South Cambridgeshire new town proposal

[telstarbox]

This is a submission to the New Towns Taskforce to create a new town on spare land close to Ashwell & Morden, Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton stations.

Get on board: the potential for 27,000 homes around existing stations between London and Cambridge - Russell Curtis

A submission to the New Towns Taskforce proposing how 100,000 people could be housed around south Cambridgeshire's rural train stations.

russellcurtis.co.uk

The submission says this in relation to the GTR / Great Northern service - is this a fair comment?

Currently, Thameslink trains call at Ashwell & Morden and Royston, but Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton are served by the Great Northern [brand], linking Cambridge to Kings Cross. The track is the same, and there is no reason why these two could not be consolidated into a single service.

 

[HughT]

I'd always assumed that the fragmentation of the stopping services was down to insufficient capacity between Shepreth and Hitchin, but I'm confident that someone on here will have more precise info.

 

[takno]

It's unlikely that the train services are set up the way they are for fun. The line provides an important regional service to Cambridge and points north which is much more important than its role serving local stations, and there was some quite painstaking discussion about level crossing open times and service levels in the recent inspectors report on the resignalling.

In the context of 100k new homes I'm sure a few tens of millions of developer funding could be deployed to make any problems go away, but it's a stretch to say that there's no reason they couldn't just be combined.

 

[Magdalia]

This is a submission to the New Towns Taskforce to create a new town on spare land close to Ashwell & Morden, Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton stations.

This is a variant of a proposal that has been around for some time, see here from 2020:

Cambridgeshire: Plans for 25,000 homes would cause 'lasting damage'

The proposals include 10,000 affordable homes, but the area's MP calls the plan "unwanted".

www.bbc.co.uk

Proposed for 25,000 homes south west of Cambridge have been described as "unwanted and unsustainable'.

Developer Thakeham, external has proposed a new town and series of connecting villages in an area including Barrington, Bassingbourn and Wimpole.

The company said it would be the UK's "first zero-carbon community".

The Conservative MP for South Cambridgeshire, Anthony Browne, said it would "cause monumental and lasting damage to local ecosystems".

The proposal is for land around Barrington, Bassingbourn cum Kneesworth, Foxton, Meldreth, Orwell, Shepreth, Whaddon and Wimpole.

I thought that it would only be a matter of time before it resurfaced.

Currently, Thameslink trains call at Ashwell & Morden and Royston, but Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton are served by the Great Northern franchise, linking Cambridge to Kings Cross. The track is the same, and there is no reason why these two could not be consolidated into a single service.

No this is not correct. The reason that Great Northern and Thameslink trains can't be consolidated into a single service is platform lengths at Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton.

Shepreth and Foxton both have level crossings adjacent to the station. The Foxton level crossing in particular is very busy for road traffic on the A10.

Between Hitchin and Cambridge only Letchworth and Royston have 12 car platforms.

Meldreth has 4 car platforms in both directions, Shepreth and Foxton have 8 car platforms on the down road, so that stopping trains do not foul the level crossings, but only 4 car platforms in the up direction. This means that maximum 8 car trains can call at these stations, and the Cambridge-Kings Cross service is 8 car trains, using selective door opening at the short platforms.

But the Thameslink Cambridge-Brighton trains are 12 cars, so are unable to call at Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton. Selective door opening is also used by Thameslink trains at Baldock and Ashwell and Morden, but these both have 8 car platforms and no level crossings so are able to have 4 cars off the back end of the platform in both directions.

Note that all class 700 formed trains need to have the middle of the train at the platform for access for people with disabilities, though neither Baldock or Ashwell and Morden have step free access.

 

[The exile]

It's unlikely that the train services are set up the way they are for fun. The line provides an important regional service to Cambridge and points north which is much more important than its role serving local stations, and there was some quite painstaking discussion about level crossing open times and service levels in the recent inspectors report on the resignalling.

In the context of 100k new homes I'm sure a few tens of millions of developer funding could be deployed to make any problems go away, but it's a stretch to say that there's no reason they couldn't just be combined.

Presumably the additional traffic caused by the 100k new homes may well require the crossings to be replaced anyway.

 

[Magdalia]

Presumably the additional traffic caused by the 100k new homes may well require the crossings to be replaced anyway.

Coincidentally replacing the Foxton level crossing with a bridge has also resurfaced recently:

New call for bridge at A10 level crossing where you could ‘read a newspaper while waiting’

Discussions about building a bypass bridge or closing the level crossing date back years.

www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk

A fresh call has been made to build a bypass around the A10 level crossing in Foxton, with a councillor claiming people wait so long at the barriers they could “read a newspaper”.

