• Dear Guest, and welcome to RailUK Forums. Our non-railway discussion forums are currently restricted until members have five or more posts, and you will not be able to make a new thread or reply to an existing one in this section until you have made five or more posts elsewhere on the forum.

Super Thursday - Elections 2021

takno

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
3,545
They’ve started already
A statement reported as coming from Momentum, effectively warning Starmer to u-turn and return to the Corbin agenda, or face possible re-election.

I’m listening to Diane Abbot on 5 Live being interviewed by Nicky Campbell, right at the moment.
What delusions she is suffering.
No idea whatsoever. Appalling.
It's a slightly perplexing position, the idea that Diane Abbott has any business being interviewed on national radio.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

SuperNova

Member
Joined
12 Dec 2019
Messages
581
Location
The North
Honestly, I think Starmer is at the heart of the problem. His sneering "I don't need lectures from you" remark to the landlord in Bath revealed his clear contempt towards a large proportion of Labour's usual supporter base. That and his party's seeming failure to be an effective opposition and trying to secure better agreements for low paid workers heavily effected by covid restrictions (and in some cases calling for even more) have cemented Labour's position as opposition (in name only it seems) for many years to come.
I'm sorry but this is twaddle. Just because that's your view doesn't mean it correlates to the North East. It's much more complex and long-term than Starmer or Covid.

John Bercow was quite right on QT last night that a defeat for labour isn't a shock. People in the NE wanted Brexit, the Tories got Brexit done, plus there is the vaccination programme which is successful too, more down to the NHS/Scientists but still the government invested large in it and the vaccine bounce is real. Both these things have contributed. Then you've got the Corbyn issue. He was the number one reason people didn't vote Labour in 2019 and not Brexit. This put off older voters.

And then you've got the age difference. Young people have been leaving areas like Hartlepool for years now to go find better jobs and money. The population is overwhelmingly older and more likely to own their own homes - both categories the Tories have always excelled in but have been growing support in even more. In 2015 40% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour compared to 60% in 2019, whereas in 2015 42% of over 65's voted Tory and in 2019 64% of over 65's voted Tory. Hartlepool and similar constituencies are overwhelmingly older than they were when Labour labour last won a GE.

They’ve started already
A statement reported as coming from Momentum, effectively warning Starmer to u-turn and return to the Corbin agenda, or face possible re-election.

I’m listening to Diane Abbot on 5 Live being interviewed by Nicky Campbell, right at the moment.
What delusions she is suffering.
No idea whatsoever. Appalling.

They'll demand a lurch to the left but without a coalition within the Labour party and principled/clever policies and a vision Labour won't go anywhere. The hard left don't get that older working class communities are patriotic and proud. People like Burgon and Zarah Sultana just play into the culture war narrative Labour need to avoid.
 

AlterEgo

Veteran Member
Joined
30 Dec 2008
Messages
13,284
Location
No longer here
Tories are bad, and I never, ever, under any circumstances vote for them, but they rarely make the critical errors of:

- Talking down to or writing off the electorate
- Coming across as hating the country or its people
- Have endless ideological purity battles among their own kind

The Labour Party can never form a government on its own ever again, something which has been apparently for about ten years. Britain is an inherently conservative place. Radicalism is the exception and not the rule.
 
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
602
Something key being missed.
The days of traditional, blind voting (“I’ve always voted Labour, always will. My dad voted Labour and his dad before him......blah, blah”) have gone, maybe forever.
The Labour Party no longer represent the views and aspirations of many of their so-called traditional voter base.
The core values are miles apart.
The further left Labour go, the less appeal they will have.

Calls and attempts to take the party in any direction, left or right won’t work.
It’s like flared trousers, tank tops and wind-up gramophones. Their time has gone.
 

AlterEgo

Veteran Member
Joined
30 Dec 2008
Messages
13,284
Location
No longer here
Something key being missed.
The days of traditional, blind voting (“I’ve always voted Labour, always will. My dad voted Labour and his dad before him......blah, blah”) have gone, maybe forever.
The Labour Party no longer represent the views and aspirations of many of their so-called traditional voter base.
The core values are miles apart.
The further left Labour go, the less appeal they will have.

