Russia invades Ukraine

[Pete_uk]

x.com

x.com

Some good news, a 'batch' of F16s moving to Ukraine.

 

[DustyBin]

It’s not on the main news channels yet, but apparently the Ukrainians have launched a second incursion into Kursk, which if successful would lead to the Russian forces sent to deal with the original incursion being encircled. The suggestion is that this was carefully planned.

We’ll see what (if anything) develops…

 

[wilbers]

We’ll see what (if anything) develops…

...or even envelops.

 

[DustyBin]

...or even envelops.

Hopefully!

 

[najaB]

There were some loud noises overnight in Toropets:

No reports on the condition of the careless smoker.

 

[brad465]

There were some loud noises overnight in Toropets:

No reports on the condition of the careless smoker.

Were it not for the pager story, this explosion would be a much more prominent story. Either way it certainly makes a big dent into Russian capabilities going forward.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I had to google it. Quite significant!

Toropets - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

=== Russo-Ukrainian War ===
On the night between 17 and 18 September 2024, Ukraine launched a drone attack on Toropets, reportedly causing explosions and fires in an ammunition arsenal in the town and shattering of apartment windows. Igor Rudenya, announced a partial evacuation of the town, claiming that the fire in Toropets was cause by Ukrainian drone wreckages, and that there was no serious injuries nor casualties. The blast in Toropets resulted in a small earthquake and NASA satellites detected the fire from space. According Reuters the blast is equivalent to 200-240 tons of high explosives detonating. The SBU claimed that “Iskander, Tochka and KAB missiles” were stored at the facility.

 

[najaB]

I had to google it. Quite significant!

Toropets - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There were, apparently, thousands of tonnes of ammunition stored at the site, which explains the numerous subsequent explosions.

 

[wilbers]

There were some loud noises overnight in Toropets:

No reports on the condition of the careless smoker.

at 0.44s into that it says the destroyed missile was "indestructable". Is that just because no one has managed to successfully target one before, or because it was in a hardened silo and Ukraine has found a weakness (someone left the silo door open??)?

 

[najaB]

at 0.44s into that it says the destroyed missile was "indestructable". Is that just because no one has managed to successfully target one before, or because it was in a hardened silo and Ukraine has found a weakness (someone left the silo door open??)?

I suspect that it was supposed to be hardened, but the amount of concrete that was paid for was significantly more than the amount that was delivered. Wouldn't be the first time in Russia, and likely not the last.

 

[Pete_uk]

Those explosions caused a earth tremor 2.2 on the richter scale and the smoke was seen on weather satellites.

This is the kind of things various Americans are afraid of!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I suspect that it was supposed to be hardened, but the amount of concrete that was paid for was significantly more than the amount that was delivered. Wouldn't be the first time in Russia, and likely not the last.

Now that is starting to make sense to me.

 

[najaB]

More loud noises overnight, it seems. A large ammunition depot at Tikhoretsk is no more. This one reportedly contained munitions provided to Russia by the DPRK.

Depot explosions in the first three minutes or so of the video.

 

[brad465]

More loud noises overnight, it seems. A large ammunition depot at Tikhoretsk is no more. This one reportedly contained munitions provided to Russia by the DPRK.

Depot explosions in the first three minutes or so of the video.

I don't know how long it takes to replenish/rebuild an ammo depot, but it looks like Ukraine are going hard at making sure Russian winter strike capability is diminished and as this is September this must be within the time range that Russian supplies for the winter are in stores.

 

[najaB]

I don't know how long it takes to replenish/rebuild an ammo depot, but it looks like Ukraine are going hard at making sure Russian winter strike capability is diminished and as this is September this must be within the time range that Russian supplies for the winter are in stores.

That's a sound strategy. I just hope that the Ukrainians are taking precautions against the Russians attempting the same.

 

[Ivor]

More loud noises overnight, it seems. A large ammunition depot at Tikhoretsk is no more. This one reportedly contained munitions provided to Russia by the DPRK.

Depot explosions in the first three minutes or so of the video.

The Russian population will begin to get the message that this is starting to come to their doorsteps.

Strange very little covered in the mainstream on this.

 

[Strathclyder]

Strange very little covered in the mainstream on this.

The timing, thanks to the recent pager explosions, will have something to do with the lack of mainstream media coverage on this. A significant development regardless, obviously aimed at hampering the Russian winter strike capability. Just hope Ukraine has taken all possible precautions/actions against Russia retaliating similarly.

 

[Ivor]

News breaking on BBC News (tv not their web site) that a big strike on apartments in Kharkiv, as if they have haven’t suffered enough since the start of the invasion.

Putin will be fuming re his ammunition storage facilities have been destroyed the past few days & will hit the residents of Ukraine that the Kremlin always trot out the line that they only hit military & infrastructure locations.

