Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[Watershed]

Added to which, there will be so much political and economic pressure to reopen, that the government is gonig to have to come up with a really good reason for delaying things any further.

The government's "really good reason" will continue to be "because we said so".

There really is no point trying to reason with any of this.

 

[LAX54]

Michael Gove is quoted on Sky News as saying:-



I wouldn't read too much too much into any statement such as "..at least ease the restrictions...".

To be quite honest, if the government were to say today "..we are definitely going to abolish all restrictions on 19th July..", I wouldn't believe them.

Until all restrictions are actually abolished, there will always be doubts about what is going to happen.

But Michael Gove's statement above means that it would take the emergence of a really infectious new variant, or a really significant uptick in cases, hospitalisations and deaths, to stop the easings on July 19th from going ahead.

The government won't be able to claim that it doesn't have enough data, and by the middle of July we will be able to compare the scary SAGE and Imperious College modelling with reality.

Added to which, there will be so much political and economic pressure to reopen, that the government is gonig to have to come up with a really good reason for delaying things any further.

Must have been on the BBC News on either Breakfast or BBC2 after 9 news, as I am sure they highlighted what he said

 

[kristiang85]

He makes some quite reasonable points but you also have to apply some critical thinking to what he says regardless of whether what he says is what you want to hear.

For a start he says 'For reference the ONS estimate daily infections in England peaked in December 2020 at 107k per day. That's in winter and with virtually no-one vaccinated.'

No doubt that is true but in December the whole of the country had restrictions and a significant part of it had severe restrictions not much short of a lockdown so whether it was winter or not you can't compare infections in December to a situation where all legal restrictions are removed.

Did it really though? I was in Tier 2 myself for much of December (Hampshire and London), and given that the tier system was seen as bit of a failure in the end, especially as people just moved about, I'm not sure how effective it was at stopping spread (hence the general lockdown in January). Certainly I remember going out a fair bit in December and things felt pretty loose. Also if you look at many Western countries, they had similar standardised peaks despite different approaches to restrictions, so the jury is still out on how effective the lockdown measures were. Not to mention that no established respiratory viral disease has ever peaked in this way in the summer in Europe in recorded history - it just doesn't happen. And finally, looking at the US now - they've unlocked for two months in many states, and these places have not seen such a resurgence, despite lower vaccination rates. Although none of this is perfect as there are always caveats, if you put all this together, even a layman can see that the 100,000 cases per day by next Monday is a simply ridiculous assertion by the advisors.

I will send you a video of myself eating a hat if this happens though!

Also you need to consider that does this delay make any difference whatsoever to viral spread? Having spent the last couple of weekends in London and Manchester, life looked pretty much normal on the face of it. Streets and outside bars packed, transport packed, and also lately various private events I've been to have had way more than 6 people indoors (and some hosted by previously cautious people). General social distancing is out of the window. In terms of viral spread, even if it was big risk now, I doubt things would change much with the full unlocking. However, it does disproportionately affect the businesses that are forced to have capacity limits - pubs aren't viable when they can only have half the customers but need to employ double the staff to serve them. Weddings aren't really viable even with the cap lifted, as many venues can't accomodate numbers with social distancing. If one wedding is cancelled, that's £20k out of the supply chain - caterers, breweries, transportation, venues, photographers, etc.

When you weigh up the epidemiological benefit of this four weeks versus the harms to businesses and many peoples' mental health, it is not worth it.

The British Grand Prix at Silverstone takes place a day before the new opening date. The BRDC who organises the event are in talks with the government to make it a test event. There could be up to 150,000 if it's opened up to capacity with up to 250,000 over the three days.
Talks are ongoing but hopefully there will be a large crowd there.

As far as I know there have been very little effect from the events that have opened up so far.

The cynic in me does wonder if Boris will go for the symbolic full crowd to be beamed around the world the day before his new 'freedom day', much like the Indy 500. He will want to say "Look, Britain is open for business!", even if nobody actually can come here (but he's always been one for image over detail).

What will be fun to see is if England do well in the football - The final is on Sunday July 11th with the final at Wembley. If England were to win then good luck to anyone who would try and enforce any restrictions!

