"The North Of England Is Getting A Rough Deal" discussion

[ac6000cw]

I doubt it - York is a tall trainshed designed to deal with smoke from steam engines. New Street has a very low roof (with ventilation equipment) and is classified as a sub-surface station.

Where is Temple Mills station (I thought there was only a yard there ?)

 

[HH]

There is the current matter that concerns private motor vehicles with diesel engines which appears to have raised its head over the matter of emissions. Do any rail-based diesel rolling stock fall into the same category of concern?

Existing stock has "grandfather rights". Any new rolling stock, and any existing rolling stock that has engine replacement, will need to meet the new guidelines. I'm no expert on this, but I understand that the new regulations add cost and make diesel less efficient.

As I often say to people, just because there wasn't a business case 5 years ago, doesn't mean there isn't one now.

 

[AM9]

Existing stock has "grandfather rights". Any new rolling stock, and any existing rolling stock that has engine replacement, will need to meet the new guidelines. I'm no expert on this, but I understand that the new regulations add cost and make diesel less efficient.

As I often say to people, just because there wasn't a business case 5 years ago, doesn't mean there isn't one now.

Also, just because everybody ignored the health issues, it doesn't mean that they will be tolerated now or in the future, - Grandfather Rights or not!

 

[nicobobinus]

I doubt it - York is a tall trainshed designed to deal with smoke from steam engines. New Street has a very low roof (with ventilation equipment) and is classified as a sub-surface station.

Where is Temple Mills station (I thought there was only a yard there ?)

Temple Meads would be my guess.

 

[AM9]

I doubt it - York is a tall trainshed designed to deal with smoke from steam engines. New Street has a very low roof (with ventilation equipment) and is classified as a sub-surface station.

Smoke from steam is different to diesel. For a start, diesel particulates are cooler than steam smoke so it will not automatically rise to the roof and they tend to hang around in the area. That's why busy roads have air quality way above the legal limits and it's endured by car occupants as well. Some modern cars have parfticulate filters to remove some of them.
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station[/I] (I thought there was only a yard there ?)

Oops, I meant Temple Meads.

 

[muddythefish]

Sorry if this is old news but did anyone see the articles in the Bradford Evening Telegraph and Northern Echo yesterday ?

Apparently the Dft has done a U-turn and Pacers are to be "modernised" and not replaced from 2020.

 

[sprinterguy]

Sorry if this is old news but did anyone see the articles in the Bradford Evening Telegraph and Northern Echo yesterday ?

Apparently the Dft has done a U-turn and Pacers are to be "modernised" and not replaced from 2020.

I'm not sure how large a pinch of salt we need to take this story with at this stage, but the article can be found here:

http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/ne...39_cattle_truck__39__Pacer_trains/?ref=var_0b
Government U-turn on pledge to scrap hated 'cattle truck' Pacer trains

MINISTERS have dumped a flagship pledge to scrap the North’s hated ‘Pacer’ trains, to the fury of MPs and passengers.

The decrepit 30-year-old vehicles – condemned as “cattle trucks” – were due to be replaced as part of a new contract to be introduced on local lines in 2016.

But the department for transport (DfT) has admitted to The Northern Echo that Pacers may be “modernised” instead, to keep them running for at least another decade.

Industry insiders say the U-turn is being considered because new trains may not all be ready for 2020, when the 90 remaining Pacers will fall foul of disability discrimination laws.

Furthermore, it is likely diesel trains will be “cascaded” down to Northern Rail routes after electrification schemes on other lines – schemes with uncertain completion dates.

The potential move is embarrassing for the Government, after it promised – in a Commons debate earlier this year – that Pacers would go.

Stephen Hammond, since replaced as rail minister, told MPs: “We expect to ask bidders for the Northern franchise to put forward proposals for the removal of Pacers from the area.”

The revelation comes after news that most rail fares across the country will rise by 3.5 per cent in January, with some soaring as much as 5.5 per cent - largely to fund better, more comfortable trains.

..Labour MPs Iain Wright (Hartlepool) and Andy McDonald (Middlesbrough) have led protests that Pacers are noisy, cold, uncomfortable, dirty and prone to break down, while lacking modern facilities.

Mr Wright said: “The Government is letting down the region again. If you travel on a train in the South-East, you get adequate seating, modern facilities and digital displays to show where you’re going.

“Here in the North-East, on the Pacer trains, it’s like being in another country."

Mr McDonald said: “Pacers are way beyond their shelf life and are not fit for purpose. No amount of refurbishment can change that.

"These outdated cattle trucks should be scrapped and replaced with rolling stock fit for the 21st century.”

Brought in as a stop-gap in the mid-1980s Pacers consist of a bus body mounted on a freight wagon chassis.

