• Dear Guest, and welcome to RailUK Forums. Our non-railway discussion forums are currently restricted until members have five or more posts, and you will not be able to make a new thread or reply to an existing one in this section until you have made five or more posts elsewhere on the forum.

Super Thursday - Elections 2021

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
14,167
For a general election there's heaps of info about, but the local candidates round here don't really have much of an online presence. whocanivotefor.co.uk is a useful resource but half the candidates here have no info about them. I'll always put a piece of paper in the ballot box but I'd ideally like to know what I'm actually voting for before putting a cross in the box, but maybe I'm not the typical voter.

In 2017 my local ward was only won by a majority of <200 (from nearly 4000 votes) so it's hardly a safe area either.

Did a quick Google of my local council candidates last night and found....nothing.

The local Mayoral election candidates, however, had full manifestos etc.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

ainsworth74

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
16 Nov 2009
Messages
23,605
Location
Redcar
Sadly I suspect the Tories will win hartlepooh and retain the Tees Valley mayoralty. So many people just don't want to look at the truth around them.. I am sure @ainsworth74 will have the gen

Oh yeah. Houchen (the incumbent Tory mayor) will, I suspect, win it in a landslide (saved the airport dontcha know!). I wouldn't be surprised if he gets it on first preference votes. But can anyone really be surprised? The Government have showered money on the region and he's been able (rightly or wrongly) to attach his name to that funding. Things like the Freeport status for Teesport (which I'm extremely dubious about but gets great play as being the thing that will bring huge numbers of jobs to Teesside), the funding for Teesworks (which so far has only managed to knock buildings down rather than building anything new), the play around turning Teesside into a "hydrogen hub" for transport, getting the Treasury to site their northern campus at Darlington, etc etc have all played very well. Whilst I'm deeply cynical about the fact that Teesside has had high levels of (and continues to have) deprivation for decades and it's only in the last year or two that we've seen any significant attention since we started voting Tory (I'm sure that's unrelated though...) I can certainly see why Houchen is likely to get re-elected.

As for Hartlepool I would say it's probably the Tories to lose. I wouldn't be stunned if Labour retained it but I would be pleasantly surprised. It's a similar dynamic to that which is playing out for the wider Mayoralty. The Tories are seen to be getting things done for Teesside whilst Labour are still seen to be struggling, in my view, to shake off the remains of the Corbyn era and being out of touch with Teesside voters (and Starmer isn't really landing anything to counter that). It's the usual issue that whilst the traditional Labour voters are still mostly economically lefty and fairly close to the Labour party on that, rightly or wrongly there is the perception that the Tories are saying and doing the right things when it comes to social/cultural/or similar issues and that is the thing that is more important in voters minds.

I think the other issue more generally is that whilst Labour (and the other parties) should be pointing out the blatant corruption and cronyism of the current Government and in particular Boris it doesn't seem to be shifting the needle that much. I think in part because there's an element of that being "priced in". People aren't stupid, they knew what Boris was when the voted for Tory candidates so Boris then behaving in the way they expect isn't exactly going to do much damage to his reputation and ability to attract votes. But equally because I really don't know what Labour stand for at the moment other than "we're not the Tories" and "we're not Corbyn either (we promise)!". I think given time once the scale of the corruption becomes clear it will make a difference (I severely doubt Boris will lead the Tories into the 2024 General Election) but it isn't going to shift the needle enough yet.

So locally, if you broadly knew that Boris was always going to be a dodgy lying buffoon, the Labour party are still soul seeking and the last time out we voted Tory and suddenly for the first time in what feels like decades we're getting proper attention paid to us with funding, jobs, opportunities, etc. Why wouldn't you vote Tory again?
 

