Settle & Carlisle Line - Past, Present & Future

[Bantamzen]

I do think it's a shame that the line wasn't included as a Northern Connect route however even without that improve the product on offer in terms of rolling stock by ensuring that all services (other than perhaps at the extremes of the day) are four car 158s.

Making the route a Connect one would make more sense if extending at least some of the Leeds-Carlisle to Glasgow was being considered as an option.

We could perhaps compare a prospective Leeds-Glasgow service with the current Manchester-Glasgow service.

On the face of it they have quite a lot in common. At the southern end they both have a conurbation where they connect the major urban centre to surrounding towns. They then enter a rural area with little demand before hitting Carlisle from where they could share the same route.

The differences which work against Leeds-Glasgow via S&C are:
1. Manchester is a bigger urban centre than Leeds/Bradford, connecting to bigger surrounding towns so demand is generally higher.
2. The WCML provides a significantly shorter journey time than S&C.
3. Leeds-Glasgow has an alternative route already via ECML.

That said I'm not convinced those are enough to kill the idea completely. Living on the west side of Leeds I've often found going via S&C is quicker to get back from Glasgow (and sometimes Edinburgh). The same must be true for large areas of Bradford.

Two trains (say Class 185s) could provide 3 services each way per day. With limited stops between Keighley and Carlisle, an end-to-end journey of 3hr30 should be possible.

Wouldn't that be worth a punt to gauge if the demand is there?

I've been up to Glasgow a couple of times now, albeit starting at Shipley, and although the point to point timings are longer via the S&C, this has been mainly down to long connection times at Carlisle. An extended service up the WCML could shave at least 30-40 minutes off some of the journeys, making it potentially a very viable alternative to the often rammed XC Voyagers.

 

[GrimShady]

I would certainly use a Glasgow - Leeds service providing it had the right type on train. Going all the way down the ECML and back west again is a long way round.

 

[underbank]

You're never going to grow passenger numbers with a two hourly service. All you're ever going to get are locals/OAPs who aren't bothered if and when they get to their destination and tourists/walkers who are spending a full day walking and can plan their day around a 2 hourly service. If an OAP finds their service is cancelled or they've just missed it, they can go back home for a couple of hours for a cuppa or do some gardening or whatever, or just do it the next day. If a tourist, you've just ruined their day's plans. If a worker, you've just cost them two hours pay and maybe even their job. Bad enough having to wait an hour for the next train, but that's just about acceptable and doesn't have the same potential to ruin your day or cost you your job. I think there should be a nationwide minimum service level of hourly during the day reverting to two hourly only at evenings.

 

[quantinghome]

Bolton, Preston and Lancaster are rather more than just rural areas. Preston and Lancaster are not part of the Manchester conurbation.
Seems like a solution looking for a problem. Forget the S&C as a fast passenger route and leave it as a rural all stations basic passenger service from Skipton to Carlisle plus freight. After all the S&C never had much of a passenger service but carried quite a lot of freight.

The problem is that journeys between West Yorkshire and Glasgow, the 4th and 5th largest urban areas in the country, are poorly served by current rail options. A direct journey via S&C would be quicker than the current congested and circuitous route via ECML. The objection to this idea is that S&C doesn't pass through much on the way so you're reliant on the demand for the end-to-end journey, which is not well-established. The objection is not without merit, but my question is if Glasgow-Manchester is viable, why not Glasgow-Leeds? Although the WCML passes through larger towns, I would be surprised if Preston and Lancaster made all the difference, and both routes have a significant commuter element at the southern end so that can't be the difference either. Glasgow-Manchester had a pretty irregular service prior to its transfer to Transpennine. It's grown massively since then, and now Glasgow-Liverpool is being established as a direct route. Why not give Glasgow-Leeds a punt and see if the same thing happens?

 

[DarloRich]

Is there not a case for the S&C, Bentham line, Windermere, (maybe even Cumbria Coast and Furness) to be run by a separate franchise, perhaps WCRC, so that they're run by a firm that would have more focus on tourism as opposed to the likes of Northern or TPX that are primarily commuter focussed, but of course with franchise conditions that commuters/school services are still provided as part of the franchise. So, perhaps you could have trains doing the workers/school runs on fairly intensive services start/end of the day which then revert to "touristy" duties during the quiet parts of the day and weekends. Just seems that we need a more tourist-focussed firm to develop these routes.