Northern Rail accepts they need replacing, but warned a new train will cost about six times as much in leasing charges.

The Campaign for Better Transport said it was “ludicrous” to contemplate re-fitting the Pacers – especially when billions are being spent on new trains for the Thameslink and CrossRail routes, in London.

Andrew Allen, its policy analyst, said: “We want to see a firm timetable to see these old trains taken out of service before 2019 and the consultation doesn’t commit to that.”

In a statement, a DfT spokesman said: “We recognise that they fall short of many passengers’ expectations.”

However, he added: “We will specifically ask bidders for the franchise how they will replace, or modernise, these trains to give passengers a better experience.”

A three-strong shortlist was announced last week for the new Northern Rail franchise. The winner will be revealed late next year and the contract awarded in February 2016.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Sorry if this is old news but did anyone see the articles in the Bradford Evening Telegraph and Northern Echo yesterday ?
Apparently the Dft has done a U-turn and Pacers are to be "modernised" and not replaced from 2020.

It will be at least 12 months before the DfT agrees the rolling stock plan for Northern, after the franchise bids which haven't started yet.
The ROSCOs will undoubtedly be pushing Pacer upgrade plans, and maybe some will get upgraded before they are replaced.
It's only a week since DfT said this while announcing the short list:

The potential operators will need to demonstrate how they will....
upgrade rolling stock, including proposals to replace Pacer trains on the Northern franchise.

 

[HH]

From what I heard, one of the ROSCOs involved was not interested in refurbishing the Pacers; it wants to scrap them.

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I'm not sure how large a pinch of salt we need to take this story with at this stage, but the article can be found here:

I think that this old news re-hashed and given a spin to create a headline. DfT have always said that Pacer replacement was to be an option. No decision has been made yet.

 

[HSTEd]

So it can make more money when it is handed a giant contract for replacement vehicles.

If the replacement contracts are not coming then it will certainly be interested in modernisation.

 

[HH]

So it can make more money when it is handed a giant contract for replacement vehicles.

If the replacement contracts are not coming then it will certainly be interested in modernisation.

You might think that, but I couldn't possibly comment.

 

[WatcherZero]

Seen the U-turn pacer story pop up in a couple of newspapers over the weekend, origin is apparently the RMT press release criticising Northern/TPE consultation las week so not really any substance.

 

[Class377/5]

Northern Rail accepts they need replacing, but warned a new train will cost about six times as much in leasing charges.

I wonder where the claim of new trains costing up to six times as much as the pacers comes from?

 

[pemma]

I wonder where the claim of new trains costing up to six times as much as the pacers comes from?

I very much doubt consideration has been given to the Pacers being 65% of the length of modern DMUs has been taken into account if they come up with figures like that.
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From what I heard, one of the ROSCOs involved was not interested in refurbishing the Pacers; it wants to scrap them.

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I think that this old news re-hashed and given a spin to create a headline. DfT have always said that Pacer replacement was to be an option. No decision has been made yet.

Angel who owns the 142s don't think they can last beyond 2019 anyway.

Porterbrook have unveiled plans for making the 143s accessible with 80 seats in 2+2 formation and say the 144s could go down the same route if an operator agrees to use them for around 10 more years. The refurbishment would mean the Pacers would only really be suitable for taking over from 153s if they are reformed in to 155s. With Porterbrook also owning the 153s, maybe they do see 143s and 144s as a low cost replacement for 153s? They were rumoured to be in talks with ATW 'regarding refurbished 143s.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What exactly is the current sub-frame corrosion position of the Class 142 Pacer fleet ?

 

[HH]

I wonder where the claim of new trains costing up to six times as much as the pacers comes from?

I don't know, but it's not far from the truth. Pacers are extremely cheap and I think the ScotRail Class 380s are around six times the capital lease cost.

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What exactly is the current sub-frame corrosion position of the Class 142 Pacer fleet ?

I'm told by Rolling Stock experts that it's very bad indeed. Many people think that a large number of 142s would simply not stand up to a full PRM-TSI refurbishment.

 

[Class377/5]

I don't know, but it's not far from the truth. Pacers are extremely cheap and I think the ScotRail Class 380s are around six times the capital lease cost.

Ok thanks.

On a slightly different point, 319362 should be at Allerton on Monday and another 319 may be coming up as well with it.

 

[WatcherZero]

Im not sure where the six times figure comes from, in 2006 Informed Sources column when Pacer replacement was being advocated by Serco/Abellio. Pacer annual leasing costs were £17k per carriage while annual maintenence costs were £36k. New build diesel leasing costs for a 20 or 23m carriage were £55k while it was suggested that if comparable to a Class 158 in form and functionality they would have annual maintenence costs of £56k. so thats only a multiple of 4 and thats with the replacements being diesel rather than electric which would be cheaper. I doubt very much Pacers have halved their leasing costs in the intervening period.

To put those 2006 leasing costs into bum costs

Pacer leasing cost 17k / 101 (2x2) seats in two vehicles, £336 per seat
New Build diesels in same layout as 158 £55k, 224 seats in three vehicles, £736 per seat

So in seating terms compared to a analog new build 158 the leasing costs are 2.2 times as much as for a pacer. Meanwhile maintenence costs would be £712 per seat for a Pacer vs £750 per seat on a new build 158 analog.

Feel free to correct my maths, was only a quick calc.

 

[HH]

Im not sure where the six times figure comes from, in 2006 Informed Sources column when Pacer replacement was being advocated by Serco/Abellio. Pacer annual leasing costs were £17k per carriage while annual maintenence costs were £36k. New build diesel leasing costs for a 20 or 23m carriage were £55k while it was suggested that if comparable to a Class 158 in form and functionality they would have annual maintenence costs of £56k. so thats only a multiple of 4 and thats with the replacements being diesel rather than electric which would be cheaper. I doubt very much Pacers have halved their leasing costs in the intervening period.

Those figures are from 2006, when the last diesels (class 185) were built. Life has moved on. Based on the increase in EMUs over the same period they would be over double now (and as I already noted elsewhere new diesels will have to meet the latest standards which will raise prices even further). There's where your 6 times figure comes from.

P.S. The number of seats depends on the configuration!

 

[ac6000cw]

I think the last DMUs built were the LM/LU/Chiltern 172s (in 2010/2011)?

 

[WatcherZero]

And the bi-mode pre-series currently under construction with serial production to come.

P.S. The number of seats depends on the configuration!

Yeah thats why I chose seating configurations in service with Northern. I also dont believe EMU's have significantly increased in price since 2006, they have risen much slower than inflation. According to the Rail Industry Long Term strategy EMU's cost 45% less to maintain, 32% less to lease for a total of 37% savings from electrification, they also cost 39% less to operate (energy cost, track maintence, electrification equipment upkeep). Natural replacement of diesel trains with electric saves £346m or 14% of total rolling stock leasing costs by 2042 rising to £479m or 20% under the high growth scenario. The rolling stock plan calls for a simple cascade of electric replacing mid life diesels to replace older diesels which would save the industry 30%. This is based on the assumption of proportion of fleet that is electric to rise from 69% today to 80% by 2019 with committed schemes and then rising to 92/95% during the following 15 years meanwhile track mileage would rise from 41% to 51% and then another 8% in each following period.

They forecast that by the end of this control period the number of 75mph diesel vehicles required will reduce from 1055 to 779 and then 516 in the following control period and there is no requirement for new diesel multiple units to be built. Thats reduction is enough to phase out nearly all Pacers with the number remaining after 2019 able to be counted ten fingers.

 

[HH]

And the bi-mode pre-series currently under construction with serial production to come.

Has this been announced? As of a few weeks ago it was still in trial with no definite production.

Yeah thats why I chose seating configurations in service with Northern.

Which is disingenuous. Current seating configurations are historic and don't indicate what will happen in future.

 

[WatcherZero]

Exactly, choosing the lowest possible density seating configurations currently in service with Northern for cost comparison leaves much room for higher density seating to produce savings if required to fudge the figures. I used a seating density of 101, 20% less dense than current high density configuration of 120 seats.

 

[HH]

I also dont believe EMU's have significantly increased in price since 2006, they have risen much slower than inflation.

You can believe what you like. Class 380s cost over £10,000 per calendar month per vehicle. Class 170s cost over £100k p.a. for the capital lease, and there are other lease charges. Your figures are out of date and your assumptions wrong.

The more modern the fleet, the more features it has, and the features cost money.

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Exactly, choosing the lowest possible density seating configurations currently in service with Northern for cost comparison leaves much room for higher density seating to produce savings if required to fudge the figures.

Actually seating densities are generally being lowered...

 

[WatcherZero]

Has this been announced? As of a few weeks ago it was still in trial with no definite production.

Yeah started months ago, as far as I know the first component to be shipped to Japan from the UK for fitting on IEP was £10m worth of Dellner Gangways three months ago, they started production last December.

 

[HH]

According to the Rail Industry Long Term strategy EMU's cost 45% less to maintain, 32% less to lease for a total of 37% savings from electrification, they also cost 39% less to operate (energy cost, track maintence, electrification equipment upkeep). Natural replacement of diesel trains with electric saves £346m or 14% of total rolling stock leasing costs by 2042 rising to £479m or 20% under the high growth scenario. The rolling stock plan calls for a simple cascade of electric replacing mid life diesels to replace older diesels which would save the industry 30%. This is based on the assumption of proportion of fleet that is electric to rise from 69% today to 80% by 2019 with committed schemes and then rising to 92/95% during the following 15 years meanwhile track mileage would rise from 41% to 51% and then another 8% in each following period.

