Should disused lines and preserved lines be reopened for freight use, to help provide capacity?

[RobShipway]

I think there are many lines around the country where either the tracks may still exist, but the line has not been used in many years or the track has been long since removed. Many of these lines, where closed to passengers because of the Beeching report in the 1960's, but a few lines did continue even up to recent years as freight only lines, so that the freight trains could make pickups and delivers, but also in using these lines it kept the freight trains away from the major passenger routes to allow more paths for the passenger trains.

I know one route that keeps coming up in these type of discussions is the Woodhead Line between Manchester and Sheffield. The story of the line and about campaign's to reopen it can be found here https://snowmetrics.com/site/o9lka/woodhead-line-reopening.

Others that I hear about locally is rebuilding the line between Lewes and Uckfield, the other I have heard about on occasions is rebuilding the line from Lewes to Sheffield Park, with trains then going on and through to East Grinstead. This of course would mean taking over the Bluebell Railway, which closed in 1954 and later on in the 1950's becoming the first preserved railway in the UK.

The use for freight trains on preserved lines where there is connection at either end of the line with the national network should be done with agreement with the preserved line and payment be made for use of their line, which I think would help the preserved lines especially during the Autumn/Winter periods where there is little or no passengers. Yes, possibly in the period between January - April the preserved lines would not be able to be used as they are likely doing the yearly maintenance of their lines, but with the money coming in for the lines being used through October - December from the freight companies, this would surely help pay for the cost of the maintenance?

 

[skyhigh]

So if you're going to reopen a disused line solely for freight, will any freight actually use it given the pretty enormous cost that would have to be applied for using the line?

 

[gordonthemoron]

Isn't the northern section of the GCR already used for freight?

 

[HSTEd]

There are unfortunately very few disused or preserved lines that go in directions that might actually be useful for this purpose.

And these days in engineering terms a disused line has little advantage over a new one that can be built to a more freight appropriate loading gauge - if that is our objective.

 

[The Planner]

Is a heritage line going to be up to spec to have a thousand tons or more battering it, even if there is a facility it could use?

 

[Railwaysceptic]

I don't think we should be so quick to dismiss this idea out of hand completely. The Leamside Line clearly has some potential as a way of reducing freight movements on a busy two-track section of the East Coast Main Line.

Any sensible analysis of this idea must start with current and potential freight flows, identifying present and future capacity problems, and then looking for possible solutions including the re-routing of freight trains. Any such re-routing should address not only the capacity issue but also the need to keep freight trains moving continuously instead of being shunted into loops which adds enormously to journey times. The second stage would be seeing what alternative routes might be both relevant and available. I doubt there will be many and most are likely to be underused existing railway lines. However if a long closed route fits the bill, the commercial case for re-opening should be examined.

 

[RobShipway]

I don't think we should be so quick to dismiss this idea out of hand completely. The Leamside Line clearly has some potential as a way of reducing freight movements on a busy two-track section of the East Coast Main Line.

Any sensible analysis of this idea must start with current and potential freight flows, identifying present and future capacity problems, and then looking for possible solutions including the re-routing of freight trains. Any such re-routing should address not only the capacity issue but also the need to keep freight trains moving continuously instead of being shunted into loops which adds enormously to journey times. The second stage would be seeing what alternative routes might be both relevant and available. I doubt there will be many and most are likely to be underused existing railway lines. However if a long closed route fits the bill, the commercial case for re-opening should be examined.

That is my point exactly.

 

[squizzler]

There is apparently a chronic shortage of lorry drivers due to high average age of the workforce and recent return of many central Europeans to their countries of birth. Abandoned railways or Heritage lines may be worth considering to provide more convenient railheads for freight switching from road.

Newly created parcels operators such as Orion using multiple units like the 769 may be a game changer. Their trains can use the heritage line platforms that already exist. Because heritage lines tend to operate later in the day than normal railways, there does not seem to be a conflict between when businesses want to receive their early morning deliveries and when the heritage railway needs its platforms for timetabled trains.

 

[zwk500]

I know one route that keeps coming up in these type of discussions is the Woodhead Line between Manchester and Sheffield. The story of the line and about campaign's to reopen it can be found here https://snowmetrics.com/site/o9lka/woodhead-line-reopening.