No. Not beyond some kind of Jacobite service

I do think that there is potential behind a Jacobite style steam service over the line in the summer months perhaps running from Skipton to Carlisle with calls at Settle and Appleby on route and if I were the Local Authority/Tourist Board/Friends of the S&C I'd be sounding out West Coast Railways on whether they'd be up for it. But I would say that it's absolutely not the role of the franchised (subsidised!) TOC to be getting involved with. Neither should a heritage operator like WCRC be involved in running the bread and butter service up and down the line.

Agreed - and i think this is an "open goal" for tourist monies!

 

[Bletchleyite]

You're never going to grow passenger numbers with a two hourly service. All you're ever going to get are locals/OAPs who aren't bothered if and when they get to their destination and tourists/walkers who are spending a full day walking and can plan their day around a 2 hourly service. If an OAP finds their service is cancelled or they've just missed it, they can go back home for a couple of hours for a cuppa or do some gardening or whatever, or just do it the next day. If a tourist, you've just ruined their day's plans. If a worker, you've just cost them two hours pay and maybe even their job. Bad enough having to wait an hour for the next train, but that's just about acceptable and doesn't have the same potential to ruin your day or cost you your job. I think there should be a nationwide minimum service level of hourly during the day reverting to two hourly only at evenings.

Or ensure the service is operated reliably. Just because Northern are incapable of properly managing their staffing levels and industrial relations does not mean other TOCs are that way afflicted as well. Other than the Marston Vale (where there's a specific issue with unit reliability which the 230s will hopefully remedy), I find cancellations so rare on LNR that I can't even remember the last time one affected me, and on VTWC the last one I remember was caused by the line north of Preston being under several feet of water, so is probably fair enough.

 

[30907]

I see it from both sides. I think we can all agree that the route from Leeds - Skipton - Lancaster is horrendously under-served; and that the Settle & Carlisle lacks a half-decent 'clockface' timetable.

Skipton-Lancaster is pretty well served now, except for a morning commuter train into Lancaster - which just happens to be the one that is expensive to resource because the unit isn't desperately needed once it gets back to Leeds.

The S and C timetable may not be clockface, but it is a reasonable compromise to serve the primary passenger flows (except the long midday gap southbound) which are day trippers out from West Yorks, coach tour passengers using Settle, and commuters.
E.g. retiming the 104x to 1118 would provide an exact 2-hourly interval but probably overload the 0919. You could run a "fast" at 0848 to relieve the 0919 but that's an extra crew and possibly extra vehicle mileage (is the 0919 3 or 4 nowadays?) and that is unlikely to pay for itself, sadly.

 

[Glenn1969]

Even a reliable 2 hourly service is inadequate to get people out of their cars because if you just miss it for whatever reason you have too long to wait for the next one

My point about diversions is also that some people will just choose to drive rather than use a replacement bus under most curcumstances

For clarification I have no choice because due to eyesight I don't drive

 

[30907]

The objection to this idea is that S&C doesn't pass through much on the way so you're reliant on the demand for the end-to-end journey, which is not well-established. The objection is not without merit, but my question is if Glasgow-Manchester is viable, why not Glasgow-Leeds? Although the WCML passes through larger towns, I would be surprised if Preston and Lancaster made all the difference, and both routes have a significant commuter element at the southern end so that can't be the difference either.

Preston and Lancaster (and indeed Oxenholme) do a lot of TPE business, partly because of Airport and Blackpool traffic, and the market has grown because of the price war with VT.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Meh. BR had plenty of different and incompatible coupling and multiple working systems
BR may be missed, there's an argument it shouldn't have been privatised. But it was. It's gone. Nationalisation won't bring it back.

DMU (and some EMU's) , maybe - not that DMU's much used this line.

just for the record , virtually all BR locomotives and hauled stock relied on 2 kinds of couplings - the standard red painted passenger screw coupling , and the trusty buck-eye. The latter of course was 100% compatible with the previous mentioned screw coupling. (once it had been dropped)

 

[ainsworth74]

Agreed - and i think this is an "open goal" for tourist monies!

Absolutely. Looking at the Jacobite as a model they do two round trips from Fort William to Mallaig per day one in the morning and one in the afternoon. With around an hour and a half to two hours in Mallaig. Each way takes around two hours so with the break in the middle it's about six hours in total. Price for a return in Standard is about £38 and £60 in first and they even do a line in cream teams for an extra £18. I mean, personally, I don't see how something similar on the S&C wouldn't work!

