Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[35B]

Convenient isn’t it…..

For whom? And for what?

 

[TravelDream]

Both Australia and New Zealand, renowned for their incredibly tight border controls, have had cases of the Indian variant.

In fact most countries have. Those countries that haven't officially got cases probably have but haven't gene sequenced them.

You can't keep variants out. Even if we shut the borders completely for travel/ visiting friends and relatives and similar, we'd still have lorry drivers, cargo aircraft pilots, diplomats etc. etc. crossing the border.
Some people don't seem to realise this. We will never have zero Covid in this country. Never ever.

 

[Failed Unit]

For whom? And for what?

For the government to move the goal post and keep us locked up for longer. Watch July come and yet another delay.

Not sure what you're getting at here. It is what it is, it's what all viruses do over time.

The government keeps moving the goal posts. This is great for them to keep this dreadful situation going on another month.

 

[MikeWM]

The required statutory instrument has arrived.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/705/contents/made

Usual boilerplate lie to open with

the Secretary of State is of the opinion that, by reason of urgency, it is necessary to make this instrument without a draft having been laid before, and approved by a resolution of, each House of Parliament.

even though Parliament is sitting as I type this, and they had until at least Sunday to pass this.

Nothing especially exciting in the contents - basically anything that was to expire before the 18th July (the 'steps' regulations, masks on public transport, and a few other things) now expires end 18th July. And the capacity changes to weddings as mentioned yesterday. Doesn't seem to be anything else there of consequence.

 

[nlogax]

The government keeps moving the goal posts. This is great for them to keep this dreadful situation going on another month.

This particular variant didn't emerge until the end of last year, by which time the current vaccines were set in stone. That's nobody's fault. The government should have factored in the possibility of variants coming months and months ago in order to head yesterday's events off at the pass. Maybe they were warned and didn't take any notice? I'm sure someone knows the answer to that.

However I don't believe Johnson and co want to 'keep this dreadful situation going'. It's costing the Treasury and everyone else a very large fortune.

 

[35B]

For the government to move the goal post and keep us locked up for longer. Watch July come and yet another delay.


The government keeps moving the goal posts. This is great for them to keep this dreadful situation going on another month.

A government run by a staunch libertarian, whose instinct has always been to avoid lockdowns. Please!

I don't care whether you love or hate this government, or respect or not how they've responded to Covid, but the idea that they are doing this is because they want to keep people restricted is just nonsense.

 

[Failed Unit]

This particular variant didn't emerge until the end of last year, by which time the current vaccines were set in stone. That's nobody's fault. The government should have factored in the possibility of variants coming months and months ago in order to head yesterday's events off at the pass. Maybe they were warned and didn't take any notice? I'm sure someone knows the answer to that.

However I don't believe Johnson and co want to 'keep this dreadful situation going'. It's costing the Treasury and everyone else a very large fortune.

To be honest I don’t know what to believe any more. But he doesn’t seem to be pushing to help people get their lives back. I know you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. But the data presented yesterday did not seem to support increasing our collective prison sentences.

A government run by a staunch libertarian, whose instinct has always been to avoid lockdowns. Please!

I don't care whether you love or hate this government, or respect or not how they've responded to Covid, but the idea that they are doing this is because they want to keep people restricted is just nonsense.

Do you know this for sure. They and their cronies have directly made a lot of money out of this pandemic. Awarding contracts without suitable tender processes etc.

 

[35B]

To be honest I don’t know what to believe any more. But he doesn’t seem to be pushing to help people get their lives back. I know you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. But the data presented yesterday did not seem to support increasing our collective prison sentences.

Nor, using that ridiculous analogy, did it support granting us parole. It's ambiguous, with case numbers rising just as the hospitalisation data is suggesting that the consequences of the average case are reducing significantly.

It's a tough call, and on this one I'd not criticise him either way given the lack of clarity in the data, and the number of deaths he's already responsible for due to delaying difficult decisions. Given my views on data driving decisions, I am frustrated that the test for what happens in 4 weeks (or is it 2?) is so ill-defined; that needs to be clearer.

