Russia invades Ukraine

[Giugiaro]

But you're probably far safer in general if you're LGBT in Ukraine than in Russia. They're on a journey of their own. Indeed apparently to some degree the weaponization by Russia of homophobia may be helping to drive more pro-LGBT views in Ukraine. Being homophobic is seen as being Russian therefore anti-Ukrainian.

Lazerpig touched on this subject in his most recent video. The topic starts at 57:56 and, more generally regarding all Ukrainians, ends at 1:02:29.

 

[Pete_uk]

Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent_official) on Threads

⚡Sweden includes Gripen jet spare parts in new $443 million military aid package for Ukraine. Sweden has included combat boats, anti-tank weapons, ammunition, and Gripen jet spare parts in its latest military aid package for Ukraine, valued at 4.6 billion Swedish krona ($443 million), the...

www.threads.net

Hope that's right ✅️

The Kyiv Independent is reporting that Sweeden are sending parts for the JS39 Saab Gripen.

In other thoughts and musings I find it infuriating to know that Romanian jets followed a Iranian drone on its route to kill Ukrainians.

The west is really weak.

 

[najaB]

In other thoughts and musings I find it infuriating to know that Romanian jets followed a Iranian drone on its route to kill Ukrainians.

The west is really weak.

Was the drone over Romanian airspace?

 

[Pete_uk]

Apologies, yes it took a route that took it over their airspace. Another one has crashed in one of the baltic states but can't find which one.

 

[bspahh]

Was the drone over Romanian airspace?

https://dailywrap.uk/why-romanian-f-16s-didnt-shoot-down-russian-drones,7068842200946305a says that they need to identify it by sight and think about the debris:

Most likely, the objects that entered Romanian airspace were drones from the Shahed family or possibly Kh-101 cruise missiles. While shooting down such objects by a military aircraft is straightforward, it is restricted by numerous limitations in peacetime.

Wirtualna Polska journalist Łukasz Michalik explains that even if a plane detects the target on radar, it must visually identify it. On radar, the suspected drone could be mistaken for a helicopter, for instance. Additionally, near the border, it might even be a Ukrainian machine.

This necessitates close flight, and given the presence of Russian objects in NATO airspace for a few minutes, intercepting them in NATO airspace is virtually impossible. Furthermore, during peacetime, military aircraft cannot exceed the speed of sound, which prolongs the time required to reach the incident location.

It is also worth noting that shooting down such an object carries risks. If shot down from a close distance, debris from the target could damage the aircraft and fall to the ground. In the best-case scenario, nothing happens, but in the worst case, it could cause a forest fire or fall on inhabited areas.

For these reasons, what might seem like a weak response from both Romania and Poland to the intrusion of Russian drones is understandable. On the other hand, if a full-scale armed conflict were to arise, any unauthorised flying object in the operational area without an active transponder or lacking NATO friend-or-foe identification would likely be shot down.

 

[najaB]

https://dailywrap.uk/why-romanian-f-16s-didnt-shoot-down-russian-drones,7068842200946305a says that they need to identify it by sight and think about the debris:

And also it sounds like they were only in Romanian airspace for a limited period so they didn't have much time to identify, make a decision and take action before they were back over Ukraine.

 

[Ivor]

Another one has crashed in one of the baltic states but can't find which one.

Latvia

 

[edwin_m]

Hope that's right ✅️

The Kyiv Independent is reporting that Sweeden are sending parts for the JS39 Saab Gripen.

In other thoughts and musings I find it infuriating to know that Romanian jets followed a Iranian drone on its route to kill Ukrainians.

The west is really weak.

Have I missed them sending some Gripens that would use the spare parts, or do the Ukrainians plan on assembling what they get into whole planes?

 

[najaB]

Have I missed them sending some Gripens that would use the spare parts, or do the Ukrainians plan on assembling what they get into whole planes?

Would be the first time that export restrictions have been bypassed by simply exporting all the parts needed to make the weapon...

 

[brad465]

At what point will one of these Baltic countries trigger Article 5 from one of these projectiles crashing into their territory? I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them is not an accident but Russia "testing the waters".

