• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

The 2024 US presidential election.

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
3,315
I would be surprised if they change the rules. It could backfire if the Democrats win the next election and then decide to stick to them.

To be fair Starmer could change the system here also with his majority, but is unlikely too.
Aren’t most of the rules around presidential elections part of their constitution? In which case changing them requires an amendment. Which requires 2/3rds of both houses of congress, followed by 3/4s of the state legislatures to ratify.
Trump may end up with a majority, but nothing like on that scale.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

AlterEgo

Veteran Member
Joined
30 Dec 2008
Messages
22,585
Location
Rugby
Trump is an isolationist and a nationalist. So other world leaders won’t sue for peace now he’s in charge because, ultimately, they know he won’t lift a finger to stop them doing whatever they want.

Just as Trump was the one who pulled out of Afghanistan, he’ll be the one do pulls all support from Ukraine. Without US weaponry they’re screwed, Russia just pile bodies into the meat grinder until they win.

Apart from Israel, of course. The Republicans will let them carry on their genocide with impunity.
I don’t agree about Ukraine. Trump and Putin will sue for peace and attempt to showboat while doing it. Trump would love that. (It would be a bad deal for Ukraine though)
 

JD2168

Established Member
Joined
11 Jul 2022
Messages
1,208
Location
Sheffield
Shame Biden didn't drop out earlier so they could choose a proper candidate. It was theirs to loose, and they lost.

Very true. It left Kamala Harris 16 weeks to do effectively an 12-18 month job. She also never faced a Primary.

Other issues Harris had was not mentioning much of policies & struggled to distance herself from the Biden administration.
 
Last edited:

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
3,315
He should do. He is at far more risk of losing the next election if he doesn't, than if he does (accepting that he would have to govern as part of a progressive coalition).

I can just see it: Badenoch 30%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 15%, Reform 10%, Greens 8%. Badenoch likely wins under FPTP but the progressives win under a proportional system.
Your faith that the Labour Party are progressives is touching. Although they’ve swung back to high tax and spend, in other areas they are authoritarian and socially conservative. The other thing to note is that they are deeply tribal. Working with other parties is anathema to them.
 

DarloRich

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
30,596
Location
Fenny Stratford
A stable and predictable administration like Biden’s allows belligerents to cause much more upset and havoc. That’s because Putin, Netanyahu, and their ilk are not irrational by nature, but rather strategists who make choices. Putin’s in particular appears to have been well calculated.

If you have a bizarre and unpredictable leader like Trump, the chance of conflict decreases.

Who would you like to provoke? Someone whose responses are predictable and can be mitigated, or someone who might either do nothing or might launch a nuke?
I don't agree -I think Trump is more likely to give them carte blanche to invade by signalling he wont come to the aid of Taiwan if they do.

EDIT - you are assigning the Richard Nixon approach to Vietnam to Trump

I don’t agree about Ukraine. Trump and Putin will sue for peace and attempt to showboat while doing it. Trump would love that. (It would be a bad deal for Ukraine though)
I do agree with this! Trump will agree the dismemberment of Ukraine, the creation of a puppet state and the replacement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy with a client all the while crowing about how wonderful he (Trump) is & how will save the world

Putin will be working out who to invade next! Putin will be laughing his ushanka off.
 
Last edited:

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,870
Location
Taunton or Kent
A stable and predictable administration like Biden’s allows belligerents to cause much more upset and havoc. That’s because Putin, Netanyahu, and their ilk are not irrational by nature, but rather strategists who make choices. Putin’s in particular appears to have been well calculated.

If you have a bizarre and unpredictable leader like Trump, the chance of conflict decreases.

Who would you like to provoke? Someone whose responses are predictable and can be mitigated, or someone who might either do nothing or might launch a nuke?
Yes while Trump didn't start any wars, he oversaw military behaviour that previous leaders would have avoided. The best examples are the two airstrikes he launched on Syrian government forces and the drone strike that killed the top Iranian General at the start of 2020. I wouldn't put it past him trying to assassinate the Iranian Ayatollah if the opportunity arises, especially as the Israeli government would love that.
 

Ianigsy

Established Member
Joined
12 May 2015
Messages
1,211
If this had been anybody other than Trump, it would have been hailed as an amazing political achievement. For a race which was supposedly too close to call, Harris doesn’t look like winning any of the swing states at the moment. I agree with the opinion that a lot of this is on Biden, for trying too hard to go on and for not allowing Harris enough of an opportunity to establish her own identity.

It’s a reversal of the usual position where the VP has the current administration’s record to call on and the challenger is an unknown quantity- Trump lowered taxes and disentangled the US from foreign conflicts last time, so people trusted him to do the same again.
 

