Suggestions for HS2 Eastern Arm

[Shrop]

I wonder if it’s time for a further discussion on the Eastern Arm of HS2?

The proposed journey times for HS2 from Birmingham have long been 49 minutes to both London and Leeds. However, the fastest journey time from Birmingham to London was 73 minutes some years ago, and so will be reduced by just 24 minutes, while to Leeds it is presently 117 minutes, so the reduction would be a vastly greater 68 minutes.

Can anyone provide a reasonably accurate cost estimate for the respective sections, ie London to Birmingham, and Birmingham to Leeds?

Readers might quickly defend the higher cost of the Chiltern section for its much smaller time saving benefits, however view that may be biased a little too heavily on existing London-centric travel, with too little focus on the benefits of linking northern cities. This could be worth further discussion among those who may have a useful input ...

 

[Ianno87]

Readers might quickly defend the higher cost of the Chiltern section for its much smaller time saving benefits,

Because the time saving is a by-product of the southern end of HS2. The real benefit of the Chiltern section is the capacity uplift into London.

however view that may be biased a little too heavily on existing London-centric travel, with too little focus on the benefits of linking northern cities. This could be worth further discussion among those who may have a useful input ...

North of Birmingham, the benefit is less the capacity uplift, but more the transformational effect on the current (relatively poor) journey times from Birmingham to Leeds (and Manchester).

 

[Dr Hoo]

The "73 minute" journey from Birmingham to London was achieved by one non-stop train in one direction and incompatible with the general WCML timetable/stopping pattern.

Whereas the 49 minutes would be a standard timing via HS2.

Let's at least start this thread with some meaningful comparisons.

 

[matacaster]

As a general point which may be considered a bit off-topic, but I think is relevant. Most large schemes have tended to start in London and have often been gold-plated both in terms of rail and associated infrastructure. Trouble is, when they overspend as is nearly always the case, the money around London has already been spent, so the extremities suffer the cutbacks. Such cutbacks are reduction in capacity, reduced scope, longer journey times and budget stations etc (look at the difference in spending on virtually any London station to Leeds). In another direction , look at GWML or MML - electrification peters out at extremity and is considered not urgent. Its even worse as for example the overspend in Crossrail appears to have resulted in a budget cut oop North. Thus, the only way to fix this is to start at the extremities (or at least midway between and working in both directions from there).

The time from Leeds to Birmingham is so much better with the proposed eastern leg principally because its so bad now. The journey is tortuous, the trains should be around twice the length they are. Many journeys in West and South Yorkshire are pathetically slow and its no wonder people take the car. Even the successful TPE route is not very fast (hence TP Upgrade and NPR) but that's because the M62 is a nightmare. The reason is lack of investment, although the HS2 eastern leg if it goes ahead may suck what money is available away from the very slow, but essential more local routes. Its only recently that we have had sufficient capacity on TPE something that was always an easy fix as it just required more rolling stock.

 

[Ianno87]

(look at the difference in spending on virtually any London station to Leeds).

You mean the Leeds station that received a major remodelling and expansion in 2000, and is now being expanded again?

In another direction , look at GWML or MML - electrification peters out at extremity and is considered not urgent.

That is If you ignore Liverpool/Manchester/Preston/Blackpool electrification, particularly via Bolton which saw the light of day in spite of a never ending series of challenges, delays and unexpected extra costs.

Its even worse as for example the overspend in Crossrail appears to have resulted in a budget cut oop North. Thus, the only way to fix this is to start at the extremities (or at least midway between and working in both directions from there).

No, because you get no benefits from doing the extremities without doing the core sections.

 

[quantinghome]

I wonder if it’s time for a further discussion on the Eastern Arm of HS2?

The proposed journey times for HS2 from Birmingham have long been 49 minutes to both London and Leeds. However, the fastest journey time from Birmingham to London was 73 minutes some years ago, and so will be reduced by just 24 minutes, while to Leeds it is presently 117 minutes, so the reduction would be a vastly greater 68 minutes.

Can anyone provide a reasonably accurate cost estimate for the respective sections, ie London to Birmingham, and Birmingham to Leeds?

Readers might quickly defend the higher cost of the Chiltern section for its much smaller time saving benefits, however view that may be biased a little too heavily on existing London-centric travel, with too little focus on the benefits of linking northern cities. This could be worth further discussion among those who may have a useful input ...