Plus it would have benefits all around really. Those that are just doing the line "because it's there and scenic" such as coach parties would be better catered for by a dedicated service like this (plus they'll no doubt love steam) which will likely help grow that market by being more reliable as a dedicated service (as someone who is a train guide for Friends of the S&C said in a recent issue of RAIL there's nothing like the disappointment of expecting a reserved seat on a 4-car 158 and ending up with no seat and standing in the vestibule when a 2-car 150 shows up), offering a high quality of accommodation (including first class) plus being an attraction in its own right. Then there would also be the benefits of freeing up space on the normal services for local people, walkers and other users of the line rather than having maybe a whole carriage taken out by a coach party.

Seems like a win win win!

Which makes me suspicious that there must be some reason for why it's not already happened. WCRC seem like the sort that aren't short of an idea or two when it comes to exploiting a market (see their various other mainline steam services like the Jacobite or the Scarborough Spa Express). Plus others have achieved similar things on other routes(see the Shakespeare Express in the Birmingham area or the Torbay Express down in the South West from Bristol). So why has no-one tried it here?

 

[philjo]

Absolutely. Looking at the Jacobite as a model they do two round trips from Fort William to Mallaig per day one in the morning and one in the afternoon. With around an hour and a half to two hours in Mallaig. Each way takes around two hours so with the break in the middle it's about six hours in total. Price for a return in Standard is about £38 and £60 in first and they even do a line in cream teams for an extra £18. I mean, personally, I don't see how something similar on the S&C wouldn't work!

Which makes me suspicious that there must be some reason for why it's not already happened. WCRC seem like the sort that aren't short of an idea or two when it comes to exploiting a market (see their various other mainline steam services like the Jacobite or the Scarborough Spa Express). Plus others have achieved similar things on other routes(see the Shakespeare Express in the Birmingham area or the Torbay Express down in the South West from Bristol). So why has no-one tried it here?

WCRC are running The Dalesman steam service via Settle on Selected dates throughout the summer.

https://www.westcoastrailways.co.uk/thedalesman/dalesman-steam-experience.cfm

Some trains start from York and others start at Chester.
Though the York services go via Normanton, Wakefield and Leeds so it is rather a long day for most tourists (0830 start from York, arrive back at 2200)

A shorter trip between Skipton and Carlisle would be be popular for tourists.

 

[quantinghome]

Preston and Lancaster (and indeed Oxenholme) do a lot of TPE business, partly because of Airport and Blackpool traffic, and the market has grown because of the price war with VT.

That's interesting. If we pretended that Preston and Lancaster (and perhaps Oxenholme) didn't exist, would Glasgow-Manchester still be viable? Or is it ultimately relying on the cumulative effect of shorter journeys along the route rather than the end-to-end demand?

 

[Roast Veg]

The S&C is, rarely, a viable route from the East Midlands to Northwest England and Southwest Scotland. I travelled from Chesterfield to Girvan last summer and it proved to be about 20 minutes down on services via the WCML. Even a 75mph upgrade would increase its presence in journey planners and boost traffic.

 

[ChrisC]

The long journey times, due to all the stops and 60mph line speed, does result in through journeys from the East Midlands and Yorkshire via the S&C not showing up on journey planners.

I’m going to Dumfries from Mansfield for a week in June and the journey planners mainly come up with journeys requiring changes at Nottingham, Manchester and Carlisle, or Nottingham, Derby, Crewe and Carlisle. However, by entering via Appleby into the journey planner it came up with a very acceptable outward journey changing at Worksop, Leeds and Carlisle. Unfortunately unless I’m willing to leave at 0714 in the morning the return journey is extremely slow due to very lengthy waits for connections at both Carlisle and Leeds. As I’m staying close to the station in the Station Hotel in Dumfries I will probably have my breakfast at 7am and catch the 0741 from Dumfries which only allows 6 minutes for the connection to Leeds at Carlisle. If I miss it I will travel via Manchester instead.

I’m the type of passenger who will not be in a hurry, doesn’t mind the longer journey time via the S&C, and will appreciate the scenery. I actually also find a 158 more comfortable and less cramped than some more modern trains and good to have overhead luggage racks where I can store my small case in view from where I’m sitting. Hopefully the 1318 from Leeds to Carlisle and the 0824 return won’t be too overcrowded on weekdays.

 

[InOban]

If there was some kind of route development fund, as there is for flights from regional airports, I would be trialling a 185 every two hours from Glasgow running semifast via the WCML andd then limited stop to Leeds.

