Stagecoach Group (Group-wide matters)

[LOL The Irony]

Manchester E400MMCs

Do you know if they're standard or City and what their powertrain is?

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Standard diesel E400MMCs. Some have been delivered already, 11504 onwards iirc.

 

[awsnews]

Just be lucky you ain't stuck with 20 year old Ex-Dublin deckers that have a top speed of 18MPH cough cough 16973.



I may be wrong but from my understanding it's just the orders that were currently in build that are still going ahead with everything else postponed.

That may stretch to orders where long lead items were already on contract as well, bus manufacturers could already be committed to major items even though they haven't actually started construction. The Oxford tube coaches were announced as going into service this summer which would suggest that Volvo may well have already built some of their scope already to meet that target.

 

[Jordan Adam]

Smart Hybrid E400MMCs. Some have been delivered already, 11504 onwards iirc.

I think these are just standard E400MMCs rather than SH models as they don't have the additional grill on the offside rear corner.

That may stretch to orders where long lead items were already on contract as well, bus manufacturers could already be committed to major items even though they haven't actually started construction. The Oxford tube coaches were announced as going into service this summer which would suggest that Volvo may well have already built some of their scope already to meet that target.

That could be true, however it's already been confirmed that the Oxford Tube order has been cancelled.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Smart Hybrid E400MMCs. Some have been delivered already, 11504 onwards iirc.

Steven Knight Media says nothing about them being hybrid's and a quick check on the DVLA website confirms they're standard.

 

[Snow1964]

That's exactly how I read it,

- The original planned capital expenditure for 2020/21 was £105m of cash capital expenditure and c.£38m of new leases,
- In the 3rd April Covid 19 announcement, the above was cut to as follows: £40m of cash capital expenditure and c.£20m of new leases
- In todays Trading Update, the £40m of cash capital expenditure and c.£20m of new leases has since been increased by +£14 million, which is a positive sign

My guess is the extra (or reinstated) £14m capital expenditure is buying buses another Operator has cancelled (hence quick delivery)

The Guildford-Kingston 715 route has to get newer (or emission upgraded) buses as it enters the expanded London ULEZ from October. It is limited to single decks due to low bridges, so might be part of order.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I think these are just standard E400MMCs rather than SH models as they don't have the additional grill on the offside rear corner.

Steven Knight Media says nothing about them being hybrid's and a quick check on the DVLA website confirms they're standard.

You're right, my mistake. Post edited. Although, I don't think DVLA states if they're Hybrid or not? Happily stand corrected, mind.

 

[37114]

Are these additional vehicles likely to be anything other than ADL (bodywork at least) though? Wright's were barely back operational when Covid hit and Optare were focussed on the battery double deckers, and of course ADL were Stagecoach supplier of choice. The interesting question will be if they are ADL chassis or Scania or as an outside curveball Volvo? Lothian were looking at ADL bodied Volvo's so could be an option.

 

[cnjb8]

Are these additional vehicles likely to be anything other than ADL (bodywork at least) though? Wright's were barely back operational when Covid hit and Optare were focussed on the battery double deckers, and of course ADL were Stagecoach supplier of choice. The interesting question will be if they are ADL chassis or Scania or as an outside curveball Volvo? Lothian were looking at ADL bodied Volvo's so could be an option.

That's very unlikely. Stagecoach are likely to want to keep it simple, so will order integrals. But, Lothian have placed an order for ADL bodied Volvo's.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

That's very unlikely. Stagecoach are likely to want to keep it simple, so will order integrals. But, Lothian have placed an order for ADL bodied Volvo's.

Remember that East Scotland also have 2 batches of Dennis-bodied Volvo B5LHs

 

[Jordan Adam]

Remember that East Scotland also have 2 batches of Dennis-bodied Volvo B5LHs

To be pedantic wouldn't that be Alexander-Bodied seeing as Dennis built chassis .

 

[Tetchytyke]

To be pedantic wouldn't that be Alexander-Bodied seeing as Dennis built chassis .

The bus builder is called Alexander Dennis, so the other post is accurate.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The bus builder is called Alexander Dennis, so the other post is accurate.

As someone of advancing years, it seems increasingly difficult to keep tabs. It's like Pointer bodied Darts - I just uniformly refer to them as Plaxton bodied and Dennis chassis, rather than the various Transbus or ADL incarnations.

 

[Jordan Adam]

The bus builder is called Alexander Dennis, so the other post is accurate.

You missed the point/sarcasm I was making there...

As someone of advancing years, it seems increasingly difficult to keep tabs. It's like Pointer bodied Darts - I just uniformly refer to them as Plaxton bodied and Dennis chassis, rather than the various Transbus or ADL incarnations.