It's not just Leeds-Birmingham which would see a transformational improvement in journey time. Also:

>1 hour reduction:
Leeds - East Midlands
North-east and York - East Midlands
North-east and York - Birmingham

>30 minute reduction:
Leeds - London (actually closer to an hour reduction)
Sheffield - London
East Midlands - London
North-east and York - London

The Eastern arm transforms the business case for HS2 because you relieve three main lines (four if you count XC), not just one, and as you can see above it provides a huge benefit to a large number of journeys. And that's before the benefits it provides by building parts of NPR. It's madness to even think about cutting it.

 

[ainsworth74]

but more the transformational effect on the current (relatively poor) journey times from Birmingham to Leeds

Absolutely! I don't travel it very often but each time I do a journey from Darlington to Birmingham you fly down the ECML to York, make good progress to Leeds and Wakefield. Then turn off and stagger onto Sheffield. Make reasonable progress to Derby on the MML and then stagger onto Birmingham. The thought of that journey going from just shy of two hours (most do it in around 1hr 55min) for Leeds to Birmingham (so three hours from Darlington, though you can save some time on the via Doncaster services) to 50 minutes for Leeds to Birmingham (and an hour and twenty for Darlington Birmingham) is, frankly, slightly mind bending. Certainly it's unbelievable transformative. For instance, who is going to drive from Leeds to Birmingham anymore when the train takes fifty minutes?

 

[Shrop]

The "73 minute" journey from Birmingham to London was achieved by one non-stop train in one direction and incompatible with the general WCML timetable/stopping pattern.

Whereas the 49 minutes would be a standard timing via HS2.

Let's at least start this thread with some meaningful comparisons.

The time savings to Leeds even when comparing with the stopping services to London, is still vastly greater. Did you have any info on the relative costs that I asked about?

The real benefit of the Chiltern section is the capacity uplift into London.

That's my point. Does the UK's greatest need for transport (and economic) improvement lie in providing yet more capacity into London, the need for which has been reduced due to Covid which may have permanently reduced demand due to alternative ways of working, or does it lie in the encouragement of links between several new city pairs, which the Eastern Arm would achieve?

 

[37424]

The time savings to Leeds even when comparing with the stopping services to London, is still vastly greater. Did you have any info on the relative costs that I asked about?


That's my point. Does the UK's greatest need for transport (and economic) improvement lie in providing yet more capacity into London, the need for which has been reduced due to Covid which may have permanently reduced demand due to alternative ways of working, or does it lie in the encouragement of links between several new city pairs, which the Eastern Arm would achieve?

Well there is no doubt the reduction in journey times between the Midlands and the North offer a tremendous improvement, but your saying maybe they more important than the links to London, well perhaps they should be but in reality they are only really happening as a bonus benefit of the link to London.

Also the lack of a HS2 link to South West from Birmingham may well be seen as a significant shortcoming of HS2, being able to run classic compatibles onward from Birmingham to Bristol and Cardiff using an upgraded and electrified mainline to Bristol/Cardiff might be seen as a bigger regional benefit to HS2 and make it seem less London centric.

The idea that if you want to get from Leeds to Bristol you either get through train which takes 2 hours to get to Birmingham or take a train to Birmingham which takes 50 mins and walk to New Street Station for a train to Bristol does seem a little strange, but then your adding more cost and complexity to HS2.

 

[HSTEd]

That's my point. Does the UK's greatest need for transport (and economic) improvement lie in providing yet more capacity into London, the need for which has been reduced due to Covid which may have permanently reduced demand due to alternative ways of working, or does it lie in the encouragement of links between several new city pairs, which the Eastern Arm would achieve?

Yes, I'm afraid it does.

We live in the era of the megacity, they are by far the greatest economic engines ever concieved by man.
And the larger they are, the most potent they become.

The ultimate objective of a sensible UK transport/economic policy is to improve the transport links to and from the South East of England until such time, in the distant future, that Great Britain and London become synonymous.

 

[Envoy]

All well & good having improved transport links to London but it is also important to have excellent links across the UK without going to/from London. It is a great pity that Cheltenham & points south west - including the major cities of Cardiff & Bristol, will not have a direct link to HS2 Eastern arm at Birmingham. They totally underestimated the amount of people travelling around the country & not going to/from London when they ordered the inadequate Voyager fleet.

