TFW Stock Shortages

[Jez]

I don't think all of the 153s would go North. They are meant to be going on the Conwy Valley and Wrexham-Bidson line which even if worked in pairs is 6 units. Would a single 153 be ok on Conwy Valley? If so it could be 5 needed up North. They will also be needed on Heart of Wales, Crewe local, Cardiff Bay and City Line. Will Pembroke Dock also see more 153s if they want to free up the 150s for the Valley lines?

 

[krus_aragon]

Would a single 153 be ok on Conwy Valley?

Definitely for the winter. We'll need a second carriage when the tourist season starts again.

 

[Cardiff123]

I don't think all of the 153s would go North. They are meant to be going on the Conwy Valley and Wrexham-Bidson line which even if worked in pairs is 6 units. Would a single 153 be ok on Conwy Valley? If so it could be 5 needed up North. They will also be needed on Heart of Wales, Crewe local, Cardiff Bay and City Line. Will Pembroke Dock also see more 153s if they want to free up the 150s for the Valley lines?

The original plan when Keolis Amey took over was for 153s to head to West Wales

 

[craigybagel]

I don't think all of the 153s would go North. They are meant to be going on the Conwy Valley and Wrexham-Bidson line which even if worked in pairs is 6 units. Would a single 153 be ok on Conwy Valley? If so it could be 5 needed up North. They will also be needed on Heart of Wales, Crewe local, Cardiff Bay and City Line. Will Pembroke Dock also see more 153s if they want to free up the 150s for the Valley lines?

Also expected to go on the Crewe - Chester shuttle, hopefully as a 2 car. Liverpool is expected to go either 158 or 175, thus removing all 150s from the North. That was supposedly the plan anyway.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Working on everything being in place in December there will not be enough work in the North for all the 153s especially as more are expected increasing the fleet to 22 so they will still be present in the south. Without detailed counting, probably over 20 Pacers will be required. The total figure would be more like 25 to allow for the Maintenance Spares. What actually happens will have to be pure conjecture at this stage with much stock still to transfer in.

I don't think all of the 153s would go North. They are meant to be going on the Conwy Valley and Wrexham-Bidson line which even if worked in pairs is 6 units. Would a single 153 be ok on Conwy Valley? If so it could be 5 needed up North. They will also be needed on Heart of Wales, Crewe local, Cardiff Bay and City Line. Will Pembroke Dock also see more 153s if they want to free up the 150s for the Valley lines?

If the idea is to get all the 150s on the core valleys then, with 170s doing Maesteg, Ebbw Vale and Cheltenham what does that leave? :

• Conwy Valley (2 153s in summer, 1x 153 in winter)
  
• Chester - Liverpool (?)
  
• Chester - Crewe (2x 153?)
  
• Wrexham - Bidston (4x 153?)
• Crewe - Shrewsbury (1x 153?)
• Shrewsbury - Swansea (HOWL) (3x 153 (one 2-car and one solo)?)
• Swanline (?)
• Swansea - Pembroke Dock (6x 153)

I make that 18x class 153 listed above. Anything else?

 

[craigybagel]

If the idea is to get all the 150s on the core valleys then, with 170s doing Maesteg, Ebbw Vale and Cheltenham what does that leave? :

• Conwy Valley (2 153s in summer, 1x 153 in winter)
  
• Chester - Liverpool (?)
  
• Chester - Crewe (2x 153?)
  
• Wrexham - Bidston (4x 153?)
• Crewe - Shrewsbury (1x 153?)
• Shrewsbury - Swansea (HOWL) (3x 153 (one 2-car and one solo)?)
• Swanline (?)
• Swansea - Pembroke Dock (6x 153)

I make that 18x class 153 listed above. Anything else?

AIUI, and as I mentioned above, Chester Liverpool was meant to be going to 158/175. There was talk of Swanline being 170s. With the interworking between the HOWL and Crewe Shrewsbury locals you can keep that to just 3 units between them - although whether or not the reduced capacity on the PRM modified 153s will cope is another matter. Similarly Pembroke Dock has been single 153s in Winter in the past, so you could keep that down to just 3 units not 6 for now.

