Russia invades Ukraine

[Ediswan]

Was it ever not thus?

World-scale blocs are recent. I doubt Wellington and Napoleon had chosen sides in whatever disputes were taking place in China.

 

[najaB]

Another series of large explosions in Crimea. Apparently due to a fire, according to a statement released by the Russian authorities:

On 16 August at 06:15 Moscow time, a fire took place in the Maysky area in the Dzhankoi district of Crimea on the territory of a temporary ammunition storage site at a military base.

As a result of the fire, there was a detonation of the ammunition stored. According to initial reports from the scene, there were no serious injuries. Measures are being taken to extinguish the fire. The causes are being established."

Nothing to see here, move along.

World-scale blocs are recent. I doubt Wellington and Napoleon had chosen sides in whatever disputes were taking place in China.

They've been a feature since at least the mid/late 1700s when the European powers split the world between them - e.g. Britain vs Russia in Afghanistan in the 1800s or France vs Spain vs Britain in the Caribbean in the 1700s.

The difference now is that people know what's happening in China in pretty much real time, rather than weeks or months later.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Another series of large explosions in Crimea. Apparently due to a fire, according to a statement released by the Russian authorities:

I look forward to the latest statement by Ukraine about the dangers of smoking in such places.

 

[Giugiaro]

Must have been the smoker from the Moskva that was moved to Crimea.
The Tobacco strikes back!!!

 

[TheEdge]

Russia really needs to move its smoking shelters away from its ammo dumps.

Very silly placement.

 

[Cloud Strife]

One interesting development here is that it's really not clear exactly how Ukraine is carrying out these attacks. They're beyond the range of what has been publicly sent to Ukraine, but it's clear that whatever it is, Russia cannot defend against it. The other thing is that the playbook has been torn up, and now Crimea appears to be very much in the game. There's a strong argument that right now, it suits Ukraine more to blow up things at will in Crimea than to actually fight back in Kherson, and the panic in Crimea will only intensify if the Kerch Bridge gets taken out. I imagine the Russian military planners are very, very worried about this new capability of the Ukrainian side, especially as we can see that the S-300 system is useless.

IMO, I suspect that the US has sent something with a longer range, but to be used only on targets selected by the US. The Americans will be capable of identifying targets in real-time, and the Russians *still* haven't learnt that keeping aircraft outdoors is a terrible idea. That would explain why there's little to no information about how these attacks are being carried out, although satellite pictures clearly show that the Ukrainian side is in possession of something that allows them to make long-distance targetted attacks.

The problem is that none of these attacks pose a serious threat to Russia. They scare Russians, but Ukraine will need a lot more firepower to actually remove them.

 

[adc82140]

None of the explosions in Crimea have been caused by missiles. You can't hide an incoming projectile. There is no secret US supply. What we are likely seeing is the work of saboteurs, either directly from Ukraine, or local sympathisers.

 

[Cloud Strife]

None of the explosions in Crimea have been caused by missiles. You can't hide an incoming projectile. There is no secret US supply. What we are likely seeing is the work of saboteurs, either directly from Ukraine, or local sympathisers.

That seems a bold claim to make, especially in light of the satellite images that show how the attacks were aimed: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62500560

The precision here is far too high to be the result of saboteurs. Ukraine certainly wants Russia to think that, but given that the S-300 has proven to simply not work against Western weapons, it seems far more likely that Ukraine has been equipped with something tasty.

 

[najaB]

None of the explosions in Crimea have been caused by missiles. You can't hide an incoming projectile.

So it's a good thing that any incoming projectile will have been cleverly disguised by hiding its fragments in and among the debris of whatever it is that they blew up!

 

[Trackman]

None of the explosions in Crimea have been caused by missiles. You can't hide an incoming projectile. There is no secret US supply. What we are likely seeing is the work of saboteurs, either directly from Ukraine, or local sympathisers.

That's saved me a post. It was a good one too.
Let's just say if they used US missile launchers /missiles or even NATO members ones, They would say 'Sod off, no more help, we told you not to target Russian territory'

 

[najaB]

Let's just say if they used US missile launchers /missiles or even NATO members ones, They would say 'Sod off, no more help, we told you not to target Russian territory'

Last time I checked, Crimea was occupied Ukrainian territory, not Russia. Russia is a couple hundred kilometres to the east.

 

[dakta]

I was going to say

 

[DynamicSpirit]

So it's a good thing that any incoming projectile will have been cleverly disguised by hiding its fragments in and among the debris of whatever it is that they blew up!

