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Russia invades Ukraine

najaB

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Russia is also winning the actual war in the Donbass.
They're winning battles, but I'm not yet convinced that they're winning the war. They've paid a high cost in men and materiel for the advances that they've made.

As to sanctions resulting in rising food a fuel prices - the war itself is responsible for a large portion of the food price rises (it's Ukraine's wheat that's not being exported) and fuel price rises have largely been driven by the bounce back of economic activity as compared to the last couple of years. Here's the five-year trend for Brent crude:
1654251791651.png

Source: https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/trading-commodities/brent-crude-oil.

Prices today are only slightly above where they would have been had the trend between 2017 and 2020 continued.
 
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coppercapped

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What’s your connection to Russia out of interest?
For an informed analysis of the situation in the east of Ukraine I recommend a series of Youtube videos made by Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces. For example this one:

I would also add to najaB's comment that even if the Russians are winning battles, that does not mean they are winning the war. The West's economic power outweighs that of the Russian Federation quite considerably.
 

takno

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An interesting article by Larry Elliott in the Guardian at https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ic-war-ukraine-food-fuel-price-vladimir-putin

Sanctions rarely work, because they are slow to be effective and incentives to evade them are massive. The EU is cutting off its nose to spite its face, but post-Brexit, there is no legal reason for the UK to have to follow suit.

Russia is also winning militarily in the Donbass and much of Novorossiya.
It's difficult to take absurd lexiteers like Larry Elliot seriously on any topic. It's almost impossible when he knocks out these weird pub rants, hammering together his ignorance and prejudices on a range of topics into a series of barely-connected paragraphs and then sticks a conclusion on the top.

Frustrating as it must be for you, trying to be anti-sanctions and anti-EU, the UK has very clearly set itself up to take a harder line on sanctions than the EU generally. I don't disagree that our short-sighted government is still months away from realising that we are setting ourselves up for a difficult situation. The Norwegian gas the EU is switching to is the very gas we're expecting to get this winter, and we don't even have the luxury of a pipeline to Russia if we did decide to cave.

Everybody agrees the war in Ukraine is bad, and the global consequences are horrific, but even for people who choose not to care about Ukrainians, there isn't a scenario where we can safely let Russia win it.
 

DustyBin

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For an informed analysis of the situation in the east of Ukraine I recommend a series of Youtube videos made by Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces. For example this one:

I would also add to najaB's comment that even if the Russians are winning battles, that does not mean they are winning the war. The West's economic power outweighs that of the Russian Federation quite considerably.

Thanks - I watch/read a variety of sources (I have actually watched some of those you’ve suggested before).

I maintain what I said the other day i.e. Russia is making small gains but at great (and unsustainable) cost. The tide hasn’t turned in Russia’s favour as @daodao would like to believe (basically what @najaB and yourself have said).
 

daodao

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For an informed analysis of the situation in the east of Ukraine I recommend a series of Youtube videos made by Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces. For example this one:

I would also add to najaB's comment that even if the Russians are winning battles, that does not mean they are winning the war. The West's economic power outweighs that of the Russian Federation quite considerably.
Thanks you for pointing me in the direction of this illuminating video. It is clear that the Ukrainian forces have put up valiant resistance, but are now at breaking point and their front in the Donbass is on the brink of collapse, partly because they lack weaponry to combat the superior Russian forces. However, the real winner in this European "civil" war is China.
 
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Giugiaro

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Frustrating as it must be for you, trying to be anti-sanctions and anti-EU, the UK has very clearly set itself up to take a harder line on sanctions than the EU generally. I don't disagree that our short-sighted government is still months away from realising that we are setting ourselves up for a difficult situation. The Norwegian gas the EU is switching to is the very gas we're expecting to get this winter, and we don't even have the luxury of a pipeline to Russia if we did decide to cave.

Meanwhile, in Portugal, we're injecting Hydrogen from renewable sources into the gas network.
The first tests have been successful, and the idea is to ramp up injection so that 20% of the gas provided is hydrogen.

Here's a link for the current small scale test.

20% is still half of the 43% average market share the Russian gas has in the EU, but ANYTHING that can bring that share to 0% is helpful.
 

najaB

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However, the real winner in this European civil war is China.
civil war, a violent conflict between a state and one or more organized non-state actors in the state’s territory. Civil wars are thus distinguished from interstate conflicts (in which states fight other states), violent conflicts or riots not involving states (sometimes labeled intercommunal conflicts), and state repression against individuals who cannot be considered an organized or cohesive group, including genocides, and similar violence by non-state actors, such as terrorism or violent crime.
If this is a civil war, then WW2 was one too.
 

Strathclyder

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If by interesting, you mean 'rambling, incoherent and pure lunacy', then yeah. Very 'interesting' indeed. Fringe idiots like Elliot are best ignored on any topic, let alone ones as complex, nuanced and serious as this war and all it's potential outcomes.