This is the tragic thing. A summer with good weather and tournament football should be an absolute boon for pubs, and would probably have helped wipe out their debts incurred over the winter - but the government has now denied them this. Given how difficult it is to get bookings to see England games in many places (I saw one pub charging £20 a ticket), people will just sit at home and watch on Sky with a few supermarket cans instead (you can see why Sky was keen to push the continued restrictions).

 

[NorthKent1989]

I think we should all remember that any death mentioned on this Covid-19 thread is just not a statistic to the family who have lost a loved one.

Let us not forsake humanitarian feelings, please.

How about those who’ve had life saving cancer treatments delayed? What about the thousands who’ve committed suicide because their mental health has turned for the worse? Or families struggling to feed their children.

We’re expected to show empathy to Covid victims only, which of course I do, but not once has anyone whose supported restrictions ever given a single thought or care to those people I mentioned.

I really don’t blame anyone who ignores the extension and takes normality back.

 

[duncanp]

The government's "really good reason" will continue to be "because we said so".

There really is no point trying to reason with any of this.

Yes, until all lockdown restrictions are actually eased, no-one is going to believe anything the government says.

And of course today you have the inevitable "SAGE scientist" warning that there "could" be a return to "hundreds of deaths per day" despite the delay in easing the lockdown.

In some senses the scientist is correct, but as I have said before it is rather like saying you "could" win the jackpot if you buy a lottery ticket.

There is enough evidence now to show that the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant in preventing hospitalisation, serious illness and death.

So the vaccines have reduced the probability of "hundreds of deaths per day" from a given number of cases, in the same way as the probability of winning the lottery jackpot was reduced when they increased the number of balls in the main draw.

And in any case, it is the actual data that matters - not what some silly SAGE scientist says.

If, by 12th July, there are not "hundreds" of deaths per day, then Professor Graham Medley will have egg on his face.

Britain could "easily" return to seeing hundreds of Covid deaths a day despite the lockdown lifting delay, a Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) member has warned.

Boris Johnson confirmed on Monday night that the freedom day planned for June 21 has been pushed back to July 19 due to the Indian variant, which is being called the Delta mutation.

Professor Graham Medley, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a Sage member advising the Government, said: "Although the numbers of deaths are low at the moment, everyone expects that they will rise. The question is really as to what level they will rise".

Asked if we could return to seeing hundreds of deaths a day, he said: "Oh easily. I think we still might at some point."

While Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove has said something "unprecedented and remarkable" would have to happen to see the four-week delay extended, Labour's shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth has laid the blame at the door of the Government for giving "red carpet treatment" to the Indian variant by not shutting borders sooner.

 

[102 fan]

Yes, until all lockdown restrictions are actually eased, no-one is going to believe anything the government says.

And of course today you have the inevitable "SAGE scientist" warning that there "could" be a return to "hundreds of deaths per day" despite the delay in easing the lockdown.

In some senses the scientist is correct, but as I have said before it is rather like saying you "could" win the jackpot if you buy a lottery ticket.

There is enough evidence now to show that the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant in preventing hospitalisation, serious illness and death.

So the vaccines have reduced the probability of "hundreds of deaths per day" from a given number of cases, in the same way as the probability of winning the lottery jackpot was reduced when they increased the number of balls in the main draw.

And in any case, it is the actual data that matters - not what some silly SAGE scientist says.

If, by 12th July, there are not "hundreds" of deaths per day, then Professor Graham Medley will have egg on his face.

As soon as any scientist or politician mention 'could', 'may' or 'possibly' I ignore the rest of what they say.

 

[RuralRambler]

How about those who’ve had life saving cancer treatments delayed? What about the thousands who’ve committed suicide because their mental health has turned for the worse? Or families struggling to feed their children.

We’re expected to show empathy to Covid victims only, which of course I do, but not once has anyone whose supported restrictions ever given a single thought or care to those people I mentioned.

I really don’t blame anyone who ignores the extension and takes normality back.

I fully agree with that.