 

[Failed Unit]

Nor, using that ridiculous analogy, did it support granting us parole. It's ambiguous, with case numbers rising just as the hospitalisation data is suggesting that the consequences of the average case are reducing significantly.

It's a tough call, and on this one I'd not criticise him either way given the lack of clarity in the data, and the number of deaths he's already responsible for due to delaying difficult decisions. Given my views on data driving decisions, I am frustrated that the test for what happens in 4 weeks (or is it 2?) is so ill-defined; that needs to be clearer.

The analogy is correct. Is this not a prison sentence? I can’t actually go anywhere because I need to wear a mask (which I can’t for medical reasons - and can’t be doing with getting abuse from total strangers because of they think I am single handedly spreading COVID despite minimal evidence the mask helps anyway)

Growth? it seems to have stabilised.

 

[MikeWM]

A government run by a staunch libertarian, whose instinct has always been to avoid lockdowns.

Though he's not done a terribly good job of avoiding lockdowns, given he's the Prime Minister and all these decisions ultimately are his, and yet we've had three lockdowns so far, plus many other totally unprecedented restrictions (on where people can go, what they must wear, who they can meet, whether they can run a business or go to their jobs and earn money, on practicing their religion, even whether they can sing or dance in public...)

Johnson may have declared himself a 'libertarian' but the proof is in the pudding, and he's acted about as libertarian as the Democratic People's Rebublic of Korea is democratic. About the only positive thing to say about Johnson as a 'libertarian' is that the measures he's put in place have been, in some cases at least, not *quite* as pointlessly oppressive as some of those in other countries.

 

[Bantamzen]

Nor, using that ridiculous analogy, did it support granting us parole. It's ambiguous, with case numbers rising just as the hospitalisation data is suggesting that the consequences of the average case are reducing significantly.

It's a tough call, and on this one I'd not criticise him either way given the lack of clarity in the data, and the number of deaths he's already responsible for due to delaying difficult decisions. Given my views on data driving decisions, I am frustrated that the test for what happens in 4 weeks (or is it 2?) is so ill-defined; that needs to be clearer.

I've been keeping an eye on local data where I live in Bradford. An despite being an area where you might expect growth being a large, built up city, infection rates are already stabilising, and hospitalisations & deaths continue to fall. It certainly suggests that despite a spike in infections, the link to medical interventions is being broken.

 

[birchesgreen]

Johnson is a libertarian when it comes to his own selfish lusts and needs but i see little evidence he is happy for everyone else to have the same freedoms.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The previous models used to plan the roadmap were out by a factor of 25 for the chosen unlock option....
How can these not be challenged?

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1404748272867188736

View attachment 98222

Its quite staggering how nobody at senior government level doesn't challenge the basis of these models. On every occasion they've proven to woefully inaccurate and by now you would have thought the modellers would have refined them or is it they wouldn't tell the story that's wanted.

 

[nlogax]

Numbers seem to suggest the Delta variant cases are slowing in growth and on the cusp of levelling off across the country. Maybe I'm missing something but I'm struggling to see how we get from here to a projected 100k - 200k cases per day in any short order.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Meanwhile there are 60,000 people in a football stadium as I type this in Hungary yet we can't order a pint at the bar

 

[Failed Unit]

Numbers seem to suggest the Delta variant cases are slowing in growth and on the cusp of levelling off across the country. Maybe I'm missing something but I'm struggling to see how we get from here to a projected 100k - 200k cases per day in any short order.

Stuck at around 8k - which is a large number of course for a few days. Hardly exponentially growing.

 

[initiation]

Usual boilerplate lie to open with

And the usual boiletplate ending
"No impact assessment has been prepared for these Regulations."

It is utterly disgraceful. Yet according to the media 2/3rds of people support the extension.

