TFW Rail Services to be taken in house by Welsh Government

[DB]

Link to story here

In the quote from Ken Skates, he says:

Our plan for Metro systems across Wales

Really? Metro systems are only appropriate for fairly sizeable urban areas - so Cardiff and Swansea, possibly Newport - but surely that's it? There's nowhere else in Wales large enough for it to be appropriate. Or is 'Metro' just their current buzzword which has to be used at every opportunity?

 

[pdeaves]

Has the service 'takeover' (for want of a better term) actually happened, or was it just speculation for the time being? I notice the TfW Rail website still has KeolisAmey copyright in the footer, though I appreciate changing that won't be number one priority.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Staggeringly vague.
Keolis Amey are still involved, but under the control of TfW, and continue with the infrastructure contract.
Presumably this means they will be a subcontractor for rail operation, without revenue (and maybe fares) control.
An "OLR" situation is not mentioned, and it seems well short of "nationalisation".
Keolis Amey are still in operational control until 21 February (so 4 months notice).

I think this is worth highlighting from Ken Skates' announcement:

I want to be clear with members that there are some difficult days ahead and some difficult decisions ahead as we come to terms with the new economic realities of coronavirus. Many public services across Wales are now more expensive to deliver than they were prior to the crisis and this is true of bus and rail as a result of the sudden reduction in patronage, which is an important funding source for the network.

 

[emoaconr]

In the quote from Ken Skates, he says:



Really? Metro systems are only appropriate for fairly sizeable urban areas - so Cardiff and Swansea, possibly Newport - but surely that's it? There's nowhere else in Wales large enough for it to be appropriate. Or is 'Metro' just their current buzzword which has to be used at every opportunity?

Wrexham and Deeside form what is dubbed the North Wales Metro, however I see it more as a cousin of Merseytravel rather than something separate.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Could that be a veiled threat to the Conwy Valley?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Wrexham and Deeside form what is dubbed the North Wales Metro, however I see it more as a cousin of Merseytravel rather than something separate.

There's actually another WG announcement today on the North Wales Metro.

North Wales metro schemes benefit from over £11 million | GOV.WALES

As part of the North Wales Metro over £11 million has been allocated to schemes across the region to support sustainable ways of travelling, improve safety and reduce carbon emissions Transport and North Wales Minister Ken Skates announced today.

gov.wales

It's mainly tinkering round the edges, and by no means all on rail.
There's money for new electric buses, including for the Conwy Valley.
Makes you wonder about the future of the rail line.

This includes £3.6 million for six electric buses and provision of charging points for a new TrawsCymru T22 between Caernarfon – Porthmadog – Blaenau Ffestiniog and a T19 TrawsCymru Connect bus service between Blaenau Ffestiniog and Llandudno. The new services and investment follows detailed planning work with Gwynedd Council to strengthen the quality and attractiveness of key bus services in the area.

 

[Rhydgaled]

The upgrade and day to day management of the Valley lines infrastructure was awarded separately and is being managed by a separate company, led by Amey, 'Amey-Keolis Infrastructure Limited', and that remains unaffected.

A statement is now up on the Welsh Govt website, here are the 3 key points:

Written Statement: Future of Rail update (22 October 2020) | GOV.WALES

Ken Skates MS, Minister for Economy, Transport and North Wales

gov.wales

Very confusing. It's clear that the Operator of Last Resort is taking over something but I'm struggling to understand precisely what that is since KeolisAmey are still (for now at least) expected to stick around long-term in some capacity. Your post helps clarfy things a little by pointing out the existance of 'Amey-Keolis Infrastructure Limited'. Thus we have:

• Wales & Borders diesel services - transfered to Operator of Last Resort
• Core Valley Lines infrustructure - remaining owned by Welsh Government and managed by 'Amey-Keolis Infrastructure Limited'
• Cardiff Metro train services - ???????

The mention of preserving vertical integration makes me wonder whether KeolisAmey retain operation of train services on the Metro - a resurection of the seperate ValleyLines franchise?