24Grange

Member
Joined
7 Jan 2021
Messages
218
Location
Baldock
Where I am, the whole thing seems completely pointless - same candidates are returned year on year with minimal changes - other candidates just seem to go through the motions - they know they are not going to win.
 

takno

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
3,545
Oh yeah. Houchen (the incumbent Tory mayor) will, I suspect, win it in a landslide (saved the airport dontcha know!). I wouldn't be surprised if he gets it on first preference votes. But can anyone really be surprised? The Government have showered money on the region and he's been able (rightly or wrongly) to attach his name to that funding. Things like the Freeport status for Teesport (which I'm extremely dubious about but gets great play as being the thing that will bring huge numbers of jobs to Teesside), the funding for Teesworks (which so far has only managed to knock buildings down rather than building anything new), the play around turning Teesside into a "hydrogen hub" for transport, getting the Treasury to site their northern campus at Darlington, etc etc have all played very well. Whilst I'm deeply cynical about the fact that Teesside has had high levels of (and continues to have) deprivation for decades and it's only in the last year or two that we've seen any significant attention since we started voting Tory (I'm sure that's unrelated though...) I can certainly see why Houchen is likely to get re-elected.

As for Hartlepool I would say it's probably the Tories to lose. I wouldn't be stunned if Labour retained it but I would be pleasantly surprised. It's a similar dynamic to that which is playing out for the wider Mayoralty. The Tories are seen to be getting things done for Teesside whilst Labour are still seen to be struggling, in my view, to shake off the remains of the Corbyn era and being out of touch with Teesside voters (and Starmer isn't really landing anything to counter that). It's the usual issue that whilst the traditional Labour voters are still mostly economically lefty and fairly close to the Labour party on that, rightly or wrongly there is the perception that the Tories are saying and doing the right things when it comes to social/cultural/or similar issues and that is the thing that is more important in voters minds.

I think the other issue more generally is that whilst Labour (and the other parties) should be pointing out the blatant corruption and cronyism of the current Government and in particular Boris it doesn't seem to be shifting the needle that much. I think in part because there's an element of that being "priced in". People aren't stupid, they knew what Boris was when the voted for Tory candidates so Boris then behaving in the way they expect isn't exactly going to do much damage to his reputation and ability to attract votes. But equally because I really don't know what Labour stand for at the moment other than "we're not the Tories" and "we're not Corbyn either (we promise)!". I think given time once the scale of the corruption becomes clear it will make a difference (I severely doubt Boris will lead the Tories into the 2024 General Election) but it isn't going to shift the needle enough yet.

So locally, if you broadly knew that Boris was always going to be a dodgy lying buffoon, the Labour party are still soul seeking and the last time out we voted Tory and suddenly for the first time in what feels like decades we're getting proper attention paid to us with funding, jobs, opportunities, etc. Why wouldn't you vote Tory again?
Difficult to argue with any of that tbh
 

DarloRich

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
25,488
Location
Fenny Stratford
Oh yeah. Houchen (the incumbent Tory mayor) will, I suspect, win it in a landslide (saved the airport dontcha know!). I wouldn't be surprised if he gets it on first preference votes. But can anyone really be surprised? The Government have showered money on the region and he's been able (rightly or wrongly) to attach his name to that funding. Things like the Freeport status for Teesport (which I'm extremely dubious about but gets great play as being the thing that will bring huge numbers of jobs to Teesside), the funding for Teesworks (which so far has only managed to knock buildings down rather than building anything new), the play around turning Teesside into a "hydrogen hub" for transport, getting the Treasury to site their northern campus at Darlington, etc etc have all played very well. Whilst I'm deeply cynical about the fact that Teesside has had high levels of (and continues to have) deprivation for decades and it's only in the last year or two that we've seen any significant attention since we started voting Tory (I'm sure that's unrelated though...) I can certainly see why Houchen is likely to get re-elected.