I suspect it's more that you'd see them coming in. The attack on the airport looks very much like it was multiple explosions, not just one, and it would be extremely hard to get all the missiles to land at exactly the same moment. As soon as the first explosion happened, people (such as all the nearby Russian tourists) would be looking and would therefore be likely to see the subsequent missiles arriving. Since there were - so far as we can tell - zero such sightings, it seems reasonable to conclude it wasn't missiles.

 

[najaB]

As soon as the first explosion happened, people (such as all the nearby Russian tourists) would be looking and would therefore be likely to see the subsequent missiles arriving.

Russia knew that the Antonovsky Bridge was a target, had their air defences in place, waiting for the attack and they still couldn't stop it being hit. Again.

 

[Trackman]

Last time I checked, Crimea was occupied Ukrainian territory, not Russia. Russia is a couple hundred kilometres to the east.

Yes.. should have been clearer- just as it stands now it is annexed and not accepted by the wider world well apart from Putin who says it's part of Russia.

 

[TwoYellas]

Apparently Ukraine is quite a mixed picture in terms of different loyalties. That's why I believe it's more complicated than just 'A drives B out and problem solved'. I reckon it's going to need some far sighted statesmen or women to solve the issues in the Donbass and Crimea. Otherwise there could be the seeds for long term civil strife and misery there for years to come.

 

[najaB]

Apparently Ukraine is quite a mixed picture in terms of different loyalties. That's why I believe it's more complicated than just 'A drives B out and problem solved'. I reckon it's going to need some far sighted statesmen or women to solve the issues in the Donbass and Crimea. Otherwise there could be the seeds for long term civil strife and misery there for years to come.

Oh, without a doubt. I suspect that Ukraine's future is even more federal than it had been previously.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Oh, without a doubt. I suspect that Ukraine's future is even more federal than it had been previously.

There is an argument that Ukraine should have been a federation from 1991 onwards, but the centralised system suited those who wanted to steal from it. Crimea is an autonomous republic, but that autonomy was never delivered in any meaningful way. However, I don't believe that there's any chance for federalism now. Ukraine won't trust any federal units, especially with how quickly some people changed sides.

That's saved me a post. It was a good one too.
Let's just say if they used US missile launchers /missiles or even NATO members ones, They would say 'Sod off, no more help, we told you not to target Russian territory'

Except it's not Russian territory and not recognised as Russian territory. Crimea is fair game, because it's occupied territory.

I suspect it's more that you'd see them coming in. The attack on the airport looks very much like it was multiple explosions, not just one, and it would be extremely hard to get all the missiles to land at exactly the same moment. As soon as the first explosion happened, people (such as all the nearby Russian tourists) would be looking and would therefore be likely to see the subsequent missiles arriving. Since there were - so far as we can tell - zero such sightings, it seems reasonable to conclude it wasn't missiles.

One suggestion is that a form of a cluster missile was used, which would only require one missile. People wouldn't see multiple missiles that way, although it would mean that the S-300 is performing even worse than expected. It seems that cluster munitions can be used with HIMARS, but it's not clear if they're capable of delivering such a precise attack. But then again, with the HIMARS ripping through the Russian air defences, who knows what is being tested on the battlefield?

One thing is clear: if this is a missile, then Russia has every reason to be afraid.

 

[Trackman]

Except it's not Russian territory and not recognised as Russian territory. Crimea is fair game, because it's occupied territory.

I've mentioned this up thread

 

[takno]

One thing is clear: if this is a missile, then Russia has every reason to be afraid.

To be fair, if it's saboteurs then they have quite a lot of reason to be afraid too. Especially if they're Russians

 

[ainsworth74]

One suggestion is that a form of a cluster missile was used, which would only require one missile. People wouldn't see multiple missiles that way, although it would mean that the S-300 is performing even worse than expected. It seems that cluster munitions can be used with HIMARS, but it's not clear if they're capable of delivering such a precise attack.

GMLRS (the munition that is fired by HIMARS) is more than accurate enough for the mission but the issue is it lacks the range. The airbase is a couple of hundred kilometres from Ukrainian controlled territory and GMLRS tops out at just shy of 100km at maximum range.

 

[Cloud Strife]

To be fair, if it's saboteurs then they have quite a lot of reason to be afraid too. Especially if they're Russians

I mean, we know the Russian defences are poor, but it just seems rather unlikely that saboteurs could get so close to execute a precision attack like that.

