Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

Did Russia offer a ceasefire during the talks? No, they did not. Therefore they were never serious about finding a solution during the talks, and unless they are put under enough military pressure, they never will be.

Which is why I think the west has to threaten military action against Russian military forces. Only that kind of pressure may result in a quickly implemented ceasefire and possible negotiated settlement.

But as it is now, Putin will continue to try to expand his area of control in Ukraine by means of military force.

We can hope that the Ukrainian military can push the Russian army back to the borders, or at least, the lines that existed in February of this year. But at the moment, it’s not looking like they are able to do this in the south.

Even though the Ukrainian forces in Mariupol desperately need supplies and relief.

So this war may well drag on for a long time. With Putin refusing to give up.

 

[najaB]

If it is the case then I can see the war in Ukraine lasting months or possibly even years.

If it continues to be the case that Russia is losing more men and equipment than Ukraine is then Russia literally can't afford for it to drag on for years. Especially as the EU will eventually be able to replace Russian energy supplies.

 

[AlterEgo]

I thought this was an interesting link, a list of military aid to Ukraine by country.

The weapons and military aid the world is giving Ukraine

More than 25 countries have joined in delivering support to Ukraine’s war effort. Here's what we know.

www.politico.com

Turkey's shipment of drones has proven to be extremely effective so far. Interesting how their relatively modest contribution (I assume because they are attempting to be less partial, as potential peace brokers) has delivered such vital assistance to Ukraine. I read about their use of the drones nearly daily now.

 

[najaB]

I read about their use of the drones nearly daily now.

Keep in mind that Ukraine bought several (around 20?) Bayraktar TB2 drones some years back. So Turkey may 'just' be replacing losses.

 

[JonasB]

Swedish media now report that Sweden and Finland plan to formally apply for membership during the Nato meeting in Madrid in June.

It has not been confirmed officially though.

 

[AlterEgo]

Keep in mind that Ukraine bought several (around 20?) Bayraktar TB2 drones some years back. So Turkey may 'just' be replacing losses.

If so, it shouldn't be considered "aid" as per the article. But we digress!

 

[DustyBin]

If it continues to be the case that Russia is losing more men and equipment than Ukraine is then Russia literally can't afford for it to drag on for years. Especially as the EU will eventually be able to replace Russian energy supplies.

True, and in addition to this there's always a chance that Russia won't be able to sustain it's narrative domestically. There must already be a lot of dead soldier's relatives asking whether this was really the plan....

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

There's also the question of how other EU member states would respond. Whilst the EU is not a defensive alliance, I find it inconceivable that other EU member states would simply watch on during an invasion.

But if Marine le Pen wins the French presidency I think that EU cohesion on Ukraine could be somewhat undermined.

Swedish media now report that Sweden and Finland plan to formally apply for membership during the Nato meeting in Madrid in June.

It has not been confirmed officially though.

What exactly does the approval process for a membership application involve? With the appropriate back-channel diplomacy could such an application be approved more or less immediately?

True, and in addition to this there's always a chance that Russia won't be able to sustain it's narrative domestically. There must already be a lot of dead soldier's relatives asking whether this was really the plan....

According to this from the BBC the majority of the ordinary Russian population has been so indoctrinated by Putinist propaganda that they really believe that Ukraine is rampant with Nazism and that all reports of war crimes by Russian military personnel must be fake news. Short of either a complete Russian military capitulation or Putin dying unexpectedly it seems unlikely that popular support for the war will diminish at all.

 

[DustyBin]

According to this from the BBC the majority of the ordinary Russian population has been so indoctrinated by Putinist propaganda that they really believe that Ukraine is rampant with Nazism and that all reports of war crimes by Russian military personnel must be fake news. Short of either a complete Russian military capitulation or Putin dying unexpectedly it seems unlikely that popular support for the war will diminish at all.