As for Hartlepool I would say it's probably the Tories to lose. I wouldn't be stunned if Labour retained it but I would be pleasantly surprised. It's a similar dynamic to that which is playing out for the wider Mayoralty. The Tories are seen to be getting things done for Teesside whilst Labour are still seen to be struggling, in my view, to shake off the remains of the Corbyn era and being out of touch with Teesside voters (and Starmer isn't really landing anything to counter that). It's the usual issue that whilst the traditional Labour voters are still mostly economically lefty and fairly close to the Labour party on that, rightly or wrongly there is the perception that the Tories are saying and doing the right things when it comes to social/cultural/or similar issues and that is the thing that is more important in voters minds.

I think the other issue more generally is that whilst Labour (and the other parties) should be pointing out the blatant corruption and cronyism of the current Government and in particular Boris it doesn't seem to be shifting the needle that much. I think in part because there's an element of that being "priced in". People aren't stupid, they knew what Boris was when the voted for Tory candidates so Boris then behaving in the way they expect isn't exactly going to do much damage to his reputation and ability to attract votes. But equally because I really don't know what Labour stand for at the moment other than "we're not the Tories" and "we're not Corbyn either (we promise)!". I think given time once the scale of the corruption becomes clear it will make a difference (I severely doubt Boris will lead the Tories into the 2024 General Election) but it isn't going to shift the needle enough yet.

So locally, if you broadly knew that Boris was always going to be a dodgy lying buffoon, the Labour party are still soul seeking and the last time out we voted Tory and suddenly for the first time in what feels like decades we're getting proper attention paid to us with funding, jobs, opportunities, etc. Why wouldn't you vote Tory again?
Thanks - that is what I feared. I am a bit out of touch with the area now but friends seem impressed with Houchen even though he hasn't actually done much! The big one is shifting some low grade, but very badly needed, treasury jobs north. That has played very well. Houchen seems to have a good press operation behind him.

The Johnson factor baffle me. He is so clearly unfit for command yet is seemingly loved! People don't want to see or admit the truth I guess.

Labour are in the clarts frankly.
 
Joined
25 Jan 2016
Messages
433
Location
Wolverhampton
Just having a look at them, yes in the West Midlands the opinion polling between Andy Street (incumbent Tory) and the Labour candidate is similar to 2017, which was a close result after second preferences. I was also reading that Street has been trying to distance himself from the rest of the Tory Party, suggesting he's not confident about the approval of the wider party. I definitely remember Johnson forgetting the West of England Mayor video though, it's just a question of how many in the area saw this gaffe.

Street has for this year and in 2017, shrouded himself in Green and White!
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
2,803
Location
Maidstone
Sadly I suspect the Tories will win hartlepooh and retain the Tees Valley mayoralty. So many people just don't want to look at the truth around them.. I am sure @ainsworth74 will have the gen

My ward in MK did have three Labour Councillors but the Tories and the Greens are pushing hard for one of the seats. I hope we retain our local Councillors as they have all proved very responsive to fixing the small mundane local issues that always crop up: rubbish, parking, noise, planning etc.

I know the Police and Crime commissioner is also up for election. That is all i know about that!

IN London i hope Binface storms to power because once Bailey is handed his hat Johnson will look to scrap the London Mayor. it is fine if the voters behave but if they cant be trusted to elect a Tory they should not be allowed to vote ;)
As Covid has dominated the setup the effects of Brexit are yet to be fully seen, which will be a large part of why Hartlepool is set to go blue; Labour are not likely to lose any support, but the effect merger of the Brexit and Tory parties into one is what will tip it over. Give things a few years and perceptions might change. Johnson is opposed to devolution overall because he likes centralised power, but obviously non-Tory devolution is worse to them.

Thanks - that is what I feared. I am a bit out of touch with the area now but friends seem impressed with Houchen even though he hasn't actually done much! The big one is shifting some low grade, but very badly needed, treasury jobs north. That has played very well. Houchen seems to have a good press operation behind him.

The Johnson factor baffle me. He is so clearly unfit for command yet is seemingly loved! People don't want to see or admit the truth I guess.