Sanctions rarely work, because they are slow to be effective and incentives to evade them are massive.
Perhaps the only time I'll even remotely agree with you on this topic. Yes, our short-sighted government has failed to recognize that we are setting ourselves up for a tough situation further down the road. That was always going to be the reality though, regardless of who we have as head of government.

The EU is cutting off its nose to spite its face, but post-Brexit, there is no legal reason for the UK to have to follow suit.
Yet, as much as it displeases you, we are doing so anyway. There's nothing saying we can't, as far as I know.

Russia is also winning militarily in the Donbass and much of Novorossiya.
As has been repeatedly stated already, they are making these gains in these regions at great cost to themselves, something that they simply can't sustain long-term. I'm sure I don't need to tell you that winning battles is much, much different than winning the war. The West's collective ecomonic power far surpasses that of Russia, and it did long before 24th Feburary and the weeks following.

It is clear that the Ukrainian forces have put up valiant resistance, but are now at breaking point and their front in the Donbass is on the brink of collapse
Given what we've seen and what we know, Russian forces are far more likely to be ground down in Donbass than the Ukrainian forces.

partly because they lack weaponry to combat the superior Russian forces.
Quantity does not always equal quality. The Russians have proved that once again with the tanks they're now deploying, some of which (namely the T-62s) date back to the Khrushchev era for crying out loud!

Like I said before, that's the way pendulum of war swings and has swung for time immemorial. And besides, barring the little, if any, basic maintenance that these tanks likely haven't recieved, what happens to said tanks and the poor sods operating them when Ukraine fields those high-tech weapons from the next round of Western miltary aid? Swiss cheese, that's what.

However, the real winner in this European civil war is China.
If this is a civil war, then WW2 was one too.
If we're twisting the meaning of 'civil war' like this to suit this utterly deranged narrative, so was WW1.

Oy vey.
 

Cloud Strife

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Thanks you for pointing me in the direction of this illuminating video. It is clear that the Ukrainian forces have put up valiant resistance, but are now at breaking point and their front in the Donbass is on the brink of collapse

What collapse? The Ukrainian defence philosophy has always been to avoid taking substantial casualties and to retreat. Almost every serious analyst is saying the same thing: these Russian advances are coming at a tremendous cost, and they are leaving other areas unprotected as a result. Ukraine is in control of Lysychansk, above Severodonetsk, and that gives them a platform to bombard the Russian forces with.

I maintain what I said the other day i.e. Russia is making small gains but at great (and unsustainable) cost.

And they don't seem to be doing much with those gains. They haven't succeeded in any of their aims within the Kherson Oblast, and there's now a counterattack taking place there.

The other thing is that Ukraine should get artillery capable of reaching up to 80km. Stefan Korshak speculates that the Ukrainian plan is to draw Russia into an artillery war based on what has been promised by Western countries, which all but guarantees that the Russian supply lines will be under huge threat.

Given what we've seen and what we know, Russian forces are far more likely to be ground down in Donbass than the Ukrainian forces.

It's probably worth pointing out that scorched earth tactics won't help them with the occupation as well. They will be sitting ducks in Severnodonetsk, and all Ukraine has to do is keep pounding them until it becomes clear that no-one wants to go near the front line. Russia has thrown almost everything they have at this war, and they have very little to show for it.

It's also worth pointing out that Ukraine hasn't really even scratched the surface of what they're capable of due to a lack of equipment. Can Russia muster anything to equal the new US Lend-Lease programme? Probably not.
 

Strathclyder

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It's probably worth pointing out that scorched earth tactics won't help them with the occupation as well. They will be sitting ducks in Severnodonetsk, and all Ukraine has to do is keep pounding them until it becomes clear that no-one wants to go near the front line. Russia has thrown almost everything they have at this war, and they have very little to show for it.
Quite. This was partly why I cited the turn of phrase 'pyrrhic victory' in one of my previous posts here. Throwing everything they have at something at great cost to themselves with little to show for it? Certainly sounds like the definition of 'pyrrhic victory' to me.

It's also worth pointing out that Ukraine hasn't really even scratched the surface of what they're capable of due to a lack of equipment. Can Russia muster anything to equal the new US Lend-Lease programme? Probably not.
I doubt they were capable of that even before the sanctions tanked their economy. Now though? A impossible pipe dream at best.

But, if you were to believe certain people, Russia's absmyal combat performance in Ukraine was all part of the plan from day one and Putin has got something up his sleeve that will swiftly and conclusively turn the tide of this conflict in Russia's favour. Apart from more lies, bluster and empty threats of nuclear annihilation, that is.
 

kylemore

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An interesting article by Larry Elliott in the Guardian at https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ic-war-ukraine-food-fuel-price-vladimir-putin

Sanctions rarely work, because they are slow to be effective and incentives to evade them are massive. The EU is cutting off its nose to spite its face, but post-Brexit, there is no legal reason for the UK to have to follow suit.

