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Scottish Parliament Election May 5th 2016

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PaulLothian

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Out of interest, why do you find that objectionable? I would have assumed that most people, even in constituency seats will be voting for the party not the individual - with only a minority changing their vote on account of an individual standing. The obvious conclusion is therefore that where people stand in a constituency and don't get elected, it's usually not a reflection of the person, but simply a case of their choosing a constituency where their party wasn't sufficiently popular - so there's no reason to bar them from being elected through the list.

Besides, if people who failed in the constituency section were ineligible to be selected through the list, that would give a rather perverse incentive to all parties to avoid selecting particularly competent individuals in marginal seats (because of the risk of losing those competent individuals altogether if they lose). I can't imagine that that would be good for democracy.

I think you are reading more into my comment than I originally intended - I did say it was disappointing rather than objectionable! However, since you asked...

My concern about the list system is that the electorate has in effect only the ability to endorse a package of measures put forward in a party manifesto, not to decide on the person who is most likely to be successful in promoting these measures. This is increasingly relevant when the differences between parties's policies are slight, which is now often the case for the major UK-wide parties.

We have seen the unedifying sight of exceptional levels of jockeying for positions on the List, particularly among former Westminster politicians who clearly feel that they have a lot to offer their country (a view that their former electorates appear to have disagreed with, in some cases forcefully). In the course of these manoeuvres, it would seem that some very good existing politicians have found themselves knocked lower down the list, supplanted by people who I would never consider voting for if they appeared as individual candidates.

I believe that one of the strengths of current Scottish national and local politics is that many people are engaged enough to want to consider what strengths their candidates have, and whether these individuals are likely to be able to do what they say they will.

I know enough about about local politicians who I directly elect (or who would like to be elected by me) to make that decision. I recognise my constituency MSP and meet her at events and in the street, but as far as local list candidates are concerned, I have no idea!

There are solutions, but unfortunately all of them add complexity and increase the risk that misunderstandings skew the results.

One possibility that I do like in principle is to have the List Ballot paper naming all candidates for each party and asking voters to vote for an individual. All the votes for any list candidate for that party would be aggregated to make up the total vote used in the Modified d'Hondt counting system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D'Hondt_method). However, the candidate with the highest number of votes would be top of the list, and so on. This gives some degree of control back to the electorate. It would be perfectly feasible to also have an option for 'Any candidate of Party X', for voters who support the party but have no opinions about individual candidates.

There are various other tweaks that could be considered on the question of eligibility to attempt to make sure that we only elect politicians who appear to be actively wanted by their electorates. I am not endorsing any of these specifically, just noting that they exist. Among other things, we could choose that:
  • no candidate may stand for both a constituency and the list
  • a candidate may stand for both a constituency and the list, but that if he/she does not attain a certain level in the constituency vote (my preference would be for 2nd place) they would be also removed from the List, or dropped down the List ranking by an agreed amount

I do actually believe that Scotland has, by the standards of most parliamentary systems, a means of ensuring that its Parliament generally reflects the preferences of its electorate, but it's not perfect, and could be made better.

All of which makes the 'Scotland is a one-party state' line, offered by people who should know better, rather annoying - http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/our-one-party-state.html !
 
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overthewater

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Two weeks ago, a new poll has come out, claiming the tories could end up in second place, ( not because it improving but because Labour vote is in free fall)

This come from English company, No surprise....
Scottish Parliament voting intention (list):
SNP: 47% (-1)
CON: 19% (+2)
LAB: 18% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+3)
LDEM: 4% (-3)
(via Panelbase)


Another poll has at least corrected its self. a Scottish polling company.
* List vote (excl. DK). Con 16, Lab 20, LD 6, SNP 46, Grn 7, UKIP 4. Fwork 11-15.4.16
* Constituency vote intention (excluding Don't Know). Con 16, Lab 21, LD 6, SNP 53.
 

miami

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Labour being 1 point down doesn't really indicate "free fall". On the other hand Tory being up 2 points does indicate improving.

The proof is in the pudding though.
 

Butts

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Labour being 1 point down doesn't really indicate "free fall". On the other hand Tory being up 2 points does indicate improving.

The proof is in the pudding though.

I'll be pulling an "all nighter" on Thursday taking in all the "Election Action" from across the UK. "Train Nerds" have nothing on the Electoral variety :oops:

My predictions.......

Khan wins London for Labour in the Mayoral Contest

Labour retain power in Wales and narrowly beat the Tories into second place in Scotland. UKIP do well in Cymru.

Can't wait .....still miss Robin Day and his cigars :p
 

GaryMcEwan

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I'm in no doubt that the SNP will get another majority, even though Holyrood was set up so no overall majority could win...look how that panned out. I'm in no doubt either that Sturgeon will push for another neverendum during the lifetime of the coming parliament.

