Scotland - Framework out of the pandemic - 23rd February 2021

[devon_metro]

I applied to University of Edinburgh in 2008 as a backup choice (1st Year entry so got 3Bs).
Engineering works meant I ended up taking the sleeper to Glasgow and a train across for the interview.

Seemed a nice place.
I went back a couple of times because my mother's old work colleague lives in Edinburgh.

Don't really fancy it any more, I really don't want to be wondering whether I'm going to get harangued in the street because of my accent or anything like that.
Suppose it's the way it is.

Most folk are very friendly. It's the government which is the issue. Openly hostile to rest of the UK, manufacturing constant grievance. As a British person, it wears you down. Not to mention the shoddy state of public services and utterly depressing "roadmap" out of lockdown.

 

[kez19]

It's shut now for anything other than essential travel. It looks like they intend to keep that restriction in place even if she deigns to let us out of our local council areas because she's going to push for a one-region zero-Covid panacea.

Yet irony she’ll bypass those that stay close to Berwick/Carlisle yet those of us further north will get penalised as it doesn’t suit

I don't think it takes a tinfoil hat to assume that public health specialists would at the very least neglect pubs. Their primary mission has been against the demon drink for years. Ultimately public health seems to be more of a cult than an academic discipline, and should probably be drummed out of our university system.

Yet irony is who is part of Sturgeon and has the media limelight at the moment...Devi. So called doing things for greater good more like evil


Just seen that new ad with Jason Leitch, what’s the point in it other than making the viewers dizzy! Really this is what we as taxpayers pay for?

In Scotchland we get ads telling us we will see it through get dizzy with Jason, meanwhile for the UK we get told off and look people in the eyes etc, damn where is Harry Hill I’m sure he could setup a fight on TV Burp!

 

[Cowley]

I think it would be good if as much as possible we could keep some of the political stuff out of this thread where possible.
Obviously some of it is relevant but if it descends into yet another thread about the SNP then it’ll just start going around in circles again.
Be critical but not political if possible please.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

I applied to University of Edinburgh in 2008 as a backup choice (1st Year entry so got 3Bs).
Engineering works meant I ended up taking the sleeper to Glasgow and a train across for the interview.

Seemed a nice place.
I went back a couple of times because my mother's old work colleague lives in Edinburgh.

Don't really fancy it any more, I really don't want to be wondering whether I'm going to get harangued in the street because of my accent or anything like that.
Suppose it's the way it is.

As others have said it really isn't a problem - my partner is from Coalville, Leicestershire and has been living in Edinburgh/Musselburgh for nearly 14 years now, I think she's had one incident when a customer was rude and mentioned her nationality. She had far more anti-English comments when she lived in Cork for a couple of years prior to moving to Scotland than she's had in her time here.

A lot of purported "Anti-English" sentiment is actually directed at the UK/English Government not at "The English" as a population or indeed as individuals

 

[Butts]

As others have said it really isn't a problem - my partner is from Coalville, Leicestershire and has been living in Edinburgh/Musselburgh for nearly 14 years now, I think she's had one incident when a customer was rude and mentioned her nationality. She had far more anti-English comments when she lived in Cork for a couple of years prior to moving to Scotland than she's had in her time here.

A lot of purported "Anti-English" sentiment is actually directed at the UK/English Government not at "The English" as a population or indeed as individuals

"Coalville, Leicestershire" - older members will recollect that's where Palitoy use to be based ....

On the side of every Action Man Box

Anti-English sentiment mainly extends to sporting events that pitch the two against each other (Scotland and England)

 

[route101]

I applied to University of Edinburgh in 2008 as a backup choice (1st Year entry so got 3Bs).
Engineering works meant I ended up taking the sleeper to Glasgow and a train across for the interview.

Seemed a nice place.
I went back a couple of times because my mother's old work colleague lives in Edinburgh.

Don't really fancy it any more, I really don't want to be wondering whether I'm going to get harangued in the street because of my accent or anything like that.
Suppose it's the way it is.

Scotland is friendly enough , Glasgow was voted friendliest place or something. Its not quite cheery hello hello up here, we are bit more dour.

 

[MadCommuter]

I am English but have lived in Scotland for 15 years. In all of that time, I've only experienced one negative comment which made reference to me being English. I don't think this is as much an issue as it is thought to be and something which didn't help with my confidence for a few years.

