Thameslink Services/Timetable from May 20th 2018

[bramling]

I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. It's in a death spiral. They can't get drivers where they need to be, spoken they cut the service and introduce extra stops on the trains that do run.

This results in the trains they do run being late with the knock on effect that drivers aren't even able to be where they need to be to run the emergency timetable.

So they cut some more trains.

This is a self reinforcing feedback loop. At some point the service will completely collapse.

If they wanted to make it better they would abandon any attempts to run through the core from GN and try to revert to the previous service pattern as their emergency timetable, with the 365s back, perhaps at slightly altered times. Then get someone who actually knows what they're doing to try and gradually reintroduce the GN TL core services when they are able to run them without utterly disrupting GN.

Instead they are still trying to run through the core and use 700s and so the death spiral continues.

I think that sums it up. The solution is to go back to what we had before, then look at small incremental Thameslink *additions* over time. Thankfully we've still got many of those extra 365s available in storage.

The decision to revert to the previous service is now pretty much inevitable, it just needs someone to have the balls to take it. The whole ThamesLink/ implementation needs completely re-thinking, and more than likely this is a process which may well take *years*. More than likely many additional drivers will need to be resourced and trained.

For now, the service has all but collapsed anyway.

I can fully understand Northern having issues with a "mismatch" between driver knowledge and requirements due to the electrification issues. GTR simply can't claim that - there was no short-notice unexpected failure to deliver infrastructure.

 

[OwenB]

I think that sums it up. The solution is to go back to what we had before, then look at small incremental Thameslink *additions* over time. Thankfully we've still got many of those extra 365s available in storage.

The decision to revert to the previous service is now pretty much inevitable, it just needs someone to have the balls to take it. The whole ThamesLink/ implementation needs completely re-thinking, and more than likely this is a process which may well take *years*. More than likely many additional drivers will need to be resourced and trained.

For now, the service has all but collapsed anyway.

I can fully understand Northern having issues with a "mismatch" between driver knowledge and requirements due to the electrification issues. GTR simply can't claim that - there was no short-notice unexpected failure to deliver infrastructure.

It does feel like we're waiting for something to happen...

 

[ComUtoR]

I think that sums it up. The solution is to go back to what we had before, then look at small incremental Thameslink *additions* over time. Thankfully we've still got many of those extra 365s available in storage.

How do you revert the timetable back without needing to revert all the Drivers and other crew back to their original depot ? Not forgetting that this change also came with a huge displacement and redeployment across the Driver Depots. How does a Driver at the newly opened Orpington depot then take a service starting from Blackfriars at 04xx in the morning ?

The decision to revert to the previous service is now pretty much inevitable, it just needs someone to have the balls to take it.

It's not just about the GTR services. There is an impact on the other TOCs too. Could you force SE to re-implement their Gillingham services if their Drivers aren't now able to cover the work ?

 

[43074]

The reason it's getting worse is because the whole setup is simply falling apart -- it's simply not possible to continue attempting to run a railway with this level of uncertainty going on 24/7.

Just listening to Horton now, I find it incredible that they say there was an unexpected mismatch with driver route knowledge. How on earth can that have been unexpected? Also, they say the timetable was late being delivered, but surely most of the late changes to the timetable were tweaks to schedules to make them work - the basic service pattern has changed little since the drafts came out. I'm finding the Northern issues more plausible - late finish of electrification - however none of the ThamesLink/ excuses really wash.

Indeed, given the basic outline of the network has been known for a while, and there will have been draft timetables for each variation before that, it would have been possible to at least have a rough idea of what was required in terms of driver numbers even with the new driver depot locations. If there were major changes arising from the late handover of the timetable from NR it raises questions over the competence of the planners responsible at GTR and likewise at NR, as you would not expect major changes to occur from the timetable bid/offer process (tweaks certainly but no more...) especially at the stage at which this was happening.

 

[bramling]

How do you revert the timetable back without needing to revert all the Drivers and other crew back to their original depot ? Not forgetting that this change also came with a huge displacement and redeployment across the Driver Depots. How does a Driver at the newly opened Orpington depot then take a service starting from Blackfriars at 04xx in the morning ?

It's not just about the GTR services. There is an impact on the other TOCs too. Could you force SE to re-implement their Gillingham services if their Drivers aren't now able to cover the work ?