 

[DustyBin]

At what point will one of these Baltic countries trigger Article 5 from one of these projectiles crashing into their territory? I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them is not an accident but Russia "testing the waters".

The issue is that triggering Article 5 doesn’t mean NATO is obliged to do anything, beyond having a chat about the situation. And that’s all that’s likely to happen, which sends the wrong message.

 

[ainsworth74]

The issue is that triggering Article 5 doesn’t mean NATO is obliged to do anything, beyond having a chat about the situation. And that’s all that’s likely to happen, which sends the wrong message.

Yes it's got Article 4 written all over it, but not Article 5. We don't want to push the Article 5 button unless something substantive is going to result.

Though, in line with the excellent Yes Prime Minister bit, one does of course question when the Article 5 button (rather than the nuclear button as in the sketch) would get pressed...

(Famous sketch where Jim Hacker is pressed on when he would push the, in this case, nuclear button and how the Russian's would never push him into the position where he felt he had no choice but to push the button)

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Strange thing this nuclear war. The only way to win is not to play!

Salami slicing is more Putin's line of thinking imho.

 

[brad465]

Yes it's got Article 4 written all over it, but not Article 5. We don't want to push the Article 5 button unless something substantive is going to result.

Though, in line with the excellent Yes Prime Minister bit, one does of course question when the Article 5 button (rather than the nuclear button as in the sketch) would get pressed...

(Famous sketch where Jim Hacker is pressed on when he would push the, in this case, nuclear button and how the Russian's would never push him into the position where he felt he had no choice but to push the button)

Pretty sure Article 4 was triggered by all the NATO members bordering Ukraine once Russia invaded proper in 2022.

 

[ainsworth74]

Pretty sure Article 4 was triggered by all the NATO members bordering Ukraine once Russia invaded proper in 2022.

Indeed, according to NATO it's been done seven times since 1949, mostly by Türkiye:

Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times:

1. On 10 February 2003, Türkiye formally invoked Article 4, asking for consultations in the NAC on defensive assistance from NATO in the event of a threat to its population or territory resulting from armed conflict in neighbouring Iraq. NATO agreed a package of defensive measures and conducted Operation Display Deterrence from the end of February to early May 2003.
2. On 22 June 2012, Türkiye requested a NAC meeting under Article 4 after one of its fighter jets was shot down by Syrian air defence forces.
3. On 3 October 2012, Türkiye requested Article 4 NAC consultations when five Turkish civilians were killed by Syrian shells. Following these incidents, on 21 November 2012, Türkiye requested the deployment of Patriot missiles. NATO agreed to this defensive measure to help Türkiye defend its population and territory, and to help de-escalate the crisis along the border.
4. On 3 March 2014, Poland invoked Article 4 following increasing tensions in neighbouring Ukraine, as a result of Russia’s aggressive actions.
5. On 26 July 2015, Türkiye requested that the NAC convene in view of the seriousness of the situation following terrorist attacks, and to inform Allies of the measures it was taking.
6. On 28 February 2020, Türkiye requested consultations following the death of Turkish soldiers in air strikes by the Syrian regime and its backer Russia in Idlib province.
7. On 24 February 2022, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm

But if Russian drones are now accidently/on-purpose crashing into NATO members like Latvia and Romania feels like it might be time utilise it again.

 

[Pete_uk]

x.com

x.com

The SMO in Ukraine is going so well Ukrainian drones hit a warehouse supposably holding stocks of Iranian missiles in Moscow.
One missed and hit a high-rise building.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Crimea itself though was always Russian until the 1950s the USSR donated it to the Ukrainean autonomous region which they had no idea would become an independant state later. The rest of Ukraine is a whole other story and because of that the west let it ride in 2014, besides a few more sanctions.

Crimea wasn't always Russian. For a substantial part of history, it was part of the Ottoman Empire, and in the Soviet Union, it was mostly either part of the Ukrainian SSR or an autonomous republic within the Russian SFSR, Crimea itself at the time of annexation by the Russian Empire was almost completely Crimean Tatar.

 

[wilbers]

Ukraine's Kursk operation feels even more like an insurance policy against Trump after last nights debate - if Trump had wanted to impose a freeze lines where they are sort of deal (although could call it a type of surrender) Ukraine holding Russian territory makes it a lot trickier. Hopefully Trump won't win anyway so that outcome won't be on the table.