Calls and attempts to take the party in any direction, left or right won’t work.
It’s like flared trousers, tank tops and wind-up gramophones. Their time has gone.
Quite. There is no cohesive "labour movement" any more. It's gone, and will not come back.
 

ainsworth74

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
16 Nov 2009
Messages
23,605
Location
Redcar
John Bercow was quite right on QT last night that a defeat for labour isn't a shock. People in the NE wanted Brexit, the Tories got Brexit done, plus there is the vaccination programme which is successful too, more down to the NHS/Scientists but still the government invested large in it and the vaccine bounce is real. Both these things have contributed. Then you've got the Corbyn issue. He was the number one reason people didn't vote Labour in 2019 and not Brexit. This put off older voters.

The thing I would add to that is just that, in a specifically Teesside context, we're getting paid attention to the by the Government since we've elected a Tory mayor and in particular since we started returning significant numbers of Tory MPs and narrowing the gap in other constituencies so that they might legitimately be in play.

Take Middlesbrough for instance. Historically a constituency which returns a Labour MP with a majority of over 10,000 until 2019 when it was 8,000 (whilst had dipped that low in 2010 I suspect that had far more to do with tiredness at the thirteen years of Labour government and tiredness at the same MP since 1983 who was getting into a bit of strife with the MP expenses scandal and accusations of being 'lazy' than actual Labour party weakness). Whilst it would still take a lot of work Middlesbrough is far more in play now than it probably has been in decades. A little bit more money for the local Tory mayor, a bit more of a reminder that "we got Brexit done" (Middlesbrough 65% in favour of leave), continuing to play well on social issues (tough on crime, tough on immigration, proud of Britain, anti-woke, etc) and I can see it flipping Tory in 2024 (I was actually a little surprised it didn't flip in 2019, Andy McDonald, the MP, does not seem all that popular locally).

So if I'm the Tory party of course I'm going to continue focusing in on Teesside, what we're doing and the taxpayer money we're spending is working! If I play my cards right (see @AlterEgo's good points regarding that) then I can probably not only lock up a few seats but probably convert a few more. Certainly whilst Labour continue to their own internal ideological battles and continue to refight the last war (as it were). Oh for the Corbynistas and Momentumites to realise that the problem isn't saboteurs in their own ranks (there's only one group that I can see sabotaging Labour and, ya know, it's them) or the evil BBC and other media or, even worse, that the voters are too stupid to know what's good for them...
 

tommy2215

Member
Joined
10 Aug 2017
Messages
211
I think in order for Labour to get into power they need to forget about winning back working class voters. They need to focus on middle class, fairly affluent areas in the South, where they have been making small advances in recent years. I don't think there is anything they can do to win places like Dudley and Hartlepool back.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
7,502
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
I despair at the electorate every time - and today is no different.

The most incompetent, heartless and corrupt Government in many years and still time after time after time the people say "more please"

The Tories have been somewhat lucky that to date the real impacts of both Brexit and the Pandemic really haven't been felt.

At least 8 more years of this right wing shower - awful.

I'm sorry but this is twaddle. Just because that's your view doesn't mean it correlates to the North East. It's much more complex and long-term than Starmer or Covid.

John Bercow was quite right on QT last night that a defeat for labour isn't a shock. People in the NE wanted Brexit, the Tories got Brexit done, plus there is the vaccination programme which is successful too, more down to the NHS/Scientists but still the government invested large in it and the vaccine bounce is real. Both these things have contributed. Then you've got the Corbyn issue. He was the number one reason people didn't vote Labour in 2019 and not Brexit. This put off older voters.