Draw out an emergency timetable as closely based on the previous timetable as possible (especially in terms of the service pattern), then draw up crew diagrams using the resources available, give the notice to drivers, and off we go. Route knowledge shouldn't be an issue, although it does seem to be the case there are GN drivers who still don't sign the 700s, which is incredible. This sort of thing isn't unprecedented - it happened after the Hatfield accident.

I can't comment on the Rainham service, however I don't see why there should need to be a rollback elsewhere -- it's the GN side which has been worst hit. On the southern side we're talking about 2tph Horsham and 1tph Brighton -- the latter could probably be withdrawn altogether, so then the issue is how to provide a London to Horsham stopping service.

I wonder if Horton's "personal decision" to resign might have been based on the penny having dropped that this is such a monumental disaster that there's no easy way of clearing up the mess.

 

[Mauve]

Today's Transport Committee fun begins at 4.45pm. It'll be live at https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/7939155a-a0a9-4e89-8d60-109b0e86ad3d

Thanks for the link, interesting that GTR are still trying to pin the blame on NR's late timetable finalisation resulting in a mismatch between the driver competence requirements and the rosters.

I note that Charles Horton just repeated the statement that the timetable can still deliver exciting journey opportunities too

 

[ComUtoR]

then draw up crew diagrams using the resources available, give the notice to drivers, and off we go.

Timetabling I can't comment on as I don't know how long that would take. To repath an entire timetable and each service it will affect at different TOC's is a huge task.

To resource Drivers you are talking about going through PT&R arrangements. It will take months of renegotiation and then you want to reintroduce it again slowly. How do you redeploy again to resource more routes and more training ?

I can't comment on the Rainham service, however I don't see why there should need to be a rollback elsewhere -- it's the GN side which has been worst hit. On the southern side we're talking about 2tph Horsham and 1tph Brighton -- the latter could probably be withdrawn altogether, so then the issue is how to provide a London to Horsham stopping service.

If you rolled back the Driver changes and rolled back the timetable. All those Rainham service will have no Drivers to run them. It's being covered by 3 depots across 2 TOCs. A lot of the new Drivers didn't even exist and have no route knowledge on the previous routes.

By the time it takes to roll back everything you may as well have just carried on and pushed through all the crap.

 

[sefton]

On the plus side they have put back into the timetable the trains they couldn't run and removed.

On the negative side they have cancelled them all...

 

[Failed Unit]

The reason it's getting worse is because the whole setup is simply falling apart -- it's simply not possible to continue attempting to run a railway with this level of uncertainty going on 24/7.

Just listening to Horton now, I find it incredible that they say there was an unexpected mismatch with driver route knowledge. How on earth can that have been unexpected? Also, they say the timetable was late being delivered, but surely most of the late changes to the timetable were tweaks to schedules to make them work - the basic service pattern has changed little since the drafts came out. I'm finding the Northern issues more plausible - late finish of electrification - however none of the ThamesLink/ excuses really wash.

I hope they are challenging him. As you say later the timetable hasn’t changed much since the “consultation”* so they should never have had a massive mismatch.

*the consultation was a box ticking exercise rather than a serious chance to get opinions and tweak it based on said opinions.

 

[Domh245]

On the topic of how long it takes to roll out the timetable changes and everything else, I'm watching the Transport Select Committee's current session. Charles Horton has said that going forward they need to enshrine the 12 week period before a timetable change (in terms of changes to specification), whilst David Brown (Northern MD) has said that they asked to postpone the May changes back in early January (but were turned down by other industry partners) - so it isn't a quick process at all.

Jumping back through it, they talk about usually doing 3 or 4 iterations of driver rosters, usualy over those 12 weeks, but they were only able to do these on Thursday before the change.

 

[Failed Unit]

On the topic of how long it takes to roll out the timetable changes and everything else, I'm watching the Transport Select Committee's current session. Charles Horton has said that going forward they need to enshrine the 12 week period before a timetable change (in terms of changes to specification), whilst David Brown (Northern MD) has said that they asked to postpone the May changes back in early January (but were turned down by other industry partners) - so it isn't a quick process at all.

Jumping back through it, they talk about usually doing 3 or 4 iterations of driver rosters, usualy over those 12 weeks, but they were only able to do these on Thursday before the change.