Cardiff & Edinburgh - do not have a direct train service that would also incorporate several English towns/cities such as Hereford, Shrewsbury, Preston, Lancaster & Carlisle.
Neither does Bristol and the SW have a direct train service to Edinburgh and Glasgow that uses the shorter west coast route from Birmingham. (They take the slow route via Sheffield, Leeds and Newcastle which takes about an hour longer). Presumably they won’t have a link either with HS2 Western arm from Birmingham.

 

[Verulamius]

Crayons out.

I think that a redesigned east midlands hub at Toton would work. You would have a combined HS2 and local station, with ability for HS2 to join the local tracks, and vice versa, after stoping at the hub in both directions.

I would also include a new south/east curve at Trowell Jn (just north of Toton) so that HS2 trains can leave HS2 going north and terminate at Nottingham.

This enables the branch linking HS2 towards Chesterfield to be dropped, as trains would be able to leave HS2 at the east midlands hub to continue north to Chesterfield and Sheffield. Slower timings to Sheffield, but could improve timings on the existing railway?

The local-HS2 going north link would enable the Bedford to Leeds train to join HS2 at the hub, as well as trains from Nottingham/Derby (having accessed the hub from the south).

This would provide significant flexibility.

Crayons back in box.

 

[gerryuk]

When will we officially know if the Eastern route through Sheffield gets the go ahead, or is scrapped?

 

[Llandudno]

When will we officially know if the Eastern route through Sheffield gets the go ahead, or is scrapped?

I won’t believe anything I am told until there is actual evidence of spades in the ground north of Toton.

 

[snowball]

When will we officially know if the Eastern route through Sheffield gets the go ahead, or is scrapped?

The government's Integrated Rail Plan is supposedly due to be published this month and is allegedly going to tell us the government's decisions on a lot of questions about HS2 and NPR. I doubt it will end the arguing, though.

 

[miami]

It is a great pity that Cheltenham & points south west - including the major cities of Cardiff & Bristol, will not have a direct link to HS2 Eastern arm at Birmingham

It is, ultimately though you can't build to every region at the same time. I do think that a branch from Interchange or Curzon Street south west to Bristol and Cardiff should be progressed alongside NPR after phase 2B - it ticks the "union" box Johnson wants to tick, and would allow high capacity high speed trains from Bristol-Birmingham-North (East and West), as well as extending on existing track to Swansea and Plymouth.


Something like 5tph

1tp2h Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Manchester
1tp2h Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Leeds

1tp2h Swansea-Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Curzon Street
1tp2h Swansea-Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Crewe-Chester-Holyhead

1tp2h Cardiff--Bristol--Interchange-Crewe-Westcoast-Glasgow
1tp2h Cardiff--Bristol--Interchange-Toton-Eastcoast-Edinburgh

1tph Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Gloucester parkway-Interchange-Curzon Street
1tp2h Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Interchange-Westcoast-Glasgow
1tp2h Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Interchange-Eastcoast-Edinburgh

 

[Purple Orange]

The government's Integrated Rail Plan is supposedly due to be published this month and is allegedly going to tell us the government's decisions on a lot of questions about HS2 and NPR. I doubt it will end the arguing, though.

It needs to be definitive. I.e. not leave open questions about particular routes. Even so, there will be people who disagree with what it plans, but either case it must be decisive. I think the government will commit to the eastern leg of HS2 and NPR, doing it in several phases.

 

[edwin_m]

It needs to be definitive. I.e. not leave open questions about particular routes. Even so, there will be people who disagree with what it plans, but either case it must be decisive. I think the government will commit to the eastern leg of HS2 and NPR, doing it in several phases.

As mentioned above, you can't do everything at once. So it may be that some things are high or low priority, and low priority could in practice mean never. But it's important that there is a workable and beneficial network at each phase, and as far as possible each one doesn't make it more difficult to move onto the next, or accommodate a change in priorities which means something different needs to be done instead.

 

[quantinghome]

It is, ultimately though you can't build to every region at the same time. I do think that a branch from Interchange or Curzon Street south west to Bristol and Cardiff should be progressed alongside NPR after phase 2B - it ticks the "union" box Johnson wants to tick, and would allow high capacity high speed trains from Bristol-Birmingham-North (East and West), as well as extending on existing track to Swansea and Plymouth.


Something like 5tph

1tp2h Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Manchester
1tp2h Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Leeds

1tp2h Swansea-Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Curzon Street
1tp2h Swansea-Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Crewe-Chester-Holyhead

1tp2h Cardiff--Bristol--Interchange-Crewe-Westcoast-Glasgow
1tp2h Cardiff--Bristol--Interchange-Toton-Eastcoast-Edinburgh

1tph Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Gloucester parkway-Interchange-Curzon Street
1tp2h Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Interchange-Westcoast-Glasgow
1tp2h Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Interchange-Eastcoast-Edinburgh

Why route via interchange? You would be duplicating all the services going North from Curzon St.