Russia is also winning militarily in the Donbass and much of Novorossiya.
Just about sums it up. The Russians are laughing in their faces as far as the "economic war" is concerned

I've just dipped into this snake pit of a thread for the first time in a long time - you appear to be ploughing a lonely furrow to say the least!

Good luck with all the armchair fantasists on here!:D
 

bspahh

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The USA don't want to supply Ukraine with long range artillery that can target sites in Russia. As the front line moves away from the border, Ukraine they can give rocket systems that can target the Russian artillery and supply lines on Ukrainian soil. The American systems are mobile, accurate and can fire much more frequently than the Russian equivalents.
 

Cloud Strife

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Quite. This was partly why I cited the turn of phrase 'pyrrhic victory' in one of my previous posts here. Throwing everything they have at something at great cost to themselves with little to show for it? Certainly sounds like the definition of 'pyrrhic victory' to me.

I do wonder what Russia hopes to achieve, even if there's a ceasefire tomorrow. Rebuilding Mariupol and other cities will cost a tremendous amount of money, they will be at grave danger of being attacked by Ukraine at any moment, they don't have the capability to rebuild their armed forces to replace what was already lost: so what, for them, is the end game now?

But, if you were to believe certain people, Russia's absmyal combat performance in Ukraine was all part of the plan from day one and Putin has got something up his sleeve that will swiftly and conclusively turn the tide of this conflict in Russia's favour. Apart from more lies, bluster and empty threats of nuclear annihilation, that is.

We've been waiting for 100 days for this magical plan to be implemented and we're still waiting!

There is one thing that is clear to me: by the very limited use of missiles, it's very clear that Russia has nothing much in the bank. They could be pounding Odesa, Kyiv and Lviv by now, but they haven't done it. So, where is this Russian overall victory coming from? Even if they try and stop the war now, Ukraine will simply use the time to fortify the frontlines while bringing some serious firepower to the game. Russia has nothing to match the US weaponry, and they would be sitting ducks after a couple of weeks.
 

kylemore

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On what basis do you make that assessment?
On the basis that they are able to sell the oil and gas to other buyers who are happy to deal with them.

On the basis that the Rouble far from collapsing has gone from strength to strength.

On the basis they have the support of the second largest and some might argue the largest economy in the world, and the tacit support of others like India in the growing, expanding part of the world as opposed to the declining "collective west".

And on the basis that the "collective west's" military support is now largely token.
 

najaB

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On the basis that they are able to sell the oil and gas to other buyers who are happy to deal with them.
Oil, yes. Gas, not so much (the pipelines all head west). And at a significant discount over what they would have got from Europe.
On the basis that the Rouble far from collapsing has gone from strength to strength.
Because of massive intervention on the part of the central bank. They have propped up the Rouble by using most of their foreign currency reserves, and by forcing companies to trade in Roubles.
On the basis they have the support of the second largest and some might argue the largest economy in the world, and the tacit support of others like India in the growing, expanding part of the world as opposed to the declining "collective west".
I assure you that China is operating in China's interest, not Russia's.
And on the basis that the "collective west's" military support is now largely token.
MLRS systems started arriving in country this week. Along with 155mm Howitzers. Armed drones are likely to start arriving in the next weeks. I wouldn't want to be a Russian conscript sitting in a T-62 when those tokens start falling from the sky...
 

Cloud Strife

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On the basis that the Rouble far from collapsing has gone from strength to strength.

You do realise that 'published exchange rates' are one thing, but actually getting hard currency at those rates is another? It's well documented that people are having real trouble getting dollars/euro in Russia, and that the black market rate is hovering around 20% above the official published rates?

On the basis that they are able to sell the oil and gas to other buyers who are happy to deal with them.

At a substantial discount. It's certainly not a replacement for European euro, obtained in the free market.

On the basis they have the support of the second largest and some might argue the largest economy in the world, and the tacit support of others like India in the growing, expanding part of the world as opposed to the declining "collective west".

China isn't supporting them. They correctly understand that if Russia falls into the abyss, then the vast resources of Siberia are within their grasp. For that reason, China has zero interest in getting involved, and more to the point: it's bad for business.

Also, just from today: https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532621982109507585
China rejected the Kremlin's request for financial assistance
China balked at helping Russia evade sanctions imposed on the country after it invaded Ukraine, fearing the US & allies could cut off China from critical technology, Beijing official said - WP https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/02/china-support-russia-ukraine/
China refused to help Russia evade sanctions or financially support them.

And on the basis that the "collective west's" military support is now largely token.