Discussions about building a bypass bridge or closing the level crossing on the busy road date back years

 

[hwl]

This is a variant of a proposal that has been around for some time, see here from 2020:

Cambridgeshire: Plans for 25,000 homes would cause 'lasting damage'

The proposals include 10,000 affordable homes, but the area's MP calls the plan "unwanted".

www.bbc.co.uk

I thought that it would only be a matter of time before it resurfaced.



No this is not correct. The reason that Great Northern and Thameslink trains can't be consolidated into a single service is platform lengths at Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton.

Shepreth and Foxton both have level crossings adjacent to the station. The Foxton level crossing in particular is very busy for road traffic on the A10.

Between Hitchin and Cambridge only Letchworth and Royston have 12 car platforms.

Meldreth has 4 car platforms in both directions, Shepreth and Foxton have 8 car platforms on the down road, so that stopping trains do not foul the level crossings, but only 4 car platforms in the up direction. This means that maximum 8 car trains can call at these stations, and the Cambridge-Kings Cross service is 8 car trains, using selective door opening at the short platforms.

But the Thameslink Cambridge-Brighton trains are 12 cars, so are unable to call at Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton. Selective door opening is also used by Thameslink trains at Baldock and Ashwell and Morden, but these both have 8 car platforms and no level crossings so are able to have 4 cars off the back end of the platform in both directions.

Note that all class 700 formed trains need to have the middle of the train at the platform for access for people with disabilities, though neither Baldock or Ashwell and Morden have step free access.

Indeed it looks like the proposer has no railway understanding.
Tens of £Ms need to sort all the stations for 12 car and probably a big challenge to make the extended times on this section work on the busier adjacent ECML and WAML sections.

 

[Magdalia]

Indeed it looks like the proposer has no railway understanding.

There are other aspects where the proposer has no understanding.

Most of the land north of Foxton and Shepreth that is shaded in on their map is not suitable for development because it is River Rhee flood plain.

The land around Ashwell and Morden station is quite hilly by the standards of this part of the world. The station is the summit of the line and in a cutting. The summit on the A505 road is more pronounced and is a notorious accident black spot because of poor sightlines. Land south of the A505, shaded in on the map, could not be developed without a bridge over the A505, and is on the steeply flanked slope of Gallows Hill which is 112m above sea level.

 

[mr_jrt]

I swear I read about the Foxton level crossing being planned to be replaced with a bridge years ago?

Regarding the short platforms...I get there's a constraint at one end (the level crossings), but why can't they simply be extended in the opposite direction? I get the impression it's just cost, as there's no reason Foxton couldn't be given 12 car platforms - it's clear straight line. Shepreth has a curve on the existing section, but an extension would be reasonably straight.

 

[Magdalia]

Regarding the short platforms...I get there's a constraint at one end (the level crossings), but why can't they simply be extended in the opposite direction?

That's what happened with the down platforms at Shepreth and Foxton.

Extending the up platforms would require more land. That wouldn't be an issue at Foxton but it would be at Shepreth. The Shepreth Wildlife Park shares a boundary with the railway on the up side at the Cambridge end.

And both platforms would need to be extended at Meldreth.

 

[Bald Rick]

This looks like a housing development version of crayonism.

I swear I read about the Foxton level crossing being planned to be replaced with a bridge years ago?

It was in the Highways plan in 1955….

 

[telstarbox]

I thought the call for sites said that proposals should be contiguous areas - which this isn't - but I could have missed something.

 

[philjo]

There had been proposals a few years ago for a major development on the MOD Barracks land at Bassingbourn which would have almost merged Bassingbourn into Royston. Though that seems to have gone quiet recently. The original proposals tied it in with East-West rail going that way but the published planned route now goes further north via Cambourne.

There are other aspects where the proposer has no understanding.

Most of the land north of Foxton and Shepreth that is shaded in on their map is not suitable for development because it is River Rhee flood plain.

The land around Ashwell and Morden station is quite hilly by the standards of this part of the world. The station is the summit of the line and in a cutting. The summit on the A505 road is more pronounced and is a notorious accident black spot because of poor sightlines. Land south of the A505, shaded in on the map, could not be developed without a bridge over the A505, and is on the steeply flanked slope of Gallows Hill which is 112m above sea level.

Some of the land east of Ashwell village is also prone to flooding.

There is a development planned to add around 3,000 homes to Baldock by 2031. Most of this will be on the north/east side, north of the railway with infil to the A505. I assume once this is underway there will be pressure to extend Baldock station to 12 coach platforms with disabled access.
The current North Hertfordshire local plan concentrates development in the area on Baldock and to a lesser extent on Royston.