Labour are in the clarts frankly.
That's post-truth politics for you, only a catastrophic incident will expose problems, which unfortunately for us isn't covid (yet, depending on the fallout to come). Once Johnson does go I don't see anyone else having anywhere near as good a selling persona in the Tory party; Sunak is the favourite to take over and his social media "cringe" activity is him trying to boost his image, but the extreme cost and consequences of his spending could come back to haunt him should he become PM.

Once upside perhaps is the Tories have so many enemies now, that Labour don't need to win the next election, they and other parties just need to do enough to force a hung parliament and be pragmatic in forming a progressive alliance, because the Tories will not get any coalition partners. That's when and where electoral reform can be brought in.
 

TravelDream

Member
Joined
7 Aug 2016
Messages
373
A few random thoughts...
I think a lot of people forget that the Johnson government is just as left wing in many ways as New Labour was. This isn't David Cameron's party of austerity. Boris Johnson is a believer in big government, state intervention and the magic money tree.

My personal belief is that he isn't fit to lead a government, yet lots of people adore him. I know a scarily large number of 'working class' people (pensioners, people on the dole, shop workers and similar) who voted Conservative in 2019 because of him when he, in reality, knows little and cares even less about them. Until Labour manages to understand the appeal of Boris Johnson, I think they'll continue to really struggle.

In Hartlepool, if Labour lose, some people will blame Corbyn, some Starmer, and some will say Johnson is too good. However, the figures speak for themselves. The rot set-in when New Labour were in government. Since 2010, they no longer weight the Labour vote in northern seats, but actually have to count it. During the 80s, Labour consistently got 20k votes or more in the seat. This continued until the 2001 election. After 2001, the New Labour rot then began - yes, Labour still held the seat fairly safely, but the raw Labour vote just fell and fell. 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019 were all elections where Labour won the seat, but struggled with votes. 2017 was actually a pretty decent election for Labour where they got over 20k. Corbyn obviously wasn't hated too much back then and May was a much easier opponent with her disastrous campaign. By 2019, Corbyn's image was soured in the public's mind, Labour's campaign smacked of desperation and the Conservatives were now led by Johnson.
 

Gloster

Established Member
Joined
4 Sep 2020
Messages
2,222
Location
Up the creek
A few random thoughts...
I think a lot of people forget that the Johnson government is just as left wing in many ways as New Labour was. This isn't David Cameron's party of austerity. Boris Johnson is a believer in big government, state intervention and the magic money tree.
Boris Johnson is quite happy to spend large sums of taxpayers’ money on things that will buy him popularity. For him it is ‘cheap at the price’ as he doesn’t have to pick up the bill: it is the country as a whole that will have to pick it up in the not too distant future. Big government and state intervention are similar: they allow him to get things done that will gain him popularity. Whether they are the right thing for the country, in the short or the long term, is not a consideration: short term popularity is everything. And his government’s habit of favouring the already rich and powerful over the most needy (school meals, anyone?) can never be described as left-wing. Nor can most of the restrictions placed on things like the right to demonstrate peacefully be seen as left-wing.
 

ainsworth74

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
16 Nov 2009
Messages
23,605
Location
Redcar
Since 2010, they no longer weight the Labour vote in northern seats, but actually have to count it.

In hindsight I think the real on the night warning sign that the exit poll was bang on and we were on for a shocking show for Labour was when Houghton and Sunderland South didn't declare anywhere near as quick as they usually do (was still quick mind you!). And sure enough the majority in that seat had been slashed from just over 12,000 in 2017 to just over 3,000 in 2019. When one party is coming back with over 12,000 excess votes you can count quick enough to be the first to declare. When it's only a few thousand you have to go a bit slower...
 

Butts

On Moderation
Joined
16 Jan 2011
Messages
10,285
Location
Stirlingshire
Polls closed!

Do we think there will be any major changes?

Unfortunately due to the snail like counting regime this year we will have to wait until Saturday for the last results to filter through.