It's true what Willie Rennie said when Sturgeon would be 'undemocratic' if she was to force another one.

So thanks but no thanks SNP, Labour will be getting my votes...

#NoVotesSNP...
 

miami

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Surely it would make sense that to get scottish independence, the number of "yes" votes should outnumber the number of "no" votes -- so having lost the first, a second referendum would mean "best 2-out-of-3, meaning that the "independence" voters would have to win the next 2.

Lose again and you're up to "best-3-out-of-5".

Something like this most excellent film comes to mind.
 

dcsprior

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I can see I will be all on my own as the only Green on here...
I'm not a member of The Green Party, and have voted SNP for some time - but thus time round the greens got my regional list vote. This was for a number of reasons:
* the SNP are likely to pick up so many constituencies that they'd need ~60% in the list vote to get any list MSPS, which they won't, so I saw a vote for SNP on the list as a wasted vote
* the SNP weren't bold enough on tax for my liking (my opinion has developed somewhat since I last posted on here about scottish tax policy)
* the Greens are grown-ups who can work with other parties rather than opposing good policies just because they come from another party

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Tapatalk
 

Robinson

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I'm not a member of The Green Party, and have voted SNP for some time - but thus time round the greens got my regional list vote. This was for a number of reasons:
* the SNP are likely to pick up so many constituencies that they'd need ~60% in the list vote to get any list MSPS, which they won't, so I saw a vote for SNP on the list as a wasted vote
* the SNP weren't bold enough on tax for my liking (my opinion has developed somewhat since I last posted on here about scottish tax policy)
* the Greens are grown-ups who can work with other parties rather than opposing good policies just because they come from another party

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Tapatalk

I feel young all of a sudden :lol:

I voted for the first time in the 2014 European elections (Green), for the second time in the referendum (Yes), and in the GE last year (SNP, there wasn't a Green candidate in my constituency). Before that I have to confess I'd spent a good 3 years of my post-18th birthday life not getting involved in politics... :oops:
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Surely it would make sense that to get scottish independence, the number of "yes" votes should outnumber the number of "no" votes -- so having lost the first, a second referendum would mean "best 2-out-of-3, meaning that the "independence" voters would have to win the next 2.

Lose again and you're up to "best-3-out-of-5".

Something like this most excellent film comes to mind.

Well both the SNP and the Greens, the 2 largest pro-independence parties, are not committing to a 2nd referendum this coming parliament, whilst making it clear we haven't suddenly become unionists/British nationalists.
 

me123

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Surely it would make sense that to get scottish independence, the number of "yes" votes should outnumber the number of "no" votes -- so having lost the first, a second referendum would mean "best 2-out-of-3, meaning that the "independence" voters would have to win the next 2.

Lose again and you're up to "best-3-out-of-5".

What a load of nonsense.

There was an EU vote (UK EC Membership referendum at that time) back in 1975, and we voted in. Does that mean that the leave campaign need to win two referenda if they want to take us out of the EU?

Any vote, including organised elections, is a snapshot of public opinion. To be democratically fair, the fairest result in a simple "yes/no" referendum is a simple majority on that occasion only. Even if there was to be another independence referendum tomorrow, the franchise would be different because more young people have reached the minimum voting age, and some voters will have passed away. Although the change in my scenario would be marginal, it will only increase over time. Why should today's electorate be constrained by the decisions of a previous generation?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I can see I will be all on my own as the only Green on here...

I've voted Green you'll be pleased to hear :D

My first vote went to the SNP, my party of choice. I support Nicola Sturgeon as FM. However, I do like a lot of what the Greens say. Also, in Lothian, SNP did not get any AMS seats with quite a large proportion of the vote last time - I struggle to believe that they will get any this time and I think my vote is more productive going to the Greens, a party which I am sure will work well with the SNP.

I am expecting an SNP majority tonight, with increased Green representation. I hope to see Tories and Labour switch places, to give the SNP some competent opposition. I await Kezia's resignation with anticipation.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
No results yet, but a Labour source (former MP Thomas Docherty) has just called their own manifesto as "self immolation for dummies". :shock:

I think Scottish Labour are on the verge of seceding from the main party. Which can only be good for everyone. It's getting embarrassing.
 

Butts

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Good Night for the Scottish Conservatives, great to see The Greens help Ruth get elected directly in Edinburgh Central :D

Just look at the Borders completely "True Blue" from Coast to Coast.
 

me123

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Unlikely. They'll go for a minority government, gathering support on a case by case basis. It worked before for Salmond, and Sturgeon (the deputy FM) will have epthe experience to govern as a minority. I suspect the greens will however be really quite close allies.

