The 2019 General Election - Campaign Debate and Discussion

[Busaholic]

There needs to be a pact between them and Labour to make a real difference.

Not going to happen, though.

 

[Kite159]

I see Jeremy Corbyn has promised to remove hospital parking fees. This may seem laudable but will encourage car use and remove a revenue source for the NHS and would seem to go in the opposite direction of net zero carbon and climate change emergency and encouraging public transport.

And I can see some management companies who operate the car parking under the PFI deal to expect a bit of money for the contracts to be purchased from themselves. Unless Steptoe will wait however long until the contract expires to bring it free.

(I see there is mention of lots of money being spent on making houses green, with free money given to "low income" and interest-free loans for "Wealthy households" [being paid back by the savings on energy bills], giving that magical money tree a good shape, but I guess it will keep cold callers happy like it did the last time government grants were available for green home improvements]

 

[bramling]

Based on the average of the last 8 polls the Tories are looking at a majority of a 100+ - its going to take some massive shift by Labour's famous electioneering machine or for the Brexit Party to make serious inroads into the Tory vote to prevent a Boris win.

The average of the 8 polls has

Con 39% Lab 27% Lib Dem 16% Brexit Party 10% Green 3%

Scotland and Northern Ireland excluded as usual

Does this not depend on how the vote shares fall relative to the electoral system though? As we found out in 2017 healthy vote share doesn’t always translate into a majority. Likewise we wait to see how Corbyn’s vote share holds up, last time he performed better than expected, and that was against a backdrop of events like the leadership challenge.

On the other side May did have a disastrous campaign, like a fizzy drink that had gone flat - too much of a negative campaign IMO and not enough positive reasons for different groups of people to want to vote Conservatives (ie a broad range of attractive policies with something to appeal to everyone).

 

[JonasB]

Which European countries outside the UK have free hospital parking?

In Sweden: no free parking in general, it's up to each hospital to decide. And it has actually been the source of quite a heated debate in my hometown.

 

[peri]

Any reasonable person looking at America would not want that happening over here.
Do not vote for the anyone who reminds you of Trump (hint: floppy blonde haired fool trying to subvert the rule of law).
The best things going for Corbyn (much as in all his contests) are the alternatives.
Would be nice to see a campaign where all the Labour candidates fought to win
instead of finding a scapegoat before the result.

 

[thenorthern]

One thing to remember is when the election gets underway properly on Tuesday the strict impartially rules come in meaning broadcasters must be impartial and give coverage based on things other than just going by what the opinion polls say such as previous history, number of MPs standing and realistic chance of the party winning the election.

In simple terms it means that throughout the United Kingdom as a whole Labour and the Conservative Party will get by far the most coverage while smaller parties will get less coverage. Once this happens both main parties will start climbing in the polls and the other smaller parties will begin to lose support.

 

[DarloRich]

You confuse legitimate tax planning with tax avoidance. Tax planning as in an IS A is arranging your affairs in line with the way the laws was intended. Avoidance is taking advantage of loopholes is unintended consequences of the legislation. Evasion is failing to pay the tax due.

I am fully aware of the difference. thanks.

 

[Butts]

There needs to be a pact between them and Labour to make a real difference.

Some of us are old enough to remember the last Lib/Lab pact - it didn't end well for "Chicken Jim" and David Steele !!

 

[SteveP29]

There is no magic money tree for any political party.

Theresa May seemed to find one no problem

 

[433N]

There is no magic money tree for any political party.

Theresa May seemed to find one no problem

Perhaps Theresa May suddenly found out that the Bank of England can print money . Wowza. Shock horror, who'd have thought.

.... not only that, they can print as much as they want ever since September 19th 1931 when Britain abandoned the gold standard.

This 'magic money tree' should be read as 'there is no money for things that we Tories don't want to spend it on, but there is money for things we Tories do want to spend it on.'

Whilst printing money devalues the pound, it is nothing compared to the devaluation wrought by Brexit ... 10 years of austerity and misery for absolutely nothing. Well done, Tories. But I'm sure good ole Joe Public will still vote for the Food Bank Party having been told 'the truth' by right wing comics masquerading as newspapers. That's democracy, folks.