 

[30907]

WCRC are running The Dalesman steam service via Settle on Selected dates throughout the summer.

https://www.westcoastrailways.co.uk/thedalesman/dalesman-steam-experience.cfm

Some trains start from York and others start at Chester.
Though the York services go via Normanton, Wakefield and Leeds so it is rather a long day for most tourists (0830 start from York, arrive back at 2200)

A shorter trip between Skipton and Carlisle would be be popular for tourists.

Interesting that they have decided to shorten the steam section but start further afield, that seems to be almost what you are suggesting.
Just Skipton Carlisle would be difficult operationally (long ECS mileage and restricted layout - I recall the Tornado operation!) and the pax still have to get there from their homes and tourists visiting the Dales will want/need to park reasonably near the station which is, to say the least, problematic.

 

[randyrippley]

How's this?

1tp2h Leeds-Shipley-Bingley-Keighley-Skipton-Hellifield-Settle-Horton-Ribblehead-Dent-Garsdale-Kirkby Stephen-Appleby-Langwathby-Lazonby-Armathwaite-Carlisle

1tp2h Leeds-Shipley-Keighley-Skipton, where the train divides:

• back portion: Gargrave-Hellifield-Long Preston-Giggleswick-Clapham-Bentham-Wellington-Carnforth-Lancaster-Bare Lane-Morecambe, continuing every four hours to Heysham Harbour
• front portion: Settle-Kirkby Stephen-Appleby-Carlisle-Annan-Dumfries-Kilmarnock-Stewarton-Barrhead-Glasgow Central
• one service per day in each direction starts from/terminates at Bradford Forster Square rather than Leeds

Totally pointless running to Heysham harbour except to link with the daily daytime Manx ferry service.
You'd be better off terminating at Lancaster anyway - there's little traffic onto the Leeds route from Morecambe. Most people from Morecambe are heading south to Preston / Manchester / London and would be better served by a Morecambe-Preston service.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

If there was some kind of route development fund, as there is for flights from regional airports, I would be trialling a 185 every two hours from Glasgow running semifast via the WCML andd then limited stop to Leeds.

Back in the days of the Strategic Rail Authority , there was something called the Rail Partnership Programme , which allowed new services to be put in , which were outside the normal franchise agreements, subject of course to a good business case and some "strategic" consideration. Was an excellent idea , and good results delivered on such things as the Vale of Glamorgan , lots of little schemes in Anglia - the absolute pearl being Cambridge to Norwich , the first stage of the Borders (Newcraighall) - the latter deliberately done as a springboard , Sunday hourly services Manchester to Clithero and many , many others - station ones being Beauly and Ludlow. Both winners.

Of course , some were knocked back - dare I mention the Llandudno to Blaenau Ffestiniog line , and Longbridge to Frankley.

It was a deeply satisfying monthly meeting , with sponsers often invited to plead their case to a receptive audience - the very first being 2 extra 150's for struggling Wales and West to better serve the rapidly growing Filton Abbey Wood - we made the case by sweating those 150's on off peak services for Weymouth Summer Saturdays , Cardiff Rugby , Exeter area Xmas shopping . (an off the record coffee meeting)

The Treasury withdrew this "non essential" socio- economic funding, - attempts to bring it back have never happened.

Most authorised schemes live on to this day. Sometimes you went home with a glow of having done something sensible and useful.

 

[trainmananthon]

Just thought I’d throw this out there as a guide that works on the line and travels on the services on a daily basis......

The 0919/1049 Leeds - Carlisle services and 1404/1450 Carlisle - Leeds services are booked as a 3 car (1x 158+1x 153) and are very well loaded. If for whatever reason we get a 2 car 158 on these services, which happens on an almost daily basis now, then the service is virtually full and standing, especially so going south from Carlisle. Throw in the large groups of 40 - 50 people that book onto our services and generally the ones I’ve mentioned then it’s standing down the vestibules all the way! Sunday’s we seem to be regularly getting a 2 car 150 on the ex Nottingham service too!

The majority of other services are booked as 2 car and generally cope with traffic levels unless we get a large group on.

On a side note, the current 1404 ‘express’ from Carlisle will be moved forward to 1340 to give a more even spread between the 1049 and 1450.

 

[Class 170101]

Sounds nice in theory, but this is an example where road transport will generally be a lot faster - a coach can nip straight up the M6 from Preston/ Lancaster, whilst a "drag" is going to mean a slow route through Blackburn and up to Hellifield.

