Snow Related Disruption 29/01/19

[Bedpan]

Have the shops run out of bread and milk yet?

That'll be on March 30th surely.

 

[Esker-pades]

One also has to remember the effects of constant freeze-thaw. Over the winter, the UK's temperature hovers around freezing, which means that this is a very common occurance. It puts stress on infrastructure, arguably more stress than if our climate stayed below freezing for a month or so.

 

[Taunton]

Thanks for the video. Any reason they didn’t thaw that engine out by just warming it up slowly with a gentle fire to start with.

Probably because they had opened the boiler drain plugs on it to empty the water once it got to the stage of being abandoned long enough that it might freeze internally, and damage not so much the boiler itself, which can possibly withstand the pressure, as the pipework and gauges etc.

 

[E759]

This may sound like a silly question, but what strategy do people follow on the ECML when snow starts? I've got five return day-trips North up the ECML in February all railway heritage related. Out and back from Horsham (HRH) so would need to abandon and return home rather than try to get to the "destination" (York/Leeds/North Allerton/Darlington/Newcastle/Edinburgh) if/when snow falls. All tickets are Advances or promotion (LNER seat sale) Advances.

Thnx

 

[Taunton]

One also has to remember the effects of constant freeze-thaw. Over the winter, the UK's temperature hovers around freezing, which means that this is a very common occurance. It puts stress on infrastructure, arguably more stress than if our climate stayed below freezing for a month or so.

Please remember that Russia has exactly these conditions in the shoulders of their winter, in November and again in March/April, along with all the wet snow etc at those times associated with what we are told "doesn't happen in Russian low temperatures".

I go to Russia. I'm always amazed how British Airways at the airport there handle departing in a blizzard quite OK, with all the necessary procedures, where at Heathrow they would have long completely given up.

 

[Iskra]

This may sound like a silly question, but what strategy do people follow on the ECML when snow starts? I've got five return day-trips North up the ECML in February all railway heritage related. Out and back from Horsham (HRH) so would need to abandon and return home rather than try to get to the "destination" (York/Leeds/North Allerton/Darlington/Newcastle/Edinburgh) if/when snow falls. All tickets are Advances or promotion (LNER seat sale) Advances.

Thnx

Most likely you won’t have any problems. If the snow is bad and you decide not to travel or the trains are cancelled you can get a full refund on your advances. If you are delayed, claim delay repay as normal.

If we do get really bad snow, the main thing is not to get yourself stuck up north. So if it is bad, I just wouldn’t travel and get an abandoned journey refund.

 

[Iskra]

Please remember that Russia has exactly these conditions in the shoulders of their winter, in November and again in March/April, along with all the wet snow etc at those times associated with what we are told "doesn't happen in Russian low temperatures".

I go to Russia. I'm always amazed how British Airways at the airport there handle departing in a blizzard quite OK, with all the necessary procedures, where at Heathrow they would have long completely given up.

The Russian seasons are a lot more predictable than the English ones though. And if you have all the equipment for -40, you can use it for -1 too.

 

[E759]

Most likely you won’t have any problems. If the snow is bad and you decide not to travel or the trains are cancelled you can get a full refund on your advances. If you are delayed, claim delay repay as normal.

If we do get really bad snow, the main thing is not to get yourself stuck up north. So if it is bad, I just wouldn’t travel and get an abandoned journey refund.

Cheers Iskra

 

[Taunton]

The Russian seasons are a lot more predictable than the English ones though. And if you have all the equipment for -40, you can use it for -1 too.

No and No.

 

[Iskra]

Cheers Iskra

Also Network Rail do try prepare for Snow, by having ploughs and clearance locos in position or out and about. They are actually quite good at keeping the network running in my experience.

I got up to Wick and then back down to London on the sleeper last year, in places there was probably a foot of snow on the highland mainline.

Trains handle snow better than cars/buses.

 

[Iskra]

No and No.

So Russian Winter isn’t predictably snowy and cold? It’s legendary.

In the UK our winters vary due to the gulf stream. Some winters we get barely any snow, some we get loads.

 

[furnessvale]

Also Network Rail do try prepare for Snow, by having ploughs and clearance locos in position or out and about. They are actually quite good at keeping the network running in my experience.

