The 2019 General Election Result and Aftermath

[yorksrob]

The original offering was Cameron would do a great renegotiation and then we would have a referendum whether to accept the 'new deal for Britain'. Those with memories that go back to 1973/4/5 will find that vaguely familiar.

In reality he came back with next to nothing, but he couldn't drop the referendum promise. So the referendum went ahead with the renegotiation quietly forgotten about. The Remain side certainly didn't trumpet Cameron's 'successful' renegotiation then because anyone could see it was worth diddly squat.

The official Government booklet sent to all households does mention "The UK has secured a special status in a reformed EU", but the bullet points following are all things that we already had (such as not needing to join the Euro). If anyone knows what this "reformed EU" was I would be grateful for further details, since anything substantive would require TFEU amendment (or so I am told).

"Ever closer union" is a fairly central principle of the whole thing. Negotiating it away was a big deal.

 

[Esker-pades]

I didn’t vote leave because I thought it would make the country richer. If leaving the EU makes us all poorer, that’s fine by me. It’s a question of democracy and self determination - a deeply emotional and visceral matter for me.

OK. What does that mean?

 

[43066]

OK. What does that mean?

When you really get down to the brass tacks it’s mostly down to emotion and an overwhelming sense that, for all its flaws, I love this country and I want it to retain its status as a self governing democracy.

I guess it’s the same feeling that made one of my ancestors go over the top on the Somme, and cop a bullet in the head.

The same feeling that made my grandfather fly fighter aircraft during WWII at incredible risk to his own life and limb.

It’s a feeling I’d happily pick up a rifle to defend...

Seems ridiculous to write that on an iPhone
in 2019, but it’s that visceral and real for me.

 

[Starmill]

Yes. I know this is probably pointless. The UK will leave the EU. It still doesn't mean I'm just going to shut up.

And quite right too. We are all perfectly entitled to go on making the argument that what is about to happen is wrong, and then once it is done that it was a mistake. One day, perhaps 10 to 20 years from now, that argument may be vindicated and the UK will move to Accession Negotiations. That at least is still possible in the long term.

 

[43066]

And quite right too. We are all perfectly entitled to go on making the argument that what is about to happen is wrong, and then once it is done that it was a mistake. One day, perhaps 10 to 20 years from now, that argument may be vindicated and the UK will move to Accession Negotiations. That at least is still possible in the long term.

You may well believe it’s wrong.

But you also need to accept that the 2016 referendum didn’t go your way, and that there are a great many people in this country who fundamentally disagree with you.

The election result underlines that once and for all.

Democracy really sucks...

 

[Starmill]

But we had a referendum on that too and AV lost convincingly. A lot of Labour supporters said no to AV; no sympathy here.

That was because AV wasn't proper PR. That it was a rubbish idea has no bearing on the other thoughts thoughts people have about FPTP, except that AV is not better.

 

[43066]

That was because AV wasn't proper PR. That it was a rubbish idea has no bearing on the other thoughts thoughts people have about FPTP, except that AV is not better.

Aha!

Another democratic result that doesn’t meet with your approval, that you seek to dismiss .

 

[Starmill]

Healthy democracies require losers’ consent to function, something we aren’t seeing with Remainers telling Leavers they now “own” whatever happens.

I wouldn't describe our democracy as healthy even slightly under FPTP, but it's totally clear that the government has to own what happens next - it's their policy. That's how it works. Any suggestion to the contrary is crazy. If Brexit causes problems with which people are unhappy, the Conservative party and the government are those accountable. With a large measure of good luck the new Leader of the Opposition will make doing this job their daily mission.

Even you can't complain that we're going to hold the government to account...

 

[Starmill]

"Ever closer union" is a fairly central principle of the whole thing. Negotiating it away was a big deal.

I have been saying exactly this for 4 years since we first got the news of the renegotiation. Nobody seems to have listened at any point.