And then you've got the age difference. Young people have been leaving areas like Hartlepool for years now to go find better jobs and money. The population is overwhelmingly older and more likely to own their own homes - both categories the Tories have always excelled in but have been growing support in even more. In 2015 40% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour compared to 60% in 2019, whereas in 2015 42% of over 65's voted Tory and in 2019 64% of over 65's voted Tory. Hartlepool and similar constituencies are overwhelmingly older than they were when Labour labour last won a GE.
The two of you have demonstrated just why Labour is in such poor health. For years Labour has become a sanctuary for righteous, self-indulgent wanna-be middle class suburbanites, full of hot air and virtue signalling. They are now so far removed from their traditional roots that they are losing support all over the working class areas, and what is worse they don't actually seem to care. In fact they almost seem happy being also-rans, maybe the thought of all that responsibility and of course accountability is a little to much for them to handle. After it gets harder to self-congratulate when you are the one who might be blamed for getting decisions wrong. Far easier to live out your political careers on the opposite side of the House, and Tweeting about how fantastic you are to those left wingers still crooning over you.

The Tories are a terrible, joke of a party. But Labour are worse & these results tell you that. And if they don't, then you are as self-indulgent & removed as the leadership.
 

AlterEgo

Veteran Member
Joined
30 Dec 2008
Messages
13,284
Location
No longer here
I think in order for Labour to get into power they need to forget about winning back working class voters. They need to focus on middle class, fairly affluent areas in the South, where they have been making small advances in recent years. I don't think there is anything they can do to win places like Dudley and Hartlepool back.
That's not going to win you an election.

The term "working class" has been effectively redundant for all of my adult life. We don't have a working class; we have a precariat and there's very little between that and the lower middle classes. New Labour did their level best to eviscerate the working class as a homogenous group and this is what you're left with.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
28,023
Location
A semi-rural part of north-west England
I think in order for Labour to get into power they need to forget about winning back working class voters. They need to focus on middle class, fairly affluent areas in the South, where they have been making small advances in recent years. I don't think there is anything they can do to win places like Dudley and Hartlepool back.
Does anyone on this website think that what the term "working class" meant up to the end of the 1970s still has any correlation to the understanding of its meaning in this part of the 21st century (outside that Momentum understanding of that phrase).
 

Smidster

Member
Joined
23 Oct 2014
Messages
384
Tories are bad, and I never, ever, under any circumstances vote for them, but they rarely make the critical errors of:
- Have endless ideological purity battles among their own kind

Eh? The last 6 years has been the way it is because of Tory squabbling about Europe.

Though I guess it is now the case that if you don't follow Dear Leaders view on Europe, and actually think they are a decent bunch of people and not the enemy then you have no place in the party so it is true that when you purge the dissent then you have a strong party line.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
28,023
Location
A semi-rural part of north-west England
I have just been telephoned by a friend in the Stockport area who tells me the council is still under "No overall control". One particular ward, Heald Green, is a little different political party wise, as the Ratepayers Party (formed as long ago as 1927) has held all its three seats since time immeroriable and in yesterdays' local election, the incumbent Ratepayers Party candidate again polled far more votes than all the political parties combined.

There was only a single change to report in Stockport council, which was the Green Party took the South Reddish seat from the Labour Party.
 
Last edited:
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
602
What was once the “working class voter” is nowadays more often than not, a self-employed person, eager to move themselves and their families economically upwards, or an “employed” person, who along with their family members, aspire to a better lifestyle, a nice house, nice car, holidays, money to spend, who all find themselves more aligned with the basic underlying ethos of Tory politics.
Labour politics and particularly “socialist” ideals, have become more and more remote from their own view of the world.

Add in all the politically correct and woke nonsense, all the peripheral, idealistic and largely irrelevant stuff that seems to be put above practical and real life issues that really matter...and you have a political party that is only surviving on the dwindling remnants of traditional voting habits.
 

TravelDream

Member
Joined
7 Aug 2016
Messages
373
I was expecting a Conservative gain, but the scale of the victory is absolutely astounding. I was expecting a majority of no more than a thousand or two at a push.