 

[transmanche]

Some of us are old enough to remember the last Lib/Lab pact - it didn't end well for "Chicken Jim" and David Steele !!

That wasn't an electoral pact though. More like the 'confidence and supply' agreement the government currently has with the DUP.

 

[underbank]

The Tories have lowered taxes for low earners and lowered taxes for high earners

Actually, lots of higher earners pay more tax these days due to the £50k threshold for child benefit claw back and the £100k threshold for clawback of the personal allowance and the pension lifetime limits/annual contributions restrictions. HMRC are also putting a lot more effort into tacking tax evasion, such as the loan/trust schemes and IR35, abuse of both of which increased massively under Brown who seemed to ignore tax evasion. The Tories have also changed rules on Entrprenneurs relief, lettings relief, etc which impact on high earners rather than low earners. So, despite peoples' perceptions, the Tories have actually done a lot to increase taxes paid by the wealthy!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Whilst printing money devalues the pound, it is nothing compared to the devaluation wrought by Brexit ... 10 years of austerity and misery for absolutely nothing.

Well to some extent that depends on how much money you 'print'. It's certainly possible to completely wreck the economy if you print loads and loads of money - to an extent far greater than Brexit would inflict - although relatively few countries have gone down that path, and I certainly don't think Labour is in anything like that territory. If anything, it looks like the Tories who are currently most threatening the economy, since they are offering of combination of unfunded spending promises AND tax cuts AND Brexit. Labour at least are to some extent suggesting some tax increases to (partly) pay for their planned spending increases.

By the way printing money can also cause (potentially, severe) inflation as well as devaluing the currency.

 

[ainsworth74]

The hospital car parking charge issue was interesting but definitely starting to wander off from the topic of the General Election so I've moved the last few posts on that issue to a new thread which can be found here.

 

[Howardh]

The hospital car parking charge issue was interesting but definitely starting to wander off from the topic of the General Election so I've moved the last few posts on that issue to a new thread which can be found here.

And we haven't even started about charging to park at work!!

As for the NHS and social care for the elderly; it's a pity it's only just started to be of concern to the parties when they have been wasting over three years on an ego-trip which, if we have a hung parliament, may still mean we vote to revoke Brexit.

Looking at mum, I have been very lucky in that she qualifies for NHS continual care funding, meaning her fees are paid for and not means-tested leaving me an inheritance (and a house) to compensate for the 5+ years wages I haven't had (and pension contributions) since I took up full-time care. NB_ she lives at home still.

Last time (2017) there were numerous carers like me threatened with losing the roof over our heads to pay for the care of our parents - a worry none of us should have had.

 

[433N]

As for the NHS and social care for the elderly; it's a pity it's only just started to be of concern to the parties when they have been wasting over three years on an ego-trip which, if we have a hung parliament, may still mean we vote to revoke Brexit.

Last time (2017) there were numerous carers like me threatened with losing the roof over our heads to pay for the care of our parents - a worry none of us should have had.

It would be interesting to know plans for social care because I think that is what finished Theresa May. She suggested that the user pays if they have worth over £100k because she clearly stated that £100k was enough to pass on to benefactors through inheritance.

She back-tracked probably as soon as it was pointed out to her that this would mean almost all of the inherited wealth of the rich should be taxed at 100% and her copybook was well and truly blotted as far as the rich and privileged Tories were concerned.

This is probably why she could make no progress on Brexit without being blocked by the likes of Rees-Mogg and the ERG nutters.

 

[Master29]

1/ Sort Brexit
2/ Sort HS2 ie scrap it
3/ Sort NHS through monies from HS2
4/ Sort Policing through monies from HS2.
Admittedly the 2nd one I don’t think will happen which casts a cloud on both 3 & 4.
Not everyone wants HS2 however so there is hope.
I’ll vote for it to be scrapped as long as I’ve air in my lungs.

If Labour win then taxes will go up to pay for the NHS & policing & people will be encouraged to spend what they can’t afford & it’ll be a slippery slope to recession.

And we’re back to square one.

