Russia invades Ukraine

[TheEdge]

I think it's more likely that Ukraine will simply become a fortress which Russia can't invade again, with the country adopting a "westward looking" but neutral position.

So pre-invasion Finland then.

 

[DustyBin]

I think this is most likely. In the EU but not a NATO member.

I could see them joining the EU, yes.

So pre-invasion Finland then.

Pretty much (I actually nearly mentioned Finland in my original post!).

 

[najaB]

I could see them joining the EU, yes.

Assuming that the country survives the current crisis intact then it's a foregone conclusion. The EU has accepted their application for membership and said that it will be fast-tracked.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv on Friday presented Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with paperwork for his country to join the European Union.

Handing over a document at a joint press conference, she said: "This is where your path towards the European Union begins."

"We stand ready to support you in filling out this questionnaire," von der Leyen said, adding: "It will not be, as usual, a matter of years, but rather a matter of weeks" to complete this step.

(My bold) - https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-eu-chief-offers-kyiv-fast-track-to-membership/a-61409635

 

[Cloud Strife]

Assuming that the country survives the current crisis intact then it's a foregone conclusion. The EU has accepted their application for membership and said that it will be fast-tracked.

At this moment, it seems that Russia is simply trying to secure the whole of the Donbas along with the Kherson-Mariupol line to cut off Ukraine's access to the Sea of Azov. It will allow Putin to save face, and most Russians will accept tens of thousands of dead Russian forces in exchange for the propaganda of success.

 

[Yew]

22 is pretty much normal in Poland and other countries in this part of the world. It's ridiculous. There was a massive outroar in one municipality when school temperatures were reduced to the legal minimum of 18C.

It’s remarkable how some people seem to immediately jump to this idea that the solution to all problems is to make like more uncomfortable or inconvenient.

 

[najaB]

It’s remarkable how some people seem to immediately jump to this idea that the solution to all problems is to make like more uncomfortable or inconvenient.

The flip side of that is that as a society perhaps we have accepted more than we should have because it is comfortable or convenient to do so.

 

[takno]

It’s remarkable how some people seem to immediately jump to this idea that the solution to all problems is to make like more uncomfortable or inconvenient.

I tend to find 22 both uncomfortable and inconvenient tbh

 

[Annetts key]

Can we not talk about comfortable levels of heating please. There are plenty of Ukrainians who don’t currently have ANY heating.

And…

Can we stick to discussing the war in Ukraine in this thread please.

If anyone wants to discuss anything else such as thermostat settings then they are welcome to start a new thread elsewhere.

thanks

 

[najaB]

Interesting random thing I noticed. If you go to Google Maps and zoom out and click on a country name it will highlight the borders in red... unless the country is Ukraine.

E.g. Belarus


Vs Ukraine

 

[Bletchleyite]

It doesn't appear to do it for Russia or China either. I think it's some sort of bug to do with the size of the country rather than a conspiracy.

 

[Roast Veg]

It doesn't appear to do it for Russia or China either. I think it's some sort of bug to do with the size of the country rather than a conspiracy.

Nothing to do with size, everything to do with contested borders. Try Morocco, Egypt, Sudan, Israel, Somalia, etc...

 

[najaB]

Nothing to do with size, everything to do with contested borders.

Makes sense, I guess they don't want to get accused of picking sides.

 

[Giugiaro]

Both Germany and us (and everyone) needs to be working towards being able to provide its own energy, and I am pretty sure we could have done this years ago.

Spain and Portugal asked the EU to detach their electric energy prices from the Gas Price index. Most energy generated in these countries already comes from renewable sources. Fixing the energy price to Gas doesn't make much sense.

The EU is very reluctant to allow this to happen. It would make energy much cheaper in the Iberian Peninsula, prompting other countries to buy from Portugal and Spain, de-stabilising the European energy market.

But this would be a good thing. Other countries buying from you cheap, surplus, renewable originated energy would incentivise the adoption of clean energy sources in the EU.

But I understand that relying on PIGS for energy isn't on Central Europe's wishlist...

 

[JamesT]

Spain and Portugal asked the EU to detach their electric energy prices from the Gas Price index. Most energy generated in these countries already comes from renewable sources. Fixing the energy price to Gas doesn't make much sense.