GMLRS (the munition that is fired by HIMARS) is more than accurate enough for the mission but the issue is it lacks the range. The airbase is a couple of hundred kilometres from Ukrainian controlled territory and GMLRS tops out at just shy of 100km at maximum range.

That's what I can't wrap my head around. The fact that we haven't seen many more attacks of this nature makes me think that we're seeing something experimental, such as the US trying out the capabilities of the PrSM?

 

[ainsworth74]

That's what I can't wrap my head around. The fact that we haven't seen many more attacks of this nature makes me think that we're seeing something experimental, such as the US trying out the capabilities of the PrSM?

My money is on Ukraine having gotten some of their indigenously produced Grom missiles into service. They'd have the range and capabilities for the strike on that airbase in Crimea. But as they weren't in service when the war started the numbers available will only be very limited and kept strictly for extremely high value targets.

 

[Yew]

My money is on Ukraine having gotten some of their indigenously produced Grom missiles into service. They'd have the range and capabilities for the strike on that airbase in Crimea. But as they weren't in service when the war started the numbers available will only be very limited and kept strictly for extremely high value targets.

I think this is likely the result. The Ukrainians have extremely limited numbers of capable domestic and ex soviet missiles. Either that, or something related to the Air Force is likely responsible for these incidents in crimea.

 

[Cloud Strife]

My money is on Ukraine having gotten some of their indigenously produced Grom missiles into service. They'd have the range and capabilities for the strike on that airbase in Crimea. But as they weren't in service when the war started the numbers available will only be very limited and kept strictly for extremely high value targets.

At this moment, there are two real possibilities: either the Americans helped get the Grom missiles into service, or ATACMS has been deployed. The special forces theory simply doesn't add up when you look at the damage at Saki, as it would require a substantial amount of explosives that simply couldn't be carried in.

The Americans are denying that American weapons were involved, which points towards the Grom missiles even more. It seems very plausible that the Americans have supplied whatever Ukraine needed to get them into service, especially as it would only involve components and not full missiles. What must be frightening for Russian military planners is that the S-300/S-400 systems failed to intercept whatever it was, despite Crimea being heavily protected with those systems.

There's more and more talk from the Ukrainian side about the Kerch Bridge, which I interpret as a deliberate tactic. Russia will protect the bridge at all costs, tying up manpower and weapons there and keeping them far away from the front line.

 

[Yew]

At this moment, there are two real possibilities: either the Americans helped get the Grom missiles into service, or ATACMS has been deployed. The special forces theory simply doesn't add up when you look at the damage at Saki, as it would require a substantial amount of explosives that simply couldn't be carried in.

The Americans are denying that American weapons were involved, which points towards the Grom missiles even more. It seems very plausible that the Americans have supplied whatever Ukraine needed to get them into service, especially as it would only involve components and not full missiles. What must be frightening for Russian military planners is that the S-300/S-400 systems failed to intercept whatever it was, despite Crimea being heavily protected with those systems.

There's more and more talk from the Ukrainian side about the Kerch Bridge, which I interpret as a deliberate tactic. Russia will protect the bridge at all costs, tying up manpower and weapons there and keeping them far away from the front line.

I think it’s more a case that with HiMars being available, the Ukrainians aren’t having to ration them as much. himars can take care of tactical needs, with Grom taking in these larger strategic targets.

You’re right about Kerch though, even mentioning it can tie up a lot of Russian resources “just in case” - Even if Crimea isn’t high on the priority list.

 

[TheEdge]

At this moment, there are two real possibilities: either the Americans helped get the Grom missiles into service, or ATACMS has been deployed. The special forces theory simply doesn't add up when you look at the damage at Saki, as it would require a substantial amount of explosives that simply couldn't be carried in.

I'd agree. This is an Argentinian Pucara after the SAS raid on Pebble Island. That's the damage that gets done to aircraft hit by special forces, they don't get blown up movie style, they get made unserviceable as efficiently as possible. The damage at Pebble Island was mostly grenades and gunfire into the cockpits.

The Americans are denying that American weapons were involved, which points towards the Grom missiles even more. It seems very plausible that the Americans have supplied whatever Ukraine needed to get them into service, especially as it would only involve components and not full missiles. What must be frightening for Russian military planners is that the S-300/S-400 systems failed to intercept whatever it was, despite Crimea being heavily protected with those systems.

I'd expect is much more parts and assistance has been made available toward Grom building and development. The S-300/400 system just seems to be another example of Russian capabilities being very overstated.

There's more and more talk from the Ukrainian side about the Kerch Bridge, which I interpret as a deliberate tactic. Russia will protect the bridge at all costs, tying up manpower and weapons there and keeping them far away from the front line.