 

[najaB]

News breaking on BBC News (tv not their web site) that a big strike on apartments in Kharkiv, as if they have haven’t suffered enough since the start of the invasion.

I wish I could say that I'm surprised.

 

[Pete_uk]

More glide bombs hit Kharkiv again today

 

[wilbers]

Mystery of Russia's secret weapon downed in Ukraine

Ukrainians watched intrigued as a Russian stealth combat drone was apparently shot down by a Russian jet.

www.bbc.co.uk

When two white vapour trails cross the sky near the front line in eastern Ukraine, it tends to mean one thing. Russian jets are about to attack.

But what happened near the city of Kostyantynivka was unprecedented. The lower trail split in two, external and a new object quickly accelerated towards the other vapour trail until they crossed and a bright orange flash lit up the sky.

Russian secret weapon not so secret now as they lost control of it (believed to be because of electronic warfare) and shot it down themselves. If it really is only 1 of 4 prototypes then that could set that weapons program back a bit.

 

[Trackman]

This is what the BBC are reporting today based on reports from a South Korea spy agency.

Could be a big holiday for them if not at the front line or run for freedom. They will be needing a tight leash me thinks.

URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3vkqwe9wwdo

North Korea has started sending troops to fight with Russia in Ukraine, South Korea's spy agency has said as Seoul warned of a "grave security threat".
The allegation comes a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believed 10,000 North Korean soldiers could join the war, based on intelligence information.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called for a security meeting on Friday and said the international community must respond with "all available means".
According to the spy agency, 1,500 troops have already arrived in Russia - with anonymous sources telling South Korean media the final figure could be closer to 12,000.
This comes as evidence mounts that North Korea is supplying Russia with ammunition, as recently demonstrated by the recovery of a missile in Ukraine’s Poltava region.
Moscow and Pyongyang have also been deepening their cooperation in recent months. Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin on his birthday, calling him his "closest comrade".
Friday's security meeting was attended by key officials from South Korea's National Security Office, the Ministry of National Defence, and the National Intelligence Service, Yoon's office said.
"[The participants] decided not to ignore the situation and to jointly respond to it with the international community using all available means," it said.
The allegation from the National Intelligence Service comes days after Ukrainian military intelligence sources said that Russia's army is forming a unit of North Koreans.
The BBC has reached out to the NIS for comment.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g5vwxgyx3o
Earlier this week, Putin introduced a bill to ratify a military pact he made with Kim, which pledges that Russia and North Korea will help each other in the event of "aggression" against either country.
South Korea's spy agency, the NIS, said North Korean troops are training in Russian bases in Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Vlagoveshensk.
This appears to confirm information from a military source in Russia’s Far East, who told BBC Russian this week that “a number of North Koreans have arrived” and were stationed in one of the military bases near Ussuriysk.
Seoul's spy agency also released aerial photographs of Ussuriysk and Khabarovsk, where they say hundreds of North Korean troops have gathered, and another photo of North Korea's Chongjin port, where a Russian ship was reportedly shown carrying North Korean soldiers.
The NIS said it found that since August, North Korea has sent 13,000 shipping containers carrying shells, missiles, and anti-armour rockets to Russia.
As many as eight million 122-mm and 152-mm shells have been supplied to Russia, it said.
However, some military experts believe the Russian military units will have difficulties incorporating North Korean troops into their frontlines.
Apart from the language barrier, the North Korean army has no recent experience of combat operations, they said.
“They could guard some sections of the Russian-Ukrainian border, which would free Russian units for fighting elsewhere,” said Valeriy Ryabykh, editor of the Ukrainian publication Defence Express.
“I would rule out the possibility that these units will immediately appear on the front line.”

 

[ainsworth74]

This is what the BBC are reporting today based on reports from a South Korea spy agency.

Could be a big holiday for them if not at the front line or run for freedom. They will be needing a tight leash me thinks.

URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3vkqwe9wwdo

But remember, if NATO troops were in Ukraine even as advisers rather than combat troops, this would be a massive escalation and necessitate the gravest of responses...

Only poor weak threatened Russia is allowed to call upon it's allies to help it stand against the vile Ukrainian neo-nazi regime that threatens peace and security along with the degenerate west...

 

[GusB]

Could be a big holiday for them if not at the front line or run for freedom. They will be needing a tight leash me thinks.

It's certainly an opportunity for North Korean soldiers to make a run for it but it will be at the back of their minds that their families back home will be in trouble if they do.

 

[Pete_uk]

I wonder If South Korea would be willing to counteract this with supplies of some sort?

(Until America says NO!)

 

[1D54]

It's certainly an opportunity for North Korean soldiers to make a run for it but it will be at the back of their minds that their families back home will be in trouble if they do.