What I will say for definite is that TfW have already shown that they're prepared to change their plans and be flexible where stock allocations are concerned, so it's probably best to just "wait and see" until December.

 

[Jez]

If there are to be 22 x 153 in total assuming 3 are booked for maintenance requirements each day (just my guess) then that would leave 19.

1 x Conwy Valley
4 x on Wrexham-Bidson (2 pairs)
2 x Crewe-Chester (1 pair)
5 for Heart of Wales/Crewe Local/Swanlines which all interwork with each other
3 x Pembroke Dock
1 x Cardiff Bay
3 x City Line

So there would only be enough for single cars on City Line unless they use pacers or 150s on Pembroke Dock or somewhere else until alternatives are sorted. And in Summer Pembroke Dock and Conwy Valley need increased capacity but I expect they wont worry about that until May at the earliest.

If all Maesteg/Cheltenham Spa and Ebbw Vale go over to 170s that should also free up at least 2 of the 3 158s booked for South Wales which in theory could do Liverpool-Chester. It would make sense to keep one 158 for the South as they will still cover I assume on Manchester-South Wales from time to time as well as the Saturday and Sunday diagrams.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Pembroke Dock has been single 153s in Winter in the past, so you could keep that down to just 3 units not 6 for now.

While it's true that Pembroke Dock has been single car in winter previously (and I'm not aware of there having been complaints of overcrowding then) I would be concerned about the reduced capacity of the PRM modified examples. It would probably still be fine between Tenby and Pembroke Dock (which I doubt fills a 150 very often even in summer) and maybe even Carmarthen to Tenby in winter but a solo PRM 153 on its own between Carmarthen and Swansea would be worrying even in winter I think. Perhaps the way to do it for this winter is a pair of 153s Swansea-Carmarthen with one detaching at Carmarthen to run forward to Pembroke Dock; and hope the 769s and/or 230s are in service by May to free up units to bring the Pembroke Docks back up to two cars throughout. Cardiff Bay and/or City Line would need to be a Pacer or 150 to release the extra unit(s) required to make the Pembroke Docks up to 2-car between Swansea and Carmarthen in the meantime.

 

[anthony263]

Tfw did state recent5the 170s would be on maesteg to Cheltenham and ebbw vale as well as Swanline services

 

[anthony263]

Tfw will also have s lite bit of relief on from December when one of the 37s will be rostered to operate on saturdays as well.

From what I've read online the diagram is :
0608 Rhymney to Cardiff central
1746 Cardiff central to Rhymney.

 

[Jez]

While it's true that Pembroke Dock has been single car in winter previously (and I'm not aware of there having been complaints of overcrowding then) I would be concerned about the reduced capacity of the PRM modified examples. It would probably still be fine between Tenby and Pembroke Dock (which I doubt fills a 150 very often even in summer) and maybe even Carmarthen to Tenby in winter but a solo PRM 153 on its own between Carmarthen and Swansea would be worrying even in winter I think. Perhaps the way to do it for this winter is a pair of 153s Swansea-Carmarthen with one detaching at Carmarthen to run forward to Pembroke Dock; and hope the 769s and/or 230s are in service by May to free up units to bring the Pembroke Docks back up to two cars throughout. Cardiff Bay and/or City Line would need to be a Pacer or 150 to release the extra unit(s) required to make the Pembroke Docks up to 2-car between Swansea and Carmarthen in the meantime.

I think a single 153 is fine for Pembroke Dock-Swansea in winter even between Swansea-Carmarthen they aren't that busy apart from peak time.

I hope the from December timetable change the pacers are just kept on Valley Lines and Cardiff local routes. I hope we don't continue to see them on Swanline and the Fishguard boat train that they seem to be booked to do recently!