Looking at the few council results out, it seems Labour is doing very poorly in the north in 'traditional working class' areas and rural ones, but doing about the same as last time in cities (well... Newcastle). Of course 'traditional working class' doesn't really cut it in 2021 like it did in the 1980s.

What can Labour do to win in the next election? I genuinely don't know. It appears the Conservative party is just too popular. They've been in power 12 years, but most people see Boris Johnson as a totally new leader in his honeymoon term.

I think later today Hartlepool will quickly leave the headlines and all eyes will be north of the border which will dominate the news tonight. Scotland only started counting this morning, but results likely will be slow. Will the SNP get their majority they desperately want, but which is incredibly difficult with Scotland's mixed constituency-proportional electoral system?
 

SuperNova

Member
Joined
12 Dec 2019
Messages
581
Location
The North
The thing I would add to that is just that, in a specifically Teesside context, we're getting paid attention to the by the Government since we've elected a Tory mayor and in particular since we started returning significant numbers of Tory MPs and narrowing the gap in other constituencies so that they might legitimately be in play.

Take Middlesbrough for instance. Historically a constituency which returns a Labour MP with a majority of over 10,000 until 2019 when it was 8,000 (whilst had dipped that low in 2010 I suspect that had far more to do with tiredness at the thirteen years of Labour government and tiredness at the same MP since 1983 who was getting into a bit of strife with the MP expenses scandal and accusations of being 'lazy' than actual Labour party weakness). Whilst it would still take a lot of work Middlesbrough is far more in play now than it probably has been in decades. A little bit more money for the local Tory mayor, a bit more of a reminder that "we got Brexit done" (Middlesbrough 65% in favour of leave), continuing to play well on social issues (tough on crime, tough on immigration, proud of Britain, anti-woke, etc) and I can see it flipping Tory in 2024 (I was actually a little surprised it didn't flip in 2019, Andy McDonald, the MP, does not seem all that popular locally).

So if I'm the Tory party of course I'm going to continue focusing in on Teesside, what we're doing and the taxpayer money we're spending is working! If I play my cards right (see @AlterEgo's good points regarding that) then I can probably not only lock up a few seats but probably convert a few more. Certainly whilst Labour continue to their own internal ideological battles and continue to refight the last war (as it were). Oh for the Corbynistas and Momentumites to realise that the problem isn't saboteurs in their own ranks (there's only one group that I can see sabotaging Labour and, ya know, it's them) or the evil BBC and other media or, even worse, that the voters are too stupid to know what's good for them...
100% spot on, same is happening in the West Mids too.
 

ainsworth74

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
16 Nov 2009
Messages
23,605
Location
Redcar
What was once the “working class voter” is nowadays more often than not, a self-employed person, eager to move themselves and their families economically upwards, or an “employed” person, who along with their family members, aspire to a better lifestyle, a nice house, nice car, holidays, money to spend, who all find themselves more aligned with the basic underlying ethos of Tory politics.
Labour politics and particularly “socialist” ideals, have become more and more remote from their own view of the world.

I'm not sure that's necessarily so true. There seems to have been plenty of research which suggests that on economic issues the current and former Labour voters remain fairly closely aligned with current and former Labour party economic ideas and policy (more so than they are aligned with the Tory party). But it is this:
Add in all the politically correct and woke nonsense, all the peripheral, idealistic and largely irrelevant stuff that seems to be put above practical and real life issues that really matter.

And things like Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn (I'm sure I saw some research post the 2019 General Election which suggested that the Labour manifesto wasn't especially unpopular, Jeremy Corbyn was however as toxic as the remains of Reactor 4 in Chernobyl) which are the bigger attraction for former Labour voters to switch to the Tory party.
 

takno

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
3,545
I think in order for Labour to get into power they need to forget about winning back working class voters. They need to focus on middle class, fairly affluent areas in the South, where they have been making small advances in recent years. I don't think there is anything they can do to win places like Dudley and Hartlepool back.
I think the big mistake is to get derailed into this class war. Labour as a successful party has never primarily represented "the interests of the north", and isn't now a party for the metropolitan elite, and for the most part those interests aren't opposed.