And those with no families back home will not be sent. It's the same as the old cold war days when only trusted people (with something to lose) were allowed near western borders or high ranking officials to actually cross them.

 

[najaB]

We've all heard about Wagner and the Russian armed forces recruiting convicts to fight in Ukraine, but there's a story on the BBC website which says that people who have been charged with a crime are being given the offer to fight in return for their case being suspended. It starts with the case of a 62 year old man who's been made exactly that offer:

At about 06:45 on 28 March, police arrived at Andrey Perlov’s house near Novosibirsk in Siberia.

They accused him of stealing about three million roubles ($32,000; £24,000) from a Novosibirsk football club where he was the managing director - he and his family deny this.

Perlov, who is 62, is an Olympic gold medallist, having won the 50km race walk in 1992.

He has been detained for more than six months and his family says he is being pressured to agree to fight in Ukraine. He’s been told that, in return, the embezzlement case against him would be frozen and potentially dropped when the war ends.

Source: Russians accused of crimes offered choice - go to war instead of court (BBC News)

I think this shows just how desperate they are for more cannon fodder. One wonders how many people are going to be arrested on trumped-up charges just to fill the quota...

 

[ainsworth74]

I wonder If South Korea would be willing to counteract this with supplies of some sort?

Be quite the fall from grace for Russia, being reduced to effectively being a combatant in a Korean proxy war

I think this shows just how desperate they are for more cannon fodder.

Yes, whilst it's probably at least some wishful thinking on my part, I do wonder if they're starting to have serious manpower issues whilst the regime is desperate to avoid a further round of mobilisation as it will likely be both be very unpopular as a concept but also by virtue having already called upon a big chunk of the more rural and poor elements of Russian society (and particularly having drained the pool of non-ethnically Russians who are able/willing to fight) meaning it's going to be more middle class Russians that face enlistment this time.

You can see it in reports, unconfirmed, that the Russian army is using what would normally be specialist roles in front line infantry assaults wasting that precious training such as drone operators, armoured vehicle crews, radar operators, or in one case apparently forming battalion using the crew of the interminably drydocked Kuznetzov aircraft carrier. Though some of this might be confused reportage to be fair as apparently at least some of the reports of drone operators being sent to the front is actually a punishment by their officers. But also in the way that bonuses for enlisting have been ballooning recently. In July the national bonus for enlisting was doubled, in some regions it's being topped up by local government. In Sverdlovsk they've increased it three times in two months!

Authorities in Russia’s Sverdlovsk region have raised one-time payments for new military recruits for the third time in two months, as efforts to bolster recruitment intensify across the country.

New recruits from the Ural Mountains region, which has a population of 4.2 million, will now receive 1.5 million rubles ($16,100) as a sign-up bonus, the regional government announced Monday. Combined with President Vladimir Putin’s national sign-on bonus and municipal payments, new recruits could earn up to 2 million rubles ($21,500) up front.

This marks the third payment increase in the Sverdlovsk region since August, according to the news outlet 7x7, which reported that the region has lagged behind others in recruitment numbers.

At least 45 Russian regions have raised one-time payments for signing military contracts in 2024, offering additional perks like free childcare and travel for soldiers’ families. Experts say the rising payments reflect Russia’s struggle to maintain manpower as public support for the war, now in its third year, wanes.

Russia’s Sverdlovsk Region Increases Military Sign-Up Bonus Amid Recruitment Push - The Moscow Times

Authorities in Russia’s Sverdlovsk region have raised one-time payments for new military recruits for the third time in two months, as efforts to bolster recruitment intensify across the country.

www.themoscowtimes.com

I reckon that they're struggling again just as they did late in 2022. Which isn't to say that Ukraine isn't struggling either with the same problem of course.

 

[gg1]

You can see it in reports, unconfirmed, that the Russian army is using what would normally be specialist roles in front line infantry assaults wasting that precious training such as drone operators, armoured vehicle crews, radar operators, or in one case apparently forming battalion using the crew of the interminably drydocked Kuznetzov aircraft carrier. Though some of this might be confused reportage to be fair as apparently at least some of the reports of drone operators being sent to the front is actually a punishment by their officers. But also in the way that bonuses for enlisting have been ballooning recently. In July the national bonus for enlisting was doubled, in some regions it's being topped up by local government. In Sverdlovsk they've increased it three times in two months!

Shades of WW2 there where towards the end of the war Germany resorted to using trained airmen, sailors and mechanics as infantrymen.

 

[ainsworth74]

Shades of WW2 there where towards the end of the war Germany resorted to using trained airmen, sailors and mechanics as infantrymen.

Indeed though, of course, Russia still has a pool of manpower to call upon in a wider mobilisation. The regime just dare not call upon it for fear of destabilising their position...