 

[camflyer]

If you were to build a new town anywhere in the country then South Cambs makes as much sense as anywhere as there are already good rail and road links (with scope for improvement) and close to good employment opportunities in Cambridge and London as well as smaller clusters in Stevenage and Harlow.

 

[Jim the Jim]

It has the same general problem as all proposals for significant new housing in the Cambridge area - you're building a town the size of Cambridge, presumably full of people who want to go into London just as much as the people currently in Cambridge do - how are you going to fit them all on a railway which is already running pretty much at maximum capacity? (Not to mention all the non-rail infrastructure questions on top of that.)

Perhaps slightly better than the proposals that involve new housing nowhere near the railway, as at least you're not forcing a hundred thousand people into car dependency.

The people wanting to massively expand housing in the area need to be prepared to make the massive investment in infrastructure required. And it's difficult to see what can be done to increase capacity on the Cambridge--London lines - a brand new direct line with a tunnel under the London suburbs perhaps? That isn't going to be cheap.

 

[Magdalia]

It has the same general problem as all proposals for significant new housing in the Cambridge area - you're building a town the size of Cambridge, presumably full of people who want to go into London just as much as the people currently in Cambridge do

Your presumption is wrong. The proposed new developments will be full of people wanting to go to Cambridge not London.

And it's difficult to see what can be done to increase capacity on the Cambridge--London lines

More capacity isn't needed on the Cambridge-London routes, though it is needed on other routes into Cambridge. This proposal is about making better use of the existing rail capacity at the Cambridge end to get more people commuting to Cambridge.

 

[camflyer]

More capacity isn't needed on the Cambridge-London routes, though it is needed on other routes into Cambridge. This proposal is about making better use of the existing rail capacity at the Cambridge end to get more people commuting to Cambridge.

Get building Crossrail 2 and extend it to Cambridge?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Get building Crossrail 2 and extend it to Cambridge?

Cambridge is already on Thameslink.

 

[higthomas]

Your presumption is wrong. The proposed new developments will be full of people wanting to go to Cambridge not London.

It will be both. I live in Cambridge and a not insignificant number of people still commute to London because in most industries there are more jobs and better paying ones. Even in tech, for which Cambridge is pretty good for the UK, I'd still say London salaries are still ~50% higher on average, which is enough to convince a lot of people to suck up the commute.

 

[camflyer]

Cambridge is already on Thameslink.

So is London!

 

[cle]

It will be both. I live in Cambridge and a not insignificant number of people still commute to London because in most industries there are more jobs and better paying ones. Even in tech, for which Cambridge is pretty good for the UK, I'd still say London salaries are still ~50% higher on average, which is enough to convince a lot of people to suck up the commute.

Most of these locations will also have good London links as well as Cambridge ones.

As always, people can live wherever and choose where they work, and how they get there...

 

[bramling]

If you were to build a new town anywhere in the country then South Cambs makes as much sense as anywhere as there are already good rail and road links (with scope for improvement) and close to good employment opportunities in Cambridge and London as well as smaller clusters in Stevenage and Harlow.

The road and rail links aren’t good. The rail route from Cambridge to London is, more-or-less, at capacity, and there is limited scope to improve upon what already exists - there’s been expansion at other towns on the route as well so any capacity that can be created will be quickly swallowed up. As for the road network, it is bursting at the seams now.

 

[Magdalia]

It will be both. I live in Cambridge and a not insignificant number of people still commute to London because in most industries there are more jobs and better paying ones.

I commuted from the Fens to London for 25 years. It was a lot more attractive then than now, property prices were not so ridiculous and the train service was much more reliable. The UK property market discourages moving so there will be plenty of people commuting from Cambridge to London who made their decision to locate to Cambridge a long while ago and are stuck with the consequences. As you say, they are predominantly "still commuting to London", not "starting commuting to London".

But New Towns are different: all of the residents are making their decisions on where to locate now. People working in London and looking for a place to buy now are going to find much better options away from Cambridge. Predominantly it will be people working in Cambridge that will move into New Towns near Cambridge, not people working in London.

 

[Bald Rick]

Get building Crossrail 2 and extend it to Cambridge?

Leaving sside there isnt the capacity, nor money to do so, that would be broadly equivalent of extending the Elizabeth line to Manningtree, all stations.

 

[Magdalia]

This is a submission to the New Towns Taskforce to create a new town on spare land close to Ashwell & Morden, Meldreth, Shepreth and Foxton stations.

The ORR published the 2023/24 station usage statistics yesterday. It features an interactive table that shows, for each station, in addition to the estimated entries and exits, a main origin/destination station that had the biggest flow to and from that station.

Estimates of station usage | ORR Data Portal

Estimates of station usage​

Annual estimates of the number of entries/exits and interchanges at each station in Great Britain. These estimates are based primarily on ticket sales and are produced by Steer on behalf of ORR.

