Thameslink 2023 timetable

[Failed Unit]

ok ignore the year, but does anyone think that Thameslink may be thinned out a little now. The plan was off-peak

2. Bedford - Gatwick
2. Bedford - Brighton
2. Luton - Rainham
2. Kentish Town - Orpington.
2. St Albans - Sutton via Wimbledon
2. St Albans - Sutton direct.
2. Peterborough - Horsham
2. Cambridge - Brighton
2. Cambridge - Maidstone. (Never implemented)
2. Blackfriars- Sevenoaks.

as passenger numbers are dropping and dft are looking to make savings. What are the views of some trimming.

Rainham going? (As it doesn’t really fit and people have often said that 10 cars are better for the south eastern end)

maybe doing Cambridge- Orpington and forgetting about Maidstone. (I assume one day they want the platform back at kings cross)

i know history will show us what happens when you move dedicated units away (like the 319s) to Southern. But can you really see this level of service staying?

 

[JonathanH]

as passenger numbers are dropping and dft are looking to make savings. What are the views of some trimming.

There is a suggestion elsewhere that it is more likely that the Thameslink services continue and it is the Southern / GN / Southeastern services on the same routes that will be cut back.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

There is a suggestion elsewhere that it is more likely that the Thameslink services continue and it is the Southern / GN / Southeastern services on the same routes that will be cut back.

Thameslink aren't being cut back at all apart from the Bedford - Littlehampton peak services and a reduction in the amount of Bedford - East Grinstead services.

If anything there will be an increase in Thameslink services come May 22 with the introduction of Welwyn - Sevenoaks and the second Kings Cross - Royston train returning to Cambridge.

ok ignore the year, but does anyone think that Thameslink may be thinned out a little now. The plan was off-peak

2. Bedford - Gatwick
2. Bedford - Brighton
2. Luton - Rainham
2. Kentish Town - Orpington.
2. St Albans - Sutton via Wimbledon
2. St Albans - Sutton direct.
2. Peterborough - Horsham
2. Cambridge - Brighton
2. Cambridge - Maidstone. (Never implemented)
2. Blackfriars- Sevenoaks.

as passenger numbers are dropping and dft are looking to make savings. What are the views of some trimming.

Rainham going? (As it doesn’t really fit and people have often said that 10 cars are better for the south eastern end)

maybe doing Cambridge- Orpington and forgetting about Maidstone. (I assume one day they want the platform back at kings cross)

i know history will show us what happens when you move dedicated units away (like the 319s) to Southern. But can you really see this level of service staying?

Yes I can. Southern will bear the brunt of GTR's cuts.

Cambridge - Maidstone East will never happen.

 

[bramling]

There is a suggestion elsewhere that it is more likely that the Thameslink services continue and it is the Southern / GN / Southeastern services on the same routes that will be cut back.

Sadly I suspect this is what will happen.

On the GN, from May things return to 100% of the pre-Covid Thameslink service.

By contrast, the 717 inners will still be considerably down on 2019. Most of the peak Peterboroughs missing bar 3 per peak (all 3 will be 8-car whereas many of the pre-Covid services were 12), all the peak Baldock services missing (6x 8-car services per peak), and the various late evening additional Baldock and Peterborough extras.

So back to a 1990s service, just with hard cramped seats and trains whose interior smells like vomit. And we wonder why passengers are hesitating to come back…

 

[HST43257]

Not sure about changes in covid demand

I wondered about a few changes to the service to standardise services a bit and simplify frequencies (especially on catford section where it’s 20/10 or something)

Also replacing Maidstone with a linkup with the London Bridge to Epsom service
Tempted to replace Rainham but not sure I can give a good reason why

all 2tph

Bedford to Brighton
Bedford to Gatwick/Three Bridges
Luton to Orpington
Luton to Sevenoaks
St Albans to Sutton via Mitcham
St Albans to Sutton via Wimbledon
Peterborough to Horsham via Redhill
Cambridge semifast to Brighton
Cambridge slow to Rainham
Welwyn to Epsom via London Bridge

Then 4tph of new destinations and/or peak services

So that means

4tph Bedford all stops to St Albans then fast
4tph Luton semi fast
4tph St Albans all stations
4tph Stevenage-Finsbury Park-Core
4tph Slow lines north of Finsbury

4tph all stations to Bickley
4tph all stations to Streatham
4tph fast to E Croydon then semifast via Redhill
4tph Brighton via Quarry Lines
4tph other

Much of that at even frequencies, no need for uneven spacing and services from everywhere to everywhere (exaggeration obviously)

 

[bramling]

Thameslink aren't being cut back at all apart from the Bedford - Littlehampton peak services and a reduction in the amount of Bedford - East Grinstead services.