Its quite staggering how nobody at senior government level doesn't challenge the basis of these models. On every occasion they've proven to woefully inaccurate and by now you would have thought the modellers would have refined them or is it they wouldn't tell the story that's wanted.

Absolutely, and the fact that the 'scientists' can never seem to admit they were wrong.
If I had such a poor track record at work I would be out of a job - yet here they are continuing to advise on hugely harmful decisions.

 

[sjpowermac]

Pleased to report that my friend whose 60th birthday is on 23rd June has decided to go ahead with the party at his house.

We are going to decide for ourselves what is and isn't safe, and act accordingly.

I will test myself before I go to the party, and in the days afterwards. In the event that I test positive before the party, I won't go, and if I test positive afterwards, I will let everyone who was there know.

Up yours locktivists, SAGE scientists and Boris Johnson

You are not going to control our lives any more.

I have got plenty of suggestions as to what you can do with your stupid COVID rules and restrictions.

I’m happy to be corrected, but my understanding is that the law states a maximum of six people are allowed to gather indoors or up to 30 outside. I hope that you and your (maximum of ) five friends (indoors) 29 (outdoors) have a wonderful celebration. I feel sure that you will be acting within the law and I’m a bit nonplussed by your comment…

Living safely with respiratory infections, including COVID-19

Guidance for living safely with respiratory infections, including coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.gov.uk

However, you can meet up indoors with friends and family you do not live with, either:

• in a group of up to 6 from any number of households (children of all ages count towards the limit of 6)
• in a group of any size from up to two households (each household can include an existing support bubble, if eligible)
  
  [\QUOTE]

 

[MikeWM]

Absolutely, and the fact that the 'scientists' can never seem to admit they were wrong.
If I had such a poor track record at work I would be out of a job - yet here they are continuing to advise on hugely harmful decisions.

Exactly, they are now doing worse at predicting stuff than economists, which is quite impressive.

On a similar note, remember who said this not so long ago?

'I think the people of this country have had enough of experts with organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong'

Hint : it is a senior member of the current Government, and apparently one of the most hawkish proponents of continuing restrictions...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Both Australia and New Zealand, renowned for their incredibly tight border controls, have had cases of the Indian variant.

In fact most countries have. Those countries that haven't officially got cases probably have but haven't gene sequenced them.

You can't keep variants out. Even if we shut the borders completely for travel/ visiting friends and relatives and similar, we'd still have lorry drivers, cargo aircraft pilots, diplomats etc. etc. crossing the border.
Some people don't seem to realise this. We will never have zero Covid in this country. Never ever.

Agree your can't stop it but you can certainly moderate its growth rate by keeping a lid on countries where it was spreading fast ie India. Had they imposed quarantine earlier they would have reduced the amount of locations it got seeded to and subsequently spread from. OK its kicking the can down the road to some degree but everyday a few hundred thousand more people are being double dosed so there would have been less hosts for the virus to infect.

 

[Bishopstone]

Meanwhile there are 60,000 people in a football stadium as I type this in Hungary yet we can't order a pint at the bar

Hungary has the second highest Covid death rate per capita in the world* behind Peru, so bear that in mind when praising their full football stadia.

*Usual caveats that not all countries produce reliable or comparable data etc.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

And the usual boiletplate ending
"No impact assessment has been prepared for these Regulations."

It is utterly disgraceful. Yet according to the media 2/3rds of people support the extension.


Absolutely, and the fact that the 'scientists' can never seem to admit they were wrong.
If I had such a poor track record at work I would be out of a job - yet here they are continuing to advise on hugely harmful decisions.

I spent several years in developing modelling to simulate a train service and its impact on the power system to support designs of electrification and our first runs gave us some very skewy results against reality when we instrumented up the Midland Main Line but we worked out what the issues were and refined the model to improve accuracy. These modellers have built a flawed model which i get needs to right side fail but when you are magnitudes out you would have thought they would have acknowledged that and fed back where they believed the model needing improving but they say they've done that for next release but they seem silent to me.

