Service recovery (or lack of) on GTR Great Northern

[Failed Unit]

Just starting a new thread as this one is a little off topic.

Lack of train crew on Great Northern?

There were then three "railway enforcement officers" who did nothing but stand and chat in a doorway between Hitchin and London, their presence offering absolutely zero value whatsoever. I've noticed this when armed police have been deployed at KGX, they are usually in pairs and spend most of...

www.railforums.co.uk

I see many issues that I just can’t understand happening regularly. the diagrams see to be over complex. For example

0832 Welwyn Garden City - Sevenoaks service on time.
At about 0825 an arrival from Sevenoaks appears. This train is emptied and sent to the sidings in under 7 mins
Then the late running Cambridge service comes and goes (at 0835)
the 0835 WGC Moorgate service goes follows the Moorgate including stops at Hornsey and Harringey.
finally the 0832 Welwyn Garden City- Sevenoaks arrives at 0842.(with a different set to the one arriving at 0825)
all slight delays but rapidily getting bigger - but the set swap didn’t help as if it was out and back like the last timetable all would be on-time again.ie train arrives late stays on p3 at WGC and goes out on time.

we have countless examples when a WGC - Moorgate is ran non stop to Finsbury Park on the slow lines behind a stopping train (are 717s allowed on the fast)

Thursday morning was heading to 0732 Welwyn - Sevenoaks. Looking around I could see no sets.stayed on platform 1 but was expecting to need to go onto either 3 or 4. At about 0730 an empty train arrives from the south. At about the same time a Horsham train stops and leaves picking up a driver (guessing the one for the 0732) doors not opened. The empty train goes to the sidings. Some of us experienced travellers are fearing the worse. We head for the 0735 Moorgate service. Even if the 0732 turns up now it will be stuck behind. The staff are still expecting the train to come but let us through the barriers. By Hatfield the 0732 is cancelled. Surely control knew about this? But lots of passengers that could have caught the 0735 are stuck at Welwyn because they were not told until after it was gone.

i don’t understand why the 0732 could not have got cancelled before hand as the Horsham train was stopped to collect the driver for a reason.

my experience is the GTR can’t recover even small delays. Possibly not helped by NR as when they skip stops it is often behind a stopper so no gain.

 

[choochoochoo]

we have countless examples when a WGC - Moorgate is ran non stop to Finsbury Park on the slow lines behind a stopping train (are 717s allowed on the fast)

Yes, they are allowed on the fast but they have a max speed of 85mph (even though they've been tested satisfactorily to 100mph)

 

[Failed Unit]

Yes, they are allowed on the fast but they have a max speed of 85mph (even though they've been tested satisfactorily to 100mph)

Thanks - I wonder in the peak if running one on the fast will have much impact on the 100mph+ trains it shares the line with. I know a train starting at WGC can’t get access to the fast until Marshmoor anyway. I have occasionally had a non-stop run on 717 on the slow, where the slow is clear and it does provide a useful recovery. So you wonder if it is bad communications between GTR / Network rail when they put the slow out ahead of the revised stopping pattern fast at WGC (Suspect gettting the platform clear is also a high priority)

 

[Horizon22]

Thanks - I wonder in the peak if running one on the fast will have much impact on the 100mph+ trains it shares the line with. I know a train starting at WGC can’t get access to the fast until Marshmoor anyway. I have occasionally had a non-stop run on 717 on the slow, where the slow is clear and it does provide a useful recovery. So you wonder if it is bad communications between GTR / Network rail when they put the slow out ahead of the revised stopping pattern fast at WGC (Suspect gettting the platform clear is also a high priority)

The main issue is that the signaller and NR controller won’t often allow due to the impact it will have on other express services. Similar things happen on the GWML, GEML and to a lesser extent the WCML.

But yes it is very frustrating to see a service amended non-stop then get caught behind a stopper which wasn’t held for a couple of mins which defeats the whole point in the end!