Really? Metro systems are only appropriate for fairly sizeable urban areas - so Cardiff and Swansea, possibly Newport - but surely that's it? There's nowhere else in Wales large enough for it to be appropriate. Or is 'Metro' just their current buzzword which has to be used at every opportunity?

If I recall correctly the Welsh Government and/or TfW have talked about a 'South Wales Metro' a 'North Wales Metro' and a 'Swansea Bay Metro'. The latter is only a vauge aspiration, the first stages of the first two are/were committed in the KeolisAmey franchise.

Personally, I think the whole idea of the 'Swansea Bay City Region' makes no sense. If I recall correctly it includes Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire which aren't conurbanations. I would instead refer to a North-East Wales Metro and a South-East Wales Metro (which would be expanded to include Swansea with the Swanline service to Cardiff being part of it along with a network of new local lines around Swansea (such as the Vale Of Neath line)).

Could that be a veiled threat to the Conwy Valley?

Could what be a veiled threat to the Conwy Valley? The seperate announcement about a TrawsCymru Connect bus service being introduced? Or is there something in the franchise announcement threatening the Conwy Valley too?

Several other TrawsCymru / TrawsCymru Connect routes have been the result of bus operators going bust and the Welsh Government stepping in to fund continued operation of the service. I wonder if that is what has happened this time rather than a deliberate threat to the Conwy Valley line?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Could what be a veiled threat to the Conwy Valley? The seperate announcement about a TrawsCymru Connect bus service being introduced? Or is there something in the franchise announcement threatening the Conwy Valley too?

The thing about "difficult decisions", I meant?

Electric buses on the T19 certainly calls into question the filthy DMU on the Valley...

 

[Dai Corner]

The thing about "difficult decisions", I meant?

Electric buses on the T19 certainly calls into question the filthy DMU on the Valley...

If they're going to close the line I hope they tell Network Rail before they spend £millions repairing it after the next flood.

Moderator note: speculation regarding the Conwy line has been moved to https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...-hold-for-the-conwy-line.210523/#post-4833349

 

[pdeaves]

Some clues to the new structure may be found in this article: https://www.railtechnologymagazine....rders-rail-franchise-put-under-public-control

Specifically, this bit:

includes a new partnership between Transport for Wales, Keolis and Amey.

and this bit:

we continue a partnership approach between TfW and Keolis Amey

However, in between we read (in imperfect English):

We have decided to transfer of day to day rail services to a new publicly owned subsidiary of Transport for Wales

I would venture that this effectively is KA under a new contractual arrangement continuing to run the service specified by TfW with TfW taking responsibility (not actually running trains). Rather like the EMAs, I suppose.

 

[Domh245]

Rather like the EMAs, I suppose.

That's the impression I've got from the last few posts now that there's a bit more information about it!

 

[arfortune]

In the quote from Ken Skates, he says:



Really? Metro systems are only appropriate for fairly sizeable urban areas - so Cardiff and Swansea, possibly Newport - but surely that's it? There's nowhere else in Wales large enough for it to be appropriate. Or is 'Metro' just their current buzzword which has to be used at every opportunity?

There's three current Metro schemes in development - South Wales (Cardiff, Newport and Valleys), Swansea and North Wales Metro. Metro doesn't just mean high-frequency rail, it's part of the plan to increase overall connectivity and improve public transport overall.

 

[Mollman]

Very confusing. It's clear that the Operator of Last Resort is taking over something but I'm struggling to understand precisely what that is since KeolisAmey are still (for now at least) expected to stick around long-term in some capacity. Your post helps clarfy things a little by pointing out the existance of 'Amey-Keolis Infrastructure Limited'. Thus we have:

• Wales & Borders diesel services - transfered to Operator of Last Resort
• Core Valley Lines infrustructure - remaining owned by Welsh Government and managed by 'Amey-Keolis Infrastructure Limited'
• Cardiff Metro train services - ???????

The mention of preserving vertical integration makes me wonder whether KeolisAmey retain operation of train services on the Metro - a resurection of the seperate ValleyLines franchise?