The chassis to this day are still produced at the former Dennis site in Guildford, while the bodywork is built at either Falkirk (Alexanders) or Scarbourgh (Plaxton).

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The chassis to this day are still produced at the former Dennis site in Guildford, while the bodywork is built at either Falkirk (Alexanders) or Scarbourgh (Plaxton).

Indeed - some of the last vestiges of an industry.

 

[winston270twm]

We will still be able to compare it! You would have thought that the losses may not be too bad after services were reduced and additional Government funding was available.

The Stagecoach Announcement is far more upbeat than First Group's was, no mention of 'material uncertainties' from them. There's even prospects of them entering new markets in Sweden & Dubai.

Liberium Capital have tipped them as a buy:

UK | BUSINESS SERVICES, BUILDING, LEISURE & TRAVEL | TRANSPORT | SGC LN | MARKET CAP £278m | 22 July 2020^
Stagecoach

FY results ahead, management expects lasting COVID-19 impact

BUY
Target price 100p | Published price 50p

The FY results were not as bad as feared, beating both our forecasts and consensus. As expected, London Bus has been supported by its contractual structures and government financial support for Regional Bus has seen the group remain cash generative, despite lockdown. Liquidity remains strong and covenant waivers are in place for the next year. However, management’s outlook is very cautious, anticipating a lasting impact from COVID-19 on local travel patterns. If correct, this would undermine the central argument of our investment case. We believe management is too pessimistic, but the level of uncertainty is unprecedented.

Results headlines (year to April)
PBT (normalised) £90.9m (-32% YoY, vs. Liberum £86.1m, consensus £81.4m),

EPS (continuing, normalised) 13.5p (-30% YoY, vs. Liberum 12.8p, consensus 11.7p),

DPS 3.8p (-51% YoY, vs. Liberum 3.8p, consensus 3.8p),

Net debt £352.1m (vs. £253m last year pre-IFRS 16, Liberum £358.8m, consensus £410.7m).

Results not quite as bad as feared
The results for the year to April were ahead of consensus and our forecasts. As previously flagged, there was no final dividend. Compared with our forecasts, Regional Bus was light but more than offset by better than expected outturns at London Bus, Virgin Rail (franchises now ended) and central costs. The fall in profits reflects the COVID-19 impact at the tail end of the year in Regional Bus, along with the end of the group’s rail franchises.

Exceptional items were £49.6m, including asset impairments and onerous contract charges of £16.5m, surplus fuel hedging of £12.9m and a £17.8m impairment of the deferred payment instrument related to the sold North American operations.

Management expects a lasting impact on travel demand
Management is giving no guidance for the current year. However, it does expect a lasting impact on travel demand on COVID-19, through increases in remote working, home shopping and education and telemedicine. This is significantly more pessimistic than our assumptions. If Stagecoach is correct, it would completely undermine our positive investment case.

Stagecoach’s financial position remains strong, with positive cash flow continuing, current liquidity of £840m, and adjusted liquidity of £599m after deducting rail liabilities that have yet to be settled and facilities expiring in October 2021. As previously disclosed, banking covenant waivers have been agreed for the next two tests, so they will not now be tested again until October 2021.

We expect a full earnings recovery, although the timing of transition remains uncertain
Stagecoach has been cash generative through the most challenging lockdown phase of this crisis. Our investment base assumes that modest cash generation continues in the transition back to normal as government support is phased out gradually, and there is no material impact to the long-term earnings capacity of the group. The initial government funding for the bus industry has been supplemented by a second package that runs until mid-August, alongside a revised furlough scheme that runs until October. The arrangements beyond August have yet to be confirmed, but we remain confident of continued government support for however long it takes for activity to return to normal.

We understand why there is debate and scepticism about what the new normal looks like. In fairness, no one knows. In contrast to Stagecoach’s management, we do not anticipate a material persistent reduction in bus use in the long term. The majority of jobs are not suited to remote working, especially those in the lower half of the pay scale which we believe non-London bus passengers are skewed towards. There is also not enough road space or car parking capacity to accommodate a major shift to private car use. If anything, road space is going to fall again as more is allocated to cycling. Climate change and clean air policies are not going to be reversed, and these objectives cannot withstand a sustained increase in car use. In any case, a large proportion of bus users do not have access to a car.

If a full recovery is achieved, which is assumed in our current published forecasts, an April 2022E P/E of 3.5x and EV/EBITDA of 2.4x appear unduly pessimistic (vs. five-year averages of 11.0x and 5.6x, respectively). Our recommendation remains BUY with a SOTP-based target price of 100p.