Let’s say you can believe Horton (we know from his performance on May 22nd he is a liar - when he said with total contempt to his customers this is teething problems) we should have full service on first week in August as that is 12 weeks after network rail allegedly finalised the timetable.

I can’t see it. GTR don’t seem to have any date in mind for the full implementation.

Going back to May 22nd. Why did he lie I wonder? Surely telling the truth then wouldn’t have made things any worse but he may have came out with some personal credibility.

 

[gingerheid]

I'm really disappointed by what we're seeing

I'd love to know what caused this as it seems to me that there is no other explanation than that GTR engaged in substantial dishonesty, but that is surely not the case?

But the explanations given aren't sufficient. If what he is saying was what someone who was telling the truth would be saying then there wouldn't be a massive gap between the service level in the old timetable and what is currently being operated?

For example, they used to operate one train an hour to Foxton. They knew they were planning to operate twice as many of those trains. Surely confusion as to exactly how and when they were going to do this would, at worst, give Foxton more than one train an hour?

 

[bramling]

Let’s say you can believe Horton (we know from his performance on May 22nd he is a liar - when he said with total contempt to his customers this is teething problems) we should have full service on first week in August as that is 12 weeks after network rail allegedly finalised the timetable.

I can’t see it. GTR don’t seem to have any date in mind for the full implementation.

Going back to May 22nd. Why did he lie I wonder? Surely telling the truth then wouldn’t have made things any worse but he may have came out with some personal credibility.

Just spent a few minutes reading various threads on here going back over the last 3 or 4 years, I don't know whether to laugh or cry reading some of the posts, especially from one particular poster no longer here, now the whole dream has come crashing down with a big bang.

If observers on here have been able to accurately and confidently predict shambles, why couldn't GTR/DFT?

 

[gingerheid]

I was one of the naysayers, but I didn't think it could be this bad.

 

[bramling]

I was one of the naysayers, but I didn't think it could be this bad.

Same. It was obvious it would be a shambles, but they've really pulled out all the stops to deliver quite the level of shambles which they have. The same arrogant "it will work" attitude displayed by a few on here evidently extended to those more closely associated with the project, and they've been well and truly found out to be the incompetents which they clearly are.

Too much change, and too much change all in one go. And it's worth remembering that this is the descoped "phased" version - just think what would have happened had they tried to do what they were originally planning.

 

[SVG2076]

As a regular customer between Stevenage and Cambridge, I am very happy to see the additional stops implemented on Cambridge Fast at Stevenage, providing a 27 minutes journey opportunity which is 15 minutes faster than the slows and 10 minutes faster than the semi-fasts. Now we have 5 TPH (actually 3-4 as the Brighton trains are nearly non-existent and normally 1 tph of slows will be cancelled) between Cambridge and Stevenage which is impressive even for only 3 services as the fasts save me substantial amount of time. The fasts also have table seats and more comfortable seats than the ironing boards. For going to London, I can always rely on GA or GR. I think this pair of destination is nearly the only pair that benefits from timetable failure.

 

[philjo]

I gather there have been a few Kings Lynn trains running as 4 coaches today including the 17:42 4 coaches throughout from Kings Cross so left passengers on the platform more than 10 minutes before it was due to leave. The 18:12 was then cancelled ....

 

[Teflon Lettuce]

I note that Charles Horton just repeated the statement that the timetable can still deliver exciting journey opportunities too

I thought the problem with the timetable is that it's delivering exciting journey opportunities...

 

[bramling]

I thought the problem with the timetable is that it's delivering exciting journey opportunities...

Yeah, like Arlesey to London via Peterborough!

I notice the FailPlan2020 posters at my station have disappeared since I was last there, says it all really.

 

[MikeWM]

I gather there have been a few Kings Lynn trains running as 4 coaches today including the 17:42 4 coaches throughout from Kings Cross so left passengers on the platform more than 10 minutes before it was due to leave. The 18:12 was then cancelled ....

...and the 1842 was then apparently also only 4 coaches. And then terminated at Cambridge, once again leaving the last GA KLN train to cover for GN’s complete inability to do basic operation of a railway.

Incredibly, it all appears to be getting even worse. What’s the excuse/lie for all these shortforms, on top of all the other issues?

 

[Hadders]

I’m in the 2106 KGX-PBO service. 4-car 365. What the hell are GTR playing at.

 

[MikeWM]

...apparently the 1912 from KGX was also only 4 carriages (and about 30 minutes late). Have the couplings given up today too??? What on earth is going on?

