I agree.
I’ve been saying this several times throughout this thread but it seems to have been picked up on by nobody.
Croy has 4tph to Glasgow, 2 ‘fasts’ around 15 minutes (usually less) and 2 stoppers around 20 minutes journey time. It also has 2tph to Edinburgh of around 35-40 minutes journey time.
You’re looking at around 25 minutes quickest journey time from Cumbernauld to Queen Street, as well as around 50 minutes to Edinburgh 2tph. Add that to the fact that Croy is better sited to serve the majority of Cumbernauld. So the so called ‘taking pressure off Croy’ isn’t actually going to happen in my opinion.
I still can’t really get my head around the E-G via Cumbernauld service, as I have said many times, stations like Cumbernauld, Greenfaulds, Gartcosh, Stepps etc are deserted compared to the E-G line stations. It seems such a waste of paths, which really can’t be afforded on the eastern end of the E-G.
I think you really need to think of it as three separate concepts. You dislike the plan because of "Concept C".
Concept A
Strengthening of Glasgow - Cumbernauld - Falkirk Grahamston services from 1tph to 2tph.
2tph is a big improvement on 1tph and improves links from North Lanarkshire to Falkirk, gives an improved service from Camelon and Grahamston to Glasgow, allows the reversals at Springburn to be removed and gives Cumbernauld back a 2tph fast service to Glasgow Queen Street.
It also greatly improves the business case for potential new stations at Abronhill and Bonnybridge by giving them a potential 2tph service rather than 1tph.
I suspect you don't oppose this part of the proposal?
Concept B
Speeding up Stirling - Edinburgh services and adding capacity by running a 2tph Falkirk Grahamston - Edinburgh local service.
Removing stops at Polmont, Linlithgow (and a future Winchburgh stop) allows a faster Stirling - Edinburgh journey time. The new local service maintains existing journey times for intermediate stations and by having more services in total both Stirling and Falkirk commuters on the new semi fast and Linlithgow / Polmont commuters on the local service are more likely to get a seat.
Again I suspect you wouldn't object to this service as such, especially if it were a Stirling to Edinburgh local service. (we'll call this extended to Stirling local service
Concept B2)
Concept C
Direct (albeit slow) services from Springburn, Stepps, Gartcosh, Greenfaulds and Cumbernauld to Edinburgh. Achieved by linking Concept A and Concept B1 into a single service.
Stepps and Millerston has a decent 10,000 or so population catchment for the station, Gartcosh is a fair bit smaller although with the Scottish Crime Campus it does have a small inward commuting demand as well.
Cumbernauld is obviously in Scotland's top ten towns and cities so justifies a decent service but the bulk of existing demand is from Croy. Given the time differential it is obvious that Croy will retain the lions share of demand to Edinburgh, especially from those who use a car to access the station. However for public transport users and those based in south and east Cumbernauld it may be a reasonable alternative.
Perhaps if we look at Livingston which has a similar population and similar issues around parking capacity to Croy. The slower, lower frequencies services from Livingston South generate 300,000 entries and exits while Livingston North generates 1,200,000. Percentage numbers look about the same at Croy / Cumbernauld on entries and exits at present.
So it is unlikely that Cumbernauld /Greenfaulds will get more than about 20% of the Cumbernauld - Edinburgh rail demand (compared to Croy's 80%) but that is still likely to be a decent chunk of people.
Concept C also greatly improves the business cases of new stations at Abronhill and Bonnybridge by providing a direct Edinburgh service.
Comparison of Concept C vs Concept B2
So really we need to look at the costs and benefits of Concept C vs Concept B2.
B2 has the following benefits beyond B1:
- Dunblane / Bridge of Allan / Stirling / Larbert - Polmont / Linlithgow passengers are not forced to change train at Grahamston.
- Potentially Camelon calls can also be dropped from the semi fast service to speed it up further (albeit meaning Camelon would lose a 4tph service to Edinburgh)
- A new Bannockburn station could be opened without slowing the semi fast services as it could be served by the extended local service B2.
B2 has the following disbenefits:
- Timetabling from Larbert - Stirling may be more difficult especially as regards speeding up Intercity services
- Reversal of Concept A at Falkirk Grahamston also causes timetabling / capacity issues
So someone has to make a judgment call as to whether the benefits of Concept C are greater than the benefits of concept B2. To me it looks a nuanced decision that could have gone either way. If you are a Linlithgow - Stirling user then you are likely to be in favour of B2 instead. But it clearly isn't an awful decision. Concept C will have benefits and will have users. Its just a question of whether they are more or less than B2.