 

[43066]

Even you can't complain that we're going to hold the government to accoun

When you say “we’re going to hold the government to account”, I have to ask, who exactly do you mean?

You do realise that the scale of this victory most likely means a decade plus of Tory rule?

The electorate have just given BoJo a blank check to do precisely what he bloody well wants...

But I’m sure he’s eagerly awaiting your feedback.

 

[Starmill]

The UK on the other hand has actually not stopped piling on the debt and continues to spend more than it gets in in taxes. The Germans may well start spending soon as China’s slowdown has hit them a lot but they can very easily loosen the purse strings. Hmmm I wonder which one needs a trade deal more? The EU have just secured a massive trade deal with South America. Brexiteers seem to think these trade deals can be done in a few weeks, they will soon find out the hard way that isn’t the case.

It's certainly true that appallingly bad economic management by the Conservative party, along with their ideological opposition to the minor tax increases that would get us close to an eliminated deficit, now leaves the economy in an absolutely terrible state to face any forms of exogenous shock. It doesn't matter what the shock is, whether it were a natural disaster or an exit with no trade deal at the end of 2020.

 

[yorksrob]

I have been saying exactly this for 4 years since we first got the news of the renegotiation. Nobody seems to have listened at any point.

Indeed. It's still quite constitutional though, and would have taken a few years to see how it worked through into day to day life.

 

[Starmill]

And this is the whole problem with the referendum. Your version of Brexit is different to what Johnson (leave voter & campaigner) thinks it is, which is in turn different to what Michael Gove thinks it is (who voted in favour of May's deal). That's before we consider the voting record of Johnson as an individual (both for and against the deal).

I find it bamboozling how so many people seem to have airbrushed the Brexit-supporting MP's vehement opposition to, er, well, Brexit out of history. It's like the May years never happened.

 

[43066]

Indeed. It's still quite constitutional though, and would have taken a few years to see how it worked through into day to day life.

“Ever closer union” is still embedded into the preamble of the Treaty of Rome, last I checked.

No thanks.

 

[yorksrob]

“Ever closer union” is still embedded into the preamble of the Treaty of Rome, last I checked.

No thanks.

Treaties are changed and amended over time.

 

[43066]

I find it bamboozling how so many people seem to have airbrushed the Brexit-supporting MP's vehement opposition to, er, well, Brexit out of history. It's like the May years never happened.

And I find it bamboozling how so many remain voters have airbrushed the 2016 result out of their brains, as if it never happened.

I guess yet more head in the sand politics is the way forward for die hard remainers. 17.4 million of us thick, idiot leavers are an inconvenient problem, and we won’t be going anywhere anytime soon...

You’re right in one respect. TM’s years are completely and utterly irrelevant. We now, belatedly, find ourselves luxuriating in the state we should have been in, in 2017, if only TM hadn’t royally screwed it all up.

Thanks to the continued remainer bleating, and complaining, that didn’t exactly play well with the wider electorate, you guys now find yourselves staring down the barrel of a Conservative landslide, and the spectre of a decade + of a staunchly right wing Tory administration.

You only have yourselves to blame. I find that deeply, deeply satisfying .

 

[TrafficEng]

"Ever closer union" is a fairly central principle of the whole thing. Negotiating it away was a big deal.

Not really. Opt outs and the veto have also been central principles since the year dot. We didn't fancy Schengen or the Euro, so we opted out. The next big integration thing (perhaps the army?) we could veto.

So in a sense this 'concession' was not simply giving us what we had already, it actually formalised an agreement that the UK wouldn't veto closer integration because we would sit contentedly* to one side, completely aloof from it all.

This really exemplifies one of the 'EU' things that many Leavers don't like. Being 'given' something which was ours already, and told we should be grateful for the excellent deal we are getting. A bit like getting back some of the money we gave them in the first place.

Very often this isn't the EU's fault. It normally happens as a result of the spin the UK Government (especially Blair and Brown) applied to convince people how great the EU really is. That bubble finally popped in 2016.