At every one of Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth, Royston and Ashwell and Morden, the main origin/destination station in 2023/24 is Cambridge.

 

[takno]

The ORR published the 2023/24 station usage statistics yesterday. It features an interactive table that shows, for each station, in addition to the estimated entries and exits, a main origin/destination station that had the biggest flow to and from that station.

Estimates of station usage | ORR Data Portal

At every one of Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth, Royston and Ashwell and Morden, the main origin/destination station in 2023/24 is Cambridge.

This is true, and in the case of Foxton Shepreth and Meldreth over 50% of total journeys were to/from Cambridge.

For Royston and Ashwell & Morden however, Cambridge is only narrowly in the lead, and the total of all the London stations is much higher than the total to Cambridge. This slightly suggests that people want to go to places other than Kings Cross, and are willing to drive to a slightly more distant starting station to get a direct Thameslink train.

 

[Magdalia]

For Royston and Ashwell & Morden however, Cambridge is only narrowly in the lead

Yes, but in the case of Royston the Cambridge flow is quite a big number, with about 300k journeys in 2023/24. Are there any bigger flows at Cambridge, apart from Kings Cross and Ely?

This slightly suggests that people want to go to places other than Kings Cross, and are willing to drive to a slightly more distant starting station to get a direct Thameslink train.

At Ashwell and Morden off peak there is only Thameslink, Kings Cross trains only stop in the peak.

 

[takno]

Yes, but in the case of Royston the Cambridge flow is quite a big number, with about 300k journeys in 2023/24. Are there any bigger flows at Cambridge, apart from Kings Cross and Ely?


At Ashwell and Morden off peak there is only Thameslink, Kings Cross trains only stop in the peak.

Stats taken from https://traksy.uk/new (which is my website), and ultimately sourced from the ORR data. Royston is quite a ways down. My point about Thameslink was more that the stations where Thameslink stops are the ones where London is a more popular destination than Cambridge​

Top Destinations From Cambridge​

Station	Journeys	Rank	%
London Kings Cross	1419804	1	28.30
Ely	502283	2	10.01
London St Pancras	321828	3	6.42
Stansted Airport	200878	4	4.00
Royston	150908	5	3.01
Cambridge North Station	139855	6	2.79
Waterbeach	91914	7	1.83
Newmarket	87161	8	1.74
Peterborough	79490	9	1.58
Kings Lynn	76563	10	1.53

 

[Magdalia]

Stats taken from https://traksy.uk/new (which is my website), and ultimately sourced from the ORR data. Royston is quite a ways down. My point about Thameslink was more that the stations where Thameslink stops are the ones where London is a more popular destination than Cambridge​

Top Destinations From Cambridge​

Station	Journeys	Rank	%
London Kings Cross	1419804	1	28.30
Ely	502283	2	10.01
London St Pancras	321828	3	6.42
Stansted Airport	200878	4	4.00
Royston	150908	5	3.01
Cambridge North Station	139855	6	2.79
Waterbeach	91914	7	1.83
Newmarket	87161	8	1.74
Peterborough	79490	9	1.58
Kings Lynn	76563	10	1.53

Thanks for the data, very illuminating. The numbers here are half the flow figures given by ORR, presumably your table is one way whereas ORR's are both ways?

Interesting how high St Pancras is, and combining that with Kings Cross sheds a different light on ORR's table of top 10 flows with one end outside London, showing Cambridge actually has similar flows to/from London as Manchester Piccadilly and Milton Keynes.

For local commuting into Cambridge, Royston is number 2 behind Ely, though there are significant numbers of long distance commuters into Cambridge from London too.

One thing I've learned from your table is that Whittlesford and Audley End are a long way down.

 

[takno]

Thanks for the data, very illuminating. The numbers here are half the flow figures given by ORR, presumably your table is one way whereas ORR's are both ways?

Interesting how high St Pancras is, and combining that with Kings Cross sheds a different light on ORR's table of top 10 flows with one end outside London, showing Cambridge actually has similar flows to/from London as Manchester Piccadilly and Milton Keynes.

For local commuting into Cambridge, Royston is number 2 behind Ely, though there are significant numbers of long distance commuters into Cambridge from London too.

One thing I've learned from your table is that Whittlesford and Audley End are a long way down.

The way the reporting seems to work in previous years is that they report the same figure in each direction for all flows. I'm not really sure whether those numbers are supposed to be added together or not, although if ORR are doing so elsewhere then it probably makes sense to do so.

It could also be interesting now you mention it to produce some groupings of the figures, like numbers to all London stations. I might have a look over the weekend