The issue with a lot of these proposals is that the reopened section is usually points B and C on a journey, and there's limited capacity for parts A to B and C to D

Others that I hear about locally is rebuilding the line between Lewes and Uckfield, the other I have heard about on occasions is rebuilding the line from Lewes to Sheffield Park, with trains then going on and through to East Grinstead. This of course would mean taking over the Bluebell Railway, which closed in 1954 and later on in the 1950's becoming the first preserved railway in the UK.

Nobody seriously talks about reopening the line via Chailey. What does occasionally get mentioned is running freight over the route via Ardingly, if it ever reopens. However any freight via Oxted (via Ardingly, Chailey or Uckfield) will run into issues at Oxted Viaduct.

The use for freight trains on preserved lines where there is connection at either end of the line with the national network should be done with agreement with the preserved line and payment be made for use of their line, which I think would help the preserved lines especially during the Autumn/Winter periods where there is little or no passengers. Yes, possibly in the period between January - April the preserved lines would not be able to be used as they are likely doing the yearly maintenance of their lines, but with the money coming in for the lines being used through October - December from the freight companies, this would surely help pay for the cost of the maintenance?

Bear in mind that keeping a line open for a weekly train may well cost more than closing it completely. Also, lots of these railways need several months to relay tracks because of the use of volunteer labour. With the preserved lines as single tracks, that means that keeping the line available to freight would require hiring in resource to do Pway work the heritage railway might otherwise have done themselves.

I don't think we should be so quick to dismiss this idea out of hand completely. The Leamside Line clearly has some potential as a way of reducing freight movements on a busy two-track section of the East Coast Main Line.

There are some viable options. However we shouldn't limit ourselves to what was there before. Traffic has changed, and if a new line will be more effective for freight we should go with that option.

Any sensible analysis of this idea must start with current and potential freight flows, identifying present and future capacity problems, and then looking for possible solutions including the re-routing of freight trains. Any such re-routing should address not only the capacity issue but also the need to keep freight trains moving continuously instead of being shunted into loops which adds enormously to journey times. The second stage would be seeing what alternative routes might be both relevant and available. I doubt there will be many and most are likely to be underused existing railway lines. However if a long closed route fits the bill, the commercial case for re-opening should be examined.

All of this is done currently.

 

[John Webb]

I know one route that keeps coming up in these type of discussions is the Woodhead Line between Manchester and Sheffield. The story of the line and about campaign's to reopen it can be found here https://snowmetrics.com/site/o9lka/woodhead-line-reopening.

There have been numerous campaigns to reopen this line. As explained in a number of threads on this forum it isn't going to happen. The goods traffic isn't there to use a reopened line and it serves a very useful purpose in conveying considerable quantities of electricity from one side of the Pennines to the other.

Others that I hear about locally is rebuilding the line between Lewes and Uckfield, the other I have heard about on occasions is rebuilding the line from Lewes to Sheffield Park, with trains then going on and through to East Grinstead. This of course would mean taking over the Bluebell Railway, which closed in 1954 and later on in the 1950's becoming the first preserved railway in the UK.

Minor correction - the Bluebell was the first standard gauge preserved railway, although the Middleton Railway in Leeds disputes that! The latter was also used for moving freight until the small single wagon-load traffic passed away. The first preserved UK railway was the narrow-gauge Talyllyn Railway from 1950.

The use for freight trains on preserved lines where there is connection at either end of the line with the national network should be done with agreement with the preserved line and payment be made for use of their line, which I think would help the preserved lines especially during the Autumn/Winter periods where there is little or no passengers. Yes, possibly in the period between January - April the preserved lines would not be able to be used as they are likely doing the yearly maintenance of their lines, but with the money coming in for the lines being used through October - December from the freight companies, this would surely help pay for the cost of the maintenance?

Doesn't have to be an end to end connection - the Ribble Steam Railway at Preston Docks carries bitumen tanks from the main line to a facility in the docks. The Mid-Norfolk Railway sometimes accommodates trains from the local TOC in sidings on a commercial basis, and various other non-through lines can provide maintenance and testing facilities - the Great Central is particularly noted for such work.
Goods traffic, where it exists, tends to be year-round these days and not seasonal - so as has already been pointed out there would be problems in keeping freight moving during the 'Operating Season' of a preserved railway.