My son has really suffered - he's in his first year at one of the Unis that have handled Covid badly. He's never had mental health problems in the past, but is now a shadow of his former self. It's not the learning/teaching that's the problem (though he's had no face to face teaching at all as none of his lecturers are even on campus for over a year!). It's the Uni support staff - constant emails telling them what they can't do, heavy handed campus security staff throwing their weight around, etc. Him and his flat mates are now almost scared of their own shadows and are spending time in their rooms when they could be out doing other things because of fear of getting fined/punished for some minor transgression. Some of the campus security staff have even been hiding behind pillars in communal areas and jumping out to "apprehend" students who are going in/out through the wrong door or not adhering to one way systems. They've also been putting parking penalty notices on student cars who've parked in the empty staff car parks. It's like there's a war against students. He's just found out he's "passed" his first year with very good results, but it's 50:50 whether he'll go back in September as he just can't face it again as the entire atmosphere/environment is toxic anti-student.

My OH has also suffered badly due to cancer. 3 years ago, had successful chemo treatment, everything went as planned, easy access for support, advice, etc when there were side effects, all appointments planned and executed well. At the start of 2020 it came back and chemo started again in March. Then abruptly halted with a curt phone call. Then absolute radio silence for 3 months. Called the dept many times to ask for progress, dates for restart of chemo, etc - mostly nothing but an answerphone, but occasionally got to speak to a receptionist/administrator who promised a phone back. No phone backs ever made. We even went to the oncology dept in person, on a normal "work day" to find it closed with the shutters down. Eventually, we got an appointment with consultant in July, but since then it's been one delay after another. Even routine blood tests are a pain to organise as the GP surgery now refuse to do them, and the oncology dept have moved to a different hospital across the county border. We're at the mercy of "roving" plebotomists who go around to different medical centres to take blood samples - the staff are very unreliable and half the time we've had them cancelled on the morning of the test, with re-arranged appointments up to a month later. Then other tests have been a nightmare too, such as MRI scans, x-rays, etc - nothing is easy anymore and it's a constant battle to get appointments for tests, which are then often cancelled last minute and you're back in the long queue for a new appointment. Anyway, finally started the chemo again in February this year (a delay of 11 months to get started again). The chemo has been a nightmare - again, constant cancellations, no one to contact re side effects - it's been stop-start all the way this time, no consistency, not a single month when the full chemo treatment has been given. Even the consultant fails to call on the pre-arranged telephone review consultations and then it's another month to schedule another call.

So yes, it really is time that everything else was brought back to normal. And yes, I do appreciate that there'll be some unfortunates who carry on catching covid, some suffering long covid and some sadly dying, but I think at the moment, far more people are being harmed by the covid restrictions than are being saved.

 

[VauxhallandI]

How about those who’ve had life saving cancer treatments delayed? What about the thousands who’ve committed suicide because their mental health has turned for the worse? Or families struggling to feed their children.

We’re expected to show empathy to Covid victims only, which of course I do, but not once has anyone whose supported restrictions ever given a single thought or care to those people I mentioned.

I really don’t blame anyone who ignores the extension and takes normality back.

They must be of a smaller virtue value

 

[Class 33]

Yes, I seen the headlines on some of the online media today about "Hundreds of daily Covid deaths likely even after delay, SAGE expert warns". When I see headlines like this now, I don't even click in to read them anymore. Hundreds of daily covid deaths likely!!!! What absolute nonsense!!! And shame on the media for continuing to publish nonsense like this from these cretins. There is no way we're even going to get to hundreds of Covid deaths a day ever again! Deaths are continuing to remain stable. They reached an average of just 6 per day a few weeks ago, rising to just 9 per day at the moment. This is absolutely nothing to be concerned about. A rise from an average of 6 deaths a day to an average of 9 deaths is a day is not atall in the same league as say an average of 600 deaths to an average of 900 deaths a day or even a rise from an average of 60 deaths to a day to a rise of an average of 90 deaths per day.

Some other SAGE scientists(or whoever) also saying we'll reach 100,000 cases a day by July. What absolute nonsense!!! This will not happen!!! The growth in cases has slowed over the last week or so, and will imminently level off.

 

[kristiang85]

As soon as any scientist or politician mention 'could', 'may' or 'possibly' I ignore the rest of what they say.

Indeed. The wording in SAGE's report was "the scale of that resurgence is highly uncertain and ranges from considerably smaller than January 2021 to considerably higher."