 

[nlogax]

Scotland is friendly enough , Glasgow was voted friendliest place or something. Its not quite cheery hello hello up here, we are bit more dour.

Yep, it's far friendlier up here than than where I spend the other half of my time.

 

[duncanp]

This, on the face of it, doesn't make good reading for those in Scotland who were hoping for an early release from lockdown, as Mrs Murrell is going to make it harder for local authorities to drop down to a lower tier when the tier system in Scotland is reinstated at the end of April.

If these rules were put in place now, most of Scotland would be in level 3 (eg. Glasgow and Edinburgh) and some in level 4, with only a few places in levels 2 and 1.

But on the other hand, it depends on how case rates in Scotland change between now and the end of April. If case rates were to fall by an average of 10% a week over the next few weeks, the Edinburgh would be just below the threshold for Tier 2 at the end of April, and Glasgow just above the tier 2 threshold.

I wonder how strict the Scottish government is going to be in applying these thresholds, which I suppose depends to some extent on how the easing of the lockdown goes in England.

Personally I prefer the approach that Boris Johnson is taking, which looks at the overall situation, and not just one set of statistics.

Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels

When lockdown is eased local areas will have to have a lower number of positive cases before restrictions are eased.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels

New rules are set to make it harder for areas to drop down to lower tiers of Covid restrictions after lockdown is eased in Scotland.

The Scottish government hopes to return to the levels system from late April.

But if an area is to see restrictions lifted, the number of positive cases will need to be far lower than when the system operated last year.

The government said the more stringent approach was needed because of the new faster-spreading variant of the virus.

On Tuesday afternoon, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is due to update the Scottish Parliament on the state of the pandemic.

She has already indicated that on 26 April - when non-essential shops, hairdressers and gyms can open again - the levels system will become operational once more.

The whole of mainland Scotland went into lockdown on 26 December which resulted in a stay-at-home order. Only essential shops are allowed to open and all hospitality is closed except for takeaway services.

The Scottish government's updated approach is outlined in the its latest strategic framework.

Under the new system, local authorities which have a case rate of more than 150 cases per 100,000 are likely to end up in level four - when only essential shops can open and hospitality must close.

The previous threshold for level four was 300 cases per 100,000.

Cases will also need to drop to below 50 per 100,000 in a local authority before it will be considered for level two, much lower than the previous rate of 150 per 100,000. That is the level where non-essential journeys outside the authority boundary are allowed and pubs can serve alcohol.

The government says the changes have been informed by World Health Organisation (WHO) guidance, which indicates that some thresholds should be tightened.

The document says this "will have the effect of keeping some areas in higher levels than they would previously have been for the same level of incidence, which we see as a necessary response to increased transmission of the new variant".

There will also be some changes to the positivity rate thresholds from the levels which were originally set out in October, but the threshold for level two remains 5%.

The positivity rate is the percentage of all tests that come back positive and is a key measure in judging the level of community transmission within a country or local area.

The rate is calculated by adding up all the cases over the previous seven days and then dividing by the population of the local authority. This number is then multiplied by 100,000.

The Scottish government has decided to align its tiers with the WHO's "situational levels", which range from level nought - with no known cases in the past 28 days - up to level four, which is defined as an "uncontrolled epidemic".

The strategic framework document says that the weekly case rates and percentage of positive tests will remain "core indicators" when deciding which level a local authority is placed in.

 

[Scotrail314209]

This, on the face of it, doesn't make good reading for those in Scotland who were hoping for an early release from lockdown, as Mrs Murrell is going to make it harder for local authorities to drop down to a lower tier when the tier system in Scotland is reinstated at the end of April.

If these rules were put in place now, most of Scotland would be in level 3 (eg. Glasgow and Edinburgh) and some in level 4, with only a few places in levels 2 and 1.

But on the other hand, it depends on how case rates in Scotland change between now and the end of April. If case rates were to fall by an average of 10% a week over the next few weeks, the Edinburgh would be just below the threshold for Tier 2 at the end of April, and Glasgow just above the tier 2 threshold.

I wonder how strict the Scottish government is going to be in applying these thresholds, which I suppose depends to some extent on how the easing of the lockdown goes in England.