 

[GN Boy]

The main issue is that the signaller and NR controller won’t often allow due to the impact it will have on other express services. Similar things happen on the GWML, GEML and to a lesser extent the WCML.

But yes it is very frustrating to see a service amended non-stop then get caught behind a stopper which wasn’t help for a couple of mins which defeats the whole point in the end!

The amount of times I’ve expected a junction indicator at Alexandra Palace on the Down Slow or on the Up Slow at Potters Bar and haven’t received one, resulting in a sluggish crawl stuck behind a 717…

 

[sharpener]

Yes, they are allowed on the fast but they have a max speed of 85mph (even though they've been tested satisfactorily to 100mph)

I couldn't immediately find all the comparative specs, do the 717s have the same motor power and gearing as the 700s? Is 100 mph running likely to be approved any time soon?

The main issue is that the signaller and NR controller won’t often allow due to the impact it will have on other express services.

Presumably they would be happier about this if/when the 717s can keep up with rest of the traffic on the fasts.

 

[notverydeep]

Just starting a new thread as this one is a little off topic.

Lack of train crew on Great Northern?

There were then three "railway enforcement officers" who did nothing but stand and chat in a doorway between Hitchin and London, their presence offering absolutely zero value whatsoever. I've noticed this when armed police have been deployed at KGX, they are usually in pairs and spend most of...

www.railforums.co.uk

I see many issues that I just can’t understand happening regularly. the diagrams see to be over complex. For example

0832 Welwyn Garden City - Sevenoaks service on time.
At about 0825 an arrival from Sevenoaks appears. This train is emptied and sent to the sidings in under 7 mins
Then the late running Cambridge service comes and goes (at 0835)
the 0835 WGC Moorgate service goes follows the Moorgate including stops at Hornsey and Harringey.
finally the 0832 Welwyn Garden City- Sevenoaks arrives at 0842.(with a different set to the one arriving at 0825)
all slight delays but rapidily getting bigger - but the set swap didn’t help as if it was out and back like the last timetable all would be on-time again.ie train arrives late stays on p3 at WGC and goes out on time.

I think all of the Sevenoaks departures from WGC are booked to be formed by the last but one arrival and that turning the arrival straight around to recover is problematic because at least some of the departing drivers will have a break during the layover and won’t have time to walk back to the platform for a unit swap.

 

[Horizon22]

I couldn't immediately find all the comparative specs, do the 717s have the same motor power and gearing as the 700s? Is 100 mph running likely to be approved any time soon?



Presumably they would be happier about this if/when the 717s can keep up with rest of the traffic on the fasts.

I don’t think there’s any plans to up their speed so this will be for the foreseeable.

As a reference point on the GWML it’s 125mph & GEML it’s 90/100mph so you can probably guess which route is more conducive to letting a late running Elizabeth line, 90mph max 345 run non-stop…

85 vs 125 is an even bigger gap.

 

[notverydeep]

I am not surprised that 717s only rarely get out onto the fast lines. In my experience, even if the fast lines are clear back to Hitchin southbound or from King’s Cross northbound, neither the 100 mph capable 700s nor the theoretically 110 mph capable 387s will be considered for the fast lines to overtake a Moorgate service between Finsbury Park and Welwyn Garden City, in anything other than the most exceptional cases!

 

[jon0844]

I think all of the Sevenoaks departures from WGC are booked to be formed by the last but one arrival and that turning the arrival straight around to recover is problematic because at least some of the departing drivers will have a break during the layover and won’t have time to walk back to the platform for a unit swap.

That's correct, the train that comes in at xx15 and xx45 becomes the xx02 and xx32 out later. On some another driver takes it into the yard empty and back out later as some Ashford drivers don't sign into the sidings.

This can potentially cause delays if the other driver is late and it's not totally unheard of for a train to come out and show as on time, only to then block the platform and be cancelled as the other driver isn't there. Thankfully that's very rare but looks ridiculous!