Oh that bridge isn't surviving this war...

 

[najaB]

Oh that bridge isn't surviving this war...

And the beautiful thing is that Russia has to defend it, even if Ukraine has no intention to take it out.

 

[Cloud Strife]

You’re right about Kerch though, even mentioning it can tie up a lot of Russian resources “just in case” - Even if Crimea isn’t high on the priority list.

Yes, I think the Ukrainian side knows that even the mere threat of taking out the Kerch Bridge is enough to rattle Russians. They've now got the demonstrated capability of making a pinpoint hit on the bridge, and you can fully imagine that Russia is now deploying the best equipment they have to protect the bridge.

I'd agree. This is an Argentinian Pucara after the SAS raid on Pebble Island. That's the damage that gets done to aircraft hit by special forces, they don't get blown up movie style, they get made unserviceable as efficiently as possible. The damage at Pebble Island was mostly grenades and gunfire into the cockpits.

That's exactly what I'd expect to see. People have this perception that the special forces go in and cause big explosions, but from everything that I've ever seen, it's much more normal to simply disable the target with minimal fuss, such as by putting a hole in a bridge at a strategic place so that it can't be used or repaired easily.

I'd expect is much more parts and assistance has been made available toward Grom building and development. The S-300/400 system just seems to be another example of Russian capabilities being very overstated.

I've read one piece of information that suggests that Grom was complete, but that they were missing the precision strike capability. A few components designed to add that functionality and voila, the Americans have plausible deniability while the Ukrainian propaganda frightens Russia with various possibilities.

Still, I'm very, very surprised at the poor performance of the S-300/400 systems. And now Russia appears to be piling up the S-300 systems at the border, which sounds like an invitation for HIMARS to wreck them.

And the beautiful thing is that Russia has to defend it, even if Ukraine has no intention to take it out.

My personal prediction: *if* Ukraine has the capability, then they're going to leave it in place until they go for Kherson. There's no reason to take it down earlier, especially as Ukraine is now steadily eroding the possibilities of the Russians to keep Kherson supplied.

 

[brad465]

Ukraine appear to be aiming to re-take Kherson "within weeks":

Ukraine war: Drone pilots mark targets for new offensive

Small units play a key role in targeting Russian armour as Ukraine attempts to retake Kherson.

www.bbc.co.uk

For weeks Ukraine's armed forces have been talking of launching a counter-offensive in the south, and now a senior military officer has told the BBC they aim to recapture the city of Kherson within weeks. Instead of a major full-scale attack, they are expected to adopt a different strategy, with a role for small drone units.
His eyes glued to a monitor, a member of Ukraine's special operation forces is operating a drone flying over Russian positions when he spots an armoured vehicle hidden in trenches: "Fire when you're ready," he says in a voice message to an artillery unit.
Russian lines are just 3km (1.9 miles) away and this soldier has to hide his identity: his call-sign is Maverick, from the movie Top Gun.
The task for Maverick and his team is to identify potential targets and pass on their coordinates. Then they watch and direct fire.
Big guns make a big difference in this conflict.
"This is a war of artillery, high-tech weapons and minds. The soldier still plays an important role but success is mostly dependent on rockets, artillery and air strikes," says Maj Gen Dmytro Marchenko, who successfully organised the defence of the southern city of Mykolaiv from Russian attack last spring. It is not like World War Two, when one big army attacked another, he argues.

And that is what Russia's offensive has relied on in Ukraine's eastern and southern territories. Relentless barrages of Russian artillery pummel everything in their way, destroying military positions and residential areas too.
According to Ukrainian authorities, the Russians are sending an extra 30 battalion tactical groups - some 22,000 troops - to the south to respond to Kyiv's much-vaunted counter-offensive.
The arrival of American Himars and M270 multiple rocket launchers has given the Ukrainians the ability to destroy targets they couldn't reach before.
But they say more are needed to counter Russian fire and to hit priority targets such as air defence, ammunition depots and supply routes.
Maj Gen Marchenko believes they will take Kherson back "in the near future" - and in a matter of weeks.
But in order to succeed they need to breach what he calls Russia's static defence strategy: "We have to have three times more power, quantity of weapons and artillery. Unfortunately, we don't have such an advantage. Therefore, we have to act in a non-standard way, drawing them out of their positions to equalise our power and resources."

If they succeed in this, not only would it be good for Ukrainian morale, but this would give hope to the rest of Europe to hold their nerve through this winter with its expected energy crisis.