The way I see it Labour were wavering in 2015, and only really needed a small push in the right direction to get back on track. Milliband at the time was unfortunately not quite the person to do that. Corbyn was a disaster, and took Labour light years in the wrong direction. We have to fight back from that. Starmer is lightly steering the ship in the right direction, not making things worse, but he hasn't got the personality to really regain anybody's belief. He'll have to do for now, but really we need somebody who can connect on a personal level, with an open and optimistic agenda.

You can't win on an agenda that half the current government should be in jail. People know that, and even care about it, but at the end of the day putting half the current government in jail isn't going to get them a job, or re-open their pub. It isn't going to get their grandkids into a decent school or help their nephew off the park bench and into a decent home. Hell, putting the current government in jail isn't even going to get the bins emptied.

I want the ability to live with people I like in an alright house, an reasonably well-paid job I don't mind doing, alright hospitals that can treat things I'm likely to get, alright schools that my kids don't come home crying from, clean public spaces, and decent facilities (pubs, shops, beaches, deliveries, maybe a nice castle to visit on holiday). I'm not keen on having miserable neighbours, or being robbed by the poor, so I'd also like the same for other people, even in London. I want a leader that tells me I deserve a bit of that, and thinks they've got a bit of a plan for how to do that. I don't care too much what the government own, or for that matter whether they spent 50 grand on house.

I want them to tell me that they care about me, and that everything can be alright, and act like they mean it
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
13,458
Given the situation in Scotland, the house of Commons currently has approximately 583 memebers, excluding Sinn Fein and the Speaker.

This means the finish line for the Labour party is 292, at which point there best option is to go minority government and introduce proportional representation of some type.
Currently labour have ~199 seats

The 90 most marginal seats, excluding Scotland, involve the usual suspects in the North of England, but a lot of seats you wouldn't expect in the south.


I'm afraid the North of England has been drifting away since 1997, it was going to cross over sometime in the next couple of election cycles anyway.
The question for Labour is not "how do we win them back?", it is "how do we replace them?".
 

TravelDream

Member
Joined
7 Aug 2016
Messages
373
The way I see it Labour were wavering in 2015, and only really needed a small push in the right direction to get back on track. Milliband at the time was unfortunately not quite the person to do that. Corbyn was a disaster, and took Labour light years in the wrong direction. We have to fight back from that. Starmer is lightly steering the ship in the right direction, not making things worse, but he hasn't got the personality to really regain anybody's belief. He'll have to do for now, but really we need somebody who can connect on a personal level, with an open and optimistic agenda.

There are going to be some very poor takes from the Labour side over the next few days and this is one of them.

Corbyn got the best result in Hartlepool for Labour since 2001. Better than 2005, 2010 and 2015. He also held the seat in 2019.

But, of course, it's all Corbyn's fault. If Labour do decide this is the reason for their defeat, I am predicting the Tories will win the 2024 election right now.

I am in no way a Corbyn supporter and he clung on for too long given the negativity surrounding him, but Labour's issues started long before Corbyn became leader. They have lost lots of their traditional voters and Starmer is doing nothing to stop it, never mind reverse it.
 

wireforever

Member
Joined
7 Feb 2019
Messages
104
Corbyn had as much charisma as a paper bag compared to Boris .'Get brexit done' and he delivered, vaccine programme has been a success .Labour have been lazy local council wise taking voters for granted wonder how many votes Count Binface will get in London.Unfortunately people like Abbott are stuck in the past and need to realise labour voters expect a lot more from their party both locally and nationally.Having said all that I have never had a knock on the door from a Tory candidate in a local or general election for a good 20+ years
 

TravelDream

Member
Joined
7 Aug 2016
Messages
373
Good analysis on Hartlepool in this article. The writer boils it down to six things and all are hard to disagree with.
1 Vaccine bounce is real
2 Johnson is a master storyteller, Starmer isn’t
3 Brexitland values
4 Hartlepool isn’t Oldham
5 Labour’s coalition of voters is less stable
6 Long Corbyn, long Miliband, Blair denial