Figure 1: Summary valuation (pre-results)

Valuation (year to Apr) 2019A​ 2020E​ 2021E​ 2022E​ P/E (x) 2.3​ 3.9​ 7.4​ 3.5​ Div Yield (%) 15.3​ 7.5​ 0.0​ 15.3​ FCFE Yield (%) 22.7​ 18.9​ 14.1​ 15.3​ EV/Sales (x) 0.3​ 0.5​ 0.6​ 0.4​ EV/EBITDA (x) 2.2​ 3.3​ 3.4​ 2.4​ EV/EBIT (x) 3.9​ 6.3​ 8.6​ 4.6​

Source: Company data, Liberum estimates

Figure 2: Summary financials (pre-results)

Financials (year to Apr) 2019A​ 2020E​ 2021E​ 2022E​ Revenue (£m) 1879​ 1376​ 1167​ 1400​ Adj. EBITDA (£m) 269.4​ 213.2​ 188.9​ 241.3​ margin (%) 11.5​ 15.5​ 16.2​ 17.2​ Adj. EBIT (£m) 138.0​ 101.3​ 74.8​ 123.7​ margin (%) 5.9​ 7.4​ 6.4​ 8.8​ Adj. PBT (£m) 132.9​ 86.1​ 47.2​ 98.5​ Adj. EPS (p) 22.1​ 12.8​ 6.9​ 14.4​ DPS (p) 7.7​ 3.8​ 0.0​ 7.7​ Net Debt (£m) 253.3​ 358.8​ 333.5​ 305.2​

Source: Company data, Liberum estimates

 

[83G/84D]

More news from Stagecoach Group, on how they are adapting during the recent difficult times:-

Stagecoach tries to innovate as bus passenger numbers fall

By Douglas FraserBusiness and economy editor, Scotland



Bus operator Stagecoach has warned investors that passenger numbers may not return for years.

The Perth-based transport company has set out wide-ranging innovations to bring people on board.

The operator is looking overseas to diversify, with bids to take over services in Dubai and Sweden, as a way to rely less on the UK bus industry.

Stagecoach ended its railway operations following a disagreement over terms with the UK Government.

Its warning about long-term reduced passenger numbers follows the steep decline with the introduction of lockdown, while it has been subsidised by governments to keep services running for key workers.

Looking ahead, it forecasts permanent shifts in customer behaviour that will mean less bus travel, including an increase in home-working, more tele-medicine meaning fewer hospital visits, more shopping from home and increased home education.



Innovation in Stagecoach bus services has been accelerated by the health crisis, with pilot contracts in the English Midlands to run services which are only for NHS staff.

It is also trialling on-demand services through an app, online or phone, for NHS workers as well as for smaller communities in the Tees Valley area.

With employer concerns about safety of staff returning to work after lockdown, Stagecoach managers see an opportunity to run more special services for companies.

That has begun this year working with Sellafield nuclear site in Cumbria. It is to be expanded to Aberdeen City Council and Kent University from next month.

On its standard public services, Stagecoach is looking to deals with employers which offer reduced fares for their staff.

Coronavirus: Stagecoach and FirstGroup count the cost

It has stepped up its use of contactless and digital advance payments, with 46% of transactions now carried out that way.

And the bus firm is planning more use of price-capping for card payments - a process already used by Lothian Transport, which means that multiple journeys in one day or one week carry a maximum charge.

Research for Stagecoach found that simplifying fares can lead to an improved perception of value for money, and makes people more likely to travel by bus. Some 69% of those taking part in a survey said that they find bus services confusing, and more than a third said they would use them more if that changed.

The firm is stepping up marketing and advertising beyond local markets to boost the company's national profile.

Stagecoach is working with the Falkirk bus builder Alexander Dennis to develop autonomous bus technology, to reduce costs in depots, and with the first regular route planned for later this year across the Forth Road Bridge.

'Ready and committed'

In its annual results, the company reported income was down from £1.878bn to £1.417bn, with pre-tax profits falling form £133m to £91m. The figures were affected by both the lockdown and by the loss of its West Coast rail franchise from December.

Martin Griffiths, the chief executive, commented: "Despite recent events, it is critical that all partners continue to work together to prioritise better mobility, maintain the cleaner air and take action to protect the future of our planet as part of the plan for global recovery. We are ready and committed to play our part".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53501738

 

[overthewater]

Stagecoach has done a Lothian and introduced a new bundle deal AKA "Flexi day 5" for dayriders in Manchester IE 5 dayriders for the price of 4. HOWEVER stagecoach has still kept the proper weekly and monthly tickets so not to pee off the other customers.