If anything there will be an increase in Thameslink services come May 22 with the introduction of Welwyn - Sevenoaks and the second Kings Cross - Royston train returning to Cambridge.


Yes I can. Southern will bear the brunt of GTR's cuts.

Cambridge - Maidstone East will never happen.

I have wondered if Cambridge-King’s Cross will end up being linked to something else, though of course it would require changes to match up the paths either side of the river. Cambridge-Orpington could certainly be viable, though a solution might have to be found for how the missing peak 2tph to Luton would be covered.

That said, Cambridge-Maidstone was always going to be a performance liability, as the Cambridge stopping service has significant potential to cause a lot of reactionary delays if it doesn’t present on time - it’s no coincidence that the May 18 timetable provided long turnarounds at both ends of this service, as indeed was done for the Kings Lynn/Ely fast services.

The other issue with Cambridge-Maidstone as originally envisaged, and I’ve said this before, is where the extra 700/0 would have come from. Certainly up until Covid the 700/0 fleet was already quite heavily committed. No way were there enough to add in what would have been several Maidstone diagrams. One presumes Rainham has used up more 700/0 than the original plans envisaged, and perhaps also the numbers of 700/0 to Brighton and Gatwick, the 700/1 fleet was also quite stretched pre-Covid.

 

[NorthKent1989]

With Thameslink cutting Rainham services down to 1tph after it had Percy been cut entirely temporarily I can see this service being cut in the future.

 

[Mikey C]

The Rainham services aren't "new" ones past London Bridge though, they're just replacing previous Southeastern ones. Losing them would leave Greenwich with just 2 trains an hour into London

 

[cle]

The Rainham services aren't "new" ones past London Bridge though, they're just replacing previous Southeastern ones. Losing them would leave Greenwich with just 2 trains an hour into London

They should all be services into Cannon St really though.

The issue is where to send the current Rainham frequencies - especially if 12 cars.

 

[Galvanize]

The only useful things that would have come about had the Cambridge-Maidstone East (plus peak hour journeys to Ashford!) come to fruition, Knebworth and Welwyn North would have direct trains into the Core…but perhaps more importantly, Stations along the Maidstone line plus Swanley would have a direct link to London Bridge.

 

[London Trains]

On the BML and ECML ive kept an equal balance of services to the mainline stations (Victoria/Kings Cross) and to Thameslink as this means if their is a major problem one side of the core, the other side will still have a decent service.

I've removed Rainham as it should simply stay as a service to Cannon Street, and switched the Gatwick terminator and the Victoria to Reigate.

I'd have:

2tph Bedford to Brighton
2tph Bedford to Horsham
2tph Cambridge to Brighton
2tph Peterborough to Reigate
2tph Luton to Sevenoaks
2tph Luton to Orpington
2tph St Albans to Sutton via Mitcham
2tph St Albans to Sutton via Wimbledon

Southern services:
4tph Victoria to Brighton (Gatwick Express permanently removed)
2tph Victoria to Horsham via Redhill

Great Northern services:
2tph Kings Cross to Cambridge slow
2tph Kings Cross to Peterborough slow (if capacity allows)

I do believe at some point Maidstone East should have a service to London Bridge, but this should come in the form of a Southeastern service to Charing Cross or Cannon Street.

 

[JonathanH]

2tph Peterborough to Reigate

Not without considerable expenditure at Reigate.

It is quite clear that if Reigate ever happens the Bedford service and not the Peterborough service should be transferred.

2tph Victoria to Horsham via Redhill

No way 6tph is going to run to Horsham.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I've removed Rainham as it should simply stay as a service to Cannon Street,

The Rainham Service is a mix between the old Cannon Street to Dartford service and the Charing Cross to Gillingham service, most likely if ever they remove Thameslink from Rainham, they’ll extend the Charing Cross service to Gillingham/Rainham and slot in a Cannon Street to Dartford train in its place.