As pointed out Transport Focus did a bit of research and people preferred slower trains and longer journeys via diversionary routes than road transport. I would add it must be quicker between Newcastle and Edinburgth via the A1 than it is with ECML drags and HSTs via Carlisle yet they still happen.

I would accept however that a diversion via the Cumbrian Coast is unlikely to find favour between Lancaster and Carlisle as an alternative to the WCML.

 

[Class 170101]

For my money the S&C needs to focus on doing what it's doing but a bit better rather than getting into the realms of grandiose schemes such as hiving it off into a special "tourist" franchise or similar. As such I would suggest three interventions which shouldn't be too difficult to introduce or cost that much additional money.

1. Fettle the timetable so that there is a clock face one train every two hours each way between Carlisle and Leeds throughout the day all year round every day of the week.
2. Extend services which currently terminate at Clitheroe to Hellifield and try to make sure that they connect with at least one service to/from the S&C.
3. I do think it's a shame that the line wasn't included as a Northern Connect route however even without that improve the product on offer in terms of rolling stock by ensuring that all services (other than perhaps at the extremes of the day) are four car 158s.

For my money those three interventions should be doable without too much extra spending on resources such as extra units or train crew (though they will certainly be needed!) but will improve the base offer of the line quite considerably from the present situation where we have a roughly two hourly service but without even gaps, you can have 2-car 158s or worse show up (the first time I did the line it was on a 2-car 150!) and outside of Summer Sundays there is little connectivity with Manchester (even then it still requires a change to get to Manchester).

I do think that there is potential behind a Jacobite style steam service over the line in the summer months perhaps running from Skipton to Carlisle with calls at Settle and Appleby on route and if I were the Local Authority/Tourist Board/Friends of the S&C I'd be sounding out West Coast Railways on whether they'd be up for it. But I would say that it's absolutely not the role of the franchised (subsidised!) TOC to be getting involved with. Neither should a heritage operator like WCRC be involved in running the bread and butter service up and down the line.

But for me those are the things that should be the focus in the near term. There's merit in the idea of linking Leeds and maybe even the East Mids with Glasgow via the S&C with a limited stop Intercity quality service as is there in linking Manchester to Carlisle via the S&C to grant access for both tourists and the locals but for me both of those are very much pie in the sky long term ambitions that will take a long time to come to fruition if ever.

I would add to your list a two hourly service between Leeds and Lancaster (maybe Preston, maybe Heysham Port) in the opposite hour to your suggested two hourly Leeds to Carlisle service.

In the short term I would look to extend the Ribblehead evening trains to operate to / from Carlisle and perhaps at certain times of the day extend the services to Clithroe before a standard hourly all day service could be introduced.

 

[Class 170101]

How far do you take that though? On obvious diversionary routes or more obscure ones? What will happen is that DfT will see that as a cost that isnt quantifiable or will see the TOC over inflating the expected cost. What will happen in reality, as it does now in a lot of cases, will be "if you want us to divert that way NR, you pay for the route learning and find us the paths"

I think compensation payments to TOCs need to be changed to discourage Rail Replacement where viable diversionary routes are available. As noted previously I don't consider via Barrow a suitable diversion for the WCML.

 

[Condor7]

That's interesting. If we pretended that Preston and Lancaster (and perhaps Oxenholme) didn't exist, would Glasgow-Manchester still be viable? Or is it ultimately relying on the cumulative effect of shorter journeys along the route rather than the end-to-end demand?

This is a similar point to one I have made in previous posts regarding the S&C.
Because over its 73 mile length the population is small many use that as a reason for saying expresses from West and South Yorkshire to Scotland would not be viable. There are however many long stretches of track in the UK that have low population but still command regular express services.
Take Lancaster to Carlisle, only slightly shorter than the S&C and similarly travels through very low population areas but no one would ever suggest not running expresses over this route, because it is not seen as a section of line in isolation to the rest of the network, but part of a much bigger picture, mainly because the infrastructure is in place for high speed running.

The S&C is still seen as almost a stand alone section on the rail network which has to stand or fall on its attraction to tourists or its service to the local population. Just look at it on the map! Imagine it as a line with proper investment for higher speed running and attractive rolling stock no one would even think for one minute of taking the long congested ECML route from Yorkshire to Glasgow.

 

[modernrail]

2 points from me.

