Super Thursday - Elections 2021

[DarloRich]

I notice that the Today programme had John McDonnell. I wonder if they trotted out a bunch of fringe Tories to talk about how their success was really down to voters preferring the traditional Conservative values of hanging and flogging for minor drug offences.

They don't have to trot out a Tory fringe to speak on Radio 4 programmes anymore. The fringe are in charge of the party!

 

[tommy2215]

With the byelection specifically it is worth taking into consideration that in terms of actual numbers of votes, the Tories barely increased their vote count at all (went from ~14k to ~15k). What happened was that the Labour vote just didn't show up (they dropped from ~22k to ~8k). Now of course that is a massive problem, but it isn't a case of Labour voters turning Tory as much as the media are making it out to be. It is a very different issue than what the media are portraying and the problem will now be that the party will likely respond in a way to try to fix the problem the media have reported and not the problem that actually exists.

(note I am sure some of that above is also explained by a decrease in the Tory vote turnout but with some ex Labour then Brexit Party voters turned Tory added. But I'd question the narrative of if that is all of the answer).

I'd consider an increase in their vote count a huge achievement, its extremely rare any party increases their vote count in by elections because of the lower turnout.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I'd consider an increase in their vote count a huge achievement, its extremely rare any party increases their vote count in by elections because of the lower turnout.

And where did I say that wasn't the case?
I wasn't talking about if it was a huge achievement or not. I was countering the current media narrative which is "working class ex Labour voters now vote Tory" which I don't think is actually the whole story. I think "working class ex Labour voters didn't vote" is a much larger part of the answer to what has happened. And if you want to dig into it more, I have a feeling that a lot of the Brexit party vote in 2019 probably didn't vote this time around because what they were voting for has now been done.

 

[Ianno87]

And where did I say that wasn't the case?
I wasn't talking about if it was a huge achievement or not. I was countering the current media narrative which is "working class ex Labour voters now vote Tory" which I don't think is actually the whole story. I think "working class ex Labour voters don't vote at all" is a much larger part of the answer to what has happened.

That's basically what happened in 2019. Labour voters didn't switch- they just didn't vote.

 

[WelshBluebird]

That's basically what happened in 2019. Labour voters didn't switch- they just didn't vote.

And my concern is that the party will now have a massive very public infight about what they need to do to win back ex Labour now Tory voters and probably pander to some of that demographic (which admittedly does exist - I just think it is smaller than what the media is making it out to be) instead of actually asking itself why regular Labour voters couldn't be bothered to turn out to vote for them.

 

[XAM2175]

The current “conservative” party/government is the most left wing “conservative” party ever. What is conservative about them? Like Labour, they are pro lockdown, authoritarian, low-wage, high tax, borrow/spend mad, tree huggers.

Their stance on social justice?

 

[DarloRich]

The current “conservative” party/government is the most left wing “conservative” party ever. What is conservative about them? Like Labour, they are pro lockdown, authoritarian, low-wage, high tax, borrow/spend mad, tree huggers.
And, like Labour they are made of career politicians who serve their globalist chum masters. Big banks, big tech, big pharma, and other massive worldwide corporations.
The electorate will never learn, nothing will ever change, and the status quo of mob after mob globalist regime after globalist regime will continue. It’s like Turkeys voting for Christmas.


I didn’t vote as I didn’t have a choice of candidates. The only “choice” I had was LibLabCon and Green. I wish I could put myself down as a candidate so I had someone to vote for.

That is an "interesting" take.

 

[Mojo]

Perhaps a good idea that Paul Williams decided to switch at the last minute to stand as Hartlepool MP... the Conservative PCC candidate for Cleveland Police has won with over 50% of first preference votes.

 

[Geezertronic]

They don't have to trot out a Tory fringe to speak on Radio 4 programmes anymore. The fringe are in charge of the party!

I heard Diane Abbott was on the Radio as well and, although I didn't hear it myself, I suspect it was one of the best things the Tories could have hoped for

 

[DarloRich]

I heard Diane Abbott was on the Radio as well and, although I didn't hear it myself, I suspect it was one of the best things the Tories could have hoped for

They all need to go. Get them out, no matter who or how many it upsets.

