So we're on the downslope to mid-Sept and no sign of an HST in service yet, nor are any more refurbished sets apparent on the horizon.
Thinking ahead, what's the schedule for loss of 170s and 158s to elsewhere in the run up to the Dec timetable change? Are SR heading towards an interim slam-door HST vs service cancellations decision?
Not trolling, just wondering how the facts work out as time moves on, it must be coming to decision point soon given all the training etc that may be involved.
Hi Stoney1979,
I thought I might try and answer your question in this thread rather than the HST thread as it seemed a wider question of the total Scotrail stock.
So firstly the question is what stock have Scotrail lost?
158s said:
158867 leaving for Northern
158868 leaving for Northern
158869 leaving for Northern
158870 left for Northern Jan 2018
158871 left for Northern Jan 2018
158782 leaving for Northern
158786 leaving for Northern
158789 leaving for Northern
4 coaches left
12 coaches leaving
Northern 170s said:
170453 leaving for Northern November 2018?
170454 leaving for Northern November 2018?
170455 leaving for Northern November 2018?
170456 leaving for Northern November 2018?
170457 leaving for Northern November 2018?
170458 leaving for Northern November 2018?
170459 left for Northern July 2018
170460 left for Northern July 2018
170461 left for Northern July 2018
170472 left for Northern July 2018
170473 left for Northern July 2018
170474 left for Northern July 2018
170475 left for Northern March 2018
170476 left for Northern March 2018
170477 left for Northern March 2018
170478 left for Northern March 2018
30 coaches left
18 coaches leaving
Southern 170s said:
170421 left for Southern 2015
170422 left for Southern 2015
170423 left for Southern 2015
170424 left for Southern 2015
170416 due to leave for Southern 2018 but not wanted?
170417 due to leave for Southern 2018 but not wanted?
170418 due to leave for Southern 2018 but not wanted?
170419 due to leave for Southern 2018 but not wanted?
170420 due to leave for Southern 2018 but not wanted?
12 coaches left
15 coaches possibly leaving
156s said:
9 x 156s due to go off lease, think 5 of them are heading to Northern eventually but not sure if Scotrail are able to keep them in 2019?
18 coaches possibly leaving
I make that a total of:
46 coaches left already
30 coaches leaving end 2018
33 coaches possibly leaving or leaving later in 2019
On the opposite side we need to look at how the DMU requirement has reduced / will reduce:
Edinburgh - Glasgow via Falkirk High
Around 48 coaches (8 x 6 car) needed each day
Glasgow - Falkirk via Cumbernauld
Around 4 coaches (2 x 2 car) needed each day
Glasgow - Stirling / Alloa / Dunblane
About 10 coaches / 5 diagrams (not sure how many 4 car?)
Edinburgh - Dunblane
About 12 coaches / 6 diagrams (not sure how many 3/4 car, complex diagrams to unpick)
Edinburgh - Glasgow via Shotts
Around 16 coaches (6 x 2 car, 1 x 4 car) needed each day
This is very rough estimates as diagrams for all these routes are mixed in with other routes not due to be electrified and there may well be more peak services / strengthened services I haven't accounted for. But this gives us a sort of minimum baseline once these routes go electric. Broadly by May 2019 the daily DMU requirement will be reduced by at least 90 coaches compared to the commencement of the Franchise. The number of DMUs needed to provide 90 operational per day will of course be more like 100-110 units to allow for maintenance / overhaul etc.
The final question is whether there are sufficient EMUs to take up those paths?
320/4s
7 x 3 car in service
5 x 3 car planned
365s
10 x 4 car in service
385s
4 x 3 car in service
2 x 4 car in service
So that is 96 new EMU coaches available as of December 2018 plus however many 385s can be delivered by then (should be at least 20-30 more coaches).