OMG the Daily Mail have actually cloned a human newspaper (loosely termed I admit) hybrid.

 

[mmh]

Whilst printing money devalues the pound, it is nothing compared to the devaluation wrought by Brexit ... 10 years of austerity and misery for absolutely nothing. Well done, Tories.

The pound collapsed against the Euro in 2007-2008, and right now is at a rate equivalent to before anybody thought Britain would ever leave the EU (which we haven't, in case you hadn't heard. As for the Tories, you mean the pro-EU Tories who campaigned to stay in the EU?

But let's not let facts get in the way of a rant.

 

[Howardh]

The pound collapsed against the Euro in 2007-2008, and right now is at a rate equivalent to before anybody thought Britain would ever leave the EU (which we haven't, in case you hadn't heard. As for the Tories, you mean the pro-EU Tories who campaigned to stay in the EU?

But let's not let facts get in the way of a rant.

Would be nice to know how high the £ would be now if Brexit had never even been discussed, let alone voted on. In 2015 I think I was getting over 1.20 euros to the £ as a tourist, so one would suspect that it would be 1.25 at least now, compared to parity in 2008. We'll never know; but tourists will have to fork out about a tenner just to fill in an ETIAS form + possibly increased health insurance costs to travel abroad (EU/EEA) and nearly £80 for a full-on visa if they want to stay longer than 90 days in 180.

But at least Boris had that printed on the side of his bus so it was all clear and up-front.

Didn't he???

 

[433N]

The pound collapsed against the Euro in 2007-2008, and right now is at a rate equivalent to before anybody thought Britain would ever leave the EU (which we haven't, in case you hadn't heard. As for the Tories, you mean the pro-EU Tories who campaigned to stay in the EU?

But let's not let facts get in the way of a rant.

Yes. Let's select the facts we would like to believe instead.

I would have thought it self-evident that the GBP-EUR exchange rate isn't the one to be watched ; trade is (currently) so intertwined between Britain and Euroland that there is bound to be a big correlation. In fact, your whole point on 2007-2008 GBP against the EUR collapsing is null since it was a time when not even banks knew what the financial security of each other was and to what extent they would need state intervention - so exchange rates reflected best guesses rather than being rooted in any kind of reality. In fact, the stability of the EUR / GBP conversion rate since the euro's inception is the best possible argument for the UK joining the euro (something which would apparently be the worst of all evils).

If you want to look at an exchange rate, look at the GBP - USD or JPY and what happened on the referendum result and what the recovery has been (if any , i.e. there hasn't). The GBP has fallen (and will probably fall further on Brexit itself).

So no, I don't mean the pro-EU Tories. Tories said we needed austerity in 2010 to balance the books. They could have tried a public spending programme to stimulate growth by printing money but didn't and decided that the nation's finance were best regarded as a piggy bank so simpletons could pretend they understood economics. After impoverishing many, the GBP has fallen to levels (against the USD and JPY) probably far below what they would have been had they printed a bit more money because of the prospect of Brexit.

Not a rant - just rationalisation of the facts. Sorry if it doesn't suit.

 

[hkstudent]

Yes. Let's select the facts we would like to believe instead.

I would have thought it self-evident that the GBP-EUR exchange rate isn't the one to be watched ; trade is (currently) so intertwined between Britain and Euroland that there is bound to be a big correlation. In fact, your whole point on 2007-2008 GBP against the EUR collapsing is null since it was a time when not even banks knew what the financial security of each other was and to what extent they would need state intervention - so exchange rates reflected best guesses rather than being rooted in any kind of reality. In fact, the stability of the EUR / GBP conversion rate since the euro's inception is the best possible argument for the UK joining the euro (something which would apparently be the worst of all evils).

If you want to look at an exchange rate, look at the GBP - USD or JPY and what happened on the referendum result and what the recovery has been (if any , i.e. there hasn't). The GBP has fallen (and will probably fall further on Brexit itself).

So no, I don't mean the pro-EU Tories. Tories said we needed austerity in 2010 to balance the books. They could have tried a public spending programme to stimulate growth by printing money but didn't and decided that the nation's finance were best regarded as a piggy bank so simpletons could pretend they understood economics. After impoverishing many, the GBP has fallen to levels (against the USD and JPY) probably far below what they would have been had they printed a bit more money because of the prospect of Brexit.