 

[anthony263]

Dont forget some Pacers were ordered for the swanline services when it commenced

 

[Welshman]

In the meanwhile, the Conwy Valley is in the hands of Llew Jones Coaches again today.
"Problem at the depot" according to RTT.
"More trains than usual needing repairs at the same time" according to TfWJourneycheck.

 

[Envoy]

I take it that you guys know that the Cambrian Line will be on Channel 5 on Friday 15 November 2019 at 8pm:>https://www.channel5.com/show/worlds-most-scenic-railway-journeys/

 

[MarkWiles]

The Daily Post reporting on trains being replaced by buses on the Conwy Valley.

"Travellers on a North Wales rail line have been forced to take a bus due to a shortage of trains.

All trains on the Conwy Valley line between Blaenau Ffestiniog and Llandudno Junction have been replaced by buses after rail bosses admitted "more trains than usual need repairs at the same time".

One passenger told North Wales Live: "If I wanted to go by bus, I would have taken the bus. I choose to go by train because it's more comfortable with better facilities.

"It's not the first time the Conwy Valley line has been closed this year for one reason or another, and this is the thin end of the wedge."

He added the line is due to be closed for more than three weeks later this month for further track repairs. "That's more disruption we don't need," said the passenger."I now plan my travel to allow additional time to transfer at Llandudno Junction"

Rail operator Transport for Wales (TfW) are currently making a £40m investment in new trains, but some of these have been delayed.

Class 230 trains were to have been introduced on the Conwy Valley line but these have not yet been delivered to TfW.

In order to reduce overcrowding on South Wales lines, the two carriage Class 150s currently used on the line are to be replaced by a single carriage Class 153 instead.

Last autumn, urgent repairs had to be carried out on a number of TfW trains and bus replacement services were introduced on some lines, including the Conwy Valley line for several weeks.

Responding to the latest situation, a TfW spokesman said: "We apologise for the disruption to some services on our network this morning.

"We're currently using all our available rolling stock every weekday, and this is allocated to services based on our passenger numbers in order to meet demand as best we can.

"We know that our customers deserve a better service, which is why we’re working hard to introduce any additional capacity available.

"A number of trains are currently out of service for repair or refurbishment, as part of our £40m investment to ensure our existing fleet is reliable and meets accessibility requirements."

OK it's the Daily Post, which can have a nodding acquaintance with the truth at times but it is an interesting article and suggests things are going to be on a knife edge for a while.

 

[tomos dafis]

The Daily Post reporting on trains being replaced by buses on the Conwy Valley.

"Travellers on a North Wales rail line have been forced to take a bus due to a shortage of trains.

All trains on the Conwy Valley line between Blaenau Ffestiniog and Llandudno Junction have been replaced by buses after rail bosses admitted "more trains than usual need repairs at the same time".

One passenger told North Wales Live: "If I wanted to go by bus, I would have taken the bus. I choose to go by train because it's more comfortable with better facilities.

"It's not the first time the Conwy Valley line has been closed this year for one reason or another, and this is the thin end of the wedge."

He added the line is due to be closed for more than three weeks later this month for further track repairs. "That's more disruption we don't need," said the passenger."I now plan my travel to allow additional time to transfer at Llandudno Junction"

Rail operator Transport for Wales (TfW) are currently making a £40m investment in new trains, but some of these have been delayed.

Class 230 trains were to have been introduced on the Conwy Valley line but these have not yet been delivered to TfW.

In order to reduce overcrowding on South Wales lines, the two carriage Class 150s currently used on the line are to be replaced by a single carriage Class 153 instead.

Last autumn, urgent repairs had to be carried out on a number of TfW trains and bus replacement services were introduced on some lines, including the Conwy Valley line for several weeks.

Responding to the latest situation, a TfW spokesman said: "We apologise for the disruption to some services on our network this morning.

"We're currently using all our available rolling stock every weekday, and this is allocated to services based on our passenger numbers in order to meet demand as best we can.

"We know that our customers deserve a better service, which is why we’re working hard to introduce any additional capacity available.