Sadly, I am not so certain about that. I recall that on at least one occasion last winter, Network Rail proudly announced in the late evening that they had managed to get a blocked line reopened and that "train services will resume at 8am tomorrow". Of course by 8am drifting snow had blocked the line again. Meanwhile the parallel road was running freely.

 

[Iskra]

Sadly, I am not so certain about that. I recall that on at least one occasion last winter, Network Rail proudly announced in the late evening that they had managed to get a blocked line reopened and that "train services will resume at 8am tomorrow". Of course by 8am drifting snow had blocked the line again. Meanwhile the parallel road was running freely.

I’ve no doubt that their performance is not perfect, but on the whole I think they do a good job with snow and I do a lot of travelling in Scotland in winter- it’s never affected my travels.

3rd rail land is a different story, but that’s a flaw in the design really.

The poster I was replying to was referring to the ECML, I can’t think of any time recently that it has been closed due to snow.

 

[LowLevel]

More of the problem nowadays is staff availability. The days of signalling staff, train crews etc living outside their depot are gone (no one in London could afford it for one).

That said even when it was nasty last year I managed the 20 plus mile round trip by being careful. I thank my stars I learned to drive in an awful year for snow so touch wood I've been OK.

 

[M28361M]

Merseyrail has announced changes to early morning services tomorrow. https://www.merseyrail.org/changes-to-first-services.aspx

Ice is expected over-night on Tuesday 29 January and passengers are advised that the first trains on each line will be cancelled on Wednesday 30 January, which will allow time to check the lines are clear before passenger services start.

Details of the first train times can be found below.

The wording is a bit confusing - "first trains on each line" to me implies only the first service of the day is cancelled, but actually it is a lot more than that, with most services starting around 0700.

 

[HaggisBotherer]

I did see a bloke in shorts yesterday in Fort William.

Just shorts or was he 'taps aff' as well?

More than anything, I think it's a case of what you're used to.

Back in the days when I was a soft southerner, I remember 1987 was a good (i.e. lots of snow) winter and I had a couple of pleasant days on the Uckfield line, in the days before it was rationalised, with roaring fires in waiting rooms, etc. But I remember sitting on a Hampshire unit wrapped up and still feeling bloody cold, even with the heaters blasting away under the seats.

Having lived in Scotland for quite a few years, I genuinely don't notice the cold that much now. Chez HB is in a frost hollow, so minus 5 or 6 is common in the winter and it's rare that it doesn't hit minus 10 at least once or twice. It's wet or wind chill with it that's the real killer. Then I get out and think "Ah, OK. Maybe go back for a coat"

 

[Esker-pades]

The poster I was replying to was referring to the ECML, I can’t think of any time recently that it has been closed due to snow.

Last March - Was that snow, high winds, both or something else?

 

[matacaster]

Incorrect. Weather forecasts do have useful skill out to five days, up to a week in some cases (yes this has been officially verified). If you look at the Met Office forecasts you will find local and regional forecasts that are rather more than "snow, sleet or rain may fall somewhere in the country". Again, why do people constantly feel the need to trot out tired old BS stereotypes, is it a substitute for intelligent rational objective thinking? It is sad that people on here call out those who make incorrect tired old assertions about the rail industry, yet will go and trot out the same type of nonsense about something they are ignorant about.

Perhaps you are not aware that many of the meteorological gathering stations are nowhere near the populations that the forecast is supposed to help. EG forecasts for Huddersfield come from Bingley which is at a completely different elevation aand 18 miles away. The pennines mean that forecasts for a broad area are pretty inaccurate. Today most weather forecasts predicted at least sleet for a fair period - sure there was some on the M62 on the tops at Scammonden, but pretty much everywhere else around here not a jot and certainly no snow whatsoever, despite Metcheck suggesting for a week there would be a fair amount of snow.

 

[matacaster]

Perhaps you are not aware that many of the meteorological gathering stations are nowhere near the populations that the forecast is supposed to help. EG forecasts for Huddersfield come from Bingley which is at a completely different elevation aand 18 miles away. The pennines mean that forecasts for a broad area are pretty inaccurate. Today most weather forecasts predicted at least sleet for a fair period - sure there was some on the M62 on the tops at Scammonden, but pretty much everywhere else around here not a jot and certainly no snow whatsoever, despite Metcheck suggesting for a week there would be a fair amount of snow.