Not a rant - just rationalisation of the facts. Sorry if it doesn't suit.

Indeed, the pound in real term did fall. It would also be worth looking at the rise of precious metal price (gold / platinum) againist pound. Even CAD / CHF/ AUD's rate has risen agaisit GBP.

 

[ABB125]

Someone I know who will be just old enough to vote in the election said today that they'd "never thought (they'd) vote Tory" but were considering them as the best option. This is someone who is definitely to the left of the political spectrum and against Brexit.
Someone else I know said that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn because he's a hypocrite ("we want an election"/"actually, we don't").

I think the outcome of this election will be...hard to predict. But it will be interesting to watch...

 

[ComUtoR]

I think the outcome of this election will be...hard to predict. But it will be interesting to watch...

Conservative win, barely scraping a majority - Leadership challenge
Labour second with cries of Jeremy screwed it up - Leadership challenge
Brexit party gets a few seats, still fails miserably but enough to split the vote - Party dissolved after Brexit
Lib Dems - LOL - Swinson quits, Chuka Umunna, loses seat, fails at Leadership challenge, changes party again.
Change UK - Er... who are they, get zero seats.
Green - 1 seat (maybe)

Brexit delayed again, Brexit delayed again, Brexit delayed again. December referendum.

Or Boris spanks it home and we leave in March after another delay but Conservative Majority pushes it through after pandering to the rest of parliament, backbenchers, and remainers. 2yrs of complete misery, another General Election.

 

[ABB125]

Conservative win, barely scraping a majority - Leadership challenge
Labour second with cries of Jeremy screwed it up - Leadership challenge
Brexit party gets a few seats, still fails miserably but enough to split the vote - Party dissolved after Brexit
Lib Dems - LOL - Swinson quits, Chuka Umunna, loses seat, fails at Leadership challenge, changes party again.
Change UK - Er... who are they, get zero seats.
Green - 1 seat (maybe)

Brexit delayed again, Brexit delayed again, Brexit delayed again. December referendum.

Or Boris spanks it home and we leave in March after another delay but Conservative Majority pushes it through after pandering to the rest of parliament, backbenchers, and remainers. 2yrs of complete misery, another General Election.

How confident are you with your predictions?

 

[ComUtoR]

A Gentlemans wager with a friendly £5 voucher of your choice. (come back in 6 months)

Top 2 I'm relatively confident in.
Caroline Lucas is a pretty solid bet for the Greens.

Brexit Party and Change UK still feel like a protest vote but their overall impact has seriously diminished and their supporters that come from the more 'radical' side may remain and gain them a couple of seats. I'm not confident in what will happen with them but I think they will still split the vote or at least have the power to if they made an effort.

Lib Dems have put a lot into playing for the remain vote. It's a huge risk and personally I think a stupid one. Jo Swinsons head is on the block for it and I'd be stunned if they make any real impact. Jo will have little choice but to step down and the Lib Dems will have to fight to become relevant after Brexit. Even if Labour/Lib Dem were to win or form a majority I don't think the country would survive another referendum and more chaos would ensue. That would still cost her and she would be forced to step down as she would have to back Brexit.

Chuka Umunna - Never liked him, total snake. No real prediction and more there for the luls. Personally I hope he loses and bows out of politics. I think they have put him into a pretty safe Conservative seat (not that I'm a cynic) When he loses, I reckon he will jump ship again.

Even though Conservative is ahead in the polls, they rarely represent the final outcome and people will hold their cards close. Boris appeals to the masses but he is marmite to the establishment. I think he is the face of Brexit so they have him as Leader and the second Brexit is done there will be a leadership challenge. Corbyn has survived the chop before but again, I think his head is on the line and its time to put up or shut up.

 

[ABB125]

A Gentlemans wager with a friendly £5 voucher of your choice. (come back in 6 months)

Top 2 I'm relatively confident in.
Caroline Lucas is a pretty solid bet for the Greens.