Basically, they are saying they don't know what will happen. I think it's unacceptable to put any legal infringements on a population's liberties based on such a lack of certainty, especially with anecdotal evidence from elsewhere.

 

[nlogax]

If, by 12th July, there are not "hundreds" of deaths per day, then Professor Graham Medley will have egg on his face.

We are pretty much at the point where reality and theory collide. I've seen an Imperial College paper this morning which makes some pretty lofty (ie surpassing early this year) estimates of cases from mid July onwards. Colour me unconvinced, but whatever happens.. time to end this and live with it.

 

[duncanp]

Pleased to report that my friend whose 60th birthday is on 23rd June has decided to go ahead with the party at his house.

We are going to decide for ourselves what is and isn't safe, and act accordingly.

I will test myself before I go to the party, and in the days afterwards. In the event that I test positive before the party, I won't go, and if I test positive afterwards, I will let everyone who was there know.

Up yours locktivists, SAGE scientists and Boris Johnson

You are not going to control our lives any more.

I have got plenty of suggestions as to what you can do with your stupid COVID rules and restrictions.

 

[kristiang85]

Pleased to report that my friend whose 60th birthday is on 23rd June has decided to go ahead with the party at his house.

We are going to decide for ourselves what is and isn't safe, and act accordingly.

I will test myself before I go to the party, and in the days afterwards. In the event that I test positive before the party, I won't go, and if I test positive afterwards, I will let everyone who was there know.

This sounds astoundingly like common sense. I thought, given all the regulations on our lives, that was extinct now?

 

[Cdd89]

We know that the Government have allowed in a variant which is somewhat resistant to existing vaccines

What exactly is meant by “allowed in”?

 

[LAX54]

What exactly is meant by “allowed in”?

People keep on about the flights from India, overlooking all the other routes it could, and probably did to get here, as will no doubt any other version that pops up !
Unless you heat seal the UK from everyone, and from everywhere, then a virus, any virus will find its way in

 

[kristiang85]

People keep on about the flights from India, overlooking all the other routes it could, and probably did to get here, as will no doubt any other version that pops up !
Unless you heat seal the UK from everyone, and from everywhere, then a virus, any virus will find its way in

And it develops here anyway - see the Kent variant.

Also note that the likes of Australia have the Indian variant, despite the Fort Knox nature of its borders.

 

[NSEFAN]

And it develops here anyway - see the Kent variant.

Also note that the likes of Australia have the Indian variant, despite the Fort Knox nature of its borders.

In any case, it seems to have been a moot point that we now have the Indian variant. Looking at the graphs, cases began rising exponentially nearly a month ago. In previous surges, the number of deaths began to rise 2 weeks following this, and yet the number of deaths is still near-zero with no sign of a similar exponential trend as yet. This seems to me like vaccinations are making a big difference already. The virus might spread but it doesn't actually kill that many people any more.

At the current rate of vaccinations, after 4 weeks we will have nearly all adults with at least one covid vaccination dose. It does appear that the government are holding off lockdown not because of the number of deaths but because they want to get as many people vaccinated as they can before unlocking. Some might say this is holding the people to ransom, others might say that it's the responsible thing to do. That's all a matter of opinion.

 

[initiation]

And it develops here anyway - see the Kent variant.

Also note that the likes of Australia have the Indian variant, despite the Fort Knox nature of its borders.

While I agree it is a useful stick to hit the Government with, the reality as you suggest is that it develops and/or finds its way here anyway.

Here are countries where the Delta variant has been identified.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/20210608_Weekly_Epi_Update_43.pdf

I will test myself before I go to the party, and in the days afterwards. In the event that I test positive before the party, I won't go, and if I test positive afterwards, I will let everyone who was there know.

Well done for going ahead although if I were you I would cut the tests. Don't go if you feel unwell but mass testing is the root cause of all the government's metrics/doom scenarios. If people stopped testing we would be out of this.

 

[Failed Unit]

I must admit I walked past a rapid test centre today. I could only think of negative outcomes if I tested to the uk as a whole. Things such as.

“He is positive. He has had 2 jabs. The vaccines are useless. Best stay locked down forever”.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I fully agree with that.