Why route everything from Wales via Bristol? It's a massive dogleg.

Just take the planned services from the North to Curzon Street and extend them to either Cardiff and Swansea or Bristol and the South-West.

 

[Purple Orange]

As mentioned above, you can't do everything at once. So it may be that some things are high or low priority, and low priority could in practice mean never. But it's important that there is a workable and beneficial network at each phase, and as far as possible each one doesn't make it more difficult to move onto the next, or accommodate a change in priorities which means something different needs to be done instead.

Yes and the overall scheme could go on to well after 2040. Some phases might be able to run concurrently, but not many.

Just take the planned services from the North to Curzon Street and extend them to either Cardiff and Swansea or Bristol and the South-West.

How?

 

[HSTEd]

Why route everything from Wales via Bristol? It's a massive dogleg.

If there was to be a new line out of Birmingham in a SW direction, it will still thrash staying on the classic tracks, even if it goes all the way to Bristol before heading to Cardiff.

The trains will eat up five kilometres of track every single minute after all.

My attempts to work out a practical connection end up with a massive 20km long line through the South Birmingham suburbs, with all trains going via Interchange. Join the existing line somewhere in the vicintiy of the Lickey Incline.

There don't appear to be many better options.

 

[CW2]

The whole "how do we serve the Sheffield area" saga is not an easy one. Putting the HS2 main line via central Sheffield would be very expensive, and hugely disruptive to the existing railway, but would provide the greatest benefit to Sheffield itself. The original planned station at Meadowhall was a compromise in that it was a location on the preferred through route to Leeds which could serve as a railhead for the entire South Yorkshire region - including Sheffield, Rotherham, and Doncaster. The local machinations of the Sheffield City Council saw Meadowhall scrapped and a new route devised through South Yorkshire, but with a promise that SHeffield would get its own HS2 trains serving the existing Midland station. So instead of SHeffield being served by through trains to Leeds / Newcastle (as would have been the case at Meadowhall) now it has its own dedicated trains to/from Euston, possibly linking up with other sets at Toton. All this at a time when Euston is being downgraded, so the number of trains capable of running on the final HS2 will have to be lower than 18.
So the politicians of SHeffield think they have won a great prize by getting Meadowhall HS2 station scrapped, but they might just have made it impossible to provide Sheffield with a decent service at all.

If there was to be a new line out of Birmingham in a SW direction, it will still thrash staying on the classic tracks, even if it goes all the way to Bristol before heading to Cardiff.

The trains will eat up five kilometres of track every single minute after all.

My attempts to work out a practical connection end up with a massive 20km long line through the South Birmingham suburbs, with all trains going via Interchange. Join the existing line somewhere in the vicintiy of the Lickey Incline.

There don't appear to be many better options.

Link HS2 to the classic lines in the vicinity of Saltley.

 

[Purple Orange]

If there was to be a new line out of Birmingham in a SW direction, it will still thrash staying on the classic tracks, even if it goes all the way to Bristol before heading to Cardiff.

The trains will eat up five kilometres of track every single minute after all.

My attempts to work out a practical connection end up with a massive 20km long line through the South Birmingham suburbs, with all trains going via Interchange. Join the existing line somewhere in the vicintiy of the Lickey Incline.

There don't appear to be many better options.

What if south western trains didn’t go through Birmingham? Other than NPR and MER, which is not going to be ‘High Speed’ in the same sense as HS2 due to short distances, future high speed extensions will need to be a decent length equivalent to phase 2a or 2b branches. So, why not have a junction south of Birmingham Interchange that heads in the direction of Oxford, then splitting to provide an alternative route to London and a route towards Bristol?

 

[HSTEd]

What if south western trains didn’t go through Birmingham? Other than NPR and MER, which is not going to be ‘High Speed’ in the same sense as HS2 due to short distances, future high speed extensions will need to be a decent length equivalent to phase 2a or 2b branches. So, why not have a junction south of Birmingham Interchange that heads in the direction of Oxford, then splitting to provide an alternative route to London and a route towards Bristol?

Rather fewer people live in that direction though than live down the Severn Valley.
We are unlikely to need a second line in the direction of Birmingham from London in the near future.