DarloRich

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
30,596
Location
Fenny Stratford
It’s a reversal of the usual position where the VP has the current administration’s record to call on and the challenger is an unknown quantity
But she didn't call upon that record. The entire campaign was that Trump was a $hit. That was it. She offered no policy ideas, failed to address the issues that the Trumpians were interested in, showed any understanding of a perceived (?) cost of living crisis or grasped that the people supporting Trump don't care he is a $hit. They don't see it as a character flaw!
 

Purple Train

Established Member
Joined
16 Jul 2022
Messages
1,797
Location
Despond
But she didn't call upon that record. The entire campaign was that Trump was a $hit. That was it. She offered no policy ideas, failed to address the issues that the Trumpians were interested in, showed any understanding of a perceived (?) cost of living crisis or grasped that the people supporting Trump don't care he is a $hit. They don't see it as a character flaw!
The vast majority of Americans know that Trump isn't a good person, they just think he'll make things cheaper. Britain is a nation of Romantics, which is a double-edged sword - Boris got in simply by being a court jester, but equally Trump wouldn't get anywhere near power because of his personality. America isn't. I was discussing this with a friend of mine today and it basically degenerated into finding ever odder election pairings to pit against each other - i.e. a candidate of good character against a variety of film/TV/literature villains - but it probably wouldn't matter how terrible their deeds were if they were promising a better quality of life. It's not necessarily that it's "not seen as a character flaw" (although see my earlier post #1,336 for my opinion on that) - it's just irrelevant.
 

Strathclyder

Established Member
Joined
12 Jun 2013
Messages
3,328
Location
Clydebank
The vast majority of Americans know that Trump isn't a good person, they just think he'll make things cheaper. Britain is a nation of Romantics, which is a double-edged sword - Boris got in simply by being a court jester, but equally Trump wouldn't get anywhere near power because of his personality. America isn't. I was discussing this with a friend of mine today and it basically degenerated into finding ever odder election pairings to pit against each other - i.e. a candidate of good character against a variety of film/TV/literature villains - but it probably wouldn't matter how terrible their deeds were if they were promising a better quality of life. It's not necessarily that it's "not seen as a character flaw" (although see my earlier post #1,336 for my opinion on that) - it's just irrelevant.
Yeah, pretty much this. This is why I'm not at all surprised and it feeds directly into my 'two countries divided by a common language' viewpoint. Long as he spouts empty promises about improving their lot in life/bring costs down, they'll vote for him regardless if he has the personality of a burning dumpster.
 

TheHSRailFan

Member
Joined
16 Jun 2018
Messages
264
To say 24 hours ago right now I was in this seat, at my computer seeing Trump take the lead in several key states made me a bit worried. But as the hour went on before I went to sleep at 4, the result became clear. and I was... not happy...

Waking up to see he had won, I wasn't surprised. But to say how I am worried about the future of this country, Ukraine and the whole of Europe thanks to this result is an understatement. I've seen many friends in the States who are all LGBTQ+ or women afraid of their rights being taken away suddenly worried about their lives really makes me anxious. Alas, I can't do much and can only support them (making them move to safe areas like California or the NE) from across the Atlantic.

The part that worries me is the indirect effects Trump's decisions will cause to this country and Europe since he really is buddies with Putin. It's uncertain but with both my friends in the US and here, we can only look for hope and a light from all this.
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
3,849
Location
Wales
Not only will they not care, they wouldn’t even notice. ”Overseas” tourists account for just 5.8% of Florida’s visitors.
For me, it's more about reducing the chances of encountering a MAGA-type. It's like a cult and the followers are incredibly tedious.
 
Joined
3 May 2023
Messages
269
Location
Too far from an HST...
1730958211843.jpeg
Bernie Sanders statement on the results, seems a pretty scathing attack on the current state of affairs but pretty bang on the money.
[/QUOTE]
"It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic party that has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they're right.

Today, while the very rich are doing phenomenally well, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and we have more income and wealth inequality than ever before. Unbelievably, real, inflation-accounted-for weekly wages for the average American worker are lower than they were 50 years ago.

Today, despite an explosion in technology and worker productivity, many young people will have a worse standard of living than their parents. And many of them worry Artificial Intelligence and robotics will make a bad situation even worse.

Today, despite spending far more per Capita than other countries, we remain the only wealthy nation to not guarentee healthcare to all as a human right and we pay, by far, the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs. We, alone among other countries, cannot guarentee paid family and medical leave.