 

[RobShipway]

The issue with a lot of these proposals is that the reopened section is usually points B and C on a journey, and there's limited capacity for parts A to B and C to D

Nobody seriously talks about reopening the line via Chailey. What does occasionally get mentioned is running freight over the route via Ardingly, if it ever reopens. However any freight via Oxted (via Ardingly, Chailey or Uckfield) will run into issues at Oxted Viaduct.

Bear in mind that keeping a line open for a weekly train may well cost more than closing it completely. Also, lots of these railways need several months to relay tracks because of the use of volunteer labour. With the preserved lines as single tracks, that means that keeping the line available to freight would require hiring in resource to do Pway work the heritage railway might otherwise have done themselves.

There are some viable options. However we shouldn't limit ourselves to what was there before. Traffic has changed, and if a new line will be more effective for freight we should go with that option.

All of this is done currently.

There have been numerous campaigns to reopen this line. As explained in a number of threads on this forum it isn't going to happen. The goods traffic isn't there to use a reopened line and it serves a very useful purpose in conveying considerable quantities of electricity from one side of the Pennines to the other.

Minor correction - the Bluebell was the first standard gauge preserved railway, although the Middleton Railway in Leeds disputes that! The latter was also used for moving freight until the small single wagon-load traffic passed away. The first preserved UK railway was the narrow-gauge Talyllyn Railway from 1950.

Doesn't have to be an end to end connection - the Ribble Steam Railway at Preston Docks carries bitumen tanks from the main line to a facility in the docks. The Mid-Norfolk Railway sometimes accommodates trains from the local TOC in sidings on a commercial basis, and various other non-through lines can provide maintenance and testing facilities - the Great Central is particularly noted for such work.
Goods traffic, where it exists, tends to be year-round these days and not seasonal - so as has already been pointed out there would be problems in keeping freight moving during the 'Operating Season' of a preserved railway.

All valid points. I did mention in my opening thread that periods between January - April each year any preserved lines maybe closed due to their yearly maintenance work.

I stand corrected on the first preserved railway. But yes, the Bluebell Railway is believed to be the first standard gauge preserved railway.

 

[simonw]

Several people have pointed out some of the limitations to your proposal.

There are other railways that have in the past carried freight - WSR with stone trains for sea defnce, Bodmin at one time had provided rail access to a lighting company.

There may be one or two others, and there may be some that could provide a service.

However, rail freight is pretty limited in scope in GB for many good reasons around flexibility and profitability; and that which does exist is not really going to benefit from adding a few extra miles at the end of the journey if transhipment is still needed.

Similarly with traffic starting on a preserved line, it's difficult to think of any that would be the starting point of much traffic.

Overall, I'd say in most cases, a solution looking for a problem.

 

[JamesT]

There is apparently a chronic shortage of lorry drivers due to high average age of the workforce and recent return of many central Europeans to their countries of birth. Abandoned railways or Heritage lines may be worth considering to provide more convenient railheads for freight switching from road.

Newly created parcels operators such as Orion using multiple units like the 769 may be a game changer. Their trains can use the heritage line platforms that already exist. Because heritage lines tend to operate later in the day than normal railways, there does not seem to be a conflict between when businesses want to receive their early morning deliveries and when the heritage railway needs its platforms for timetabled trains.

Isn't a shortage of lorry drivers going to be much more easily fixed by training up new lorry drivers rather than trying to rebuild old railways? If the current pay and conditions are unattractive to UK nationals, that suggests they need to be improved now the employers can no longer rely on a relatively cheap source of labour.

 

[Irascible]

Isn't a shortage of lorry drivers going to be much more easily fixed by training up new lorry drivers rather than trying to rebuild old railways? If the current pay and conditions are unattractive to UK nationals, that suggests they need to be improved now the employers can no longer rely on a relatively cheap source of labour.

Easier, but if you pay drivers more & give them better T&C other solutions start looking more attractive too. I'm not saying reopening railways suddenly becomes an economic alternative because I don't know, but it's probably a time to be at least considering doing things differently.

 

[A0wen]

Very few if any of the Heritage Railways offer anything which could be vaguely construed as useful for freight movements. Those that do, already handle it, e.g. GCR (N) to British Gypsum or Ribble Steam Railway to Preston Docks and indeed are part of the reason those lines survived into the Heritage sector.

 

[Peter C]

Railtrack approached at least the GWSR in 1999 - they were interested in potentially using the route for diversionary services, so maybe not the exact same thing as the idea suggested in this thread, but close.
From: https://www.gwsr.com/enthusiasts/History/Railway_Timeline.html

1999 - Railtrack express an interest in using the route as a possible diversionary route because of increasing congestion on the former Midland line between Gloucester and Birmingham.