 

[sharpener]

I am not surprised that 717s only rarely get out onto the fast lines. In my experience, even if the fast lines are clear back to Hitchin southbound or from King’s Cross northbound, neither the 100 mph capable 700s nor the theoretically 110 mph capable 387s will be considered for the fast lines to overtake a Moorgate service between Finsbury Park and Welwyn Garden City, in anything other than the most exceptional cases!

Do signallers have a diagrammatic display showing predictions for the existing paths so they can see accurately what the effect of switching something to the fast would be? [ETA something like this] Or how else is it done?

 

[Bald Rick]

Do signallers have a diagrammatic display showing predictions for the existing paths so they can see accurately what the effect of switching something to the fast would be?

Some do, but not many.

 

[GordonT]

Some do, but not many.

Is there input from bespoke software to (in theory) optimise the various routeing options to minimise delay?

 

[Bald Rick]

Is there input from bespoke software to (in theory) optimise the various routeing options to minimise delay?

Not really - its a huge amount of data to process

 

[Horizon22]

There are tools such as Luminate available which can show conflicts on a line graph if a decision to reroute was made, but that all takes time to input and check and the decision is probably made before that point.

From a service control point of view, you probably only want to choose option A (run fast) if decision B (run on the main line) will also be made to provide the maximum impact of option A. If not, choosing option A is effectively pointless. But there's a bit of back and forth about that and experienced controllers will probably know if they'll get a 'yes' or a 'no' to their request. Or worse something like "we'll see" which gives no certainty at all!

 

[sharpener]

Not really - its a huge amount of data to process

Yes but it's all available already and you wouldn't need to input it manually. So you could envisage the real time running times linked into the line graph if that is what it is called (see my link upthread) so it is kept up to the minute. Then you could easily visualise whether say a long distance express was running late to the extent that that a path had opened up you could switch a slower train into, or estimate the knock-on effects if not quite enough.

Maybe that's what Luminate does, it's a while since I read anything about it.

 

[Magdalia]

Not really - its a huge amount of data to process

One of the main features of technological advance in the last 10 years is the capability to process huge amounts of data quickly.

A good example is the Office for Rail and Road's station usage statistics, which would not have been achievable 10 years ago.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

One of the main features of technological advance in the last 10 years is the capability to process huge amounts of data quickly.

A good example is the Office for Rail and Road's station usage statistics, which would not have been achievable 10 years ago.

Indeed AI is totally predicated on the ability to process vast amounts of data in microseconds so its totally possible to run 100's of permutations to come up with the best recovery plan in seconds. What it needs though is training to filter out sensible solutions that are deliverable. Still suggest signallers and controllers can do that if it is accepted that sometimes they might not best call. All too often now staff follow the procedures/contingency plans then no one can moan at them about the decisions taken.

 

[Bald Rick]

A good example is the Office for Rail and Road's station usage statistics, which would not have been achievable 10 years ago.

I was getting ORR station stats 20 years ago…

 

[Horizon22]

Indeed AI is totally predicated on the ability to process vast amounts of data in microseconds so its totally possible to run 100's of permutations to come up with the best recovery plan in seconds.

Far too many variables to work that out, not to mention lots of human elements. Otherwise you'd just be running an automated railway, and the technology is decades if not a century away from being like that. Getting a bit too off-topic though!

 

[sharpener]

Yes but it's all available already and you wouldn't need to input it manually. So you could envisage the real time running times linked into the line graph if that is what it is called (see my link upthread) so it is kept up to the minute.

@johnsmith147 has just come up with exactly this and posted about it in this thread.

So now we know it can be done.

 

[Bald Rick]

@johnsmith147 has just come up with exactly this and posted about it in this thread.

So now we know it can be done.

On a simple line of route yes.

Try mapling a delay to a crosscountry service at Darlington, and what that does to New St 3 hours later.

 

[johnsmith147]

On a simple line of route yes.