Basically the TfW Rail (Amey-Keolis) which is the TOC and responsible for running all services under the Wales & Borders franchise, including the South Wales Metro, is being replaced by TfW Rail (Welsh Government via TfW). However as the WG doesn't think TfW has enough expertise in running a public transport system Keolis Amey are being kept on as consultants to advise them on certain areas, nice work if you can get it!

 

[arfortune]

Has the service 'takeover' (for want of a better term) actually happened, or was it just speculation for the time being? I notice the TfW Rail website still has KeolisAmey copyright in the footer, though I appreciate changing that won't be number one priority.

It will happen in February 2021.

 

[DB]

There's three current Metro schemes in development - South Wales (Cardiff, Newport and Valleys), Swansea and North Wales Metro. Metro doesn't just mean high-frequency rail, it's part of the plan to increase overall connectivity and improve public transport overall.

Thanks - it's really not very helpful of them to commandeer a term which is reasonabl well-understood and use it to mean something different!

 

[Rhydgaled]

The thing about "difficult decisions", I meant?

Ah. Although given the political fallout a full closure would result in that's more-likely to mean cuts to service frequencies (or postponement of upgrades such as extending Liverpool-Chester services into Wales) particularly with an election coming up in 2021 (if it isn't postponed due to the pandemic).

Electric buses on the T19 certainly calls into question the filthy DMU on the Valley...

It does, although only a bit over a month ago the Welsh Government revealed they had long-term aspirations for half-hourly services on the Conwy Valley and an extension to Trawsfynydd (shown on this map) so at this point if they are considering closure they likely intend it to be a temporary one.

 

[Neptune]

It will certainly be interesting to see how it pans out. Northern hasn’t exactly been a total success story thusfar, though to be fair they weren’t dealt the best pack of cards in the first place.

I know, that worldwide pandemic that kicked in less than a month after OLR took over Northern is absolutely no excuse.

 

[thenorthern]

How are the Welsh Government planning to run Transport for Wales railway? Will it be run on a not for profit basis or as a commercial company?

Realistically given the government cuts that will inevitably come after the pandemic is over governments should be looking at privatisation rather than nationalisation as there will be a shortage of money.

I kind of get the feeling that the Welsh Government is only nationalising TfW because it likes nationalisation. The Current Welsh Government is rather left wing even for a Labour government, the current First Minister Mark Drakeford is considered very left wing even for Labour.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

There's three current Metro schemes in development - South Wales (Cardiff, Newport and Valleys), Swansea and North Wales Metro. Metro doesn't just mean high-frequency rail, it's part of the plan to increase overall connectivity and improve public transport overall.

The North Wales Metro is something of a misnomer anyway. It's really a plan to improve connectivity between North East Wales and the North West of England who's economies are pretty integrated. It's a sensible ambition but it doesn't do anything much for anywhere west of Afon Conwy

 

[Dai Corner]

How are the Welsh Government planning to run Transport for Wales railway? Will it be run on a not for profit basis or as a commercial company?

Realistically given the government cuts that will inevitably come after the pandemic is over governments should be looking at privatisation rather than nationalisation as there will be a shortage of money.

I kind of get the feeling that the Welsh Government is only nationalising TfW because it likes nationalisation. The Current Welsh Government is rather left wing even for a Labour government, the current First Minister Mark Drakeford is considered very left wing even for Labour.

The Welsh Government certainly won't make any profit out of it, but Keolis (now as consultants rather than franchisees) and the train leasing companies will. The really significant change was a few months ago when the WG took on the revenue risk and started paying KeoilsAmey a management fee (like the DfT and English TOCs).

 

[baza585]

Lundinium is waiting for Ken Skates to turn up, cap in hand, wanting a bail out from Rishi.

It won't be long. Question is who Skates will blame when it all goes wrong now he can't (justifiably) blame KA.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The North Wales Metro is something of a misnomer anyway. It's really a plan to improve connectivity between North East Wales and the North West of England who's economies are pretty integrated. It's a sensible ambition but it doesn't do anything much for anywhere west of Afon Conwy

It's also not really a metro, though I wonder if someone from TfW went to Switzerland and noticed them applying the "S-Bahn" principles to infrequent rural services (new rolling stock, Takt etc) and thought, probably correctly, that it'd work here too.