 

[35B]

The analogy is correct. Is this not a prison sentence? I can’t actually go anywhere because I need to wear a mask (which I can’t for medical reasons - and can’t be doing with getting abuse from total strangers because of they think I am single handedly spreading COVID despite minimal evidence the mask helps anyway)

Growth? it seems to have stabilised.

I think you need to consider what a prison sentence involves beyond the basic requirement to stay in one's living quarters, and the range of other restrictions on what you can and cannot do. I stand by my view of the ridiculousness of the analogy, while sympathising with the particular issues you face with the refusal of others to treat you with the respect you deserve.

As for growth in case numbers, the figures I've seen suggest that any stabilisation is recent, and not yet a trend. Which is why I say that I sympathise with any government having to make such a decision on a fixed schedule, with unclear data.

On a similar note, remember who said this not so long ago?

'I think the people of this country have had enough of experts with organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong'


Hint : it is a senior member of the current Government, and apparently one of the most hawkish proponents of continuing restrictions...

Indeed he did - and he highlighted an important political point that was heavily contested in the context of Brexit, and where the wisdom around that quote probably belongs more to his foes than supporters. If the outcomes of Brexit are anything to judge by, the wisdom of experts who know about things is much to be preferred over the wisdom of "the people" relying on what they've been fed in the press.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Hungary has the second highest Covid death rate per capita in the world* behind Peru, so bear that in mind when praising their full football stadia.

*Usual caveats that not all countries produce reliable or comparable data etc.

They must have forced them all in to the stadium at gunpoint then?

We are vaccinated to the eye balls yet we have 20k in a 90k arena

 

[Yew]

The required statutory instrument has arrived.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/705/contents/made

Usual boilerplate lie to open with



even though Parliament is sitting as I type this, and they had until at least Sunday to pass this.

Nothing especially exciting in the contents - basically anything that was to expire before the 18th July (the 'steps' regulations, masks on public transport, and a few other things) now expires end 18th July. And the capacity changes to weddings as mentioned yesterday. Doesn't seem to be anything else there of consequence.

Since the original legislation said they didn't have to provide an impact assessment, as the law was going to last less than a year; do they now have to publish said assessment?

 

[brad465]

This particular variant didn't emerge until the end of last year, by which time the current vaccines were set in stone. That's nobody's fault. The government should have factored in the possibility of variants coming months and months ago in order to head yesterday's events off at the pass. Maybe they were warned and didn't take any notice? I'm sure someone knows the answer to that.

However I don't believe Johnson and co want to 'keep this dreadful situation going'. It's costing the Treasury and everyone else a very large fortune.

Johnson normally only does what will get him to tomorrow; the long term consequences of keeping this situation going in terms of financial cost and other things won't register in his mind so much. Furthermore when it comes to the consequences of trying to pay all this back and other fallout, chances are Johnson will try and do a runner from his own mess, just like Cameron did. Part of me wonders if Sunak not extending furlough on the current terms is him trying to force Johnson's hand, and/or a gamble to make things more dire to speed up his prospects of taking over.

 

[island]

Since the original legislation said they didn't have to provide an impact assessment, as the law was going to last less than a year; do they now have to publish said assessment?

Probably, but if they don’t, all that happens is they get dragged through the courts in 3-6 months and the judge issues a declaration that they acted unlawfully.

 

[Purple Orange]

On the whole I support the short delay - We know that the Government have allowed in a variant which is somewhat resistant to existing vaccines - in particular to a single dose and therefore it does seem to make sense to give that extra bit of time with relatively limited rules just to make absolutely sure we never have to go backwards.

What will be fun to see is if England do well in the football - The final is on Sunday July 11th with the final at Wembley. If England were to win then good luck to anyone who would try and enforce any restrictions!

Does that not make you feel angry with Johnson?

 

[Yew]

Does that not make you feel angry with Johnson?

All of our preexisting science says that border controls don't work.

 

[Purple Orange]

All of our preexisting science says that border controls don't work.

So why was the border closed to neighbouring countries to India?