Today, despite strong opposition from a majority of Americans, we continue to spend billions funding the extremist Netanyahu government's all out war against the Palestinian people which has led to the horrific humanitarian disaster and the starvation of thousands of children.

Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign? Will they understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are facing? Do they have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful Oligarchy which has so much economic and political power? Probably not.

In the coming weeks and months those of us concerned about grassroots democracy and economic justice need to have some serious political discussions.

Stay tuned.
[/QUOTE]

* edited to comply with forum rules
 
Last edited:

chris11256

Member
Joined
27 Dec 2012
Messages
739
As he can’t stand again he doesn’t need to care about poll or approval ratings when his policies tank their economy.

Although it will be interesting to see how it plays out with all the ‘all I know is that gas & groceries were cheaper under trump’ people.
 

SteveM70

Established Member
Joined
11 Jul 2018
Messages
4,558
Other issues Harris had was not mentioning much of policies & struggled to distance herself from the Biden administration.

Having reflected on the result, it does occur to me that a lot of the campaigning from Harris (at least what we saw over here) was negative stuff about Trump’s character, which while obviously repugnant was hardly new news to anyone with a vote and would presumably already be priced in to people’s decisions. I’m not sure that she’ll have changed many voters’ minds in the last few weeks
 

Harpo

Member
Joined
21 Aug 2024
Messages
569
Location
Newport
As he can’t stand again…..
Under the current arrangements. But then Trump has a peculiar relationship with democracy.

However, as a 78 year old with increasingly alarming verbal incontinence, there’s a full presidential term to be completed first.
 

Smidster

Member
Joined
23 Oct 2014
Messages
571
Under the current arrangements. But then Trump has a peculiar relationship with democracy.

However, as a 78 year old with increasingly alarming verbal incontinence, there’s a full presidential term to be completed first.
If I had to guess he won't make it to 2028 - These things can progress quickly and he is very clearly on the decline.

Now that isn't particularly good news in either the short or long term - Short term is just means most of the policy agenda is handed over to the Project 2025 nutters and medium term you end up with President Vance who is just as horrible but potentially competent at enacting it and could then run for two terms of his own.
 

Senex

Established Member
Joined
1 Apr 2014
Messages
2,838
Location
York
As he can’t stand again he doesn’t need to care about poll or approval ratings when his policies tank their economy.
Can't he? Given that he has the presidency, the Senate, and his Supreme Court majority, and looks likely to have a House majority too, doesn't that give him pretty well the powers of an absolute monarch and the ability to change the rules as he sees fit? The only thing that can be sure to stop him in due course is the Grim Reaper.
I wonder if the Founding Fathers ever envisaged a situation where the separation of powers could so totally break down as it now seems to have done.
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
14,164
Location
Isle of Man
I don’t agree about Ukraine. Trump and Putin will sue for peace and attempt to showboat while doing it
We may be saying the same thing from different sides.

I think Trump will pull all support from Ukraine and so the Ukrainians will be forced into choosing to continue the war or settling a peace that’s very much in Russia’s interests. Ands if they continue the war then sheer numbers means Russia would eventually win.
Bernie Sanders statement on the results, seems a pretty scathing attack on the current state of affairs but pretty bang on the money.
Same as with Brexit, poor struggling people use their vote as a protest against “the elites” by *checks notes* voting for the party of Jeff Bezos and Peter Thiel.

Actually, it looks as though this time the Democrat vote protested by staying at home. Trump’s vote hasn’t increased since 2020, but the Dems have lost somewhere between 10m and 15m votes. A chunk of that will be accounted for by increasingly aggressive Republican gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics, but not all of it will. I also find it odd that in several states the people have voted pro-abortion rights and pro-Democrat further down the ticket but then voted for Trump. But the fundamental underlying issue is that Democrat voters stayed at home in the presidential election.
 
Last edited:

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
3,315
Can't he? Given that he has the presidency, the Senate, and his Supreme Court majority, and looks likely to have a House majority too, doesn't that give him pretty well the powers of an absolute monarch and the ability to change the rules as he sees fit? The only thing that can be sure to stop him in due course is the Grim Reaper.
I wonder if the Founding Fathers ever envisaged a situation where the separation of powers could so totally break down as it now seems to have done.
As noted previously, Trump doesn’t have nearly enough of a majority to effect constitutional changes.
Although a majority of the Supreme Court justices are conservative thanks to Trump’s nominations, I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that they’d let him ride roughshod over the rules. They have a position for life, so they’re not beholden to him. They’re usually into fairly narrow readings of the rules, Roe vs. Wade was overturned due to being seen as overstretching an interpretation of the constitution. Even the liberal judges voted to allow Trump to run when they could have found a partisan reason to block it.
 

nw1

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2013
Messages
8,191
Although it will be interesting to see how it plays out with all the ‘all I know is that gas & groceries were cheaper under trump’ people.
A sign of an extreme lack of awareness of world affairs in the sense that they fail to understand the obvious truth that Covid and Putin are responsible for high prices.

