Scotland post-Brexit - what happens next?

[Journeyman]

Not just people, also goods - all told it might be fairly close.

60% of Scotland's trade is with England. That remaining 40% isn't just the EU, it's the whole world.

 

[Senex]

I mean, and English Parliament would work and it would save the Union-but the English are different see devolution a bit differently. They tend to like centralisation (much like the South Welsh) and the last thing Middle England would want is a devolved chamber full of more left wing, pro-EU, lawyer types. Don't forget, there is less concept of "England" than there is of Scotland and, I could be wrong, but I think the English are much more close to their respective counties than the Scots and Welsh are. I think an English Parliament could work as a centralised entity in say, Birmingham, and County Councils acting as England's "House of Lords".

Or, you could just make Northumbria, Mercia, Anglia, Kent/Sussex, Wessex and Middlesex-Cornwall could be a 6th UK nation perhaps.

So the English "tend to like centralisation", do they? Isn't that very much a London/Westminster view of exactly the sort that has done so much damage over recent years? As for the concept of England, wasn't that rather suppressed into notion of "Britain" and more recently of "UK" (someone once said to give us a seat closer to the USA in the UN, which wouldn't surprise me at all) over probably a couple of hundred years and has only relatively recently been allowed to re-emerge? But I do think you're right about county loyalties, at least in some cases, and their being stronger than in Scotland and Wales. Certsainly some English counties, e.g. Lancashire and Yorkshire, Devon and Cornwall, do seem to inspire strong loyalties, though others seem to mean little to their natives. Maybe the solution for England does lie in some form of recreation of those pre-Conquest kingdoms (though God preserve us from getting kings too—one Sonderburg-Glücksburg-Battenberg is quite enough to be going on with).

 

[takno]

But how many people in Scotland need to travel freely to the EU on a daily basis, compared to the number who travel freely to England?

As has been pointed out with reference to the Norway-Sweden border, or indeed the Great Britain-Ireland border, you can perfectly-well set it up so that it's goods that are controlled at the border rather than people. To be honest I don't think there are all that many people who need to do either move on a daily basis, and many of the people who happen to do it because the border is so open could adapt their lives fairly quickly.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

So the English "tend to like centralisation", do they? Isn't that very much a London/Westminster view of exactly the sort that has done so much damage over recent years? As for the concept of England, wasn't that rather suppressed into notion of "Britain" and more recently of "UK" (someone once said to give us a seat closer to the USA in the UN, which wouldn't surprise me at all) over probably a couple of hundred years and has only relatively recently been allowed to re-emerge? But I do think you're right about county loyalties, at least in some cases, and their being stronger than in Scotland and Wales. Certsainly some English counties, e.g. Lancashire and Yorkshire, Devon and Cornwall, do seem to inspire strong loyalties, though others seem to mean little to their natives. Maybe the solution for England does lie in some form of recreation of those pre-Conquest kingdoms (though God preserve us from getting kings too—one Sonderburg-Glücksburg-Battenberg is quite enough to be going on with).

Well, I was only going by the results of the North East referendum and the polling for the other devolved assemblies. Plus the historic lack of grassroots support suggests that.

I think that although centralisation has done damage you would need to look at the success of the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments to understand whats going on. I know from my own studies, the Welsh Parliament has done pretty much nothing for Wales economically.

The biggest problem I think is the constant lack of care of industry that the societies of all four countries of the UK were built on for 40 plus years.

 

[takno]

Well, I was only going by the results of the North East referendum and the polling for the other devolved assemblies. Plus the historic lack of grassroots support suggests that.

I think that although centralisation has done damage you would need to look at the success of the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments to understand whats going on. I know from my own studies, the Welsh Parliament has done pretty much nothing for Wales economically.

The biggest problem I think is the constant lack of care of industry that the societies of all four countries of the UK were built on for 40 plus years.

The northeast assembly was a mess. The only thing that really holds it together as a region is that mandelson thought that Labour could win it. If they'd had a vote on a regional assembly in Yorkshire the result may well have been very different

 

[Senex]

The northeast assembly was a mess. The only thing that really holds it together as a region is that mandelson thought that Labour could win it. If they'd had a vote on a regional assembly in Yorkshire the result may well have been very different

Using the rejection of the proposed north-east assembly as an example of lack of interest in regional devolution is like using the electoral system referendum that was held as a rejection of real PR. In the first case the assembly that was proposed by Whitehall and Westminster simply added an extra layer of government, and one with very little real power at that. In the second, what was on offer was nothing like real PR. It's a real politicians' trick to put up totally unattractive schemes and then claim when they're rejected that the people have had their chance to express an opinion and have decisively rejected not the unattractive scheme but the principle of a really attractive scheme. But what, I suppose, do we expect of politicians?

