The 2019 General Election - Campaign Debate and Discussion

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by KashmireHawker, 29 Oct 2019.

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  1. KashmireHawker

    KashmireHawker Member

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    At long last, Labour has finally agreed to bite the bullet and support the PM's General Election proposal and thus we are heading to the polls, on a day during the week of December 9th - the first week infact of First Trenitalia's operation of the West Coast Partnership!

    Let this thread by one of the pre campaigning period and up until 10pm on Polling Day, with the usual zest of opinions which appear.

    Let it be said, strap yourselves in for the most consequential, dirty, dramatic and crazy campaign period's in British Electoral history.

    And with the British Election Study suggesting that 45% of voters are currently undecided, the indicators of the polls may certainly not be true.

    Bring it on and I hope one way or another, uncertainly of the kind is firmly put to rest!

     
    Last edited: 29 Oct 2019
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  3. nlogax

    nlogax Established Member

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    Lukewarm take; there's no way Labour are going to do well here.
     
  4. AlterEgo

    AlterEgo Veteran Member

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    I suspect Labour will not do too well, although I doubt Johnson will secure an absolute majority. I’m a bit sceptical as to whether he can run a General Election campaign.
     
  5. DynamicSpirit

    DynamicSpirit Established Member

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    I imagine one issue with the Dec 12 election is that some students who are registered at their Universities may have returned home and so may have trouble voting. I suspect that the Tories were very well aware of this when they suggested Dec 12 as an election date.
     
  6. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    Agreed. Corbyn on Brexit is a big problem in Labour heartlands. Corbyn generally is a big problem with middle England. Do you honestly think Labour, under Corbyn, can win in the key marginals they need to secure to take power? Do you think they can overturn the SNP in Scotland?

    I don't.

    This isnt a way to disenfranchise anyone. Apply for a postal vote like adults do. Do it now. Here is the link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apply-for-a-postal-vote

    And if you are not registered to vote get yourself registered. Now.
     
  7. Kite159

    Kite159 Veteran Member

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    Surely they would still be registered at their home address so will be able to vote, maybe getting a postal vote for their university address to accidentally vote twice. ;)
     
  8. Drogba11CFC

    Drogba11CFC Member

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    Can't say I've ever really had anything other than bad experiences with Corbyn supporters. The RMT for one, Stan Collymore for another, as well as the bloke that threatened me for being a Chelsea supporter at Winchester vs Moneyfields back in February 2015.
     
  9. DynamicSpirit

    DynamicSpirit Established Member

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    Oh sure. Anyone can do that. But it's causing a group of people, most of whom will be voting against the Tories, to have to make additional efforts in order to be able to vote, which is not the case for the majority of the population. It's inevitable that will cause some people to slip through the cracks, and thereby benefit the Tories electorally. I imagine they'll definitely have their eye on Canterbury, for example.
     
  10. radamfi

    radamfi Established Member

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    It is using First Past the Post. Therefore voting is pointless for most people.
     
  11. Starmill

    Starmill Veteran Member Associate Staff Events Co-ordinator

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    In terms expressed above about how popular the parties are, rather than how many seats they can win, in 2017, Labour won 41% of the vote. The Conservatives beat them by just 2.4 percentage points.

    This time round the stage is quite different. I will be quite shocked if either party breaks 40% vote share.
     
  12. bramling

    bramling Established Member

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    Agree entirely. I’m sick of hearing the moaning about how students might be affected. May elections nearly always clash with one of my annual holidays, so simple solution is postal vote. It isn’t complicated and it isn’t difficult.
     
  13. Bantamzen

    Bantamzen Established Member

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    I'm going to hibernate until Christmas. After three and a half years of Brexit, a second General Election is too much to take..... :(
     
  14. Darandio

    Darandio Established Member

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    I know things look bleak for Labour but i'm sure he has more than three supporters.......
     
  15. nlogax

    nlogax Established Member

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    I believe he has at least five, maybe six.
     
  16. Senex

    Senex Established Member

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    As usual!
     
  17. DynamicSpirit

    DynamicSpirit Established Member

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    It's not moaning about poor students. I'm perfectly well aware that people can apply for postal votes. It's pointing out that the timing of the election is likely to favour the Tories by reducing participation amongst a group of people who are generally hostile to the Tories. There's almost no plausible way that that isn't deliberate and somewhat politically-motivated.
     
  18. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    But that is what thousands in all walks of life will have to do if they want to vote. They have to get of their backside and do something. It is part of being a good citizen. The options are there. Use them. Don't whine. Organise.

    Can we not be silly please. look at the lists below.

    many remain voters backed Corbyn last time around. They wont. Many people knew nothing about Corbyn. They do now. lets not forget that for all the biggest membership in world and Corbyn is God fantasies Labour didn't win. They weren't close to winning.

    here is the list of labour target seats: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour how many do you think they will win in their surge to power? notice how 7 of the top 20 of them are in Scotland. Do yo think they will win there?

    here is the list of Labour seats they have to defend. They need to hold them all. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour#UKParliament Confident? Really? There are several in the North East where the Brexit party will be making a serious push to take them.
     
  19. radamfi

    radamfi Established Member

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    Those are lists of marginal seats. There are hundreds of safe seats. Even if you are in a marginal seat, what if your preferred candidate isn't in the top two?
     
  20. JonasB

    JonasB Member

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    I have to disagree, even if FPTP is a really bad system, voting is not pointless! A good explanation:
     
  21. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    Don't bother then. If you don't bother voting then don't bother to complain when something you like is taken away. Take part, even if just to lodge protest. Go and spoil your paper. Do something.
     
  22. Darandio

    Darandio Established Member

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    People spreading this around is a huge part of the problem. We need more people to become involved and start voting, not tell them not to bother.
     
  23. radamfi

    radamfi Established Member

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    Changing the voting system is absolutely critical. If there was a mass boycott of the polls then maybe people will take notice.
     
  24. radamfi

    radamfi Established Member

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    But unless you live in a marginal seat it makes no difference! Voting in the EU elections makes sense because it is under PR.
     
  25. bramling

    bramling Established Member

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    "Hostile to the Tories" or otherwise, if they were that hostile then they'd bother to make the effort.
     
  26. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    Don't bother then, but please stop complaining about it. It is your choice not to take part. Let those of us who do not share your fatalistic world view get on with it.
     
  27. radamfi

    radamfi Established Member

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    I've actually voted in every general election since 1992. But it was still pointless. I'm considering not voting for the first time. FPTP is totally unacceptable!
     
  28. Howardh

    Howardh Established Member

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    Not if you vote tactically to remove the Tories. Might not be voting for the party you want, which is the fault of first past the post.
     
  29. telstarbox

    telstarbox Established Member

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    I've just run some calculations on the 2017 results and I think it shows that only 28 seats were so safe that the winner couldn't have been unseated with a theoretical 100% turnout. These 28 include Birkenhead (very safe Labour) and Hampshire North East (very safe Conservative). That would leave 622 in play.

    File attached if anyone wants to check the working - column Q shows 1 for 'supersafe' and 0 for 'theoretically not safe'.
     

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  30. deltic

    deltic Established Member

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    From previous electioneering I would suggest electoral rolls are probably no more than 90% accurate and far less in areas with hih population turnover and you are assuming all those that dont vote would support the non-elected party. Non-voters electoral preferences may broadly reflect the voters preferences. From memory Cameron's 2015 election win was based on persuading around 100,000 people in marginal seats to vote Tory. There is now a days virtually no election campaign in the majority of Parliamentary seats.
     
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