* For leavers this contentment is an uneasy one. The Government of the day can opt out, but there is nothing stopping a future Government opting us in. See "The Social Chapter". And of course, once in you can never leave. From a Leaver's perspective, Cameron's opt-out was only good so long as Cameron was PM. Due to the lack of trust in UK politics the sentiment was something like 'better off being rid of it all for good'.

 

[TrafficEng]

I have been saying exactly this for 4 years since we first got the news of the renegotiation. Nobody seems to have listened at any point.

I didn't know you 4 years ago. Please see my last post for why I believe you are wrong.

 

[TrafficEng]

I find it bamboozling how so many people seem to have airbrushed the Brexit-supporting MP's vehement opposition to, er, well, Brexit out of history. It's like the May years never happened.

If I may attempt to unbamboozle you.

The Brexit-supporting MPs have never (well not since 2016) opposed (vehemently or otherwise) Brexit.

It cannot be airbrushed out of history, because it never happened.

Some Brexit-supporting MPs opposed a deal with the EU (which we were told was the one, the only, and the best we would ever get).

One of the Brexit-supporting MPs said "If you let me try, I can get a better deal"

(All on the opposition benches, left-wing media and the EU: "Oh no you can't")

He tried. He got a better deal (as far as the Brexit-supporting MPs were concerned).

The Brexit-supporting MPs said "This is a deal we can live with". The Remain coalition scuttled away to find a new way to prevent it happening.

The rest will go down in the history books.

 

[AlterEgo]

I wouldn't describe our democracy as healthy even slightly under FPTP, but it's totally clear that the government has to own what happens next - it's their policy. That's how it works. Any suggestion to the contrary is crazy. If Brexit causes problems with which people are unhappy, the Conservative party and the government are those accountable. With a large measure of good luck the new Leader of the Opposition will make doing this job their daily mission.

Even you can't complain that we're going to hold the government to account...

Because we live in a civil society, we all own what happens next, part of which of course is holding politicians to account when they don't deliver on promises.

If Brexit causes problems and people become unhappy, that's on all of us. The ideological schism that led to Brexit fell on all of us too.

 

[Starmill]

Because we live in a civil society, we all own what happens next, part of which of course is holding politicians to account when they don't deliver on promises.

If Brexit causes problems and people become unhappy, that's on all of us. The ideological schism that led to Brexit fell on all of us too.

I think this is a work of fiction.

 

[Senex]

“Ever closer union” is still embedded into the preamble of the Treaty of Rome, last I checked.

No thanks.

And all being well the 27 will pursue that ideal and prosper, while we stagnate and then decline, and certainly lose international influence out on the edges of a much more significant and influential body. For some of us the "ever closer union" was one of the key aspects of EU membership.

 

[Peter Kelford]

And all being well the 27 will pursue that ideal and prosper, while we stagnate and then decline, and certainly lose international influence out on the edges of a much more significant and influential body. For some of us the "ever closer union" was one of the key aspects of EU membership.

Duplicate post.

We consign ourselves to regression, and it won't be long before currently less developed countries start taking over us in all development metrics. To start with, the Baltic states are shifting more and more to a Scandinavian society with high development and wealth, Poland, Czechia, Lithuania etc. shortly behind them, the Balkans getting a 'largely developed' status, Asian countries apart from South Korea and Japan (who are already there from our Western eyes) in the developed countries category... then merry England, and very much England alone, regressing education, regressing development, increasing crime, shortening life expectancy, reduced free healthcare, everything privately paid for etc. etc.

 

[Esker-pades]

When you say “we’re going to hold the government to account”, I have to ask, who exactly do you mean?

You do realise that the scale of this victory most likely means a decade plus of Tory rule?

The electorate have just given BoJo a blank check to do precisely what he bloody well wants...

But I’m sure he’s eagerly awaiting your feedback.

So there shouldn't be checks and balances in a democracy? Is that really what you're promoting here?