 

[najaB]

60% of Scotland's trade is with England. That remaining 40% isn't just the EU, it's the whole world.

Is that goods alone or goods and services?

 

[JamesT]

Is that goods alone or goods and services?

Both. Scotland's biggest trading partner continues to be the UK - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Today’s annual export statistics from the Scottish Government show that more than 60 per cent of all Scottish exports go to England, Wales and Northern Ireland, more than the rest of the world combined, the figures reveal.

 

[najaB]

Both. Scotland's biggest trading partner continues to be the UK - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Well, some percentage of that would be to NI, so wouldn't require customs checks from an independent Scotland that was part of the EU.

And services aren't affected by border crossings.

 

[RT4038]

Using the rejection of the proposed north-east assembly as an example of lack of interest in regional devolution is like using the electoral system referendum that was held as a rejection of real PR. In the first case the assembly that was proposed by Whitehall and Westminster simply added an extra layer of government, and one with very little real power at that. In the second, what was on offer was nothing like real PR. It's a real politicians' trick to put up totally unattractive schemes and then claim when they're rejected that the people have had their chance to express an opinion and have decisively rejected not the unattractive scheme but the principle of a really attractive scheme. But what, I suppose, do we expect of politicians?

And it is a usual trick of people who don't like the answer to a question to attack the wording of the question, the person(s) who asked the question, the people who voted on the question ......

 

[Journeyman]

Well, some percentage of that would be to NI, so wouldn't require customs checks from an independent Scotland that was part of the EU.

And services aren't affected by border crossings.

That sounds like trying to ignore a statistic you don't like. NI's economy is a basket case. Anything significantly affecting the trade between Scotland and England would cause hardship and job losses on both sides of the border.

 

[Butts]

With regard to the "cross border" problems why doesn't Berwick upon Tweed just revert to being part of Scotland as it was for many Centuries ?

Throw in another former possession namely Carlisle - problem solved.

The "Reivers" would probably be back taking advantage of the situation as they did from the 13th to 17th Centuries

 

[jthjth]

With regard to the "cross border" problems why doesn't Berwick upon Tweed just revert to being part of Scotland as it was for many Centuries ?

Throw in another former possession namely Carlisle - problem solved.

The "Reivers" would probably be back taking advantage of the situation as they did from the 13th to 17th Centuries

It last changed hands in 1482, which is quite some time ago.
Anyway, moving the border just moves the problem somewhere else.

 

[najaB]

Anything significantly affecting the trade between Scotland and England would cause hardship and job losses on both sides of the border.

Anything significantly affecting the trade between Scotland and the EU would cause hardship and job losses on one side of the border...

Oh, wait, we're already there.

 

[Journeyman]

Anything significantly affecting the trade between Scotland and the EU would cause hardship and job losses on one side of the border...

Oh, wait, we're already there.

Sigh. I'm not disputing that, and I know the Brexit situation is a farce. But a hard border between England and Scotland would be far worse, and I wish independence supporters would admit it, because a lot of them know it to be true. They also know that independence would likely result in austerity on steroids for decades, but oddly enough they don't like mentioning that either. They're just as guilty of false promises of "sunny uplands" as Brexiteers are.

 

[najaB]

But a hard border between England and Scotland would be far worse, and I wish independence supporters would admit it, because a lot of them know it to be true.

I'm not an independence supporter, but I'm not convinced that a hard border would be as damaging as you make it out to be. One would assume that there would be quota and tarrif-free trade between the rUK and Scotland so cross-border trade would continue, just with additional paperwork.

 

[Journeyman]

I'm not an independence supporter, but I'm not convinced that a hard border would be as damaging as you make it out to be. One would assume that there would be quota and tarrif-free trade between the rUK and Scotland so cross-border trade would continue, just with additional paperwork.

So if "additional paperwork" between Scotland and rUK isn't a problem, why is it a problem between the UK and the EU? It obviously is, so don't apply a double standard. You don't get to moan about Brexit and then impose exactly the same issues on Scotland/England trade. You don't seem to have thought this through.