Quite happy with the result to be honest :). As an SNP supporter, I'm obviously disappointed that there's not a majority by it's hardly a cataclysmic loss by any stretch of the imagination. Majorities will be rare in the Scottish Parliament and it will be a while before we ever see another majority. If we ever see another majority. They'll get their manifesto through I would imagine. It's such a secure minority that they only I need to get one party (or a handful of sympathetic MSPs) onside.

Brilliant result for the Conservatives, and despite my general distaste of their policies I am pleased to see the excellent Ruth Davidson move to where she belongs - the opposite side of the chamber, leading effective opposition. Although I am an SNP supporter, all governments need and benefit from a good opposition and I expect the new Conservative block to continue providing that.

In a similar vein, the hopeless Labour have been relegated to third place. They have been dire in opposition, so I am pleased to see that their voice has been reduced. If Kezia's five year plan doesn't involve ripping everything up and starting from scratch, that's where they'll be staying.

Brilliant night for the Greens. I'm pleased my AMS vote helped return a second Lothian Green MSP, and to have six of them in parliament will undoubtedly provide a good strong left wing voice.

Would have wanted a few more SNP seats and a few fewer Tory seats in the ideal world, but a pretty good result overall.
 

Robinson

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Why oh why did Jackie Baillie have to hold Dumbarton? I can now expect severe wind-ups from the van driver at my work who's been taunting me for days in the build-up...

On the plus side, though, am massively chuffed for Ross Greer who becomes the youngest ever MSP and the first Green MSP in the West of Scotland. Extremely happy to have played my part in that...
 

Butts

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Why oh why did Jackie Baillie have to hold Dumbarton? I can now expect severe wind-ups from the van driver at my work who's been taunting me for days in the build-up...

On the plus side, though, am massively chuffed for Ross Greer who becomes the youngest ever MSP and the first Green MSP in the West of Scotland. Extremely happy to have played my part in that...

Sounds like Faslane may have helped Labour in your neck of the woods. Still your "Lentil Munchers" can be proud of themselves. They did a great job standing in Edinburgh Central and handing Ruth the seat by default.

Isn't it ironic there is hardly any comment on The Scottish Parliamentary Elections on RailUK Forums , yet the irrelevant PC & C Elections in England and Wales have attracted far more comment. As for Wales ...nothing. Does this forum have a "southern bias"<D

Or perhaps charitably they can't bear to comment on a Conservative success !!!
 
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Johnuk123

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Isn't it ironic there is hardly any comment on The Scottish Parliamentary Elections on RailUK Forums , yet the irrelevant PC & C Elections in England and Wales have attracted far more comment. As for Wales ...nothing. Does this forum have a "southern bias"<D

Or perhaps charitably they can't bear to comment on a Conservative success !!!

I think you've hit the nail on the head there.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Isn't it ironic there is hardly any comment on The Scottish Parliamentary Elections on RailUK Forums , yet the irrelevant PC & C Elections in England and Wales have attracted far more comment. As for Wales ...nothing. Does this forum have a "southern bias"<D

There's been very little comment in these forums on the results anywhere in the country, not just Scotland.

Or perhaps charitably they can't bear to comment on a Conservative success !!!

Do you mean the success that saw the Conservatives slip to 3rd place in Wales? ;) (Historically much less remarkable than Labour's slipping to 3rd place in Scotland, but did nevertheless surprise me that no one has - so far as I can tell - noticed it amid all the intensive media coverage of Labour's parallel situation in Scotland)

I suspect that realistically, the lack of comment here is partly that most people are still digesting the results, and partly that no one has yet provoked a long discussion by posting anything really controversial or offensive :)
 
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St Rollox

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Well well well, the SNP back for another 5 years with a minority govenment.
The old SLAB party never listened as thousands of Labour voters switched straight over to Tory.
Now SLAB is like a dead horse lying in an empty field.
Sad the carreerists and chancers destroyed the old party.
Poorest vote since 1918.
Still for somebody like me who's trying to break up the UK, SNP v Tory makes it a lot lot easier as Cilla used to say.
Well done to Ruth.
She'll do a lot for Scottish Independence.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Sounds like Faslane may have helped Labour in your neck of the woods. Still your "Lentil Munchers" can be proud of themselves. They did a great job standing in Edinburgh Central and handing Ruth the seat by default.

Isn't it ironic there is hardly any comment on The Scottish Parliamentary Elections on RailUK Forums , yet the irrelevant PC & C Elections in England and Wales have attracted far more comment. As for Wales ...nothing. Does this forum have a "southern bias"<D

Or perhaps charitably they can't bear to comment on a Conservative success !!!