Or if possible, to placate the Greenwich line crowd, would it be possible for SE to run a Blackfriars to Dartford/Gravesend service?

 

[JonathanH]

Or if possible, to placate the Greenwich line crowd, would it be possible for SE to run a Blackfriars to Dartford/Gravesend service?

Not possible via London Bridge as the Blackfriars bays don't have a suitable route. Going via Nunhead might be a little slow and doesn't serve Greenwich.

 

[Mikey C]

They should all be services into Cannon St really though.

The issue is where to send the current Rainham frequencies - especially if 12 cars.

I always found it baffling that the Greenwich line went from 6 trains an hour - a proper every 10 minutes metro service to Cannon Street - to 4 uneven trains an hour, 2 SE and 2 TL. BEFORE Covid.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I always found it baffling that the Greenwich line went from 6 trains an hour - a proper every 10 minutes metro service to Cannon Street - to 4 uneven trains an hour, 2 SE and 2 TL. BEFORE Covid.

Before covid the Greenwich line still had 6tph, 4tph to Cannon Street and 2tph to Luton, it’s only since covid the frequency on that line has been sketchy, it’s currently 3tph I think.

 

[Mikey C]

Before covid the Greenwich line still had 6tph, 4tph to Cannon Street and 2tph to Luton, it’s only since covid the frequency on that line has been sketchy, it’s currently 3tph I think.

Off peak, certainly on Saturdays and in the evening, it definitely wasn't 6tph any more, even before Covid. The gaps this caused, even from Charlton (which also has the service via Lewisham) were obvious

 

[Minstral25]

Not without considerable expenditure at Reigate.

It is quite clear that if Reigate ever happens the Bedford service and not the Peterborough service should be transferred.

Correct on service - although recent news has the cost of Reigate reduced from over £50m to under £15m. Apparently Network Rail have done some cost engineering on the project - the gold taps have been removed from the bathrooms???? I understand this has meant project is being discussed with DfT again, so it could happen but...............

 

[cle]

T

I always found it baffling that the Greenwich line went from 6 trains an hour - a proper every 10 minutes metro service to Cannon Street - to 4 uneven trains an hour, 2 SE and 2 TL. BEFORE Covid.

Totally absurd. It should be 6tph, or even more, to make more of a metro service. If it had a tube frequency, it would have tube usage. Tons of developments at the Deptford end but also much further east, plenty of suppressed visitor demand (so many would flock to Greenwich if perceived as easy to get to).

Even an extra TUAG couple to make 8tph (turn some at Plumstead again, Abbey Wood and east will be well served soon enough and won't need the even intervals as much!) - A shame there isn't a fifth platform at Abbey Wood for this, to make more of a hub - and the works there are so un-future-proof re extensions too.

And re-allocate other things from Cannon St if needed to Charing Cross (Orpington?) - push the single terminal, higher frequency approach on these routes. And LB for easy swaps, it's what it was rebuilt for!

 

[ScotGG]

With Thameslink cutting Rainham services down to 1tph after it had Percy been cut entirely temporarily I can see this service being cut in the future.

It's stitched up passengers who now have long gaps in service as Southeastern are running about a third of the trains per covid down the line off peak.

There's reductions, and there's cutting so deep it makes using it a gamble and pushing people away. Greenwich is hardly a commuter only area given its tourist and leisure sites.

 

[Mikey C]

If you going to cut services on a long term basis, then the timetable needs to be completely rewritten, rather than just removing one train.

For example if you had 4 trains an hour at 00, 15, 30 and 45 past the hour, just removing one service would leave a 30 minute gap between 2 of the trains and 15 minute gaps elsewhere which is daft.

 

[NorthKent1989]

It's stitched up passengers who now have long gaps in service as Southeastern are running about a third of the trains per covid down the line off peak.

There's reductions, and there's cutting so deep it makes using it a gamble and pushing people away. Greenwich is hardly a commuter only area given its tourist and leisure sites.

It’s okay on the Charlton to Dartford end of the line as they still have 2tph Charing Cross via Blackheath trains, but the Greenwich line itself has been well and truly stitched up as you say.