We may be saying the same thing from different sides.

I think Trump will pull all support from Ukraine and so the Ukrainians will be forced into choosing to continue the war or settling a peace that’s very much in Russia’s interests. Ands if they continue the war then sheer numbers means Russia would eventually win.

Same as with Brexit, poor struggling people use their vote as a protest against “the elites” by *checks notes* voting for the party of Jeff Bezos and Peter Thiel.
Didn't think Bezos was particularly political and I don't think he endorsed either candidate, but what a stomach-churning, vomit-inducing piece of sycophancy this is from him:

“Big congratulations to our 45th and now 47th President on an extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory,” Bezos wrote on X Wednesday morning. “No nation has bigger opportunities. Wishing @realDonaldTrump all success in leading and uniting the America we all love.”

(Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...s-donald-trump-election-results-b2642660.html)

One for Private Eye's OBN, surely?

It's the big business people who are the real "out of touch elite", not the rock and pop stars, actors, and moderate politicians the populist right constantly like having a go at. If people had a go at CEOs of multinationals and right-wing politicians - the real elite - half as much as they had a go at rock and pop stars, actors, and centrist or centre-left politicians, the world might start becoming a better place.
 
Last edited:

Yew

Established Member
Joined
12 Mar 2011
Messages
6,697
Location
UK
he has really expanded support among Hispanics and other groups though. It's a really intriguing appeal. Maybe the economy is part of the explanation as well.
Whilst the idea that he is not an "establishment figure" is obviously wrong, I do wonder if he is less in the pocket of corporate lobbysits, that lobby for their profits to be put ahead of little concerns like the cost of living.
 

nw1

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2013
Messages
8,191
If I had to guess he won't make it to 2028 - These things can progress quickly and he is very clearly on the decline.

Now that isn't particularly good news in either the short or long term - Short term is just means most of the policy agenda is handed over to the Project 2025 nutters and medium term you end up with President Vance who is just as horrible but potentially competent at enacting it and could then run for two terms of his own.

The only thing about Vance is he doesn't have the same cult of personality and god-like worship. He's just an anonymous hardline right-winger. That might suggest he would be less likely to win.
 

BingMan

Member
Joined
8 Feb 2019
Messages
260
. Also, try walking in the American countryside away from designated national parks, etc. A hell of a lot more difficult than it is in the UK or other European countries).
I took an American visitor for a walk in the Peak District on public rights of way some of which go through farmyards.
"My God" he said " if you tried this in the US you would get shot"
 

chris11256

Member
Joined
27 Dec 2012
Messages
739
As others have said, he doesn't have anywhere near the numbers needed for a constitutional amendment to allow him to serve beyond 2028. It needs 2/3's majority in congress as well as being passed by 38 out of 50 states.
 

gg1

Established Member
Joined
2 Jun 2011
Messages
2,136
Location
Birmingham
As others have said, he doesn't have anywhere near the numbers needed for a constitutional amendment to allow him to serve beyond 2028. It needs 2/3's majority in congress as well as being passed by 38 out of 50 states.
Thankfully exactly the same would be needed to allow non US born candidates to stand, so no prospect of a President Musk (if he was eligible to stand I could see that being a very real possibility).
 

BingMan

Member
Joined
8 Feb 2019
Messages
260
Can't he? Given that he has the presidency, the Senate, and his Supreme Court majority, and looks likely to have a House majority too, doesn't that give him pretty well the powers of an absolute monarch and the ability to change the rules as he sees fit? The only thing that can be sure to stop him in due course is the Grim Reaper.
I wonder if the Founding Fathers ever envisaged a situation where the separation of powers could so totally break down as it now seems to have done.
As someone has already pointed out he doesn't have the power to make changes to the constitution unilaterally.
It needs a 2/3 majority of both houses to enact changes to the constitution
 

AlterEgo

Veteran Member
Joined
30 Dec 2008
Messages
22,585
Location
Rugby
Thankfully exactly the same would be needed to allow non US born candidates to stand, so no prospect of a President Musk (if he was eligible to stand I could see that being a very real possibility).
Musk would not win an election because he's quite obviously neurodivergent. Very toxic trait in top level politics I'm sorry to say.
 

Top