 

[Andrew*Debbie]

My first thought is that this doesn't bode well for South Wales metro

From today's BBC news article:

Ministers pledged to honour commitments worth more than £1bn to buy new trains and build the south Wales Metro.
"That will be delivered," Mr Skates said.

Transport for Wales rail services to be nationalised

Ministers step in to "stabilise the network and keep it running" as income plummets due to Covid.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[py_megapixel]

Realistically given the government cuts that will inevitably come after the pandemic is over governments should be looking at privatisation rather than nationalisation as there will be a shortage of money.

Leaving aside the private vs national debate, possibly with hindsight the Welsh government shouldn't have spent all that money on replacing perfectly adequate rolling stock... obviously enough to send the Sprinters and Pacers packing was in order, plus some extra stock for a capacity boost especially on longer distance routes, but there really was no need for full fleet replacement.
Then to add insult to injury, they decided that a repaint and refurb of rolling stock planned to stay for a few years tops was also needed.

I usually take the view that reasonably high government spending on public transport is a good thing, but TfW have frankly been completely irresponsible with money ever since the franchise was transferred to the Welsh Government.

 

[Llandudno]

The North Wales Metro is something of a misnomer anyway. It's really a plan to improve connectivity between North East Wales and the North West of England who's economies are pretty integrated. It's a sensible ambition but it doesn't do anything much for anywhere west of Afon Conwy

West of Shotton maybe more accurate!

 

[cle]

Are the 230s confirmed to be doubling the frequency as yet?

And will Liverpool to South Wales be every two hours (via Halton) - with an hourly North Wales? Or are they hourly with a split at Chester? I recall reading about Shrewsbury and Wrexham terminators too. Would be great if Halton could run twice per hour -once more express, and once more regional with Helby and Frodsham.

 

[Speed43125]

I usually take the view that reasonably high government spending on public transport is a good thing, but TfW have frankly been completely irresponsible with money ever since the franchise was transferred to the Welsh Government.

I suppose you're talking about the CAF stock? And the converted EMUs (230s and 769s)?

The view at the time was obviously that the stock was old, not particularly well looked after and a step change would be great, as you say hindsight really is 20/20 (especially with the cheaply specced 197s).
I can't see any of it changing though, everything is either too far developed, or contractually obliged.

Perhaps this 'reckless' spending may have contributed to the rail services being taken in house.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Are the 230s confirmed to be doubling the frequency as yet?
And will Liverpool to South Wales be every two hours (via Halton) - with an hourly North Wales? Or are they hourly with a split at Chester? I recall reading about Shrewsbury and Wrexham terminators too. Would be great if Halton could run twice per hour -once more express, and once more regional with Helby and Frodsham.

That will only emerge in time.
Their main problem is reaching a stable funding position so they can budget forward.
The new train orders will stand as they are contracted with the suppliers, but how they are used is now up to TfW as the franchise commitments will fall away.

 

[Djgr]

It's also not really a metro, though I wonder if someone from TfW went to Switzerland and noticed them applying the "S-Bahn" principles to infrequent rural services (new rolling stock, Takt etc) and thought, probably correctly, that it'd work here too.

I do feel quite a few people need to take a reality check through taking a number of rides up and down the Borderlands line.

 

[Bletchleyite]

West of Shotton maybe more accurate!

S-Bahn-Chester?

I do feel quite a few people need to take a reality check through taking a number of rides up and down the Borderlands line.

Which is still an oddity, as north of Shotton it's a bit like Kirkby-Wigan in being something that really should be part of Merseyrail and serves primarily urban areas with considerable commuter demand to Liverpool, but south of it it's a rural branch line which doesn't have much more potential than the Conwy Valley, give or take Wrexham General-Central which is a bit more like the Stourbridge Shuttle but less frequent. A line of many parts!