There was a thread about this in 2019: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...-use-the-gwsr-as-a-diversionary-route.178769/
Needless to say, at least in this case, it didn't go anywhere - but maybe some of the reason behind that was the lack of a mainline connection on the GWSR?

-Peter

 

[RT4038]

Easier, but if you pay drivers more & give them better T&C other solutions start looking more attractive too. I'm not saying reopening railways suddenly becomes an economic alternative because I don't know, but it's probably a time to be at least considering doing things differently.

Except that paying (road freight) drivers more & giving them better T&Cs will increase the costs of moving goods (and therefore the retail costs of the goods themselves) which would likely be inflationary on the other solutions as well?

 

[A0wen]

Railtrack approached at least the GWSR in 1999 - they were interested in potentially using the route for diversionary services, so maybe not the exact same thing as the idea suggested in this thread, but close.
From: https://www.gwsr.com/enthusiasts/History/Railway_Timeline.html


There was a thread about this in 2019: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...-use-the-gwsr-as-a-diversionary-route.178769/
Needless to say, at least in this case, it didn't go anywhere - but maybe some of the reason behind that was the lack of a mainline connection on the GWSR?

-Peter

The lack of an NR connection was probably only one factor - finding a cost effective way to reinstate through Cheltenham along with the costs of reinstatement from Broadway to at the least Honeybourne and more likely Stratford would have probably killed it as a viable suggestion. Add in it's a long way round to get to Birmingham on a line which isn't really optimised for high speed running.

A bit of a crayonista idea that one.

 

[RobShipway]

Railtrack approached at least the GWSR in 1999 - they were interested in potentially using the route for diversionary services, so maybe not the exact same thing as the idea suggested in this thread, but close.
From: https://www.gwsr.com/enthusiasts/History/Railway_Timeline.html


There was a thread about this in 2019: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...-use-the-gwsr-as-a-diversionary-route.178769/
Needless to say, at least in this case, it didn't go anywhere - but maybe some of the reason behind that was the lack of a mainline connection on the GWSR?

-Peter

Many of the preserved lines that in the past did not have mainline connection, in the last 10 - 15 years have got mainline connection as it makes it easier for doing things like engineering works on the preserved line, but also makes it easier for visiting locos as well.

One of the lines not mentioned is the SVR. That has in the past been used for testing the likes of the class 175/180 units amongst other units. But from memory there is not much in the way of factory units or companies that would be wanting to rail services to a large degree along the line of the SVR. Another preserved line that came to mind would be the Watercress Line. There is I believe a fair bit of foods grown in the area that is taken away by lorries around the country. Depending on the location of the companies and the distribution centre or centres that the food may need to go through, that could be taken possibly by train with using the mainline connection at Alton.

 

[Peter C]

Many of the preserved lines that in the past did not have mainline connection, in the last 10 - 15 years have got mainline connection as it makes it easier for doing things like engineering works on the preserved line, but also makes it easier for visiting locos as well.

One of the lines not mentioned is the SVR. That has in the past been used for testing the likes of the class 175/180 units amongst other units. But from memory there is not much in the way of factory units or companies that would be wanting to rail services to a large degree along the line of the SVR. Another preserved line that came to mind would be the Watercress Line. There is I believe a fair bit of foods grown in the area that is taken away by lorries around the country. Depending on the location of the companies and the distribution centre or centres that the food may need to go through, that could be taken possibly by train with using the mainline connection at Alton.

I think your idea is quite an interesting proposal - it would certainly be cool to see freight workings over preserved lines. But there are going to be several people on here who know more about the subject than I do

The lack of an NR connection was probably only one factor - finding a cost effective way to reinstate through Cheltenham along with the costs of reinstatement from Broadway to at the least Honeybourne and more likely Stratford would have probably killed it as a viable suggestion. Add in it's a long way round to get to Birmingham on a line which isn't really optimised for high speed running.

A bit of a crayonista idea that one.

That's kind of what I thought. Now the GWSR have extended to Broadway, that would be a reduction in costs for a group, say Network Rail, who wanted to do it, but as you say - actually connecting to the mainline (at both ends, as would be needed to actually increase capacity and not just introduce a new freight route) would still be prohibitively expensive for the benefits it would give.