 

S&CLER

Member
Joined
11 Jan 2020
Messages
549
Location
southport
The old traditional industrial working class peaked as a percentage of the population in the late 1940s. The decline of Labour is paralleled, too, by similar declines in the "labour" parties in Europe, e.g the SDP in Germany or the PvdA in the Netherlands. To an extent, though, the PR systems in Europe mean that the left is usually divided between mainstream social democrat and left-wing socialist parties, which don't need to try to hold together in a single party, as Labour tries to do.
 

takno

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
3,545
There are going to be some very poor takes from the Labour side over the next few days and this is one of them.

Corbyn got the best result in Hartlepool for Labour since 2001. Better than 2005, 2010 and 2015. He also held the seat in 2019.

But, of course, it's all Corbyn's fault. If Labour do decide this is the reason for their defeat, I am predicting the Tories will win the 2024 election right now.

I am in no way a Corbyn supporter and he clung on for too long given the negativity surrounding him, but Labour's issues started long before Corbyn became leader. They have lost lots of their traditional voters and Starmer is doing nothing to stop it, never mind reverse it.
That is exactly not what I said. Corbyn was a disaster primarily because he was completely incapable of actually connecting with the wider population. He turned the party into an entirely inward-looking movement having petty factional arguments about things that nobody in the wider world actually cared about, and when he was discussing things people in the wider world cared about, he invariably took the wrong position on them and got angry with people for not agreeing with him. Starmer isn't good enough, but he's about equilibrium bad.
 

Tomp94

Member
Joined
9 May 2019
Messages
109
The current “conservative” party/government is the most left wing “conservative” party ever. What is conservative about them? Like Labour, they are pro lockdown, authoritarian, low-wage, high tax, borrow/spend mad, tree huggers.
And, like Labour they are made of career politicians who serve their globalist chum masters. Big banks, big tech, big pharma, and other massive worldwide corporations.
The electorate will never learn, nothing will ever change, and the status quo of mob after mob globalist regime after globalist regime will continue. It’s like Turkeys voting for Christmas.


I didn’t vote as I didn’t have a choice of candidates. The only “choice” I had was LibLabCon and Green. I wish I could put myself down as a candidate so I had someone to vote for.
 
Last edited:

swt_passenger

Veteran Member
Joined
7 Apr 2010
Messages
25,727
It's a slightly perplexing position, the idea that Diane Abbott has any business being interviewed on national radio.

Ah, but at least she’s there to tell us all we can’t possibly blame Corbyn’s style of politics. It’s probably a media plot; wheel out Diane every time you want to help reduce Labour‘s vote…
 

WelshBluebird

Established Member
Joined
14 Jan 2010
Messages
4,082
With the byelection specifically it is worth taking into consideration that in terms of actual numbers of votes compared to 2017 and 2019. For the 2017 numbers, the Tories barely increased their vote count at all (went from ~14k to ~15k). What happened was that the Labour vote just didn't show up (they dropped from ~22k to ~8k). Now of course that is a massive problem, but it isn't a case of Labour voters turning Tory as much as the media are making it out to be. It is a very different issue than what the media are portraying and the problem will now be that the party will likely respond in a way to try to fix the problem the media have reported and not the problem that actually exists.

(note I am sure some of that above is also explained by a decrease in the Tory vote turnout but with some ex Labour then Brexit Party voters turned Tory added. But I'd question the narrative of if that is all of the answer).
 
Last edited:

takno

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
3,545
Ah, but at least she’s there to tell us all we can’t possibly blame Corbyn’s style of politics. It’s probably a media plot; wheel out Diane every time you want to help reduce Labour‘s vote…
I notice that the Today programme had John McDonnell. I wonder if they trotted out a bunch of fringe Tories to talk about how their success was really down to voters preferring the traditional Conservative values of hanging and flogging for minor drug offences.
 

Top