I've started this topic largely in response to the following post by @Belperpete, to avoid taking the class 197 thread too far off-topic.
One of the things I was crossing my fingers for in the 2018 re-franchising was that the ex-GA class 156s (I think it was nine units), which had received PRM mods, would have been brought it to suplement/replace ATW's 153s and for Landore depot to be taken over by the Wales & Borders franchise and used as a base for these (for use on Swansea-Pembrokeshire/Carmarthen services, and possibly the Heart Of Wales). The latter would depend on whether the 175s had been used in fixed 5-car pairs on Swansea-Manchester or left as individual units (in which case I'd have deployed the 2-car ones on the HOWL and Conwy valley - unfortunately the lack of end gangways and ETCS make them unsuitable for the Cambrian).
* in which case the 170s might have been great for the promissed Liverpool-Llandudno services, although I'm not sure how they could have been maintained - again I'm led to ponder the fragmented nature of franchising and think it might make more sense to deliver those using depots and units which currently fall under the Northern and/or TPE silo(s).
** bypassing Swansea and with very few stops, to both maintain through services to Cardiff in the event that the Manchester went with the 175s option and try to complete with the M4
For starters, there was (in my opinion at least) no pressing need to replace the class 175s and very little to be said against retaining the class 158s. Had TfW planned to keep those units on and ordered thirty new 3-car units to supplement them, they would have ended up with a slightly larger total fleet but far fewer new-build vehicles. That would have reduced the capital cost of the new fleet considerably, although since most stock is currently leased rather than purchased by the TOC (TfW in this case) I'm not sure what difference it would make to the Welsh Government's budget.Extra depots cost money. Buying more 197s costs money. TfW and the Welsh Assembly don't have a magic money pot. What should have been cut to afford the extra depots and larger fleet that some posters think should have been procured?
Arriva | Arriva | KeolisAmey | KeolisAmey | Rhydgaled | Rhydgaled | TfW 2024 (intent) | TfW 2024 (intent) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mark 3 coaches | 3 x four-coach sets | Mark 4 coaches | 3 x four-coach sets | Mark 4 coaches | 8 x 5-coach sets | Mark 4 coaches | 8 x 5-coach sets |
Class 158 (2-car) | 24 | Class 197 (2-car ETCS) | 21 | Class 158 (2-car) | 24 | Class 197 (2-car ETCS) | 21 |
Class 175 (2-car) | 11 | Class 197 (2-car) | 30 | Class 175 (2-car) | 11 | Class 197 (2-car) | 30 |
Class 175 (3-car) | 16 | Class 197 (3-car) | 26 | Class 175 (3-car) | 16 | Class 197 (3-car) | 26 |
Total Sets | 54 | Total Sets | 80 | New unit (3-car) | 29 | Total Sets | 80 |
(of which new-build) | 0 | (of which new-build) | 77 | Total Sets | 88 | (of which new-build) | 77 |
Total Vehicles | 130 | Total Vehicles | 192 | Total Vehicles | 229 | Total Vehicles | 220 |
(of which new-build) | 0 | 180 | 87 | 180 | |||
Total Toilets (excl. LHCS) | 118 | 103 | 205 | 103 |
...with the overriding reason being, of course, that new train orders are now all about battery electric or multi-mode (no more pure diesel).
Maybe more centre cars is something that could be got away with, as they wouldn't be "new trains" and therefore wouldn't be subject to the "no more new pure diesel trains" thing.