Furthermore, many of the weather stations are on old RAF airfields or were placed to help farmers. Quite frankly they got the temperature wrong today in my part of the world (a few degrees too high to snow) and their 'crying wolf' means people will not listen when there is a genuine problem. How can a projected max 3cm of snow cause a Yellow waning anywhere.

 

[Wivenswold]

Matacaster, for reference purposes;

1.Metcheck is not the Met Office, the BBC don't get their data from the Met Office either. Each weather agency approaches forecasting differently. The Met Office uses professional meteorologists and rarely gives a duff day's forecast. Metcheck, last time I looked, generate their forecasts from the USA NOAA agency weather models (which, thanks to Trump's Shutdown has had reduced data output). The Met Office considers global data then produces its own synoptic output. Newspapers are the least reliable. They will scream "Big Freeze" but by the bottom of the article will quote the Met Office as saying "It could get cold". The Press cause most of the misinformation about weather.

2.Weather Apps aren't hugely reliable. There's no substitute for watching the actual forecasts as two symbols and a max/min temp indicator on these apps doesn't tell the whole story. In the race to provide minute-by-minute, postcode-by-postcode weather information the value of being told what's happening in the atmosphere by a qualified scientist has been lost.

3.This week's forecast was always going to be troublesome. I'm happy to bore anyone with the reasons why.

4.Air temperature does not necessarily determine whether it will snow. The wet bulb temperature does. It's perfectly possible to have snow at 4oC if there's a negative dew point (wet bulb temperature).

5.The Met Office uses a stringent matrix system for Weather Warnings. I recommend you read up on it. It's based on probability v severity. So a yellow "warning" is usually saying there's a risk of bad weather. A risk!

6.The warning system doesn't relate to snow depth. Mild to cold frontal systems cause immense disruption as they turn puddles into ice, in fact they are just as problematic as a straight day of snow.

7.If by "Snowflake" you mean "Empathetic, compassionate, relatively intelligent and gregarious" then thank you. It's not the insult you hoped it would be. "Snowflake" and proud.

 

[philthetube]

How do the Russians manage every winter running the Trans-Siberian through Novosibirsk and Irkutsk at -40 C? We get down to -2 C and a centimetre of snow and everyone panics.

Always used to be Switzerland quoted but that must have changed after their problems earlier this winter.

 

[Highlandspring]

37038 and 37425 are running a pair of independent ploughs (ADB965224 and ADB965230) from Kingmoor to Inverness this morning, currently passing Garnqueen North Jn.

 

[Mag_seven]

Always used to be Switzerland quoted but that must have changed after their problems earlier this winter.

What problems earlier this winter (in terms of disruption to public transport)?

 

[DarloRich]

This may sound like a silly question, but what strategy do people follow on the ECML when snow starts? I've got five return day-trips North up the ECML in February all railway heritage related. Out and back from Horsham (HRH) so would need to abandon and return home rather than try to get to the "destination" (York/Leeds/North Allerton/Darlington/Newcastle/Edinburgh) if/when snow falls. All tickets are Advances or promotion (LNER seat sale) Advances.

Thnx

You will almost certainly be fine. If snow disrupts your journey I am sure a refund will be offered.

Matacaster, for reference purposes;

1.Metcheck is not the Met Office, the BBC don't get their data from the Met Office either. Each weather agency approaches forecasting differently. The Met Office uses professional meteorologists and rarely gives a duff day's forecast. Metcheck, last time I looked, generate their forecasts from the USA NOAA agency weather models (which, thanks to Trump's Shutdown has had reduced data output). The Met Office considers global data then produces its own synoptic output. Newspapers are the least reliable. They will scream "Big Freeze" but by the bottom of the article will quote the Met Office as saying "It could get cold". The Press cause most of the misinformation about weather.

2.Weather Apps aren't hugely reliable. There's no substitute for watching the actual forecasts as two symbols and a max/min temp indicator on these apps doesn't tell the whole story. In the race to provide minute-by-minute, postcode-by-postcode weather information the value of being told what's happening in the atmosphere by a qualified scientist has been lost.

3.This week's forecast was always going to be troublesome. I'm happy to bore anyone with the reasons why.

4.Air temperature does not necessarily determine whether it will snow. The wet bulb temperature does. It's perfectly possible to have snow at 4oC if there's a negative dew point (wet bulb temperature).