 

[bramling]

...apparently the 1912 from KGX was also only 4 carriages (and about 30 minutes late). Have the couplings given up today too??? What on earth is going on?

2112 also 1x387, and left KX with standing passengers. I’m on 1R66 2154 KX to Letchworth which is 2x365 as booked, but of course we wait to see if a driver turns up. I’m *so* glad of the 365 services - we wouldn’t be in anything like the level of mess if they had kept an hourly all-day GN service KX to Cambridge and Peterborough, as suggested on here so many times, a basic point which some people simply fail to grasp.

 

[Teflon Lettuce]

out of interest.... has GTR even managed to work out where the gaps in route knowledge/ traction knowledge actually are yet?

 

[Silver Cobra]

I’m *so* glad of the 365 services - we wouldn’t be in anything like the level of mess if they had kept an hourly all-day GN service KX to Cambridge and Peterborough, as suggested on here so many times, a basic point which some people simply fail to grasp.

Saturdays are largely this, but there's still a fair amount of cancellations, particularly on the Cambridge side. The Peterborough services are predominantly 365s with some 387s and the odd 700, but the Cambridge services are predominantly 8-car 700s, indicating that traction knowledge is the limiting factor here. I can see the logic of using the 700s on the Cambridge stopper services, to allow 8-car services to use SDO at Meldreth/Shepreth/Foxton, but with the amount of cancellations that are happening on Saturdays, it may make more sense to just run some 4-car services here.

 

[bramling]

Saturdays are largely this, but there's still a fair amount of cancellations, particularly on the Cambridge side. The Peterborough services are predominantly 365s with some 387s and the odd 700, but the Cambridge services are predominantly 8-car 700s. I can see the logic of using the 700s on the Cambridge stopper services, to allow 8-car services to use SDO at Meldreth/Shepreth/Foxton, but with the amount of cancellations that are happening on Saturdays, it may make more sense to just run some 4-car services here.

As regards the 365s, one has to remember that the fleet now only stables at Peterborough and Letchworth (plus two spares at Hornsey), which imposes a limitation on where they can be immediately deployed. This isn’t too much of a problem in practice as you rightly mention the SDO issue on the Cambridge branch - it would have given a lot more flexibility if the three stations had been properly extended. No reason of course why we can’t get 1x365 on the Cambridge stopping service as a last resort, or 2x365 if they omit the three stations.

2x387 also stable at Letchworth, in theory at least, ECS from and to Cambridge.

 

[Ianno87]

2112 also 1x387, and left KX with standing passengers. I’m on 1R66 2154 KX to Letchworth which is 2x365 as booked, but of course we wait to see if a driver turns up. I’m *so* glad of the 365 services - we wouldn’t be in anything like the level of mess if they had kept an hourly all-day GN service KX to Cambridge and Peterborough, as suggested on here so many times, a basic point which some people simply fail to grasp.

Out of interest, what evidence do you or the other poster(s) have to suggest that would actually have avoided the problem? Or is it pure speculation? All the GN driver rosters would still have had to change radically regardless...

 

[bramling]

Out of interest, what evidence do you or the other poster(s) have to suggest that would actually have avoided the problem? Or is it pure speculation? All the GN driver rosters would still have had to change radically regardless...

For a start, the 365 services we do have have generally been running reasonably well. And not having to worry about route and traction knowledge, plus issues south of the river, surely reliability would have been better. Especially if they’d kept the legacy drivers as a “business as usual” link, as I have suggested a few times.

 

[The Box Photter]

I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. It's in a death spiral. They can't get drivers where they need to be, spoken they cut the service and introduce extra stops on the trains that do run.

This results in the trains they do run being late with the knock on effect that drivers aren't even able to be where they need to be to run the emergency timetable.

So they cut some more trains.

This is a self reinforcing feedback loop. At some point the service will completely collapse.

If they wanted to make it better they would abandon any attempts to run through the core from GN and try to revert to the previous service pattern as their emergency timetable, with the 365s back, perhaps at slightly altered times. Then get someone who actually knows what they're doing to try and gradually reintroduce the GN TL core services when they are able to run them without utterly disrupting GN.

Instead they are still trying to run through the core and use 700s and so the death spiral continues.

Agree 100%

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Agree 100%

I do like the term "Death Spiral" .....