You're right but I think there are a significant number of people who simply daren't speak out. The regime won't be able to hide the bloodbath indefinitely which may lead to more and more people asking questions. There's only a chance of this happening, I'm not suggesting it's probable by any means, but there is a historical precedent in the form of Afghanistan.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

You're right but I think there are a significant number of people who simply daren't speak out. The regime won't be able to hide the bloodbath indefinitely which may lead to more and more people asking questions. There's only a chance of this happening, I'm not suggesting it's probable by any means, but there is a historical precedent in the form of Afghanistan.

Your mention of Afghanistan reminds me of this: it took only 3 weeks in Ukraine for Russia to suffer the same number of casualties as that suffered by the Soviet army in 10 years in Afghanistan. Of course the other way in which Russian public opinion might change a little would be if the physical conflict started to affect actual Russian territory. So far the only apparent instance of that was the attack on a fuel depot in Belgorod but even though the Russians were happy to blame Ukraine rather than "unknown terrorists" given that no residential property was affected it seems not to have moved the public opinion needle at all. Essentially Putin has convinced the masses to take on a siege mentality when it comes to the "west" (meaning all nations, except Belarus, geographically west of Russia) and therefore he can do no wrong regardless of what is actually happening on the ground.

 

[DarloRich]

According to this from the BBC the majority of the ordinary Russian population has been so indoctrinated by Putinist propaganda that they really believe that Ukraine is rampant with Nazism and that all reports of war crimes by Russian military personnel must be fake news. Short of either a complete Russian military capitulation or Putin dying unexpectedly it seems unlikely that popular support for the war will diminish at all.

There will have to be a khrushchevian style denunciation of Putin by the new man. it will be equally shocking to the people of Russia as the original was.

 

[brad465]

Roman Abramovich has just had $7bn worth of assets frozen in Jersey:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

A subscription to the Financial Times provides you with the insights and perspective you need to succeed, now.

on.ft.com

A court in Jersey has imposed an order freezing more than $7bn in assets linked to Roman Abramovich in a significant blow to the Russian oligarch’s fortune.

 

[dakta]

7 billion that's £250 for every household to combat the fuel price rises right there! (using googled stats of about 27.8m households)

When Russia does energy aid better

(this post is VERY tongue in cheek)

 

[najaB]

7 billion that's £250 for every household to combat the fuel price rises right there! (using googled stats of about 27.8m households)

When Russia does energy aid better

(this post is VERY tongue in cheek)

That's enough to repay the £200 towards energy bills and have change left over.

 

[dakta]

Gives you the scale of it doesn't it, in proprietary units the government assistance to prevent hypothermia in a cost of living crises is circa 0.8 oligarchs

 

[najaB]

I don't have a link, but apparently everyone's favourite right-wing nutjob (of the US variety) Marjorie Taylor Greene has released a video saying that the US should stop providing assistance to Ukraine because there's no possible way they can win and it just prolongs the war and increases suffering.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't have a link, but apparently everyone's favourite right-wing nutjob (of the US variety) Marjorie Taylor Greene has released a video saying that the US should stop providing assistance to Ukraine because there's no possible way they can win and it just prolongs the war and increases suffering.

I don't think that argument should be seen as a nutjob one, to be honest, just because of who made it. If Russia had marched in and taken it in a few days as Putin thought they would, the civilian suffering would have been far smaller. It's a valid argument. In the end it's down to the Ukrainian people, and they have chosen to fight despite the considerable downsides of doing so, and given that I think they deserve support.

 

[najaB]

In the end it's down to the Ukrainian people, and they have chosen to fight despite the considerable downsides of doing so, and given that I think they deserve support.

But that's exactly the point. She is saying that the USA should stop supporting Ukraine even though they want to continue the fight.

 

[Cowley]

But that's exactly the point. She is saying that the USA should stop supporting Ukraine even though they want to continue the fight.

I’d say doing or believing pretty much the exact opposite of what she does or believes in is 99 times out of 100 going to be the correct course of action.
She’s just an unbelievable piece of work isn’t she? Mind bogglingly bonkers!

 

[najaB]

She’s just an unbelievable piece of work isn’t she? Mind bogglingly bonkers!

Between this and her being a headline speaker at an event where there was open chanting of "Putin!, Putin!" (not to mention her support for the Jan 6th insurrectionists) my mind boggles how anyone who claims to be an American patriot can give her any support at all.