 

[Butts]

I wonder how Kashmire Hawker (The OP) is doing ?

Is he going to keep The Red Flag Flying - in Wolverhampton at least ?

Are The Conservatives The Natural Party of Government - in England ?

 

[bb21]

Diane Abbott is already seen as much of an irrelevance to people who don't approve of her so I doubt she could do more damage.

Can someone tell me what Labour actually stand for these days? I am struggling to think of any, and I suspect that is a far more pressing issue for the party than anything else. Are they just anti-Tory or do they actually have a clear vision themselves, or is everyone too busy pointing the finger and infighting to care?

Much to @DarloRich 's annoyance I suspect and my own shame, I voted Tory for the first time ever in my life in the local council by-election yesterday. I was completely struck by the sheer arrogance of the Labour activists who came canvassing door to door recently solely blaming the collapse of the local council's finance on the central government with no acknowledgement on the mistakes the Labour-run council made or had any answer remotely on how Labour intend to fix the situation.

I remained undecided until election day but given the presence of a BNP candidate, I reluctantly went Tory to keep the fascists out. I just cannot possibly bring myself to lend my support to such a bunch of arrogant muppets.

 

[WelshBluebird]

blaming the collapse of the local council's finance on the central government with no acknowledgement on the mistakes the Labour-run council made or had any answer remotely on how Labour intend to fix the situation.

You may not have liked that - but I wouldn't be so confident it isn't far off the mark. Sure, some councils especially have had issues and have made mistakes (and there are absolutely some very specific cases where either mismanagement has happened, or pay rises for council chiefs have happened at the same time as cuts etc). But the amounts that central government funding have dropped since 2010 is staggering, and at the same time have resulted in the need to increase council tax in most areas (although for political reasons it isn't possible to increase council tax enough to make up for the amount of funding lost). So in many areas you have seen the real cost to people of their council services increase, but what they get for that decrease as councils have had to cut budgets and services to make ends meet. And then of course there's the comments that came out from one potential Tory councilor who was asking people to vote in a Tory council so that central government would treat them better - pure blackmail in my eyes and probably not far off the mark of what is happening behind the scenes.

Maybe one for another thread though!

Although I will say there does seem to be a worrying pattern in some areas with Labour councillers only really engaging with their ward in the run up to the election. I'm sure this isn't just limited to Labour, I am just aware of it as it is what I've seen in the ward in Bristol I live in (and because of that I voted Green yesterday, which in most of the country is pointless but in Bristol may just be worth it).

 

[HSTEd]

Something peculiar is happening in North East Scotland

 

[alex397]

Incredibly, Labour have held seats and also gained seats from the Tories in Canterbury.

It is a bit surprising, although not completely seeing as the local Tories here are quite bizarre, on an almost UKIP-level of fruitcake. For example, trolling the local Facebook groups.

 

[HSTEd]

Incredibly, Labour have held seats and also gained seats from the Tories in Canterbury.

It is a bit surprising, although not completely seeing as the local Tories here are quite bizarre, on an almost UKIP-level of fruitcake. For example, trolling the local Facebook groups.

Just as the North of England has been trending Conservative for years, the South of England has been doing the opposite

 

[bb21]

You may not have liked that - but I wouldn't be so confident it isn't far off the mark. Sure, some councils especially have had issues and have made mistakes (and there are absolutely some very specific cases where either mismanagement has happened, or pay rises for council chiefs have happened at the same time as cuts etc). But the amounts that central government funding have dropped since 2010 is staggering, and at the same time have resulted in the need to increase council tax in most areas (although for political reasons it isn't possible to increase council tax enough to make up for the amount of funding lost). So in many areas you have seen the real cost to people of their council services increase, but what they get for that decrease as councils have had to cut budgets and services to make ends meet. And then of course there's the comments that came out from one potential Tory councilor who was asking people to vote in a Tory council so that central government would treat them better - pure blackmail in my eyes!

Maybe one for another thread though!