"A number of trains are currently out of service for repair or refurbishment, as part of our £40m investment to ensure our existing fleet is reliable and meets accessibility requirements."

OK it's the Daily Post, which can have a nodding acquaintance with the truth at times but it is an interesting article and suggests things are going to be on a knife edge for a while.

Also reports on Wales Online this AM that serious rush-hour problems on valley lines and locals around Cardiff - overcrowding due to short formations because of lack of available stock and delays/cancellations due to broken down train between Barry and Cardiff - either a clapped out pacer or ageing-but-still-to keep-going until-2022/3 150 - I can't see much, if any light at the end of the tunnel at present there is just not enough reliable traction to service the present timetable - also cancellations/curtailments in recent days due to shortage of train crew - and not just at the weekend - so staff shortages as well?

 

[Chris217]

Going from strength to strength then....
In the wrong direction

 

[Cardiff123]

TfW are in a very dire situation right now but what can they do? Apart from the DMUs they've sourced that are on their way, no DMUs are available from anywhere else. Although not in anyway ideal, 144s from Northern or 143s from GWR would help give an immediate capacity boost, but as we know, they are now unexpectedly being held on to.
And the less said about the 230s and 769s the better.
TfW are literally fire fighting right now. A combination of dealing with the toxic legacy left to them by Arriva, the fast approaching PRM deadline that Arriva did nothing to prepare for, the total failure of the 769 project to meet its objectives to cover for units away for PRM mods, the absence of the 230s, and no other DMUs available from anywhere - means there are no other options.

 

[L401CJF]

Only one thing for it then, more 37/4s and MK2s anyone?

 

[MarkWiles]

The PRM deadline has been known about for years, and I'm sure that the contract with Arriva would have had some clause in it about legislative change and who pays for it. Arriva were not perfect by any means but their contract was set by the UK Government's Department for Roads on the basis of no growth, so I don't blame Arriva for asking for cash every time someone wanted to change the rules.

The point is what were the ROSCOs doing to ensure their stock complied with PRM regulations? The industry collectively has had plenty of time to initiate a planned programme of upgrades for stock remaining in service instead of, it seems running around like panicked chickens trying to catch up. As for the late delivery of stock - what happened to project management and progress meetings?

I just don't buy this mad rush to try and sort out what should have been commenced within six months of the PRM deadline being announced. There really isn't any excuse for the 150s not being fully PRM compliant by now, or for that matter the 153s as these units had a medium term future. The Nodders, OK, no point in doing them, and they have fallen foul of the Class 769 lack of project management but the industry does appear, superficially at least, to have sat on it's behind with it's fingers in their ears going "la,la,la" in some instances.

 

[Envoy]

It looks like the 769 project is a complete failure? Knowing the dire situation in ATW days, why did the Welsh Government not get on sooner with the process of sorting out who was going to run the ‘franchise’? Had they done that, then surely the orders for new trains could have been made sooner?

Given the state of things today, would it not be possible to get more of the ex-East Coast Mk 4’s with Class 67 haulage onto the main line routes such as The Marches? That would free up some 175’s that could even be used on the Heart of Wales which would release 2 or 3 150’s for the valleys? The overcrowding on the main line would also be relieved by using some Mark 4 sets. (Yes, I do know that driver & guard training would be necessary and that we still are awaiting the arrival of Mark 4’s for Cardiff to Holyhead).

 

[ValleyLines142]

Been upgraded to a 150 this morning on the City Line! 150227 on the 0704 from Radyr. What have we done to deserve this royalty!

 

[Parallel]

To be honest, I’m wondering if the WG/TFW should have specified for the Class 143 units to be made PRM compliant - not great for political reasons but good for additional capacity in the mean time. January is looking very bleak at the moment in Wales. If TfW took GWR and Northern’s 143s/144s right now, it would leave those franchises in trouble instead. If they’ve applied for a derogation, could they factor in obtaining additional 143s from GWR after the deadline?