Stagecoach’s ‘Flexi 5’ helps flexible workers

www.passengertransport.co.uk

 

[GusB]

Stagecoach launches new rewards scheme to support ‘staycations’

Stagecoach launches new rewards scheme to support ‘staycations’

Stagecoach has announced the launch of a new customer rewards scheme to help support ‘staycations,’ with special offers right across the country in the leisure sector including visitor attractions, places to eat out and hotels. [...]

cbwmagazine.com

Stagecoach has announced the launch of a new customer rewards scheme to help support ‘staycations,’ with special offers right across the country in the leisure sector including visitor attractions, places to eat out and hotels.

The new scheme, Stagecoach Rewards, will provide exclusive discounts to bus customers to encourage people to return to the things they enjoyed doing before the pandemic. The scheme will support local attractions and also retailers, with each of Stagecoach’s 17 regions regularly seeing new local offers as well as a range of discounts for national visitor attractions.

The launch of the new rewards scheme is designed to encourage people to make use of their local attractions, enjoy staycations and use sustainable and easy public transport for their journeys.

...

Stagecoach Rewards Page: https://www.stagecoachbus.com/promos-and-offers/national/stagecoach-rewards#

 

[Megafuss]

A fire has broken out at the Stagecoach depot in Cambridge

Staff evacuated and trains cancelled as fire breaks out in bus depot

The entire road is closed

www.cambridge-news.co.uk

 

[Scotrail314209]

Hi all,

I'm doing the M11 tomorrow night from Glasgow - Victoria (the 22:45 departure) and I've noticed there is a Panther on the 11:00 departure today. I'm doing the Northbound 22:30 departure on the Friday.

Does anyone know how to find out on the day or is it just a case of what's allocated. I really don't fancy being crammed into a Panther for that length of time.

 

[route101]

Hi all,

I'm doing the M11 tomorrow night from Glasgow - Victoria (the 22:45 departure) and I've noticed there is a Panther on the 11:00 departure today. I'm doing the Northbound 22:30 departure on the Friday.

Does anyone know how to find out on the day or is it just a case of what's allocated. I really don't fancy being crammed into a Panther for that length of time.

Hopefully you don't get a panther. I notice how narrow the aisles are on them, plus they are nosier than a double deck. I remember it was mostly panthers on megabus services.

After feb when I took overnight I vowed not to take the overnight coaches to London and go by train.

 

[David Verity]

Stagecoach turns 40 - Bus & Coach Buyer

Stagecoach today (9 October) marks 40 years of serving its communities and connecting people across the UK. Sir Brian Souter and his sister, Dame Ann Gloag, founded Stagecoach in 1980, and over the past four decades Stagecoach has rolled out its services in the UK and around the world including...

www.busandcoachbuyer.com

Scroll down for the link to a poster/placemat/dartboard; no pictures of the new yellow coach livery.

 

[Jordan Adam]

Hopefully you don't get a panther. I notice how narrow the aisles are on them, plus they are nosier than a double deck. I remember it was mostly panthers on megabus services.

After feb when I took overnight I vowed not to take the overnight coaches to London and go by train.

That's a good thing? The B13RTs sound fantastic!

 

[route101]

That's a good thing? The B13RTs sound fantastic!

I remember everytime the coach slowed down you would hear it! Quieter on a double deck coach upstairs.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Panther 54122 going down on the 11:00 M11 again. Second day in a row 54122 has been on that service, is it covering for an unavailable coach?

 

[route101]

Panther 54122 going down on the 11:00 M11 again. Second day in a row 54122 has been on that service, is it covering for an unavailable coach?

How do you find out the bus info? Is there a tracker?

 

[Scotrail314209]

How do you find out the bus info? Is there a tracker?

Bustimes.com is good for tracking it, not all the Megabus vehicles show up nor do they have a route, but if you check for a specific bus every so often, it'll come up. You can follow it's location by checking it's route history.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

A lot of the Megabus vehicle don't have the correct fleet number on their ticket machine. 54122 is actually a Panorama IIRC.

 

[Scotrail314209]

A lot of the Megabus vehicle don't have the correct fleet number on their ticket machine. 54122 is actually a Panorama IIRC.

Well... that actually puts my mind at rest as the thought of all those hours on a Panther was not giving me good faith.

Currently on the 22:45 from Glasgow to Victoria, currently somewhere just north of Birmingham.

Good experience on 50406 so far, however I’m finding it increasingly difficult to get some sleep due to the rattling and the temperature onboard.

Has anyone else had the same experience?

On another positive note, these drivers are absolutely gunning it down the M6 so far.