 

[SE%Traveller]

My thoughts based on original time table (changes in Bold, Peaks in italics):

TL1. 2 TPH Bedford – Brighton
TL2. 2 TPH Bedford – Gatwick
TL3. Peak only: 2 TPH Bedford - East Grinstead
TL4. Peak only: 2 TPH Bedford - Littlehampton
TL5. 2 TPH Peterborough – Horsham
TL6. 2 TPH Cambridge – Brighton
TL7. 2 TPH Cambridge (Slow) – Maidstone East (Fast via Chislehurst Junction & Hither Green Fast Via Catford Bromley South)
TL8. 2 TPH Kentish Town – Sevenoaks (Peak Only: Welwyn - Sevenoaks)
TL9. Peak only: 2 TPH Luton - Beckenham Junction
TL10. All Day: 2 TPH Luton - Rainham (slow via Catford & Sole Street)
TL11. 2 TPH St Albans - Sutton via Wimbledon
TL12. 2 TPH St Albans - Sutton via Mitcham Junction

Notes:

a. TL10 absorbs the old TL8 All Day south of Blackfriars via Catford (Save only Petts Wood & Orpington) & SE Stopping Gillingham Victoria Service between Rochester and Bromley South)
b. TL8 absorbs the current (pre covid) Peak only SE Beckenham Junction to Blackfriars Service
c. TL7 absorbs the old TL8 Off Peak North of Blackfriars (to Kentish Town)
d. SE to Extend Bromley South Stoppers to fill Orpington Gap
e. SE to Replace 2 tph Gillingham to Victoria with 2tph to London Bridge via Strood (then Cannon St Charring Cross)
f. SE to Replace 2 TPH London to Dartford via Greenwich (if not absorbed in e.)
g. SE to Replace 2 TPH Strood to Dartford

Advantages:

1. Frees up 700 Stock (Absorbs Existing Orpington Service South of Blackfriars) & Shorter Journey length by Sole Street at the cost of providing Blackfriars to Beckenham Junction (peak only) Blackfriars to Kentish Town (off peak only)
2. Drops need for extra calls on SE Fast Dover/ Ramsgate on the Chatham Mainline
3. Eliminates the flat moves East of London Bridge;
4. Reduces Off Peak flat moves via Elephant (but adds one off peak)
5. More robust service with more interchangeable route knowledge (all will at least know Blackfriars to Bromley South via HNH and Catford)
6. Elimantes Turn backs at Bromley South
7. Mitigates impact on failures South on the Service North. With Alternatives between Bromley South and Elephant, Bromley South and Sevenoaks etc the impact of trains and crew being out of place tends to be limited to those stuck on the branch at the immediate time with the following sent down diversionary routes.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

My thoughts based on original time table (changes in Bold, Peaks in italics):

TL1. 2 TPH Bedford – Brighton
TL2. 2 TPH Bedford – Gatwick
TL3. Peak only: 2 TPH Bedford - East Grinstead
TL4. Peak only: 2 TPH Bedford - Littlehampton
TL5. 2 TPH Peterborough – Horsham
TL6. 2 TPH Cambridge – Brighton
TL7. 2 TPH Cambridge (Slow) – Maidstone East (Fast via Catford)
TL8. 2 TPH Kentish Town – Sevenoaks (Peak Only: Welwyn - Sevenoaks)
TL9. Peak only: 2 TPH Luton - Beckenham Junction
TL10. All Day: 2 TPH Luton - Rainham (slow via Catford & Sole Street)
TL11. 2 TPH St Albans - Sutton via Wimbledon
TL12. 2 TPH St Albans - Sutton via Mitcham Junction

Notes:

a. TL10 absorbs the old TL8 All Day south of Blackfriars via Catford (Save only Petts Wood & Orpington) & SE Stopping Gillingham Victoria Service between Rochester and Bromley South)
b. TL8 absorbs the current (pre covid) Peak only SE Beckenham Junction to Blackfriars Service
c. TL7 absorbs the old TL8 Off Peak North of Blackfriars (to Kentish Town)
d. SE to Extend Bromley South Stoppers to fill Orpington Gap
e. SE to Replace 2 tph Gillingham to Victoria with 2tph to London Bridge via Strood (then Cannon St Charring Cross)
f. SE to Replace 2 TPH London to Dartford via Greenwich (if not absorbed in e.)
g. SE to Replace 2 TPH Strood to Dartford

