
I think there's an element of truth in comments that Putin has somewhat lost a grip of reality. Sky News were speculating that two years of near isolation of a Covid-paranoid Putin had taken its toll on his decision making abilities, and he has become Ukraine obsessed.
 

squizzler

Established Member
Joined
4 Jan 2017
Messages
1,903
Location
Jersey, Channel Islands
I sincerely hope the west doesn't get embroiled in this. I can never support war in any form and to say I am devastated by this morning's developments is an understatement.
I sincerely hope it does. The free world did not start this fight but we gotta finish it now.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,720
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
I think there's an element of truth in comments that Putin has somewhat lost a grip of reality. Sky News were speculating that two years of near isolation of a Covid-paranoid Putin had taken its toll on his decision making abilities, and he has become Ukraine obsessed.
I'd disagree with that. It occurs to me that Putin has observed the fractured & disorganised response from western nations to the covid pandemic, and calculated that the west's response would be equally disorganised & ineffective. This is a very calculated move by Putin.
 

dk1

Veteran Member
Joined
2 Oct 2009
Messages
15,913
Location
East Anglia
Brent Crude has shot passed $100 a barrel this morning & the FTSE is expected to drop at least 150pts at opening.
 

squizzler

Established Member
Joined
4 Jan 2017
Messages
1,903
Location
Jersey, Channel Islands
It occurs to me that Putin has observed the fractured & disorganised response from western nations to the covid pandemic, and calculated that the west's response would be equally disorganised & ineffective.
There is something to be said that deposing of Putin could be an excellent catalyst to sorting out some of the structural problems affecting free societies, much as WW2 led to the formation of the welfare state.

Perhaps deposing this twerp could be the warm-up to dealing with the bigger global issues of global heating and inequality?
 

Wilts Wanderer

Established Member
Joined
21 Nov 2016
Messages
2,484
Brent Crude has shot passed $100 a barrel this morning & the FTSE is expected to drop at least 150pts at opening.
Yes, I imagine some people will be making a lot of money today (at the expense of others.) The dispassionate part of me wonders how many of them have links to Russian interests.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,720
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
There is something to be said that deposing of Putin could be an excellent catalyst to sorting out some of the structural problems affecting free societies, much as WW2 led to the formation of the welfare state.

Perhaps deposing this twerp could be the warm-up to dealing with the bigger global issues of global heating and inequality?
Let's just say if I were a leader of a western nation, I'd be looking at Putin's future with extreme prejudice.
 

Top