Sorry Butts, did you think i forgot you there.
Had a couple of days away.
Don't tell anybody but there's a few broad grins about.
It's a lot easier fight with SLAB dead.
Indy crowd on one side and unionists lead by the Scottish Tories on the other.
Be interesting to see how it pans out for the Scottish Tories especially in the Central Belt.
Will SLAB remain in a zombie state forever?
 

Butts

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Well well well, the SNP back for another 5 years with a minority govenment.
The old SLAB party never listened as thousands of Labour voters switched straight over to Tory.
Now SLAB is like a dead horse lying in an empty field.
Sad the carreerists and chancers destroyed the old party.
Poorest vote since 1918.
Still for somebody like me who's trying to break up the UK, SNP v Tory makes it a lot lot easier as Cilla used to say.
Well done to Ruth.
She'll do a lot for Scottish Independence.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Sorry Butts, did you think i forgot you there.
Had a couple of days away.
Don't tell anybody but there's a few broad grins about.
It's a lot easier fight with SLAB dead.
Indy crowd on one side and unionists lead by the Scottish Tories on the other.
Be interesting to see how it pans out for the Scottish Tories especially in the Central Belt.
Will SLAB remain in a zombie state forever?

Can Labour recover, possibly if the SNP lose their honeymoon effect and have to make tough decisions that they are unable to blame on Westminster.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Sure, but it's not "Conservative success".

I don't mind mentioning Cymru on here as it does not have it's own thread. The Lib Dems dived down to one and after increasing her majority in her own patch Kirsty Williams fell on her sword.

How do Labour hang on in Wales ? "Is it a red rosette on a monkey job ?"

Mind you they have no rural seats just US North and South !!!

I was pleased Leanne Wood PC's leader got a "proper" seat in the Rhondda , she comes across as genuine.

The Greens got SFA in Cymru in contrast to Scotland.

It's weird :idea:
 

me123

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Can Labour recover, possibly if the SNP lose their honeymoon effect and have to make tough decisions that they are unable to blame on Westminster.

Any "Honeymoon Effect" must be well and truly gone by now - they've been in power for nine years for goodness sake!
 

St Rollox

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Any "Honeymoon Effect" must be well and truly gone by now - they've been in power for nine years for goodness sake!


:D

Best not annoy him.
The one Scottish Labourite never posted on here for about 15 months.
He'll probably not be back now this side of the next referendum.

Butts is good crack.
He stuck by the Scottish Tories when they had nothing but a dodgy leader who saved up blank taxi receipts.

You can see the Scottish story only going the one way and it ain't backwards.
 

Robinson

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Well well well, the SNP back for another 5 years with a minority govenment.
The old SLAB party never listened as thousands of Labour voters switched straight over to Tory.
Now SLAB is like a dead horse lying in an empty field.
Sad the carreerists and chancers destroyed the old party.
Poorest vote since 1918.
Still for somebody like me who's trying to break up the UK, SNP v Tory makes it a lot lot easier as Cilla used to say.
Well done to Ruth.
She'll do a lot for Scottish Independence.

Don't forget your pro-independence allies in my own party ;)
 

cb a1

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Can Labour recover, possibly if the SNP lose their honeymoon effect and have to make tough decisions that they are unable to blame on Westminster.
Scotland has the constitutional question affecting every vote.

We have roughly half the population wanting Independence and half not.

We have one mainstream party wanting Independence and three mainstream parties not. Until that balance changes, I can't see how Scotland won't keep returning a minority SNP government.

As a minority government, the SNP cannot force through 'tough' decisions by themselves they need support.

As we saw in the UK coalition, it might be the 'smaller' party who gets landed with a disproportionate share of the blame for that 'tough' decision.

Interesting times ahead.
 

TheKnightWho

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Scotland has the constitutional question affecting every vote.

We have roughly half the population wanting Independence and half not.

We have one mainstream party wanting Independence and three mainstream parties not. Until that balance changes, I can't see how Scotland won't keep returning a minority SNP government.

As a minority government, the SNP cannot force through 'tough' decisions by themselves they need support.

As we saw in the UK coalition, it might be the 'smaller' party who gets landed with a disproportionate share of the blame for that 'tough' decision.

Interesting times ahead.

It will stop when independence stops being the priority issue in Scotland. Whether it will soon remains to be seen.
 

Robinson

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We have one mainstream party wanting Independence and three mainstream parties not. Until that balance changes, I can't see how Scotland won't keep returning a minority SNP government.

I can only assume you're still counting the Lib Dems as a "mainstream" party, even though we got enough seats to bump them into 5th place...
 

Butts

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I can only assume you're still counting the Lib Dems as a "mainstream" party, even though we got enough seats to bump them into 5th place...

Yes, but to be fair four of the seats won by LD's were FTP not "list" as all yours were.

Incidentally what happened to your fellow Greens in Cymru - they got SFA :idea:
 
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