Until new stock is ready, 150s will be the only stock permitted north of Radyr, but some services on that route are in need of 4 coach trains, especially at peak time. It’s not looking great...

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

It looks like the 769 project is a complete failure? Knowing the dire situation in ATW days, why did the Welsh Government not get on sooner with the process of sorting out who was going to run the ‘franchise’? Had they done that, then surely the orders for new trains could have been made sooner?

It's a good question but to be fair the Welsh Government couldn't move on the franchise until the negotiations with the DfT for it's devolution were complete. In the interim the WG did order addditional stock for who ever took over the franchise. The problem is that they were 769s.

It seems to me that blame for the current position can't be pinned on any one actor. The Welsh Government, Porterbrook, Arriva and the DfT all have to shoulder some of the responsibility.

Ironicaly the body least responsible for the mess is probably TfW who are copping the flack and having to try and sort out the mess.

 

[Cardiff123]

It's quite concerning that this tweet has a picture showing the 230s for TfW still being built
https://twitter.com/swalesmetroprof/status/1194142992547889152?s=19

 

[Chris217]

The PRM deadline dates were forged in stone by law for all operators to abide to whether they operated new or old stock forcing the said operators to spend millions on upgrades or fleet replacements.
You honestly believe a company like Arriva Trains Wales who saw this coming were going to fork out all the costs when they had an aging fleet of trains?
A private company not even in it for the long run....really?
You cannot say we didnt see this farce coming?
It seems people will complain regardless because they can do for any reason.
Expensive train tickets gives them that god given right.
The valley lines had,for many years trains without toilets.
Doesn't anyone remember our lovely C3s
(Class 116 DMUs)?
No one complained back then,and there were no stock shortages.
Ok,the valley lines network didnt run as intensely like it does today I admit.


Even up here in Liverpool, Merseyrail operate their entire network of services with trains without toilets..so I suspect it cannot be just about toilets?
But the law has made it about toilets and everything else that goes with it like wheelchair spaces and easy access.

IMO,rail travel has become so overpriced and because of this,passengers expect that much more.
Banging on about Pacers,non DDA compliant toilets etc is why we are in this situation.
If rail travel was inexpensive then no one would compain as much about toilet designs etc.
You only have to look around the world.
Some countries operate old trains that ain't DDA compliant,but because it's cheap to travel,unlike here,theres little complaint.
Although saying that,I have seen videos of foreign trains that look shocking and slow.
Investment always costs money.
If you want it,then you have to pay for it like everything else in life.
Whether through higher fares or shorter trains!

Either way,someone will always complain.



You carry on drinking your tea now lol.

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

I have edited some first ministers questions that involve rolling stock shortages.



https://www.senedd.tv/Meeting/Clip/...50cab1fc74?inPoint=00:23:45&outPoint=00:28:40

 

[Cardiff123]

I have edited some first ministers questions that involve rolling stock shortages.

https://www.senedd.tv/Meeting/Clip/89b623f0

The clip you made is not working. But looking at the transcript from FMQs, the First Minister's comments can be summed up as:
"We couldn't do anything when warned in 2013 about the need to get trains ready for PRM deadline, because of the no growth ATW franchise that Welsh Govt had no control over"
"It's Porterbrook's fault that we are having to apply for derogations to continue using Pacers into next year, because they haven't delivered the 769s on time as promised. We don't want to use Pacers, but Porterbrook's failings have given us no choice."

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

I have edited some first ministers questions that involve rolling stock shortages.



https://www.senedd.tv/Meeting/Clip/...50cab1fc74?inPoint=00:23:45&outPoint=00:28:40

I have changed the link so it works now and is edited to only the Tfw rolling stock questions.

 

[Cardiff123]

I have changed the link so it works now and is edited to only the Tfw rolling stock questions.

Thanks. Tbh it's quite worrying that TfW don't have derogations granted for Pacers and the non-compliant 150s/153s/158s yet. A serious crisis could be looming if DfT plays hardball.