 

[68000]

I don't think that argument should be seen as a nutjob one, to be honest, just because of who made it. If Russia had marched in and taken it in a few days as Putin thought they would, the civilian suffering would have been far smaller. It's a valid argument. In the end it's down to the Ukrainian people, and they have chosen to fight despite the considerable downsides of doing so, and given that I think they deserve support.

People who use that argument are usually victim blaming as they give Russia a free pass

 

[birchesgreen]

Between this and her being a headline speaker at an event where there was open chanting of "Putin!, Putin!" (not to mention her support for the Jan 6th insurrectionists) my mind boggles how anyone who claims to be an American patriot can give her any support at all.

Same party as Reagan and Nixon, it is pretty astonishing.

 

[JonasB]

I don't have a link, but apparently everyone's favourite right-wing nutjob (of the US variety) Marjorie Taylor Greene has released a video saying that the US should stop providing assistance to Ukraine because there's no possible way they can win and it just prolongs the war and increases suffering.

A left wing irish MEP said the same thing a couple of days ago.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513268100547985413

 

[68000]

A left wing irish MEP said the same thing a couple of days ago.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513268100547985413

Daly is a left-wing nutjob

 

[Cloud Strife]

A left wing irish MEP said the same thing a couple of days ago.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513268100547985413

V24 is a Polish propaganda outlet that repeats Polish government propaganda as gospel, so be careful with it.

Between this and her being a headline speaker at an event where there was open chanting of "Putin!, Putin!" (not to mention her support for the Jan 6th insurrectionists) my mind boggles how anyone who claims to be an American patriot can give her any support at all.

I've given up trying to understand what is going on in the minds of these people. She's an absolute cancer at the heart of the Republican Party, and it shows just how low Trump has dragged them since 2016.

 

[gg1]

If Russia had marched in and taken it in a few days as Putin thought they would, the civilian suffering would have been far smaller.

Only if you take a short term view. If the Ukrainianians had just rolled over and and given up as Putin hoped it would have indeed have lessened the civilian suffering over the past 7 weeks BUT that would only have served to embolden him leading to the inevitable invasion of another of his neighbours, not to mention the ongoing oppression of any Ukrainians who objected to their country either being absorbed into Russia or being led by a Putin installed lapdog.

 

[dgl]

The thing is would Putin have just invaded, taken over the country snd left everyone to get on with their lives, or would he have invaded, taken over the country and then got his army to kill loads of Ukrainians to "put them in their place".
It's no ouside the realms of possibility that the continued fighting might not be having as bin an effect on the amunt of people killedas you might think.

 

[gg1]

The thing is would Putin have just invaded, taken over the country snd left everyone to get on with their lives, or would he have invaded, taken over the country and then got his army to kill loads of Ukrainians to "put them in their place".
It's no ouside the realms of possibility that the continued fighting might not be having as bin an effect on the amunt of people killedas you might think.

Well no, I don't think he would immediately after victory have killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilains merely to make a point, but over the course of say a decade, the death toll from suppression of dissent could easily end up exceeding the numbers who will have died by the time this war is finally over.

When you factor in the casualties resulting from his next 'special military operation' to 'de-nazify' a neighbouring nation (something I'm absolutely convinced he would have done a few years down the line if the takeover of Ukraine had gone to plan) the death toll would rise further.

 

[najaB]

but over the course of say a decade, the death toll from suppression of dissent could easily end up exceeding the numbers who will have died by the time this war is finally over.

Precisely. I don't think that the Ukrainian people would simply have accepted a return to Moscow rule. There would have been a low-level insurgency that made the Northern Ireland 'Troubles' look like a mere spat between friends.

 

[dakta]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61101906

Another potential motivator for the Ukrainians on BBC News -
apparently Russia's Moskva cruiser is on fire and in a bad way with Ukraine saying sorry not sorry.

From what I can gather this is one of two ships that attacked snake island earlier in the super special war operation thingy, with the other reported damaged earlier in the super special war operation thingy but later disputed