The EU is very reluctant to allow this to happen. It would make energy much cheaper in the Iberian Peninsula, prompting other countries to buy from Portugal and Spain, de-stabilising the European energy market.

But this would be a good thing. Other countries buying from you cheap, surplus, renewable originated energy would incentivise the adoption of clean energy sources in the EU.

But I understand that relying on PIGS for energy isn't on Central Europe's wishlist...

As I understand it the EU electricity market is set up in the same way as Britain's domestic market, the price at any point of time is set by the most expensive supplier that was needed to meet the capacity required. As this is usually provided by gas, the electricity price ends up following the gas price.

This generally incentivises renewable producers as their cost of production is much lower, the difference is profit or recouping the cost of building the renewable capacity.

There are other ways of structuring the market, but it has to be carefully done to make sure it doesn't end up with perverse incentives.

 

[JonasB]

Thing is, it is the kind of thing that even if preparations are being made, not much will be evident for quite some time. LNG import terminals will take quite some time to construct - at least one major terminal (Wilhelmshaven) has received significant additional investment to try and bring it into service in 2025 rather than 2027 as originally planned. There's another terminal on the Baltic that will (hopefully) be ready by 2026.

If you're only thinking about replacing russian gas with other gas it gets a lot harder. Replacing gas with other sources of energy is better.

And regerding Germany not even trying, if they were serious a good start would be to not close more nuclear power plants.

 

[najaB]

If you're only thinking about replacing russian gas with other gas it gets a lot harder. Replacing gas with other sources of energy is better.

For electricity, yes. For heat, not so much. And for industrial processes that use gas as a feed, not at all.

 

[yorksrob]

It seems that Communist China is still determined to tacitly support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So much for being against interference in other countries business.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61157670

Chinese President Xi Jinping has restated Beijing's opposition to sanctions such as those imposed by Western countries on Russia.

Addressing a regional economic forum, Xi said China was against long arm jurisdiction, and that tactics of extreme pressure and cutting off supplies would not work.

He condemned what he called "cold war mentalities", unilateralism and hegemonism - terms China often uses to criticise policies of the United States.

In contrast, Beijing has declined to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has pledged to continue normal trade relations with what it describes as its comprehensive strategic partner.

 

[REVUpminster]

Wimbledon coming in for criticism for banning Russian and Belarus players; well last night at a production of Carmen which normally has a cast of Moldavians, Ukrainians, and Russian singers. No Russian singers were performing and at the curtain call the Ukraine flag was displayed together with the subtitle display to a standing ovation from the audience.

 

[AM9]

View attachment 113384
Wimbledon coming in for criticism for banning Russian and Belarus players; well last night at a production of Carmen which normally has a cast of Moldavians, Ukrainians, and Russian singers. No Russian singers were performing and at the curtain call the Ukraine flag was displayed together with the subtitle display to a standing ovation from the audience.

Good.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Ukraine is now openly talking about an attack on the Kerch Bridge. They're claiming that they don't currently have the weapons to do so, but it's pretty obvious that you don't need much more than a couple of trucks filled with explosives and an escape vessel underneath.

I have a strong suspicion that when Russia finally takes Mariupol, Ukraine will hit back straight at the heart of Russia. Taking out the Kerch Bridge would be a massive blow to Russia, as they invested such much propaganda in it.

 

[ainsworth74]

It's also just clever strategy to hold it at risk. Russia has to dedicate resources to protecting it, you'd think they would be already but they'll certainly have to now that Ukraine have said they'd attack it if they could. That's more troops, vehicles and ships diverted. I imagine that's the same reason why they've been making rumblings about hitting more bases within Russia itself.

 

[Roast Veg]

It's also just clever strategy to hold it at risk. Russia has to dedicate resources to protecting it, you'd think they would be already but they'll certainly have to now that Ukraine have said they'd attack it if they could.

Ukraine has absolutely won the information war, being open about their every possible intention and spreading Russia as thinly as possible will maintain the disarray and hopefully allow them to win the Donbas war.

 

[John Luxton]

Ukraine has absolutely won the information war, being open about their every possible intention and spreading Russia as thinly as possible will maintain the disarray and hopefully allow them to win the Donbas war.