-Peter

 

[A0wen]

Except that paying (road freight) drivers more & giving them better T&Cs will increase the costs of moving goods (and therefore the retail costs of the goods themselves) which would likely be inflationary on the other solutions as well?

It's not quite that simple - shifting freight from road to rail for example could be more inflationary if the costs of rail transport are higher than road - even allowing for the increased salary costs for HGV drivers.

 

[zwk500]

One question that hasn't been answered is do the proposers envisage Heritage railways going through the legal process to raise their speed limits above 25mph? And if so, who will fund the track being relaid for the heavier traffic at 40-60mph?

Many of the preserved lines that in the past did not have mainline connection, in the last 10 - 15 years have got mainline connection as it makes it easier for doing things like engineering works on the preserved line, but also makes it easier for visiting locos as well.

Many of these mainline connections are set up for occassional use, often with awkward access from the mainline network such as ground frame shunts or wrong-road working. These are not well suited to freight, but could be upgraded - for a price.

One of the lines not mentioned is the SVR. That has in the past been used for testing the likes of the class 175/180 units amongst other units. But from memory there is not much in the way of factory units or companies that would be wanting to rail services to a large degree along the line of the SVR.

Hasn't the SVR carried pipes for Severn Trent water on a commercial basis?

Another preserved line that came to mind would be the Watercress Line. There is I believe a fair bit of foods grown in the area that is taken away by lorries around the country. Depending on the location of the companies and the distribution centre or centres that the food may need to go through, that could be taken possibly by train with using the mainline connection at Alton.

Farms will not be sending food out by wagonload traffic. And getting trains in and out of Alton is a pain in the proverbial due to the single line and only 1 platform having the connection. And you've got to come through either Woking of Guidlford to get there.

 

[A0wen]

There is I believe a fair bit of foods grown in the area that is taken away by lorries around the country. Depending on the location of the companies and the distribution centre or centres that the food may need to go through, that could be taken possibly by train with using the mainline connection at Alton.

There is, apart from Watercress, relatively little grown in that part of the UK. And Watercress certainly isn't going to be viable to ship by rail.

The two main areas for agriculture in the UK are East Anglia - crops such as wheat or sugar beet and the South West for cattle. Not saying there aren't other areas, but those are the two largest.

Agriculture in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[simonw]

Many of the preserved lines that in the past did not have mainline connection, in the last 10 - 15 years have got mainline connection as it makes it easier for doing things like engineering works on the preserved line, but also makes it easier for visiting locos as well.

One of the lines not mentioned is the SVR. That has in the past been used for testing the likes of the class 175/180 units amongst other units. But from memory there is not much in the way of factory units or companies that would be wanting to rail services to a large degree along the line of the SVR. Another preserved line that came to mind would be the Watercress Line. There is I believe a fair bit of foods grown in the area that is taken away by lorries around the country. Depending on the location of the companies and the distribution centre or centres that the food may need to go through, that could be taken possibly by train with using the mainline connection at Alton.

There are good reasons why freight such as watercress is no longer carried by rail. These include flexibility of road and the cost of rail. I don't see how your proposal addresses these.

 

[RobShipway]

One question that hasn't been answered is do the proposers envisage Heritage railways going through the legal process to raise their speed limits above 25mph? And if so, who will fund the track being relaid for the heavier traffic at 40-60mph?

That part I had not thought about to be honest. But surely that would be part of the process say for example of GB Railfreight to be working out with Network Rail and the Preserved railway? At the end of the day, it would be the company having there goods being shipped that would be paying I have no doubt over a several years

Hasn't the SVR carried pipes for Severn Trent water on a commercial basis?

I thought they had as well, but could not details on it. I seem to remember SVR trains being used as part of flooding in the area, whether that was to do with the pipes for Sever Trent?

Farms will not be sending food out by wagonload traffic. And getting trains in and out of Alton is a pain in the proverbial due to the single line and only 1 platform having the connection. And you've got to come through either Woking of Guidlford to get there.

I don't think there is any of the preserved lines where it is easy to come off the preserved line on to the Mainline, accept perhaps the SVR. I have not visited the likes of the North Yorkshire Moors Railway in a few years. I know that they did have Summer day trips to Scarborough last time I was up there.

 

[Irascible]

Except that paying (road freight) drivers more & giving them better T&Cs will increase the costs of moving goods (and therefore the retail costs of the goods themselves) which would likely be inflationary on the other solutions as well?