 

[RailWonderer]

Ukraine's Kursk operation feels even more like an insurance policy against Trump after last nights debate - if Trump had wanted to impose a freeze lines where they are sort of deal (although could call it a type of surrender) Ukraine holding Russian territory makes it a lot trickier. Hopefully Trump won't win anyway so that outcome won't be on the table.

What will the occupation of Kursk do to help them if Trump wins? Ukraine will have to withdraw eventually but Russia won't ever and doesn't need to. Realistically Ukraine has to cede those oblasts to Russia because there is no scenario where Ukraine gets them back. The problem is, Russia will probably want the entire Ukraine and rearm during a ceasefire - remember it initially tried to take Kiev before being pushed back.

Realistically if Trump wins he'll try and get a peace deal done but nobody will agree and the war will continue. I still think Trump would be lectured by the generals and convinced or pressured to continue aid anyway.

 

[najaB]

Realistically Ukraine has to cede those oblasts to Russia because there is no scenario where Ukraine gets them back.

Assuming Putin doesn't fall out of a window.

 

[RailWonderer]

Assuming Putin doesn't fall out of a window.

Won't make a difference. Russia is ran by siloviks, ex KGB, FSB, SVR, GRU etc who are all anti-Western.

Silovik - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Putin is only one of them, and many years ago they kicked all the Russian democrats that were fragmented anyway (or some were killed, like Starovoytova who wanted lustration like Poland and the Baltics did and she died for it. Lustration bans all Soviet era secret service officials from service in govt for moral reasons).
So I think Russia either becomes more hawkish after Putin or less hawkish, but still anti-Western.

 

[najaB]

So I think Russia either becomes more hawkish after Putin or less hawkish, but still anti-Western.

Oh, no doubt about that. But if the end of the war coincides with Putin's defenestration then they can hand back the occupied territory and blame it all on him.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The problem is, Russia will probably want the entire Ukraine and rearm during a ceasefire - remember it initially tried to take Kiev before being pushed back.

Ukraine will rapidly enter NATO once the war ends, even if it's a situation like in Cyprus where the ceasefire is actually a bunch of local agreements that isn't formally codified anywhere. For that reason, Russia can't stop now, even if Ukraine starts tearing apart their civilian infrastructure in an attempt to make them stop.

 

[DustyBin]

It’s not looking positive in regard to Ukraine being granted permission to use Western missiles to strike targets within Russia. Putin may have won this particular psychological battle unfortunately.

Edited to add the following afterthought: Maybe the public announcement will come in the form of something going boom inside Russia?

 

[dgl]

Maybe it'll be a case of Ukraine just using them on targets in Russia and the west just accepting it. We can then say that we didn't approve it when secretly we don't mind.

 

[adc82140]

It’s not looking positive in regard to Ukraine being granted permission to use Western missiles to strike targets within Russia. Putin may have won this particular psychological battle unfortunately.

Edited to add the following afterthought: Maybe the public announcement will come in the form of something going boom inside Russia?

Putin has inadvertently admitted that Crimea and the Donbass are not actually Russia, because the long range weapons have been used there for some time, and he now states that "hitting Russia" would be an escalation.

 

[DustyBin]

Maybe it'll be a case of Ukraine just using them on targets in Russia and the west just accepting it. We can then say that we didn't approve it when secretly we don't mind.

The thing that really grates is that Putin thinks he can set the rules, having illegally invaded another country. There are some realities for the West to contend with, but this particular “red line” is highly unlikely to result in any kind of escalation in my opinion (beyond Putin stepping up his campaign against Ukrainian children’s hospitals etc.).

Putin has inadvertently admitted that Crimea and the Donbass are not actually Russia, because the long range weapons have been used there for some time, and he now states that "hitting Russia" would be an escalation.

Yes, he makes it up as he goes along though…

 

[Russel]

I'm guessing the September peace talks suggested earlier in this thread haven't happened...

 

[wilbers]

I'm guessing the September peace talks suggested earlier in this thread haven't happened...

September in which year?

 

[Russel]

September in which year?

True, true...