Perhaps only because of active suppression of the likes of RT on the air waves.

One thing that worries me is that if you have to silence the other side are you being no better than the other side?

Should people not be free to decide which side to believe?

Back in WWII "Lord Haw Haw" and others freely broadcast to Britain and from what I have read not all of the information was accurate - claiming at least once to have sunk an RN "stone frigate" land base for example.

After the war Joyce was dealt with.

I am sure Britain could have blocked the transmissions - but did not - just let the Nazis dig their own hole.

Once you start silencing the other side in a conflict and trying to control the narrative seems just as wrong as the war itself.

What right have UK / EU etc to dictate what people listen to?

That in itself becomes a totalitarian act. People have eyes and brains - let them decide who is telling the truth.

 

[dakta]

Disinformation is much wider than Ukraine and can cause a lot of damage. People are free to make their own mind up but the sources should be reliable.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Another day, another death of a wealthy Russian family.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-novatek-manager-protosenya-dead/31814581.html

There's no coincidence here. Putin openly threatened the oligarchs, and now they're being killed in their own homes.

 

[John Luxton]

Another day, another death of a wealthy Russian family.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-novatek-manager-protosenya-dead/31814581.html

There's no coincidence here. Putin openly threatened the oligarchs, and now they're being killed in their own homes.

Could still be a murder suicide. Had he been affected by sanctions and was unable to function?

Wait for the police verdict before jumping conclusions.

 

[Trackman]

Perhaps only because of active suppression of the likes of RT on the air waves.

One thing that worries me is that if you have to silence the other side are you being no better than the other side?

Should people not be free to decide which side to believe?

Back in WWII "Lord Haw Haw" and others freely broadcast to Britain and from what I have read not all of the information was accurate - claiming at least once to have sunk an RN "stone frigate" land base for example.

After the war Joyce was dealt with.

I am sure Britain could have blocked the transmissions - but did not - just let the Nazis dig their own hole.

Once you start silencing the other side in a conflict and trying to control the narrative seems just as wrong as the war itself.

What right have UK / EU etc to dictate what people listen to?

That in itself becomes a totalitarian act. People have eyes and brains - let them decide who is telling the truth.

I used to watch RT purely for the entertainment value when something big happened. It was like watching the opposite of Sky news.
I watched a bit before the UK version was taken off-air. Reports said Ukraine would still join NATO even if they said they wouldn't and were developing nuclear and chemical weapons (really?).

Yes, you should be free to decide which side to believe, but I've made up my mind but like to listen to other sides.
As the old adage goes; If you don't like it, don't watch/listen to it.

 

[Roast Veg]

Perhaps only because of active suppression of the likes of RT on the air waves.

This has happened owing to disinformation, and has not been shut down by Ukraine. Rather, individual standards bodies for broadcasting quality in multiple countries have all determined that it is no longer safe to allow RT to continue their broadcast. Ukraine has no such equivalent.

One thing that worries me is that if you have to silence the other side are you being no better than the other side?

Should people not be free to decide which side to believe?

Back in WWII "Lord Haw Haw" and others freely broadcast to Britain and from what I have read not all of the information was accurate - claiming at least once to have sunk an RN "stone frigate" land base for example.

Unlike the Russian narrative, the story of "the other side" consists of journalism from multiple international high quality news outlets, including Thompson Reuters and the Associated Press. You will have noticed, I am sure, that where Ukraine/Russian government and military are quoted on the facts and figures of war the verification status of such claims is always appended.

What right have UK / EU etc to dictate what people listen to?

That in itself becomes a totalitarian act. People have eyes and brains - let them decide who is telling the truth.

Wherein such broadcasting of falsehoods is clearly an endangerment to human life, such a risk cannot be countenanced against the journalistic freedom to distribute baseless fantasy.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Could still be a murder suicide. Had he been affected by sanctions and was unable to function?

Wait for the police verdict before jumping conclusions.

It's just a little bit too much of a coincidence. Murder-suicide in families is very very rare, yet now it's happening to several Russian families?

 

[Falcon1200]

Should people not be free to decide which side to believe?

Not when one side is nothing but state-controlled lies and propaganda, no.