5.The Met Office uses a stringent matrix system for Weather Warnings. I recommend you read up on it. It's based on probability v severity. So a yellow "warning" is usually saying there's a risk of bad weather. A risk!

6.The warning system doesn't relate to snow depth. Mild to cold frontal systems cause immense disruption as they turn puddles into ice, in fact they are just as problematic as a straight day of snow.

7.If by "Snowflake" you mean "Empathetic, compassionate, relatively intelligent and gregarious" then thank you. It's not the insult you hoped it would be. "Snowflake" and proud.

A very good post. I commend it to the house.

PS bore away on point 3

 

[PaxVobiscum]

I did see a bloke in shorts yesterday in Fort William...

Saw bloke in shorts scraping the ice off his Audi in a neighbouring street a few days ago - it was minus 3 .

 

[Wivenswold]

You will almost certainly be fine. If snow disrupts your journey I am sure a refund will be offered.



A very good post. I commend it to the house.

PS bore away on point 3

Thank you my honourable friend.

In short. Low pressure causes air to rise, as that air rises it is creates a gap into which surrounding air rushes. That's a very basic principle of wind.

Imagine a circular Low pressure system moving steadily East across the Atlantic towards Blighty. The top half of the system is filling up with Arctic air from the north, the south is full of milder air from all of our favourite holiday destinations. When it arrives, anyone south of the middle of the system will get mostly rain, maybe some "back end" snow as the cold front of the low system swings round in its wake. To the north, heavy snow.

Now, with 2 days before that system arrives, you have to forecast the exact path of the system as the difference means rain, sleet, wet snow* or dry snow at any one location. Bob from Chester gets rain, Ted in Warrington gets heavy snow. You make your forecast and add an element of caution but the papers just see "10 cm of snow" and that's it. The world is expecting a foot of snow and, oh I hear there's 2 foot of snow coming. My mate said it was blizzards actually, for a month.

*A vague term but generally means snow that's melting as it falls. Hits the ground and disappears.

 

[theageofthetra]

SE service stuck on a frozen conductor rail near Wadhurst for the last couple of hours. MOM (mobile ops manager ) and a can of de-icer now in attendance.

 

[Llanigraham]

Furthermore, many of the weather stations are on old RAF airfields or were placed to help farmers. Quite frankly they got the temperature wrong today in my part of the world (a few degrees too high to snow) and their 'crying wolf' means people will not listen when there is a genuine problem. How can a projected max 3cm of snow cause a Yellow waning anywhere.

Sorry, but you are wrong with your first sentence. I know of three people who have weather stations in their gardens who make reports. None of them are at old RAF stations, and one is urban.

 

[DarloRich]

Thank you my honourable friend.

In short. Low pressure causes air to rise, as that air rises it is creates a gap into which surrounding air rushes. That's a very basic principle of wind.

Imagine a circular Low pressure system moving steadily East across the Atlantic towards Blighty. The top half of the system is filling up with Arctic air from the north, the south is full of milder air from all of our favourite holiday destinations. When it arrives, anyone south of the middle of the system will get mostly rain, maybe some "back end" snow as the cold front of the low system swings round in its wake. To the north, heavy snow.

Now, with 2 days before that system arrives, you have to forecast the exact path of the system as the difference means rain, sleet, wet snow* or dry snow at any one location. Bob from Chester gets rain, Ted in Warrington gets heavy snow. You make your forecast and add an element of caution but the papers just see "10 cm of snow" and that's it. The world is expecting a foot of snow and, oh I hear there's 2 foot of snow coming. My mate said it was blizzards actually, for a month.

*A vague term but generally means snow that's melting as it falls. Hits the ground and disappears.

Thanks - I attended some lectures on Meteorology while at university. Fascinating, very complicated and vastly scientific.

 

[E759]

You will almost certainly be fine. If snow disrupts your journey I am sure a refund will be offered.



A very good post. I commend it to the house.

PS bore away on point 3

Thank you. Was more thinking about strategy of boarding and abandoning: Eg get to Kings Cross and train is delayed due to "weather issues" - abandon immediately? Get as far as York on an Edinburgh trip and train doesn't move due to weather or something else - abandon and return south on my Advance timed for much much later in the day?