Largely token? The sheer scale of the Russian losses should tell you that it's been anything but token. Russia has been forced into deploying the T-62 tanks, which tells you just how desperately low on equipment they are.
 
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DustyBin

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On the basis that they are able to sell the oil and gas to other buyers who are happy to deal with them.

On the basis that the Rouble far from collapsing has gone from strength to strength.

On the basis they have the support of the second largest and some might argue the largest economy in the world, and the tacit support of others like India in the growing, expanding part of the world as opposed to the declining "collective west".

And on the basis that the "collective west's" military support is now largely token.

And you refer to other posters as “armchair fantasists”!!! :lol::lol::lol:
 

Cloud Strife

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And you refer to other posters as “armchair fantasists”!!! :lol::lol::lol:

It is interesting to see how such propaganda is spread. Anyone capable of doing basic fact checking would know that the ruble's rise was artificial and not based on the market at all, yet here it's being repeated as fact.

There's a fascinating article here about the 'value' of the Soviet ruble in 1991: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-04-04-fi-2827-story.html - and what Russia has been doing is identical to this.
 

Darandio

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On the basis that they are able to sell the oil and gas to other buyers who are happy to deal with them.

On the basis that the Rouble far from collapsing has gone from strength to strength.

On the basis they have the support of the second largest and some might argue the largest economy in the world, and the tacit support of others like India in the growing, expanding part of the world as opposed to the declining "collective west".

And on the basis that the "collective west's" military support is now largely token.

This is like reading the Russian version of Comical Ali.
 

Strathclyder

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This is like reading the Russian version of Comical Ali.
That's giving it way too much credit!

I do wonder what Russia hopes to achieve, even if there's a ceasefire tomorrow. Rebuilding Mariupol and other cities will cost a tremendous amount of money, they will be at grave danger of being attacked by Ukraine at any moment, they don't have the capability to rebuild their armed forces to replace what was already lost: so what, for them, is the end game now?
Apart from boosting Putin's fragile ego, I honestly don't know what Russia hopes to achieve in Ukraine now.

We've been waiting for 100 days for this magical plan to be implemented and we're still waiting!
Something tells me that this so-called 'magical plan' doesn't exist and never has existed. Call me a 'armchair fantasist' if you must for harbouring such thoughts...

There is one thing that is clear to me: by the very limited use of missiles, it's very clear that Russia has nothing much in the bank. They could be pounding Odesa, Kyiv and Lviv by now, but they haven't done it. So, where is this Russian overall victory coming from? Even if they try and stop the war now, Ukraine will simply use the time to fortify the frontlines while bringing some serious firepower to the game. Russia has nothing to match the US weaponry, and they would be sitting ducks after a couple of weeks.
Precisely. This Russian overall victory has been slipping further and further out of their grasp with each passing week to the point of becoming unobtainable. Not me being a 'armchair fantasist' by any stretch, that's me reading verified reports from trusted sources of what's been happening on the ground and doing the bare minimum of fact-checking (and not citing articles by fringe loons like Larry Elliott and Peter Hitchens).
 

yorksrob

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On the basis that they are able to sell the oil and gas to other buyers who are happy to deal with them.

On the basis that the Rouble far from collapsing has gone from strength to strength.

On the basis they have the support of the second largest and some might argue the largest economy in the world, and the tacit support of others like India in the growing, expanding part of the world as opposed to the declining "collective west".

And on the basis that the "collective west's" military support is now largely token.

You want Britain to cave in to Russia as soon as possible. It's not going to happen.
 

kylemore

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You want Britain to cave in to Russia as soon as possible. It's not going to happen.
Err..I thought the war was in Ukraine.

Forget Britain - it's not important.

It is clear that the military aid in terms of missile systems from the US is being scaled back - it appears that wiser heads in the Pentagon may have told the ludicrous Biden regime where to get off!
 

najaB

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It is clear that the military aid in terms of missile systems from the US is being scaled back - it appears that wiser heads in the Pentagon may have told the ludicrous Biden regime where to get off!
Did I miss something, last I heard they were going to be sending HIMARS and the UK were going to be sending M270 MLRS?
 

kylemore

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They did draw back on longer range missiles which could have struck Russia.
Indeed they have.

They are supplying dribs and drabs.

They want to supply enough to keep Ukraine in the war but not enough that would risk serious direct confrontation with Russia.
 

najaB

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They want to supply enough to keep Ukraine in the war but not enough that would risk serious direct confrontation with Russia.
Erm... there are tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on (and in) Ukrainian soil. I think that counts as direct confrontation.
 

Brooklands

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Erm... there are tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on (and in) Ukrainian soil. I think that counts as direct confrontation.
Beaten to it. Ukraine had to agree not to use them to fire into Russian territory (direct confrontation) as a condition for supply.
 

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