Personally I prefer the approach that Boris Johnson is taking, which looks at the overall situation, and not just one set of statistics.

Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels

When lockdown is eased local areas will have to have a lower number of positive cases before restrictions are eased.

www.bbc.co.uk

Oh they kept that one quiet didn't they.


Yippee.

 

[kez19]

This, on the face of it, doesn't make good reading for those in Scotland who were hoping for an early release from lockdown, as Mrs Murrell is going to make it harder for local authorities to drop down to a lower tier when the tier system in Scotland is reinstated at the end of April.

If these rules were put in place now, most of Scotland would be in level 3 (eg. Glasgow and Edinburgh) and some in level 4, with only a few places in levels 2 and 1.

But on the other hand, it depends on how case rates in Scotland change between now and the end of April. If case rates were to fall by an average of 10% a week over the next few weeks, the Edinburgh would be just below the threshold for Tier 2 at the end of April, and Glasgow just above the tier 2 threshold.

I wonder how strict the Scottish government is going to be in applying these thresholds, which I suppose depends to some extent on how the easing of the lockdown goes in England.

Personally I prefer the approach that Boris Johnson is taking, which looks at the overall situation, and not just one set of statistics.

Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels

When lockdown is eased local areas will have to have a lower number of positive cases before restrictions are eased.

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder though if she’ll play the favouritism game again, if going by the stats on that page seems Falkirk would be level 4 and I think was a couple areas near Glasgow?, the last time this happened she let Glasgow bobble up before doing anything whilst everywhere else was thrown - who is to say that this will stick?

 

[takno]

This, on the face of it, doesn't make good reading for those in Scotland who were hoping for an early release from lockdown, as Mrs Murrell is going to make it harder for local authorities to drop down to a lower tier when the tier system in Scotland is reinstated at the end of April.

If these rules were put in place now, most of Scotland would be in level 3 (eg. Glasgow and Edinburgh) and some in level 4, with only a few places in levels 2 and 1.

But on the other hand, it depends on how case rates in Scotland change between now and the end of April. If case rates were to fall by an average of 10% a week over the next few weeks, the Edinburgh would be just below the threshold for Tier 2 at the end of April, and Glasgow just above the tier 2 threshold.

I wonder how strict the Scottish government is going to be in applying these thresholds, which I suppose depends to some extent on how the easing of the lockdown goes in England.

Personally I prefer the approach that Boris Johnson is taking, which looks at the overall situation, and not just one set of statistics.

Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels

When lockdown is eased local areas will have to have a lower number of positive cases before restrictions are eased.

www.bbc.co.uk

Meh. If she wants to lose the election it's really her business. She's already going to be weeks behind England and looking increasingly demented

 

[Huntergreed]

This, on the face of it, doesn't make good reading for those in Scotland who were hoping for an early release from lockdown, as Mrs Murrell is going to make it harder for local authorities to drop down to a lower tier when the tier system in Scotland is reinstated at the end of April.

If these rules were put in place now, most of Scotland would be in level 3 (eg. Glasgow and Edinburgh) and some in level 4, with only a few places in levels 2 and 1.

But on the other hand, it depends on how case rates in Scotland change between now and the end of April. If case rates were to fall by an average of 10% a week over the next few weeks, the Edinburgh would be just below the threshold for Tier 2 at the end of April, and Glasgow just above the tier 2 threshold.

I wonder how strict the Scottish government is going to be in applying these thresholds, which I suppose depends to some extent on how the easing of the lockdown goes in England.

Personally I prefer the approach that Boris Johnson is taking, which looks at the overall situation, and not just one set of statistics.

Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels

When lockdown is eased local areas will have to have a lower number of positive cases before restrictions are eased.

www.bbc.co.uk

Frankly, they can stuff it.

WHY are they focusing purely on cases as a metric when we have an effective vaccine that will eliminate the vast, vast majority of hospital admissions and deaths from this virus?

That’s honestly just like saying “the common cold is a bit unpleasant. It won’t overwhelm the NHS but it’s not nice so we’ll destroy our economy and society in order to get rid of it, what a great idea”.