Advantages:

1. Frees up 700 Stock (Absorbs Existing Orpington Service South of Blackfriars) & Shorter Jfirourney length by Sole Street at the cost of providing Blackfriars to Beckenham Junction (peak only) Blackfriars to Kentish Town (off peak only)
2. Drops need for extra calls on SE Fast Dover/ Ramsgate on the Chatham Mainline
3. Eliminates the flat moves East of London Bridge;
4. Reduces Off Peak flat moves via Elephant (but adds one off peak)
5. More robust service with more interchangeable route knowledge (all will at least know Blackfriars to Bromley South via HNH and Catford)
6. Mitigates impact on failures South on the Service North. With Alternatives between Bromley South and Elephant, Bromley South and Sevenoaks etc the impact of trains and crew being out of place tends to be limited to those stuck on the branch at the immediate time with the following sent down diversionary routes.

I'm not sure the Catford Loop has capacity for what you are proposing. The biggest issue with the Catford Loop as well is the Channel Tunnel Freight, which has the number one priority for access right and paths.

Also Thameslink Core has been limited at 22tph anyway.

 

[SE%Traveller]

I'm not sure the Catford Loop has capacity for what you are proposing. The biggest issue with the Catford Loop as well is the Channel Tunnel Freight, which has the number one priority for access right and paths.

Also Thameslink Core has been limited at 22tph anyway.

I think i should have wrote it Fast from Bromley South rather than Fast via Catford, will update. Though I thought I'd read elsewhere on these forums that it was thought the loop could take the 4 Thameslink Slows and 2 proposed Maidstone East to Blackfriars and that's what's currently proposed i understand?

I'm not sure the Catford Loop has capacity for what you are proposing. The biggest issue with the Catford Loop as well is the Channel Tunnel Freight, which has the number one priority for access right and paths.

Also Thameslink Core has been limited at 22tph anyway.

Then Maidstone East Remains a Blackfriars Service. Might be an abundance of 700s!

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I think i should have wrote it Fast from Bromley South rather than Fast via Catford, will update. Though I thought I'd read elsewhere on these forums that it was thought the loop could take the 4 Thameslink Slows and 2 proposed Maidstone East to Blackfriars and that's what's currently proposed i understand?


Then Maidstone East Remains a Blackfriars Service. Might be an abundance of 700s!

Yeah it can, but on here I thought you were putting 8tph via the Loop as there are still the two Southeastern services running.

My bad as I can see you probably would remove those.

 

[SE%Traveller]

Yeah it can, but on here I thought you were putting 8tph via the Loop as there are still the two Southeastern services running.

My bad as I can see you probably would remove those.

i confused myself with which bits replace what! an alternative way of looking at it:

Existing Orpington Trains take over the the Victoria Gillingham Services East of Bromley South (the part West is axed anyone from the East wanting victoria wil change at Bromley as they probably do now)

Thameslink Rainham to London bridge is axed and replaced with Southeastern 2 x Rainham to london bridge.

The Gillinghams were routed Catford because they stopped at Denmark Hil. Unclear if Maidstones do in the new proposals. All but 2 have vanished from Real time trains post May

 

[dodecahedron67]

Though I thought I'd read elsewhere on these forums that it was thought the loop could take the 4 Thameslink Slows and 2 proposed Maidstone East to Blackfriars and that's what's currently proposed i understand?

The Maidstones were to run Swanley - London Bridge non-stop through Chislehurst Junction and Hither Green, not via the Catford Loop or Brom South at all

Currently proposed is for 2tph TL Sevenoaks-Blackfriars and 2tph Maidstone-Blackfriars SE off peak, 4tph TL Luton-Orpington/Welwyn-Sevenoaks peak, with the Maidstone-Blackfriars running via Herne Hill in the peak afaik

 

[SE%Traveller]

The Maidstones were to run Swanley - London Bridge non-stop through Chislehurst Junction and Hither Green, not via the Catford Loop or Brom South at all

Currently proposed is for 2tph TL Sevenoaks-Blackfriars and 2tph Maidstone-Blackfriars SE off peak, 4tph TL Luton-Orpington/Welwyn-Sevenoaks peak, with the Maidstone-Blackfriars running via Herne Hill in the peak afaik

sorry if wasn't clear, the bold was flagging changes i was proposing to the baseline in order to achieve the original plan whilst trying to address 2 known constraints:

Lack of 700s
Resilience/ Pathing via Chiselhursts

 

[Stephen42]

My thoughts based on original time table (changes in Bold, Peaks in italics):

TL1. 2 TPH Bedford – Brighton
TL2. 2 TPH Bedford – Gatwick
TL3. Peak only: 2 TPH Bedford - East Grinstead
TL4. Peak only: 2 TPH Bedford - Littlehampton
TL5. 2 TPH Peterborough – Horsham
TL6. 2 TPH Cambridge – Brighton
TL7. 2 TPH Cambridge (Slow) – Maidstone East (Fast via Chislehurst Junction & Hither Green Fast Via Catford Bromley South)
TL8. 2 TPH Kentish Town – Sevenoaks (Peak Only: Welwyn - Sevenoaks)
TL9. Peak only: 2 TPH Luton - Beckenham Junction
TL10. All Day: 2 TPH Luton - Rainham (slow via Catford & Sole Street)
TL11. 2 TPH St Albans - Sutton via Wimbledon
TL12. 2 TPH St Albans - Sutton via Mitcham Junction

Notes:

a. TL10 absorbs the old TL8 All Day south of Blackfriars via Catford (Save only Petts Wood & Orpington) & SE Stopping Gillingham Victoria Service between Rochester and Bromley South)
b. TL8 absorbs the current (pre covid) Peak only SE Beckenham Junction to Blackfriars Service
c. TL7 absorbs the old TL8 Off Peak North of Blackfriars (to Kentish Town)
d. SE to Extend Bromley South Stoppers to fill Orpington Gap
e. SE to Replace 2 tph Gillingham to Victoria with 2tph to London Bridge via Strood (then Cannon St Charring Cross)
f. SE to Replace 2 TPH London to Dartford via Greenwich (if not absorbed in e.)
g. SE to Replace 2 TPH Strood to Dartford

Advantages:

1. Frees up 700 Stock (Absorbs Existing Orpington Service South of Blackfriars) & Shorter Journey length by Sole Street at the cost of providing Blackfriars to Beckenham Junction (peak only) Blackfriars to Kentish Town (off peak only)
2. Drops need for extra calls on SE Fast Dover/ Ramsgate on the Chatham Mainline
3. Eliminates the flat moves East of London Bridge;
4. Reduces Off Peak flat moves via Elephant (but adds one off peak)
5. More robust service with more interchangeable route knowledge (all will at least know Blackfriars to Bromley South via HNH and Catford)
6. Elimantes Turn backs at Bromley South
7. Mitigates impact on failures South on the Service North. With Alternatives between Bromley South and Elephant, Bromley South and Sevenoaks etc the impact of trains and crew being out of place tends to be limited to those stuck on the branch at the immediate time with the following sent down diversionary routes.

I'm not sure those changes free up many 700s. Luton - Rainham via Catford looks to take the same time as via Greenwich based on the Gillingham - Victoria (to Bromley South) and Sevenoaks - Blackfriars (from Bromley South). Turning back at Beckenham Junction saves 1 unit at most two and Maidstone via Bromley South takes a bit longer though might not need an extra unit. To introduce the originally planned Maidstone would need at least 5 units so expect there still be a shortfall.

How workable it is in general would depend on passenger numbers and what changes Southeastern make in future. An all stops Rainham - Luton via Catford and Sole Street could be overcrowded as with redirection to Blackfriars it's unlikely to be overtaken since the peak Maidstone East services currently go via Catford. Pre-pandemic the Rainham services had some merit, the Cannon Street lines had capacity constrains further in so the flat moves didn't really impact overall capacity. These days there's fewer peak services to Cannon Street so diversions are easier. Also likely to be quite a big timetable change, as Blackfriars Junction services aren't all paired by service group so rearranging via London Bridge to via Elephant isn't trivial.

I'd personally expect services to be more like May 2022 longer term, with the Orpington - Luton only operating at peak/school times, no Thameslink Littlehampton services or extensions to Maidstone with maybe East Grinstead services added back. The May 2022 timetable needs 100ish class 700s in service according to my code. Potentially the Rainham - Luton services could turnback further south at Kentish Town or Cannon Street off peak but unclear how much this would actually save.