Brexit Party and Change UK still feel like a protest vote but their overall impact has seriously diminished and their supporters that come from the more 'radical' side may remain and gain them a couple of seats. I'm not confident in what will happen with them but I think they will still split the vote or at least have the power to if they made an effort.

Lib Dems have put a lot into playing for the remain vote. It's a huge risk and personally I think a stupid one. Jo Swinsons head is on the block for it and I'd be stunned if they make any real impact. Jo will have little choice but to step down and the Lib Dems will have to fight to become relevant after Brexit. Even if Labour/Lib Dem were to win or form a majority I don't think the country would survive another referendum and more chaos would ensue. That would still cost her and she would be forced to step down as she would have to back Brexit.

Chuka Umunna - Never liked him, total snake. No real prediction and more there for the luls. Personally I hope he loses and bows out of politics. I think they have put him into a pretty safe Conservative seat (not that I'm a cynic) When he loses, I reckon he will jump ship again.

Even though Conservative is ahead in the polls, they rarely represent the final outcome and people will hold their cards close. Boris appeals to the masses but he is marmite to the establishment. I think he is the face of Brexit so they have him as Leader and the second Brexit is done there will be a leadership challenge. Corbyn has survived the chop before but again, I think his head is on the line and its time to put up or shut up.

Interesting, we shall have to wait and see!

 

[Butts]

Conservative win, barely scraping a majority - Leadership challenge
Labour second with cries of Jeremy screwed it up - Leadership challenge
Brexit party gets a few seats, still fails miserably but enough to split the vote - Party dissolved after Brexit
Lib Dems - LOL - Swinson quits, Chuka Umunna, loses seat, fails at Leadership challenge, changes party again.
Change UK - Er... who are they, get zero seats.
Green - 1 seat (maybe)

Brexit delayed again, Brexit delayed again, Brexit delayed again. December referendum.

Or Boris spanks it home and we leave in March after another delay but Conservative Majority pushes it through after pandering to the rest of parliament, backbenchers, and remainers. 2yrs of complete misery, another General Election.

What about the Womens Equality Party ? - they seem to have sunk without trace !!

 

[radamfi]

Lib Dems have put a lot into playing for the remain vote. It's a huge risk and personally I think a stupid one. Jo Swinsons head is on the block for it and I'd be stunned if they make any real impact. Jo will have little choice but to step down and the Lib Dems will have to fight to become relevant after Brexit.

There's still plenty to play for even if May's (I mean Johnson's) deal passes after the election. They will campaign for the post-deal relationship with the EU to be as close as possible. Eventually they will want to rejoin the EU or at least the single market.

 

[ComUtoR]

They will campaign for the post-deal relationship with the EU to be as close as possible. Eventually they will want to rejoin the EU or at least the single market.

If they went down that route then they will fall into the trap of becoming the new 'Brexit Party'; a party with a single mandate. After Brexit happens; voter apathy will kick back in. Nobody will care after we leave. Nobody cared before about trade agreements or the single market. Even the politicians want to get back to the business of running the country. This election is still very much a leave/remain vote. A couple of years fighting it out and squabbling over the details and then another election based on 'real' politics and deciding who gets to run the country.

I genuinely believe once Brexit is all over its back to normal, politics will fall from public consciousness once again. Trust is at its all time low and I think people have seen their MP in their true colours. I also believe, like many commentators do and numerous politicians. If we don't leave, there will be huge uproar. Listening to people on the street, I have never heard so many people say that if we don't leave all trust in democracy is gone and they will never vote again. I know for the first time I have checked the records to see which way my local MP voted purely I wanted to see how 'trustworthy' he is and where he stood on Brexit compared to his constituency. The last time I checked anything about my local MP was during the expenses scandal.

I'm not politically motivated but Brexit has galvanized my stance and attitudes towards how this country is being run and who by.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I genuinely believe once Brexit is all over its back to normal, politics will fall from public consciousness once again. Trust is at its all time low and I think people have seen their MP in their true colours. I also believe, like many commentators do and numerous politicians. If we don't leave, there will be huge uproar.

Would that be like the huge uproar that was being predicted if we didn't leave on 31st October?