Unfortunately with zero-COVID advocates such as Sturgeon, Leitch and Devi up here, it’s going to be hard to change course; which could mean a very long, very restricted summer compared to south of the border

 

[duncanp]

I wonder though if she’ll play the favouritism game again, if going by the stats on that page seems Falkirk would be level 4 and I think was a couple areas near Glasgow?, the last time this happened she let Glasgow bobble up before doing anything whilst everywhere else was thrown - who is to say that this will stick?

Using my example of rates declining by 10% a week between now and the end of April, Edinburgh would be below the threshold for Tier 2, and Glasgow just above the threshold.

If Edinburgh dropped down to Tier 2 whilst Glasgow remained in Tier 3, I can imagine the trains between Glasgow and Edinburgh suddenly becoming a lot busier.

Also by the end of April, the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway are likely to be below the Tier 1 threshold, so I can imagine lots of day trips on the train to Galashiels.

Ultimately I think what happens in Scotland will be determined by what happens in England, whether the Scottish government is prepared to admit that or not.

If English pubs reopen indoors as planned on May 17th and nothing bad happens, there is no justification for keeping large swathes of Scotland under tight restrictions.

And if all restrictions are removed in England from 21st June then the Scottish government will have to follow suit pretty quickly, if only because schools in Scotland break up at the end of June, and the business community will not be happy about all the money flowing into England, as Scottish people take their holidays there due to the undoubted difficulties there will be in travelling abroad.

 

[takno]

Unfortunately with zero-COVID advocates such as Sturgeon, Leitch and Devi up here, it’s going to be hard to change course; which could mean a very long, very restricted summer compared to south of the border

Leitch wasn't keen on it at all last i saw him in the media. Even dentists have their limits

 

[Scotrail314209]

Leitch wasn't keen on it at all last i saw him in the media. Even dentists have their limits

Oh so the stoney faced man I've seen every so often, as well as splattered on YouTube adverts is a dentist? How does that relate to COVID-

 

[MadCommuter]

Oh so the stoney faced man I've seen every so often, as well as splattered on YouTube adverts is a dentist? How does that relate to COVID-

He does have a Masters in Public Health though. At least, according to Wikipedia.

 

[yorkie]

The link between 'cases' and severe illness and death is being broken, so I expect the obsession over cases to reduce over the coming weeks and months.'

The hardliners may pontificate their "zero covid" agenda for now, but it won't be long before they are faced with reality and realise that they need to open up to secure votes, save the economy and accept the downgrade in severety of the virus due to a build-up of immunity in the population (just as happened in the past with the existing 4 endemic Coronaviruses, only this time we have highly effective vaccines to rapidly accelerate this process)

He does have a Masters in Public Health though. At least, according to Wikipedia.

Nothing is according to Wikipedia

If the author is complying with Wikipedia's policies, a primary source will be provided.

Oh so the stoney faced man I've seen every so often, as well as splattered on YouTube adverts is a dentist? How does that relate to COVID-

Anyone who is outspoken is likely to be highly sought after by the media because it generates clicks/viewers/readers

 

[Yew]

Anyone who is outspoken is likely to be highly sought after by the media because it generates clicks/viewers/readers

Just look at the Prof of Primary Care Trish Greengalgh, certainly no experise in epidemiology or virology, yet she seems certain that masks work, regardless of the lack of evdicene, and that covid is 'airborne', again providing scant evidence.

 

[yorkie]

Just look at the Prof of Primary Care Trish Greengalgh, certainly no experise in epidemiology or virology, yet she seems certain that masks work, regardless of the lack of evidence

Isn't her argument that you have to wear multiple masks for this to work?

, and that covid is 'airborne', again providing scant evidence.

Problem is it depends on how you define "airborne"; it's certainly true to say that some people are keen to use the most scary sounding terminology possible though.

But let's not get too sidetracked!

I do think you will see a slow release initially followed by an accelerated unlocking as the reality of the situation becomes clearer

 

[MadCommuter]

Looking through the existing levels, level zero still has some significant requirements, notably on the numbers of people you can meet and working from home where practicable. I'm happy to be WFH as long as possible, but level zero applies where numbers are close to zero. So what is the requirement to move out of level zero?

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

This, on the face of it, doesn't make good reading for those in Scotland who were hoping for an early release from lockdown, as Mrs Murrell is going to make it harder for local authorities to drop down to a lower tier when the tier system in Scotland is reinstated at the end of April.