No Election Special to watch at work Tonight :'(
 

tommy2215

Member
Joined
10 Aug 2017
Messages
211
Labour have already lost Harlow council and Nuneaton and Bedworth council to the Tories, and have lost quite a few councillors in the North East. Apparently Tories are on track for a big win in the Hartlepool by election. I expect the hard left will attempt a leadership challenge against Starmer in the coming weeks. The divisions in the Labour party are only going to get worse.
 

SuperNova

Member
Joined
12 Dec 2019
Messages
581
Location
The North
Labour have already lost Harlow council and Nuneaton and Bedworth council to the Tories, and have lost quite a few councillors in the North East. Apparently Tories are on track for a big win in the Hartlepool by election. I expect the hard left will attempt a leadership challenge against Starmer in the coming weeks. The divisions in the Labour party are only going to get worse.
They're already suggesting Long-Bailey as leader on twitter and the Corbynites who've been campaigning against Labour are loving it. They really don't get it...
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
29,507
Location
Yorks
I must admit, whilst I can see that labour hasn't performed as an opposition, I can't really understand the largescale swith to the Tories.

A vaccine boost perhaps.
 

tommy2215

Member
Joined
10 Aug 2017
Messages
211
A 7,000 majority, and the Labour vote down 9% in Hartlepool! Tories on the brink of gaining Dudley council and probably a few others in the coming days. These results are way worse than I was expecting.... what's the betting Boris decides he wants a general election later this year?
 
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
602
Lost?
Battered.

Not quite, but almost twice the number of votes for Cons, than Lab.

LibDems and Greens buried somewhere down with a multitude of independent and fringe party votes.
 

Butts

On Moderation
Joined
16 Jan 2011
Messages
10,285
Location
Stirlingshire
Thanks - that is what I feared. I am a bit out of touch with the area now but friends seem impressed with Houchen even though he hasn't actually done much! The big one is shifting some low grade, but very badly needed, treasury jobs north. That has played very well. Houchen seems to have a good press operation behind him.

The Johnson factor baffle me. He is so clearly unfit for command yet is seemingly loved! People don't want to see or admit the truth I guess.

Labour are in the clarts frankly.

You've spent too much time in Buckinghamshire supping Frappuccino's with fellow exiles in your middle class bubble unaware of the sea changes occurring amongst working class voters in the North East. :E

Lost?
Battered.

Not quite, but almost twice the number of votes for Cons, than Lab.

LibDems and Greens buried somewhere down with a multitude of independent and fringe party votes.

Talking of fringe candidates who was the Blonde on stage with hangers that didn't look anything like a Monkey !!

Women's Equality Party 140 Votes....:idea: What a joke Hartlepool's first female MP is a Conservative .
 
Last edited:
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
602
Listening to the early reactions and attempts to understand the result from various Labour politicians and spokespersons, it’s the same sort of complete misreading and misunderstanding that followed the last 2 general elections and the Brexit referendum.

” People are coming back to Labour, but don’t quite trust them enough yet”.
Excuses or Delusion?
Sorry no, those voters understand very well.
 

DarloRich

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
25,488
Location
Fenny Stratford
Conservative annihilation of Labour in Monkey Hanger Town !!
You've spent too much time in Buckinghamshire supping Frappuccino's with fellow exiles in your middle class bubble unaware of the sea changes occurring amongst working class voters in the North East.

I am sure it is a great day for Tory boys to enjoy themselves. A good win but the question is why.

Firstly the town was a big leave area, irc, 70 (!) % leave. It was third on the Kippers success list in 2015 and in 2019 Richard Tice for the Brexit party almost beat the Tories into third. Now that we have a vote leave government and no UKIP/Brexit option those votes have gone to Vote Leave sorry Conservative.That kind of change has happened across many of the north east council seats i have noticed coming in. That is the main reason why this seat is now blue and is just, imo, a continuation of the 2019 election posistion.

There was also a local independent candidate who has had a good showing and took nearly 3k votes on a 9.7% vote share. Clearly there have also been switches from Labour to Tory but not massive numbers. The turn out was also low at under 30k while recent general election turn out is around 41K. Labour also managed to appoint a remain type candidate to a staunch leave area which cant have helped!