My son has really suffered - he's in his first year at one of the Unis that have handled Covid badly. He's never had mental health problems in the past, but is now a shadow of his former self. It's not the learning/teaching that's the problem (though he's had no face to face teaching at all as none of his lecturers are even on campus for over a year!). It's the Uni support staff - constant emails telling them what they can't do, heavy handed campus security staff throwing their weight around, etc. Him and his flat mates are now almost scared of their own shadows and are spending time in their rooms when they could be out doing other things because of fear of getting fined/punished for some minor transgression. Some of the campus security staff have even been hiding behind pillars in communal areas and jumping out to "apprehend" students who are going in/out through the wrong door or not adhering to one way systems. They've also been putting parking penalty notices on student cars who've parked in the empty staff car parks. It's like there's a war against students. He's just found out he's "passed" his first year with very good results, but it's 50:50 whether he'll go back in September as he just can't face it again as the entire atmosphere/environment is toxic anti-student.

My OH has also suffered badly due to cancer. 3 years ago, had successful chemo treatment, everything went as planned, easy access for support, advice, etc when there were side effects, all appointments planned and executed well. At the start of 2020 it came back and chemo started again in March. Then abruptly halted with a curt phone call. Then absolute radio silence for 3 months. Called the dept many times to ask for progress, dates for restart of chemo, etc - mostly nothing but an answerphone, but occasionally got to speak to a receptionist/administrator who promised a phone back. No phone backs ever made. We even went to the oncology dept in person, on a normal "work day" to find it closed with the shutters down. Eventually, we got an appointment with consultant in July, but since then it's been one delay after another. Even routine blood tests are a pain to organise as the GP surgery now refuse to do them, and the oncology dept have moved to a different hospital across the county border. We're at the mercy of "roving" plebotomists who go around to different medical centres to take blood samples - the staff are very unreliable and half the time we've had them cancelled on the morning of the test, with re-arranged appointments up to a month later. Then other tests have been a nightmare too, such as MRI scans, x-rays, etc - nothing is easy anymore and it's a constant battle to get appointments for tests, which are then often cancelled last minute and you're back in the long queue for a new appointment. Anyway, finally started the chemo again in February this year (a delay of 11 months to get started again). The chemo has been a nightmare - again, constant cancellations, no one to contact re side effects - it's been stop-start all the way this time, no consistency, not a single month when the full chemo treatment has been given. Even the consultant fails to call on the pre-arranged telephone review consultations and then it's another month to schedule another call.

So yes, it really is time that everything else was brought back to normal. And yes, I do appreciate that there'll be some unfortunates who carry on catching covid, some suffering long covid and some sadly dying, but I think at the moment, far more people are being harmed by the covid restrictions than are being saved.

I’m really sorry to hear that your family have really struggled, your partner for starters needs to be top priority now, no excuses, why should she have to wait any longer? Same goes for other patients they need to come first above Covid now, it makes me laugh when I hear the slogan “protect the NHS” we do with out taxes therefore treat vulnerable patients, this past year I’ve become rather jaded with my view of the NHS, no doubt through all of this trauma your partners mental health can’t have been great either.

As for your son I can sympathise with him, I just finished my third year of my undergrad at Greenwich, and while they have been fairly relaxed, you’re right about the security staff being over zealous, I went to the library the other day to finish my final essay and I walked in the wrong direction apparently (you got to follow the arrows because Covid only travels in one direction see) and some security guard shouted at me and a few others who “broke Covid rules” by going the wrong way, I pointed out that the virus is everywhere and no amount of social distancing or walking in a certain direction of travel will prevent it from reaching us, in the end a few other security guards sided with us and apologised for their colleagues rudeness.

I don’t blame your son for not wanting to go back to uni either, who knows what restrictions could be in place in September, the goal posts keep moving, also if your sons uni haven’t been supporting the students in this time it will definitely alter his view of the experience, hopefully it’ll get better if he goes back, what uni is he at? Could he transfer to another one if he’s that unhappy? Luckily Greenwich haven’t been so bad as i said it’s 60/40 depending on who I’m interacting with.