If this logic had been followed at the time (as, in hindsight, it should have been), the class 197 fleet would never have been ordered. At the time, I was so desperate for more express stock (in part to ensure sufficient high-quality units were available that things like 150s wouldn't have to stand in on long-distance services) that I would probably have been happy with a small fleet of pure DMUs, provided they were to a similar specification as the class 175s (but with the addition of unit end gangways) to supplement (rather than replace) the 175s and 158s. However in hindsight, a total ban on procurement of new diesel-only passenger stock should have been introduced long ago. When Jo Johnson announced the ambition to take all diesel-only trains off the track by 2040 in February 2018, construction of the class 195s had already commenced, and they will have barely passed 20 years old by 2040. Everything new (in this context) should be being built with the capacity to collect all it's power needs from OHLE (where available). While Johnson's announcement came too late to stop the 195s, I don't think the TfW franchise contract had been signed yet. The class 197 order should have been killed at that point.As I've said previously, they wouldn't be "more 197s" anyway, because new train orders are now all about battery electric (for non-electrified lines) or multi-mode (for both non-electrified and electrified lines) - no more pure diesel.
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Again, there won't be any more 197s, at least not entire units. Maybe they could get away with ordering more centre cars though.
Agreed, they shouldn't have tried to renew the entire fleet, although have TfW really admitted that?Frankly trying to renew the entire company's fleet in one go was a mistake (and TfW have admitted as such). They should just have renewed the Valleys fleet, kept the 175s and 158s for a bit longer, and supplemented with extra rolling stock. 180s for example, if anyone could make those things run reliably it would be Alstom at Chester.
One of the things I was crossing my fingers for in the 2018 re-franchising was that the ex-GA class 156s (I think it was nine units), which had received PRM mods, would have been brought it to suplement/replace ATW's 153s and for Landore depot to be taken over by the Wales & Borders franchise and used as a base for these (for use on Swansea-Pembrokeshire/Carmarthen services, and possibly the Heart Of Wales). The latter would depend on whether the 175s had been used in fixed 5-car pairs on Swansea-Manchester or left as individual units (in which case I'd have deployed the 2-car ones on the HOWL and Conwy valley - unfortunately the lack of end gangways and ETCS make them unsuitable for the Cambrian).
Not necessarily if you had a small new fleet (or even if the ex-GA 170s hadn't been needed elsewhere and TfW could have kept them*) and the small fleet of mark 4s to suplement them. As I hinted above, I would have either have wanted:There were only 27 175's vs now double that of 197's. So you'd still be getting 2 or 3 car 175's working Manchester services to North Wales and South Wales.
- nine 5-car pairs of class 175s (diagrammed to remain coupled all day) diagrammed on Swansea - Manchester (leaving two pairs spare at Chester and five single 175/1 units, some diagrammed for use aand others spare) or
- deployment of the 2-car 175s on the Heart Of Wales and Conwy Valley, perhaps with some of the 3-car sets being paired to run Holyhead-Manchester or Holyhead-Crewe-Birmingham fast services as six-car formations, fixed all day similar to the above
* in which case the 170s might have been great for the promissed Liverpool-Llandudno services, although I'm not sure how they could have been maintained - again I'm led to ponder the fragmented nature of franchising and think it might make more sense to deliver those using depots and units which currently fall under the Northern and/or TPE silo(s).
** bypassing Swansea and with very few stops, to both maintain through services to Cardiff in the event that the Manchester went with the 175s option and try to complete with the M4
Even then, TfW have been promissing more Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury services for years, and only 21 new units have been specified with ETCS, compared to 24 class 158s. I don't want the 197s getting anywhere near the fast services into Birmingham (the wide doors, lots of standing room, fewer toilets, faster dwell times concept makes alot more sense for the all-stations services currently run by West Midlands Trains) but:The 158's are still in the fleet and won't be going anywhere until the switch over to ETCS 197's.
- if the extra Aberystwyth workings are just going to be shuttles between there and Shrewsbury,
- since the mistake of building a large fleet of suburban DMUs (the 197s) has already been made,
- some 158s were unfortunately damaged in the collision (as you mentioned),
- the first morning service from Shrewsbury has been cut back to Welshpool due to TfW not having traincrew based in England who sign the Cambrian and the first eastbound from the Cambrian not reaching Shrewsbury early enough in the morning to bring the crews,
- 2-car 158s can get quite busy on the Cambrian mainline at times and
- the depot building at Machynlleth doesn't seem to be long enough to take 3-car units: