The 2019 General Election - Campaign Debate and Discussion

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At long last, Labour has finally agreed to bite the bullet and support the PM's General Election proposal and thus we are heading to the polls, on a day during the week of December 9th - the first week infact of First Trenitalia's operation of the West Coast Partnership!

Let this thread by one of the pre campaigning period and up until 10pm on Polling Day, with the usual zest of opinions which appear.

Let it be said, strap yourselves in for the most consequential, dirty, dramatic and crazy campaign period's in British Electoral history.

And with the British Election Study suggesting that 45% of voters are currently undecided, the indicators of the polls may certainly not be true.

Bring it on and I hope one way or another, uncertainly of the kind is firmly put to rest!

The UK looks set for a December general election after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn announced his party was ready to fight the "most radical campaign ever".

Mr Corbyn said his condition of taking a no-deal Brexit off the table had now been met after the EU agreed to extend the deadline until 31 January 2020.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson can only hold an election with the support of MPs - who have blocked it three times.

The PM will make a fresh attempt to get their backing in Parliament later.

The government bill published ahead of the Commons debate is for an early election on 12 December.

 
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AlterEgo

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I suspect Labour will not do too well, although I doubt Johnson will secure an absolute majority. I’m a bit sceptical as to whether he can run a General Election campaign.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I imagine one issue with the Dec 12 election is that some students who are registered at their Universities may have returned home and so may have trouble voting. I suspect that the Tories were very well aware of this when they suggested Dec 12 as an election date.
 

DarloRich

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Lukewarm take; there's no way Labour are going to do well here.
I suspect Labour will not do too well, although I doubt Johnson will secure an absolute majority. I’m a bit sceptical as to whether he can run a General Election campaign.
Agreed. Corbyn on Brexit is a big problem in Labour heartlands. Corbyn generally is a big problem with middle England. Do you honestly think Labour, under Corbyn, can win in the key marginals they need to secure to take power? Do you think they can overturn the SNP in Scotland?

I don't.

I imagine one issue with the Dec 12 election is that some students who are registered at their Universities may have returned home and so may have trouble voting. I suspect that the Tories were very well aware of this when they suggested Dec 12 as an election date.
This isnt a way to disenfranchise anyone. Apply for a postal vote like adults do. Do it now. Here is the link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apply-for-a-postal-vote

And if you are not registered to vote get yourself registered. Now.
 

Kite159

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I imagine one issue with the Dec 12 election is that some students who are registered at their Universities may have returned home and so may have trouble voting. I suspect that the Tories were very well aware of this when they suggested Dec 12 as an election date.
Surely they would still be registered at their home address so will be able to vote, maybe getting a postal vote for their university address to accidentally vote twice. ;)
 

Drogba11CFC

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Can't say I've ever really had anything other than bad experiences with Corbyn supporters. The RMT for one, Stan Collymore for another, as well as the bloke that threatened me for being a Chelsea supporter at Winchester vs Moneyfields back in February 2015.
 

DynamicSpirit

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This isnt a way to disenfranchise anyone. Apply for a postal vote like adults do. Do it now. Here is the link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apply-for-a-postal-vote

And if you are not registered to vote get yourself registered. Now.
Oh sure. Anyone can do that. But it's causing a group of people, most of whom will be voting against the Tories, to have to make additional efforts in order to be able to vote, which is not the case for the majority of the population. It's inevitable that will cause some people to slip through the cracks, and thereby benefit the Tories electorally. I imagine they'll definitely have their eye on Canterbury, for example.
 

Starmill

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In terms expressed above about how popular the parties are, rather than how many seats they can win, in 2017, Labour won 41% of the vote. The Conservatives beat them by just 2.4 percentage points.

This time round the stage is quite different. I will be quite shocked if either party breaks 40% vote share.
 

bramling

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This isnt a way to disenfranchise anyone. Apply for a postal vote like adults do. Do it now. Here is the link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apply-for-a-postal-vote

And if you are not registered to vote get yourself registered. Now.
Agree entirely. I’m sick of hearing the moaning about how students might be affected. May elections nearly always clash with one of my annual holidays, so simple solution is postal vote. It isn’t complicated and it isn’t difficult.
 

Darandio

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Can't say I've ever really had anything other than bad experiences with Corbyn supporters. The RMT for one, Stan Collymore for another, as well as the bloke that threatened me for being a Chelsea supporter at Winchester vs Moneyfields back in February 2015.
I know things look bleak for Labour but i'm sure he has more than three supporters.......
 

DynamicSpirit

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Agree entirely. I’m sick of hearing the moaning about how students might be affected. May elections nearly always clash with one of my annual holidays, so simple solution is postal vote. It isn’t complicated and it isn’t difficult.
It's not moaning about poor students. I'm perfectly well aware that people can apply for postal votes. It's pointing out that the timing of the election is likely to favour the Tories by reducing participation amongst a group of people who are generally hostile to the Tories. There's almost no plausible way that that isn't deliberate and somewhat politically-motivated.
 

DarloRich

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Oh sure. Anyone can do that. But it's causing a group of people, most of whom will be voting against the Tories, to have to make additional efforts in order to be able to vote, which is not the case for the majority of the population. It's inevitable that will cause some people to slip through the cracks, and thereby benefit the Tories electorally. I imagine they'll definitely have their eye on Canterbury, for example.
But that is what thousands in all walks of life will have to do if they want to vote. They have to get of their backside and do something. It is part of being a good citizen. The options are there. Use them. Don't whine. Organise.

It is using First Past the Post. Therefore voting is pointless for most people.
Can we not be silly please. look at the lists below.

Some wise words from last time round on the evisceration of Labour, scepticism over polls and doubts over Momentum's campaigning efficiency
many remain voters backed Corbyn last time around. They wont. Many people knew nothing about Corbyn. They do now. lets not forget that for all the biggest membership in world and Corbyn is God fantasies Labour didn't win. They weren't close to winning.

here is the list of labour target seats: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour how many do you think they will win in their surge to power? notice how 7 of the top 20 of them are in Scotland. Do yo think they will win there?

here is the list of Labour seats they have to defend. They need to hold them all. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour#UKParliament Confident? Really? There are several in the North East where the Brexit party will be making a serious push to take them.
 

DarloRich

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Those are lists of marginal seats. There are hundreds of safe seats. Even if you are in a marginal seat, what if your preferred candidate isn't in the top two?
Don't bother then. If you don't bother voting then don't bother to complain when something you like is taken away. Take part, even if just to lodge protest. Go and spoil your paper. Do something.
 

radamfi

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People spreading this around is a huge part of the problem. We need more people to become involved and start voting, not tell them not to bother.
Changing the voting system is absolutely critical. If there was a mass boycott of the polls then maybe people will take notice.
 

radamfi

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Don't bother then. If you don't bother voting then don't bother to complain when something you like is taken away. Take part, even if just to lodge protest. Go and spoil your paper. Do something.
But unless you live in a marginal seat it makes no difference! Voting in the EU elections makes sense because it is under PR.
 

bramling

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It's not moaning about poor students. I'm perfectly well aware that people can apply for postal votes. It's pointing out that the timing of the election is likely to favour the Tories by reducing participation amongst a group of people who are generally hostile to the Tories. There's almost no plausible way that that isn't deliberate and somewhat politically-motivated.
"Hostile to the Tories" or otherwise, if they were that hostile then they'd bother to make the effort.
 

radamfi

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Don't bother then, but please stop complaining about it. It is your choice not to take part. Let those of us who do not share your fatalistic world view get on with it.
I've actually voted in every general election since 1992. But it was still pointless. I'm considering not voting for the first time. FPTP is totally unacceptable!
 

Howardh

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It is using First Past the Post. Therefore voting is pointless for most people.
Not if you vote tactically to remove the Tories. Might not be voting for the party you want, which is the fault of first past the post.
 

telstarbox

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I've just run some calculations on the 2017 results and I think it shows that only 28 seats were so safe that the winner couldn't have been unseated with a theoretical 100% turnout. These 28 include Birkenhead (very safe Labour) and Hampshire North East (very safe Conservative). That would leave 622 in play.

File attached if anyone wants to check the working - column Q shows 1 for 'supersafe' and 0 for 'theoretically not safe'.
 

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deltic

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I've just run some calculations on the 2017 results and I think it shows that only 28 seats were so safe that the winner couldn't have been unseated with a theoretical 100% turnout. These 28 include Birkenhead (very safe Labour) and Hampshire North East (very safe Conservative). That would leave 622 in play.

File attached if anyone wants to check the working - column Q shows 1 for 'supersafe' and 0 for 'theoretically not safe'.
From previous electioneering I would suggest electoral rolls are probably no more than 90% accurate and far less in areas with hih population turnover and you are assuming all those that dont vote would support the non-elected party. Non-voters electoral preferences may broadly reflect the voters preferences. From memory Cameron's 2015 election win was based on persuading around 100,000 people in marginal seats to vote Tory. There is now a days virtually no election campaign in the majority of Parliamentary seats.
 
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