The Corncob clown army will be out in force demanding a change of direction and i suspect they will discuss a leadership bid ( seemingly on the basis that Corncob held Hartlepooh twice - ignoring the numbers!) but that will be a disaster. A return of the clown army politics that delivered labours worse election defeat since the 1930's helps no one. Starmer has an awful lot to do! The unknown is that the fall out of brexit and the cuts required to pay for the pandemic are yet to hit.


Batley and Spen ( assuming Brabin win the West Yorks mayoralty) will be a big challenge. A defeat there would be more damaging imo.


PS - What is a Frappuccino?
 
Last edited:

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
7,502
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
I am sure it is a great day for Tory boys to enjoy themselves. A good win but the question is why.

Firstly the town was a big leave area, irc, 70 (!) % leave. It was third on the Kippers success list in 2015 and in 2019 Richard Tice for the Brexit party almost beat the Tories into third. Now that we have a vote leave government and no UKIP/Brexit option those votes have gone to Vote Leave sorry Conservative.That kind of change has happened across many of the north east council seats i have noticed coming in. That is the main reason why this seat is now blue and is just, imo, a continuation of the 2019 election posistion.

There was also a local independent candidate who has had a good showing and took nearly 3k votes on a 9.7% vote share. Clearly there have also been switches from Labour to Tory but not massive numbers. The turn out was also low at under 30k while recent general election turn out is around 41K. Labour also managed to appoint a remain type candidate to a staunch leave area which cant have helped!

The Corncob clown army will be out in force demanding a change of direction and i suspect they will discuss a leadership bid ( seemingly on the basis that Corncob held Hartlepooh twice - ignoring the numbers!) but that will be a disaster. A return of the clown army politics that delivered labours worse election defeat since the 1930's helps no one. Starmer has an awful lot to do! The unknown is that the fall out of brexit and the cuts required to pay for the pandemic are yet to hit.


Batley and Spen ( assuming Brabin win the West Yorks mayoralty) will be a big challenge. A defeat there would be more damaging imo.


PS - What is a Frappuccino?
Honestly, I think Starmer is at the heart of the problem. His sneering "I don't need lectures from you" remark to the landlord in Bath revealed his clear contempt towards a large proportion of Labour's usual supporter base. That and his party's seeming failure to be an effective opposition and trying to secure better agreements for low paid workers heavily effected by covid restrictions (and in some cases calling for even more) have cemented Labour's position as opposition (in name only it seems) for many years to come.

BoJo would have had a job on losing ground in these elections, Starmer needed a bloody miracle! Labour are going to need to take a long hard look at themselves, and more important lose the arrogance so that they can start to listen to those voters walking away from them.
 
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
602
.....The Corncob clown army will be out in force demanding a change of direction and i suspect they will discuss a leadership bid ( seemingly on the basis that Corncob held Hartlepooh twice - ignoring the numbers!) but that will be a disaster. A return of the clown army politics that delivered labours worse election defeat since the 1930's helps no one.

They’ve started already
A statement reported as coming from Momentum, effectively warning Starmer to u-turn and return to the Corbin agenda, or face possible re-election.

I’m listening to Diane Abbot on 5 Live being interviewed by Nicky Campbell, right at the moment.
What delusions she is suffering.
No idea whatsoever. Appalling.
 

PauloDavesi

On Moderation
Joined
14 Dec 2011
Messages
125
Conservatives have gained control of Dudley. This has to be positive for Andy Street in his bid to remain West Midlands mayor.
 

Smidster

Member
Joined
23 Oct 2014
Messages
384
I despair at the electorate every time - and today is no different.

The most incompetent, heartless and corrupt Government in many years and still time after time after time the people say "more please"

The Tories have been somewhat lucky that to date the real impacts of both Brexit and the Pandemic really haven't been felt.

At least 8 more years of this right wing shower - awful.
 

Top