I fear that's somewhat inevitable whatever the solution, unless it involves forcing people to work in specific jobs for a given salary. The govt could cut fuel tax to cover it, I suppose. <deadpan>

OTOH, if the costs of delivery for an entire shipment go up by £10 an hour ( anyone think lorry drivers are going to get an extra £10 an hour? me either ) for the parts it's being moved, spread that across retail prices for the entire load and it's suddenly not quite as big a deal unless the whole shipment is already super marginal.

 

[zwk500]

That part I had not thought about to be honest. But surely that would be part of the process say for example of GB Railfreight to be working out with Network Rail and the Preserved railway? At the end of the day, it would be the company having there goods being shipped that would be paying I have no doubt over a several years

And which companies are going to have sufficient sustained traffic to be able to spread the costs, and will accept such costs rather than switching to a cheaper means of transport?

I don't think there is any of the preserved lines where it is easy to come off the preserved line on to the Mainline, accept perhaps the SVR. I have not visited the likes of the North Yorkshire Moors Railway in a few years. I know that they did have Summer day trips to Scarborough last time I was up there.

SVR is OK although it does then force you up Old Hill bank and through the tunnels near Rowley Regis. For freight to avoid Moor Street and New Street requires routing across Galton Jn and then via Bescot. NYMR connects to the Whitby line, the only way you can get to Scarborough from the NYMR is by Bus. The NYMR in particular is a pain because of the token sections.

 

[RobShipway]

And which companies are going to have sufficient sustained traffic to be able to spread the costs, and will accept such costs rather than switching to a cheaper means of transport?

Fair point. It would need to be a company like Amazon, Cadburys, DPD, UPS or Mars that was either nearby or on a preserved line where there would otherwise be a lot of lorries leaving the plant or where access to that plant would be via the preserved line.

Not sure if it would go through a preserved line, but you have got UPS that has flights going into East Midlands, but their main ground hub is based in Tamworth. How many lorries by day does it take to ship the items coming in on the UPS planes to get them down to the main distribution centre at Tamworth? How many lorries then from the main distribution centre to the local distribution centres?

If as others have said there is less people coming forward to take up positions as drivers for the likes of DPD, Amazon and UPS, then you have to think, how else would they get their items between sites?

 

[zwk500]

Fair point. It would need to be a company like Amazon, Cadburys, DPD, UPS or Mars that was either nearby or on a preserved line where there would otherwise be a lot of lorries leaving the plant or where access to that plant would be via the preserved line.

Do any of those companies have facilities in such a location? Or are likely to build any?

Not sure if it would go through a preserved line, but you have got UPS that has flights going into East Midlands, but their main ground hub is based in Tamworth. How many lorries by day does it take to ship the items coming in on the UPS planes to get them down to the main distribution centre at Tamworth? How many lorries then from the main distribution centre to the local distribution centres?

East Mids to Tamworth is a very easy journey on the national network. However, getting from Tamworth station to the warehouse requires a lorry anyway. If you're a goods handling company, it's always going to be cheaper to ask the lorry driver to do the full leg when the journey is so short. Train is most competitive as distance increase.

If as others have said there is less people coming forward to take up positions as drivers for the likes of DPD, Amazon and UPS, then you have to think, how else would they get their items between sites?

I suspect offering drivers a few quid more an hour will be cheaper overall to the company that starting a rail freight section. We're in middle of 2 once-in-a-generation economic shocks (Brexit and Covid). Wait until 2023 before drawing any long-term conclusions about the viability of road vs rail.

 

[A0wen]

I suspect offering drivers a few quid more an hour will be cheaper overall to the company that starting a rail freight section. We're in middle of 2 once-in-a-generation economic shocks (Brexit and Covid). Wait until 2023 before drawing any long-term conclusions about the viability of road vs rail.

The bigger issue is having the right infrastructure.

Rail is very good at taking large, heavy, bulky loads between 2 points - be it aggregates or container loads. It's not so good or cost effective at doing small, multiple drops - especially when such trains have to be pathed among regular passenger services. I know people keep banging on about ROG's "Orion", but lets see whether that's still around in 3 years time - I'm betting not.

I suspect at the end of the pandemic and post Brexit the fundamental economics of shipping goods won't have significantly changed and rail won't be the answer for the many cases people keep peddling on here.