 

[najaB]

So if "additional paperwork" between Scotland and rUK isn't a problem, why is it a problem between the UK and the EU?

It's a problem between the UK and EU because we did a piss-poor job of preparing for it. The system didn't get its first end-to-end test until mid-December, and has crashed at least once since Jan 1st.

Additionally, the fact that the deal wasn't agreed until December 24th meant that nobody could actually practice doing their paperwork until they had to do it live.

In another six months to a year, once we've hired the 50,000 extra bureaucrats that we need, and fully debugged the system then trade with the EU will be almost as frictionless as it was when we were in the common market. I suspect that inspections and paperwork will only be adding a couple of hours to transit times. (Not to mention that we'll be doing a lot less trade with the EU as they'll have found new, cheaper suppliers).

 

[Journeyman]

It's a problem between the UK and EU because we did a piss-poor job of preparing for it. The system didn't get its first end-to-end test until mid-December, and has crashed at least once since Jan 1st.

Additionally, the fact that the deal wasn't agreed until December 24th meant that nobody could actually practice doing their paperwork until they had to do it live.

In another six months to a year, once we've hired the 50,000 extra bureaucrats that we need, and fully debugged the system then trade with the EU will be almost as frictionless as it was when we were in the common market. I suspect that inspections and paperwork will only be adding a couple of hours to transit times. (Not to mention that we'll be doing a lot less trade with the EU as they'll have found new, cheaper suppliers).

I still think you're being inconsistent. If the trade with EU problems will be largely sorted in 6 months, what's the problem with staying outside, so we can maintain frictionless trade with England, which is worth far more to the Scottish economy?

 

[najaB]

If the trade with EU problems will be largely sorted in 6 months, what's the problem with staying outside, so we can maintain frictionless trade with England, which is worth far more to the Scottish economy?

It's not trade or the economy that's driving support for independence, it's the distinct impression given by recent governments that (being charitable) they just don't care about Scotland, increasingly it feels like there's actual malice in the relationship.

 

[Journeyman]

It's not trade or the economy that's driving support for independence, it's the distinct impression given by recent governments that (being charitable) they just don't care about Scotland, increasingly it feels like there's actual malice in the relationship.

The current government is spectacularly incompetent and nasty to everyone and that isn't a uniquely Scottish problem. However, like Brexit, seeing independence as a possible solution feels to me like burning your house down because there's a spider in the bath. Relations between Scotland and England are at a serious low point, but that's because the SNP has a vested interest in deliberately provoking ill-feeling and mistrust.

 

[najaB]

However, like Brexit, seeing independence as a possible solution feels to me like burning your house down because there's a spider in the bath.

Just like Brexit, the independence movement is based on emotion, not logic.

Relations between Scotland and England are at a serious low point, but that's because the SNP has a vested interest in deliberately provoking ill-feeling and mistrust.

The SNP can't make the UK government do anything it doesn't want to do.

 

[Senex]

The current government is spectacularly incompetent and nasty to everyone and that isn't a uniquely Scottish problem. However, like Brexit, seeing independence as a possible solution feels to me like burning your house down because there's a spider in the bath. Relations between Scotland and England are at a serious low point, but that's because the SNP has a vested interest in deliberately provoking ill-feeling and mistrust.

The Scottish Nationalists may well have such a vested interest, but would they have been anything like so successful in stirring things up is the Westminster government hadn't managed to deal quite so disastrously with Scottish needs and aspirations — just as their C19 predecessors did with Ireland? And Westminster is slowly but surely stirring up the same ill will in the English regions, but in its metropolitan arrogance it either doesn't notice of just doesn't care.

 

[takno]

The Scottish Nationalists may well have such a vested interest, but would they have been anything like so successful in stirring things up is the Westminster government hadn't managed to deal quite so disastrously with Scottish needs and aspirations — just as their C19 predecessors did with Ireland? And Westminster is slowly but surely stirring up the same ill will in the English regions, but in its metropolitan arrogance it either doesn't notice of just doesn't care.

I wouldn't say metropolitan arrogance - they're managing to do a pretty impressive job of winding London up as well.

 

[RT4038]

Just like Brexit, the independence movement is based on emotion, not logic.