They must be of a smaller virtue value

It seems that way, Shame really because mental health was finally becoming a topic of conversation before Covid

Pleased to report that my friend whose 60th birthday is on 23rd June has decided to go ahead with the party at his house.

We are going to decide for ourselves what is and isn't safe, and act accordingly.

I will test myself before I go to the party, and in the days afterwards. In the event that I test positive before the party, I won't go, and if I test positive afterwards, I will let everyone who was there know.

Up yours locktivists, SAGE scientists and Boris Johnson

You are not going to control our lives any more.

I have got plenty of suggestions as to what you can do with your stupid COVID rules and restrictions.

I absolutely 100% support you on this, I for one am no longer wearing a mask from the 21st, the only way to show this government what the majority of us feel is to ignore the extension

 

[greyman42]

I absolutely 100% support you on this, I for one am no longer wearing a mask from the 21st, the only way to show this government what the majority of us feel is to ignore the extension

I am right with you on this, but there is no point other people moaning about masks if they are not willing to do the same as us.

 

[initiation]

The previous models used to plan the roadmap were out by a factor of 25 for the chosen unlock option....
How can these not be challenged?

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1404748272867188736

 

[NorthKent1989]

I am right with you on this, but there is no point other people moaning about masks if they are not willing to do the same as us.

It should be individual choice wearing a mask much like the vaccine it’s a personal choice

 

[island]

It should be individual choice wearing a mask much like the vaccine it’s a personal choice

Even Walt Disney World, which had one of the strictest mask rules I’ve come across, has as of today dropped all mask requirements for vaccinated individuals except on buses and transportation, and accepts self-declaration of whether you have been vaccinated.

 

[TravelDream]

Even Walt Disney World, which had one of the strictest mask rules I’ve come across, has as of today dropped all mask requirements for vaccinated individuals except on buses and transportation, and accepts self-declaration of whether you have been vaccinated.

This is not quite correct.

Disney World and Disney Land California are following Federal Government recommendations which state that people don't need to wear masks (apart from on public transport) if they have received both vaccine doses. They are not making up these things themselves.

There is no vaccine passport or register in the US (and will not be as so many are against it) so they have to take guests word on the matter.

 

[island]

This is not quite correct.

Disney World and Disney Land California are following Federal Government recommendations which state that people don't need to wear masks (apart from on public transport) if they have received both vaccine doses. They are not making up these things themselves.

There is no vaccine passport or register in the US (and will not be as so many are against it) so they have to take guests word on the matter.

Except Disney World is also not requiring guests under 12, who could not possibly be fully vaccinated, to wear face coverings.

Certainly until a month or two ago they had been stricter than almost everywhere else in terms of their interpretations and applications, so there has been a step change.

 

[35B]

Is there any medically proved fact that children are less susceptable to the effects of the Covid-19 virus, as the comment suggesting that be the case has been used very many times in media outlets.

The interesting question is how much they transmit Covid-19, on which the evidence doesn't appear entirely clear. Logically, it seems self-evident that with restrictions in force, children mixing in school and on school transport must be acting to spread the virus, but it hasn't been matched by case loads.

I notice how the single does is now weak. But when the extended the time between doses to 12 weeks on the most vulnerable groups it was strong. Strange that….

Which is because "Delta" works differently from earlier variants of Covid, and the existing vaccines are less effective on a single dose.

 

[Failed Unit]

The interesting question is how much they transmit Covid-19, on which the evidence doesn't appear entirely clear. Logically, it seems self-evident that with restrictions in force, children mixing in school and on school transport must be acting to spread the virus, but it hasn't been matched by case loads.


Which is because "Delta" works differently from earlier variants of Covid, and the existing vaccines are less effective on a single dose.

Convenient isn’t it…..

 

[LAX54]

And it develops here anyway - see the Kent variant.

Also note that the likes of Australia have the Indian variant, despite the Fort Knox nature of its borders.

I get the impression with Australia, if they ,let you in, must coat you with some disinfectant ! but as you rightly say, you cannot keep it out, just shutting an airport or two will do no good, or very little

 

[nlogax]

Convenient isn’t it…..

Not sure what you're getting at here. It is what it is, it's what all viruses do over time.