Yes I agree with all that, and the central government must take likely the bulk of the blame. I won't dive deep into it as the causes are complex and for another discussion however Croydon Council's woes are well publicised, and to refuse to even acknowledge that Labour councillors did anything wrong does not sit comfortably with me at all, whether it be recklessness, arrogance, or sheer incompetence.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Continuing on from what I was saying in an earlier post about the numbers in Hartlepool indicating more that working class ex Labour voters just weren't turning up rather than voting Tory - some initial turnout figures from Bristol have been reported and it looks on first glance that the areas that are traditionally more working class (and who were among the few wards within the city to have supported Brexit) have had their turnouts plummet. Most of the city has had turnout lower than the 2016 council elections, but not as low as some of these. Special shoutout to Hartcliffe and Withywood with a turnout of 20%. One of the most deprived areas of the city where there is very much a old school working class presence. Now turnout wasn't high there last time either (27%), and I guess maybe I'm seeing what I expect to see, so I'm not going to say 100% what I said is happening, but it does have that feeling.

 

[takno]

Yes I agree with all that, and the central government must take likely the bulk of the blame. I won't dive deep into it as the causes are complex and for another discussion however Croydon Council's woes are well publicised, and to refuse to even acknowledge that Labour councillors did anything wrong does not sit comfortably with me at all, whether it be recklessness, arrogance, or sheer incompetence.

Croydon is a bit of a mess. The only thing I'd say in Labour's defence there is that the ambitious retail property plans were probably the only chance of keeping the council afloat and able to provide basic services in the face of government cuts, and they certainly aren't the only people to have had a commercial property portfolio destroyed by the government Covid response. Well, I'd probably also add that the local Tories come across as even less competent,

 

[DarloRich]

Much to @DarloRich 's annoyance I suspect and my own shame

That is your choice and I try hard not to criticise people for expressing their democratic right even if it isn't choice I could make. Personally, I would have spoiled my paper. I have never voted Tory and I never will.

I also find their leader repellent and unfit to lead but none of that seems to matter these days. Despite everything we know about Johnson; his behavior, his character, his idleness, his indolence, his mentality, his cronyism, his disregard for the rules he expects us to follow, his history as a proven liar and a philanderer people line up to lick his boots. People seem to think he is a "top bloke". I don't understand this country. I really don't. How can people look at that and think: yep, he is the man for me!

Can someone tell me what Labour actually stand for these days? I am struggling to think of any, and I suspect that is a far more pressing issue for the party than anything else.

I think the problem is that we want a sensible, mature adult in charge of the Labour party so we cant complain if a sensible, mature adult, in global pandemic, decides that things like lock-down needs to be supported. We cant have it both ways.

As that comes to an end Labour need to get out their policy message. IMO it needs to be "aspirational", and show that they can improve lives and chances for people at a more fundamental level than just moving a few low grade treasury jobs to Darlington! They have to show a plan for true "leveling up" and move away from silly student wokey nonsense.

Incredibly, Labour have held seats and also gained seats from the Tories in Canterbury!

Local elections can be bonkers - it only takes one wrong stance on a local issue and you are out!

Are The Conservatives The Natural Party of Government - in England ?

We have a Vote Leave/English National Party government inside a Conservative Party skin suit!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Something peculiar is happening in North East Scotland

Any chance you could make that a bit more vague?

 

[DarloRich]

roydon Council's woes are well publicised, and to refuse to even acknowledge that Labour councillors did anything wrong does not sit comfortably with me at all, whether it be recklessness, arrogance, or sheer incompetence.

hang on - you didn't mention Croydon in your initial statement! I wouldn't have voted Tory but that council is a basket case keeping Private Eye stuffed with stories!

 

[WelshBluebird]

Yes I agree with all that, and the central government must take likely the bulk of the blame. I won't dive deep into it as the causes are complex and for another discussion however Croydon Council's woes are well publicised, and to refuse to even acknowledge that Labour councillors did anything wrong does not sit comfortably with me at all, whether it be recklessness, arrogance, or sheer incompetence.

Fair enough! I've not seen the specifics of Croydon, but appreciate those examples do exist in some areas and especially when it comes to specific issues sometimes all bets are off. A quick google gives some "interesting" headlines at the very least for there so not really sure what I would have done!