Try mapling a delay to a crosscountry service at Darlington, and what that does to New St 3 hours later.

I don't disagree with you, it is remarkable how delays compound on that route. But I think this plot does exactly that and illustrates reasonably nicely why a 30 minute delay at Northallerton this morning resulted in an hour's delay later on and the train ultimately stopping short at Derby...

 

[Bald Rick]

I don't disagree with you, it is remarkable how delays compound on that route. But I think this plot does exactly that and illustrates reasonably nicely why a 30 minute delay at Northallerton this morning resulted in an hour's delay later on and the train ultimately stopping short at Derby...

Clever stuff, somewhat easier to portray history than accurately predict the future, as most historians know!

 

[Magdalia]

Clever stuff, somewhat easier to portray history than accurately predict the future, as most historians know!

But it doesn't follow that forecasting the future can't be done.

Weather forecasting has demonstrated that, by collecting vast amounts of historic and contemporaneous data, and processing it quickly to model how a complex system responds to perturbations, it is possible to forecast the future with a high degree of accuracy.

 

[johnsmith147]

But it doesn't follow that forecasting the future can't be done.

Weather forecasting has demonstrated that, by collecting vast amounts of historic and contemporaneous data, and processing it quickly to model how a complex system responds to perturbations, it is possible to forecast the future with a high degree of accuracy.

I think it would be more akin to a chess computer - a series of discrete decisions each with a given probability of causing other effects. Certainly far easier than anything to do with the weather. I think airlines have automated this kind of disruption mitigation for decades.

I'll have to look and see if such research has been done and if not try to do it myself at some point! Would need access to more data than you can get easily online though. Similarly to airlines, integration with ticketing data to see precisely how many people you'd annoy with each decision would be beneficial too, but I don't imagine that's been attempted yet.

 

[James90012]

Another pretty poor morning for those on the GN network. A train failure south of Gatwick lead to all Cambridge to Brighton's being cancelled throughout, all morning.

Realtime Trains | Departures from Letchworth all day on 20/03/2025

Train information at Letchworth all day on 20/03/2025. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[Minstral25]

Another pretty poor morning for those on the GN network. A train failure south of Gatwick lead to all Cambridge to Brighton's being cancelled throughout, all morning.

It seems that GTR have no processes or plans for turning trains on any route early. So, a fault anywhere from Cambridge to Brighton will cancel all services on that route.

Locally to Redhill it is the same for Peterborough to Horsham services south of London, and even worse with Bedford to Three Bridges services as any fault from Bedford to Brighton often means collapsing them too. They cannot turn any trains arriving from the South before London Bridge and even then, they are extremely reluctant to do so at London Bridge.

 

[jon0844]

It seems that GTR have no processes or plans for turning trains on any route early. So, a fault anywhere from Cambridge to Brighton will cancel all services on that route.

Locally to Redhill it is the same for Peterborough to Horsham services south of London, and even worse with Bedford to Three Bridges services as any fault from Bedford to Brighton often means collapsing them too. They cannot turn any trains arriving from the South before London Bridge and even then, they are extremely reluctant to do so at London Bridge.

They will terminate trains short if there's a driver to take the unit back who isn't waiting at its original destination. But some stations may not be able to do this, such as WGC terminating a 12 car train on platform 1 which can't fit into the reverse siding to start back. Starting from platform 1 means having to reposition to be behind the ground signal, then cross over the ECML to the down side, and I'm sure there are many other examples that mean turning trains early isn't always a good idea even if it was possible.

I have no idea what the track layouts are like south of Blackfriars, but I'm sure my example above is a factor.

 

[Magdalia]

It seems that GTR have no processes or plans for turning trains on any route early. So, a fault anywhere from Cambridge to Brighton will cancel all services on that route

There are plenty of instances of terminating northbound trains at Letchworth and southbound trains at Three Bridges.

But reversals at Letchworth or three Bridges can't work if there are traincrew changes at Cambridge or Brighton.