They forecast that by the end of this control period the number of 75mph diesel vehicles required will reduce from 1055 to 779 and then 516 in the following control period and there is no requirement for new diesel multiple units to be built. Thats reduction is enough to phase out nearly all Pacers with the number remaining after 2019 able to be counted ten fingers.

Their numbers in comparing DMUs to EMUs are for new builds, and take into account the new European legislation I mentioned earlier. They are NOT a comparison of new EMUs versus current DMUs, which invalidates your whole argument.

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Yeah started months ago, as far as I know the first component to be shipped to Japan from the UK for fitting on IEP was £10m worth of Dellner Gangways three months ago, they started production last December.

Ah, I was thinking of the battery train. Bi-mode is the most expensive form of traction - no money to be saved there.

 

[WatcherZero]

Lets face it HH, youve consistently shown an unwillingness to accept presented factual reality that conflicts with your dream of enjoying modern rolling stock in Essex and laughing at cattle trucks in use 'oop north', you dont believe industry figures, you dont believe the latest industry statistics only weeks old.

You persist in your belief that a Turbostar ordered in 2007 at a unit cost of £1.3m per carriage generates a 300% return over its lifetime still costing £100k per year after 30 years? Its not like that, that Turbostar initially had a leasing cost of £180k, its already after 7 years had its annual leasing costs fall by 45% and the ROSCO will generally have recouped their investment over a 12-15 year period allowing them to drastically lower costs for the remainder when that 170 is 25 years old too its leasing costs will be in the £20-30k range. To give you another example the Pacer carriage that cost £17k per annum to lease in 2006 cost £650k to build 21 years earlier, British Rail finishing ammortising its capital cost before privatisation, the ROSCO initially charged £58,000 per year to lease it in 1997, i.e. its leasing costs fell by 75% over the eight years to 2006 and when first leased it cost more even before 15 years of inflation than a 158 costs to lease today, in fact adjusting for inflation that 142 will have cost £90k per carriage to lease in 1999, not much shy of the £100k turbostar.

However what we are talking about is not ordering brand new diesels, we are talking about using older EMU to cascade mid life DMU's.

 

[HH]

Lets face it HH, youve consistently shown an unwillingness to accept presented factual reality that conflicts with your dream of enjoying modern rolling stock in Essex and laughing at cattle trucks in use 'oop north', you dont believe industry figures, you dont believe the latest industry statistics only weeks old.

Actually I mostly use 'dusty bins', which are hardly modern. And I am not against better tains for the North. And exactly what industry statistics am I accused of not believing?

You persist in your belief that a Turbostar ordered in 2007 at a unit cost of £1.3m per carriage ... still costing £100k per year after 30 years?

I never said anything about 30 years, I was telling you what they cost today. Do you understand a section 54 undertaking?

 

[WatcherZero]

Yeah and as I have shown theyve already fallen 45% in annual leasing and by the end of the current control period will have fallen further. Again I repeat we arent talking about ordering brand new diesel trains or even new build EMU's, we are talking about the leasing cost of stock thats between two and three decades old and will continue to age going forward.

Section 54 undertaking only applies to new build stock, no one is talking about using new build stock only ammortised stock so Section 54 isnt relevant to the current debate, I have no idea why you are trying to bring it up. Even with a section 54 undertaking the repayment is profiled and annual leasing costs will fall and fall drastically once the undertaking has ended.

 

[HH]

Yeah and as I have shown theyve already fallen 45% in annual leasing and by the end of the current control period will have fallen further.

Where have you shown this? I know that ScotRail Class 170s are still costing £100k p.a. That might be less in real terms than when it started, but it's not much less than new stock costs today.

Section 54 undertaking only applies to new build stock, no one is talking about using new build stock only ammortised stock so Section 54 isnt relevant to the current debate, I have no idea why you are trying to bring it up. Even with a section 54 undertaking the repayment is profiled and annual leasing costs will fall and fall drastically once the undertaking has ended.

All stock was new build at one time. I've seen a 25 year lease profile and the rates do NOT fall over time. It's just like a mortgage - the amount of capital repaid goes up and the interest element goes down. Over the S54 life the payment stays as is. At the end of that time the ROSCO will charge what the market will bear. That is not usually a 'drastic' fall.

In addition there will be refurbishment costs that are added to the lease. I've seen quotes for refurbished HST sets following the introduction of IEP. The cost is eye-watering given that they must have been paid for many times over.

The trouble you have is that you read numbers in reports, but because you don't know how things actually work, you don't really understand them and draw erroneous conclusions from erroneous assumptions (that you don't even realise that you're making).