If you want a new high speed line of significant length, the obvious answer is just to go all the way to Bristol.

 

[quantinghome]

If there was to be a new line out of Birmingham in a SW direction, it will still thrash staying on the classic tracks, even if it goes all the way to Bristol before heading to Cardiff.

If you're getting to Cardiff on the classic network rather than a new build line then I guess a junction with the GWML would be quickest route. If 'all the way to Bristol' means a stop at Bristol Parkway that's fine, but I can't see the point of going to Temple Meads then on to Cardiff.

 

[miami]

Cardiff-Bristol-Birmingham Interchange is 104 miles, 13% longer than Cardiff-Interchange directly. The Birstol-Interchange leg is about the same length as OOC-Interchange, so should take 32 minutes. Cardiff-Bristol is 25 miles, which shouldn't take more than 15 minutes.

Currently it's a 2 hour trip from Cardiff-Birmingham direct, and 1h20 from Bristol-Birmingham. That would halve with new track all the way. If you're going to reuse the track though then sure, join further north near Worcester and split through Gloucester.

New track would need a new high speed tunnel under the Severn which might be more expensive than a parallel high speed overland route from Cardiff to Gloucester and Bristol to Gloucester, however by running from Cardiff-Bristol it would allow twice as many trains, as well as linking Bristol and Cardiff far more quickly, allowing the benefits that well-linked areas form (it would be as quick and frequent to get from central cardiff to central bristol as it is to get from Tokyo to Yokahama)

None of this would make economic sense, but that's not the only criteria.

 

[Purple Orange]

Rather fewer people live in that direction though than live down the Severn Valley.
We are unlikely to need a second line in the direction of Birmingham from London in the near future.

If you want a new high speed line of significant length, the obvious answer is just to go all the way to Bristol.

It wouldn’t be a second line to Birmingham, but rather a line connecting to the GWML, with a triangular junction east and east of Didcot.

I.e. a junction from HS2 near Brackley, north of Bicester that runs to Oxford, then from Oxford the line joins the GWML. Perhaps you’d then have for example Leeds or Manchester running to Bham Interchange, then on to Oxford, Swindon, Bristol Parkway then Cardiff or Bristol TM.

The journey from Manchester to Bristol takes 3 hours and Leeds to Bristol takes 3 hrs 30 mins. It takes 40 mins and 45 mins to Manchester & Leeds respectively. Didcot to Bristol takes 56 mins. Therefore a link from north of Bicester to the Didcot area with a stop at Oxford (a distance of 31 miles) needs to take 79 minutes to achieve timings better than today - an average of 23 miles per hour on that stretch. If the line achieved speeds of 80 mph, the stretch could be done in under 25 mins. That would be a 2 hour - 2 hr10min journey time and faster than changing in a run to the classic line. If there was a simple link to the tracks through New Street, the total journey time would be similar, but you’d be taking up a path that could go in to Curzon Street.

 

[krus_aragon]

1tp2h Swansea-Cardiff--Bristol--Gloucester parkway--Interchange-Crewe-Chester-Holyhead

This one feels a little odd to me.

Granted, the current route from Swansea to Holyhead already strays over the border for a sedate 5 1/2 hour journey (plus changes), but there won't be any speed upgrades over Swansea-Cardiff (currently ~1hr with GWR) or Crewe-Holyhead (2hr with Avanti). Taking a spitball figure for Cardiff-Birmingham-Crewe HS of 1 hour, that'd make a four-hour end-to-end journey, but the rolling stock would spend three quarters of its time off the high-speed network.

 

[HSTEd]

New track would need a new high speed tunnel under the Severn which might be more expensive than a parallel high speed overland route from Cardiff to Gloucester and Bristol to Gloucester, however by running from Cardiff-Bristol it would allow twice as many trains, as well as linking Bristol and Cardiff far more quickly, allowing the benefits that well-linked areas form (it would be as quick and frequent to get from central cardiff to central bristol as it is to get from Tokyo to Yokahama)

I very very much doubt it.
The tunnel/bridge would easily be the cheaper option.
Indeed I might expect an immersed tube tunnel to come ashore as close to Cardiff as possible to reduce the on-land length.

 

[miami]

This one feels a little odd to me.

Crayonistic, but it would be more about Union building than a useful service. Claiming that north and south wales is connected via high speed rail wins political brownie points in the same way extending HS2 up the WCML towards Glasgow would. The idea being to counter the narrative that HS2 (or High Speed in general) is a London only thing.