As that comes to an end Labour need to get out their policy message. IMO it needs to be "aspirational", and show that they can improve lives and chances for people at a more fundamental level than just moving a few low grade treasury jobs to Darlington! They have to show a plan for true "leveling up" and move away from silly student wokey nonsense.

The thing is, at least to me, their manifesto in 2019 did exactly that. A lot of recent Labour policies are actually pretty popular with the public. It is just the messaging and the way people see the party that needs to change (but sadly - especially the way people see the party, those things can take the longest to change).

 

[HSTEd]

Any chance you could make that a bit more vague?

Massive swing to the Conservatives in a seat that was not expected to be competitive, Bannfshire and Buchan Coast.

 

[DarloRich]

The thing is, at least to me, their manifesto in 2019 did exactly that. A lot of recent Labour policies are actually pretty popular with the public. It is just the messaging and the way people see the party that needs to change (but sadly - especially the way people see the party, those things can take the longest to change).

Agreed in part- think any re-brand or refocus has been pushed back by CV19. You would be too easily open to accusations of playing politics while people died. This weekend will be awful press wise but needs to be the catalyst for that change to happen. It is going to be a hard and long road to recover from long Corbyn and it wont be Starmer leading at the end of it.

manifesto wise 2019 was like a wish list of everything anyone could think of rather than a focused list of deliverable priorities. It looked chaotic and was presented by a toxic leader. Pick the best bits out and focus on those while trying to sort out the mess that is internal labour politics and try and start moving forward polling wise.

 

[Ianno87]

And my concern is that the party will now have a massive very public infight about what they need to do to win back ex Labour now Tory voters and probably pander to some of that demographic (which admittedly does exist - I just think it is smaller than what the media is making it out to be) instead of actually asking itself why regular Labour voters couldn't be bothered to turn out to vote for them.

Random thought: As a country, are we just turning into a polarised, pseudo-two-party system? One the one side the Tories, on the other side everybody else. And the Tories win by virtue of the 'everybody else' vote being split.

 

[bb21]

That is your choice and I try hard not to criticise people for expressing their democratic right even if it isn't choice I could make. Personally, I would have spoiled my paper. I have never voted Tory and I never will.

I really dislike the idea of any possibility of BNP getting in more than the Tories have it, so despite my opposition to practically everything the latter stood for, I would feel far worse if the former sneaked in by a couple of votes, however remote that possibility.

 

[DarloRich]

I really dislike the idea of any possibility of BNP getting in more than the Tories have it, so despite my opposition to practically everything the latter stood for, I would feel far worse if the former sneaked in by a couple of votes, however remote that possibility.

Fair enough. Like I said I might not like the choice made but the right to make and express the choice is more important.

TBH the rise of the actual far right is a worry. Perhaps it is another symptom of how confused we are as a country.

 

[takno]

The thing is, at least to me, their manifesto in 2019 did exactly that. A lot of recent Labour policies are actually pretty popular with the public. It is just the messaging and the way people see the party that needs to change (but sadly - especially the way people see the party, those things can take the longest to change).

The 2019 policy was just a lot too much, and while it did positively aim to achieve things, it tended towards more technocratic things like nationalisation. Nationalisation is a feature. In the case of the railways somebody else has been out there doing the selling, so it's a tolerably popular policy on it's own. When you say you're going to do the water people probably aren't worried, but it's difficult to see why they'd really be excited - the water is still going to end up coming out of the tap wet and broadly clear, and it probably won't even cost much less. When you start wittering on about doing internet as well at the last minute, people start to remember how bad BT were, and wondering where the policy came from, and whether saving a small amount on their own monthly bill is going to come at the cost of a massive tax hike to pay for it.

Basically, the 2019 manifesto was full of the sort of thing the public will let you get on with as long you do something to make them like and trust you, not the sort of thing you need to promise to make them like or trust you.

 

[Horizon22]

It's not an "othering" purity battle about who is the best and purest conservative. This is a fundamental difference.

Yes the Tories are much more likely to get behind their leader and suck up their differences; and they can be brutal but swift when they decide a change is in order. Labour unfortunately ever since Blair (maybe Brown) have had these differences spill out. If we had PR in this country Labour would probably be 2 parties, the Tories maybe even 3.