1. Totally agree that a regular steam service Skipton to Carlisle would be ace and surely heavily used in summer. It is how the tourists really want to do this route and would be magical.

2. I would always use this route Leeds to Glasgow if there were direct trains as the alternatives are often overcrowded and with a better unit and better timetable (slightly speeded up at least) with no akward connection at Carlisle it would be a total winner. As it is all those things but me off. Last time I tried it, the whole thing was just too difficult. Threadbare seats, dirty 158, smelly, late leaving Leeds, 2 carriages at the end of a platform at Leeds with a long walk to get there, no feel of an express service, long wait at Carlisle with no real facilities at that station and freezing, train to Glasgow already rammed on arrival.

I find it deeply frustrating this can't be sorted out, at least on a trial basis. Getting the route into the journey planner as an option is absolutely key. I also wonder whether you extend the Nottingham to Leeds service to Glasgow and transfer it to TP, then you add Nottingham, Sheffield, Barnsley and Wakefield to the potential customer base, all of whom have fairly unattractive routes to Glasgow as it stands.

The oddity will always be the concentration of stops on the S&C itself which takes away from the express feel. I think that it fine so long as overall timings can be improved a bit. So long as the rest of the route is true express it is no different to Virgin stopping quite a bit on the North Wales coast.

 

[BigCj34]

I see on journey planners the quickest way to get from Glasgow to Leeds is via Lancaster and the Bentham line. The Settle and Carlisle routes show up three times on the journey planner, and take 25 minutes longer. Still a lot cheaper to take that route though.

According to this http://maps.dft.gov.uk/northern/index.html I note there is supposed to be an arrival into Lancaster arriving between 8am and 9am on the Bentham line. Even the new timetable hasn't addressed that, will that ever happen? Will be very handy for commuters.

Overall it's a good thing that the S&C and Bentham line now have a notably improved service, makes it much easier for those coming from Cumbria and North Lancashire to travel cross country to Yorkshire and further destinations given the relatively sparse network. Having used the Bentham line over the bank holiday weekend it was standing room only the whole way on Good Friday, and seemed to have a decent amount of patronage on the bank holiday Monday, so demand must have been there. Build it and they will come?

 

[DarloRich]

Which makes me suspicious that there must be some reason for why it's not already happened

I suspect Leeds station capacity is the factor. I also wonder what relations between NR and WCRC are really like. Was there not a massive falling out with the NR LNE route at some point?

 

[The Planner]

I think compensation payments to TOCs need to be changed to discourage Rail Replacement where viable diversionary routes are available. As noted previously I don't consider via Barrow a suitable diversion for the WCML.

Would need a wholesale change in the way Schedule 4 is dealt with, which would require universal agreement so unlikely to happen if the TOCs feel they would be worse off than now (and they can make some serious money from it)

 

[RLBH]

1. Manchester is a bigger urban centre than Leeds/Bradford, connecting to bigger surrounding towns so demand is generally higher.

Oddly enough, it's not. The West Yorkshire metropolitan area has roughly 2.3 million people, the Manchester metropolitan area has 2.5 million people. Metropolitan areas are probably a better comparison for catchment areas than the urban areas.

Even a reliable 2 hourly service is inadequate to get people out of their cars because if you just miss it for whatever reason you have too long to wait for the next one

Not only that, but a 2-hourly service isn't frequent enough for spur-of-the-moment trips. People will probably wait an average of half an hour for the next train, they probably won't wait an average of an hour. Unless you can offer 1tph or better, you'll get very few passengers of the 'let's go to Leeds today - when's the next train?' type.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Oddly enough, it's not. The West Yorkshire metropolitan area has roughly 2.3 million people, the Manchester metropolitan area has 2.5 million people. Metropolitan areas are probably a better comparison for catchment areas than the urban areas.

Not only that, but a 2-hourly service isn't frequent enough for spur-of-the-moment trips. People will probably wait an average of half an hour for the next train, they probably won't wait an average of an hour. Unless you can offer 1tph or better, you'll get very few passengers of the 'let's go to Leeds today - when's the next train?' type.

Agreed about turn up and go, but these are areas where bus cuts have probably bitten and people will plan their day around getting certain trains. More importantly, if you offer a decent 1tp2h fast service from Carlisle to Leeds with limited intermediate stops you've got a chance of moving people off Cross Country / TPE via York from the West Yorkshire area which must surely be a good thing; as well as providing Settle and Appleby with a decent service.