 

[Esker-pades]

When you really get down to the brass tacks it’s mostly down to emotion and an overwhelming sense that, for all its flaws, I love this country and I want it to retain its status as a self governing democracy.

I guess it’s the same feeling that made one of my ancestors go over the top on the Somme, and cop a bullet in the head.

The same feeling that made my grandfather fly fighter aircraft during WWII at incredible risk to his own life and limb.

It’s a feeling I’d happily pick up a rifle to defend...

Seems ridiculous to write that on an iPhone
in 2019, but it’s that visceral and real for me.

My question probably wasn't specific enough. What does 'democracy', 'self-determination', and 'sovereignty' mean in this context?

 

[Howardh]

Well I'd like to personally thank all Brexit/Tory voters for making me over £11,000 better off overnight thanks to the increase in share values. How very magnanimous of you - making yourselves poorer in order to make the rich richer!!
Jacob, Boris, Francois et all will love you to bits!!

 

[TrafficEng]

Well I'd like to personally thank all Brexit/Tory voters for making me over £11,000 better off overnight thanks to the increase in share values. How very magnanimous of you - making yourselves poorer in order to make the rich richer!!
Jacob, Boris, Francois et all will love you to bits!!

You are welcome.

But what is it that makes you think that you are the only one who has been further enriched, whilst everybody else will be made poorer?

And have you really become £11,000 better off, or is that increase in the paper value of your investment(s) due to winding back some of the loss when people feared the (remote) prospect of Labour winning and taking us back to the 1970's?

 

[yorksrob]

Not really. Opt outs and the veto have also been central principles since the year dot. We didn't fancy Schengen or the Euro, so we opted out. The next big integration thing (perhaps the army?) we could veto.

So in a sense this 'concession' was not simply giving us what we had already, it actually formalised an agreement that the UK wouldn't veto closer integration because we would sit contentedly* to one side, completely aloof from it all.

This really exemplifies one of the 'EU' things that many Leavers don't like. Being 'given' something which was ours already, and told we should be grateful for the excellent deal we are getting. A bit like getting back some of the money we gave them in the first place.

Very often this isn't the EU's fault. It normally happens as a result of the spin the UK Government (especially Blair and Brown) applied to convince people how great the EU really is. That bubble finally popped in 2016.

* For leavers this contentment is an uneasy one. The Government of the day can opt out, but there is nothing stopping a future Government opting us in. See "The Social Chapter". And of course, once in you can never leave. From a Leaver's perspective, Cameron's opt-out was only good so long as Cameron was PM. Due to the lack of trust in UK politics the sentiment was something like 'better off being rid of it all for good'.

I think it would have been a very brave politician who tried to re-adopt the principle of ever closer union, once our opt out of it had been enshrined in treaty.

 

[Howardh]

You are welcome.

But what is it that makes you think that you are the only one who has been further enriched, whilst everybody else will be made poorer?

And have you really become £11,000 better off, or is that increase in the paper value of your investment(s) due to winding back some of the loss when people feared the (remote) prospect of Labour winning and taking us back to the 1970's?

Yes, I can cash it in tomorrow and put it in the bank. What makes you think you will be enriched due to Brexit?
I love the statement on twitter "Brexit is like one of those American religious cults you see on TV....*give me your money and your life and soul will be enriched*".
Yes, r-i-g-h-t.

 

[43066]

My question probably wasn't specific enough. What does 'democracy', 'self-determination', and 'sovereignty' mean in this context?

I’m quite clear in my own mind as to why I think the EU is a sinister, undemocratic, federalist political project which I do not want this country to be a part of.

I’m afraid the time to have this debate was in the run up to the 2016 referendum (leave won that debate!). I see little point in rerunning it now, 3.5 years on.

When will you finally accept the result of the 2016 referendum? Why do you think the Tories have just been returned with a stonking majority?

How many more times does the British public need to make its feelings on Brexit clear before remainers will finally accept it?