My take is that this is only partly right, as both are involved

Like many similar movements elsewhere in the world, the main drivers are groups of business people, professionals and politicians, seeking increased wealth (or protecting their existing wealth, where threatened) , power and self aggrandisement. There is a certain logic to this - "I want to be richer and more powerful".

However, it is not usually possible to get sufficient ordinary people to vote for you on those grounds. So you need to appeal to emotion - there is always an actual or imagined slight to be exploited - an area or group that are treated less favourably, financially or otherwise, immigration, resource allocation or old fashioned tribalism or patriotism. Take your pick, and mix. Whip up these emotions, and seek to hammer in divisions wherever possible.

A well tried and tested policy. Look closely to see where the 'logic' lies in both Brexit and Scottish independence. Finding the emotion is far easier. Cynical manipulation is what I call it, but quite clever if you can pull it off!

 

[PG]

I see that the campaign has reached the TV - SNP party political broadcast in between the STV and ITV news bulletins this evening. Seemed to be angled towards convincing No voters in the 2014 Indy ref that it was ok to change their minds.

 

[GusB]

I see that the campaign has reached the TV - SNP party political broadcast in between the STV and ITV news bulletins this evening. Seemed to be angled towards convincing No voters in the 2014 Indy ref that it was ok to change their minds.

That's a regular party political broadcast that has been doing the rounds for a while now.

 

[PG]

That's a regular party political broadcast that has been doing the rounds for a while now.

Ah right, I'm not the most avid consumer of TV so it was the first time I'd seen it.

Maybe I'm in the almost unreachable category of potential voters

 

[paul1609]

Personally despite being based in Kent I'm pretty pro Scottish having lived and worked there for a number of years I also have a lot of friends there. Overall I'm not in favour of Scottish Independence. However if you look at the percentage of GDP contributed by the UK Nations economically the break up of the UK would not be a disaster from an English point of view. The resultant English economy would still rank at around 8th in the world, Scotland would come in at 50th around the size of Greece. The Welsh and Northern Ireland economies are basically loose change. I think the Irish model of basically becoming a tax haven for large multi nationals wouldn't work with Scotland, not least because the EU itself is cracking down on it. I think a lot of the Scottish economy wouldn't survive the break up. The remaining shipbuilders on the Clyde and in Rosyth would go as their only customer is the british Government. Faslane Submarine Base is the largest employer by far in Argyll and Bute. Oil is in terminal decline because of climate change. Offshore renewable only have a certain market until the interconnections to England are saturated.
Having attended loads of England v Scotland matches at pubs in Helensburgh and Glasgow I understand the Scots desire for self determination but I am seriously concerned as to how they are going to pay for it.

 

[takno]

Personally despite being based in Kent I'm pretty pro Scottish having lived and worked there for a number of years I also have a lot of friends there. Overall I'm not in favour of Scottish Independence. However if you look at the percentage of GDP contributed by the UK Nations economically the break up of the UK would not be a disaster from an English point of view. The resultant English economy would still rank at around 8th in the world, Scotland would come in at 50th around the size of Greece. The Welsh and Northern Ireland economies are basically loose change. I think the Irish model of basically becoming a tax haven for large multi nationals wouldn't work with Scotland, not least because the EU itself is cracking down on it. I think a lot of the Scottish economy wouldn't survive the break up. The remaining shipbuilders on the Clyde and in Rosyth would go as their only customer is the british Government. Faslane Submarine Base is the largest employer by far in Argyll and Bute. Oil is in terminal decline because of climate change. Offshore renewable only have a certain market until the interconnections to England are saturated.
Having attended loads of England v Scotland matches at pubs in Helensburgh and Glasgow I understand the Scots desire for self determination but I am seriously concerned as to how they are going to pay for it.

To be honest I'm not sure how valuable any debates about economy sizes or the viability of individual nations is until we've seen the impact of Covid-madness and Brexit. The English economy may look a lot less healthy with a much-reduced financial sector.

It's also worth noting that the services sector is absolutely huge exporter both north and south of the border - just looking at heavy industry and suggesting that's all Scotland has is about 30 years out of date as a credible economic analysis.

On the defence contracts specifically, it's not clear that the rUK governments would move them all out of Scotland. It's also unclear that there's a long term future for the shipyards even in a united country. Either way, Scotland at least gets to stop spending money it doesn't have on a share of a vanity navy.