If these rules were put in place now, most of Scotland would be in level 3 (eg. Glasgow and Edinburgh) and some in level 4, with only a few places in levels 2 and 1.

But on the other hand, it depends on how case rates in Scotland change between now and the end of April. If case rates were to fall by an average of 10% a week over the next few weeks, the Edinburgh would be just below the threshold for Tier 2 at the end of April, and Glasgow just above the tier 2 threshold.

I wonder how strict the Scottish government is going to be in applying these thresholds, which I suppose depends to some extent on how the easing of the lockdown goes in England.

Personally I prefer the approach that Boris Johnson is taking, which looks at the overall situation, and not just one set of statistics.

Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels

When lockdown is eased local areas will have to have a lower number of positive cases before restrictions are eased.

www.bbc.co.uk

Once again the comments section speaks volumes.

Looking at the case rate graph in that article, the rest of Scotland is being kept in level 4 because of the Central Belt. Everywhere north of Falkirk/Stirling (which has high rates due to an outbreak at a bus depot) is at least worthy of level 3, if not level 2, even judging by their "revised" system (which is based on WHO advice).

I honestly don't understand why they're faffing over case rates and test positivity. In fact the test positivity is a bit flawed - it is supposed to be based on random prevalence surveys rather than symptomatic PCR testing.

 

[kez19]

Using my example of rates declining by 10% a week between now and the end of April, Edinburgh would be below the threshold for Tier 2, and Glasgow just above the threshold.

If Edinburgh dropped down to Tier 2 whilst Glasgow remained in Tier 3, I can imagine the trains between Glasgow and Edinburgh suddenly becoming a lot busier.

Also by the end of April, the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway are likely to be below the Tier 1 threshold, so I can imagine lots of day trips on the train to Galashiels.

Ultimately I think what happens in Scotland will be determined by what happens in England, whether the Scottish government is prepared to admit that or not.

If English pubs reopen indoors as planned on May 17th and nothing bad happens, there is no justification for keeping large swathes of Scotland under tight restrictions.

And if all restrictions are removed in England from 21st June then the Scottish government will have to follow suit pretty quickly, if only because schools in Scotland break up at the end of June, and the business community will not be happy about all the money flowing into England, as Scottish people take their holidays there due to the undoubted difficulties there will be in travelling abroad.

Didn't she say something like that as in had to backtrack in terms of easing - ie if things are going well in England she will have to speed it up a bit as she can't justify it longer?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...cktracks-lockdown-plan-suggesting-lower-tier/ (sure this was posted here) but post link again.

 

[devon_metro]

Understand the new WHO guidelines that the Scottish Gov propose using do not take into account the highly effective vaccination programme. As it turns out, the proposed return to the tier approach is a week or so before a Scottish parliamentary election. After the shambolic state of affairs over the last week or so, they're going to need plenty of rabbits to pull out of hats and a sudden lifting of restrictions is a big one!

 

[Butts]

I wonder though if she’ll play the favouritism game again, if going by the stats on that page seems Falkirk would be level 4 and I think was a couple areas near Glasgow?, the last time this happened she let Glasgow bobble up before doing anything whilst everywhere else was thrown - who is to say that this will stick?

As a Falkirk (or s**thole according to Gordon Ramsay) resident we could go from Level 2 before Lockdown to Level 4 after - wonderful

 

[kez19]

As a Falkirk (or s**thole according to Gordon Ramsay) resident we could go from Level 2 before Lockdown to Level 4 after - wonderful

lol I know where I am has been a level 3 but god knows, but I at least want 1 or 2 (or 0) but I doubt Sturgeon wants any part of Scotland to be 0!

 

[Gadget88]

When is the next lockdown review?

 

[317 forever]

2021 summer holiday options look like they have just become even more limited. I have already pretty much ruled out continental Europe, it seems like Scotland might have to be ruled out too.

I am quietly prepared that the best we might be able to hope for is a daytrip to Scotland. I am hoping to spend a day in Edinburgh as a side-trip from my holiday in Newcastle this summer.

 

[Gadget88]

Stay home message ends in Wales next week. I read 15th March for scotland is this still the case?

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Stay home message ends in Wales next week. I read 15th March for scotland is this still the case?

April 5th I believe is the plan for Scotland.

31 days to go...