The 2024 US presidential election.

[brad465]

The amount of scaremongering on here is impressive!

I did a personal brain dump of everything he's said he'll do or has been associated with that could happen in his 2nd term. Most of it will either hit a brick wall or be watered down, while on foreign policy there are some mitigating factors that will limit the scope of that.

Thankfully exactly the same would be needed to allow non US born candidates to stand, so no prospect of a President Musk (if he was eligible to stand I could see that being a very real possibility).

Also worth remembering that the only ones who are closely aligned enough to Musk to enact such a change have a big enough ego that they wouldn't allow this, because they'd want the job for themselves.

 

[DarloRich]

The amount of scaremongering on here is impressive!

Agreed - however it is quite plausible to see bodies like NATO being less cohesive as a Trumpian USA withdraws from global engagement allowing fellow autocrats to develop "spheres of influence". Do you think Putin will stop at Ukraine once Trump hands it over to him?

I am also concerned about the untrammelled power Trump will yield ( he will control all of the branches of the US government) and ability his/thier to reduce or limit freedoms and liberties people in America have a right to expect.

The first concerns me because the western liberal alliance is based on the shield of NATO and the provisions of article 5 which essentially means America will come to our ( European and other allies) aid. Will they under Trump?

The second concerns me because the USA is supposed to be the land of the free and a shining example of democratic freedoms. If rights are rolled back there they will be rolled back here.

Personally, not to be concerned about a Trump presidency is naïve at best!

 

[InkyScrolls]

Musk would not win an election because he's quite obviously neurodivergent. Very toxic trait in top level politics I'm sorry to say.

I find that quite offensive! Neurodivergency can be a real strength (I have certainly found it to be so) and that could certainly hold true in politics as well.

 

[ainsworth74]

If I had to guess he won't make it to 2028 - These things can progress quickly and he is very clearly on the decline.

I reckon that three things are likely to happen:

1) Vance and supporters knife Trump very early into his term allowing Vance to serve basically the full term and then run for re-election (as I outlined here).

2) Vance and supporters bide their time and knife him later in Trumps term (once two years have passed, if someone takes over it doesn't count as one of their terms for the two term limit).

3) Trump dies or becomes so clearly unwell that there's no choice but to use the 25th Amendment without any scheme at all being the driving force.

I suppose technically there is a fourth option which is Trump serves the full term and then rides off into the sunset in 2028. But that seems unlikely.

I find that quite offensive! Neurodivergency can be a real strength (I have certainly found it to be so) and that could certainly hold true in politics as well.

I'm fairly certain that @AlterEgo isn't advocating in favour of neurodivergent people being excluded from top level politics. Rather the opposite in fact, but is making the point that sadly for a lot of the electorate it is a disqualification even though it shouldn't be just because someone is.

 

[AlterEgo]

I find that quite offensive! Neurodivergency can be a real strength (I have certainly found it to be so) and that could certainly hold true in politics as well.

I'm afraid it isn't a vote winner. That's nothing against neurodivergent people, but rather recognising that the further you move from the:

- Male
- White
- Neurotypical
- Cis
- Hetero
- Middle Class

...privileges the more difficult you will find it to appeal to a wide section of the voter base.

Politics is about consensus, empathy, human understanding. ND people will find that much harder to do, as a cohort.

 

[alex397]

I find that quite offensive! Neurodivergency can be a real strength (I have certainly found it to be so) and that could certainly hold true in politics as well.

Agreed. It’s sad that many only see neurodivergency as a negative trait.
It’s unfortunate that Musk is the person he is, otherwise he would be an excellent example to the world of the positivity that it brings. Sadly he is a buffoon.

EDIT: I may have misread the post from AlterEgo that the quote above refers to. Apologies if so.

 

[Krokodil]

A sign of an extreme lack of awareness of world affairs

This is the US we're talking about. A sizeable number of people haven't left their own state, let alone travelled internationally. Working hours are also incredibly long (a factor cited in why opinion polling wasn't catching Trump voters), so many people (particularly in some sectors) haven't got the time to be keeping up on current affairs.

The only thing about Vance is he doesn't have the same cult of personality and god-like worship. He's just an anonymous hardline right-winger. That might suggest he would be less likely to win.

He could still do a lot of damage in the interregnum if Trump loses the plot.

 

[DarloRich]

Musk would not win an election because he's quite obviously neurodivergent. Very toxic trait in top level politics I'm sorry to say.

would his neurodivergent status or his innate £ickishness be more of a problem

 

[InkyScrolls]

I'm afraid it isn't a vote winner. That's nothing against neurodivergent people, but rather recognising that the further you move from the:

- Male
- White
- Neurotypical
- Cis
- Hetero
- Middle Class

...privileges the more difficult you will find it to appeal to a wide section of the voter base.

Politics is about consensus, empathy, human understanding. ND people will find that much harder to do, as a cohort.

Then I do apologise! I misread your post entirely (oh the irony!).

 

[ainsworth74]

This is the US we're talking about. A sizeable number of people haven't left their own state, let alone travelled internationally. Working hours are also incredibly long (a factor cited in why opinion polling wasn't catching Trump voters), so many people (particularly in some sectors) haven't got the time to be keeping up on current affairs.

Yes I think sometimes people forget that the US is a continental sized country and many of the states within are as large as nation states. California for example has a population larger than say Poland, Australia or Ukraine and would be the fifth largest economy in the world. Florida has a population larger than the Netherlands, Chile or Romanian and would be the fifteenth largest economy in the world.

The is Big with a capital 'B'. It's hardly surprising that many people haven't travelled internationally, nor indeed have ever left their state, when you looking at a nation the size of the US.

It therefore really shouldn't be at all surprising that they just don't care all that much about what people think about the US internationally. Why would they when their country is as large as it is and as physically isolated from the world as it is?

Heck, even here in the UK our General Elections never really feature foreign policy that much. It's far more about domestic matters and concerns and we have none of the advantages that the US.

 

[Krokodil]

would his neurodivergent status or his innate £ickishness be more of a problem

The latter would probably be considered a bonus by some voters.

The is Big with a capital 'B'. It's hardly surprising that many people haven't travelled internationally, nor indeed have ever left their state, when you looking at a nation the size of the US.

The size is often used as an excuse but I'm not so sure. Australia just as big as the contiguous US, and is more remote from its neighbours, yet Australians are more likely to have travelled. Canada is even bigger, yet Canadians are highly likely to have travelled abroad. Access to paid leave clearly accounts for something - if you only get ten days, aren’t really allowed to use more than a week in one go, and have to keep some aside in case of sickness then long-haul travel isn't really practicals, but there also seems to be a parochial mindset in many quarters. "Why would I want to travel anywhere? I can get everything here". There's a lack of curiosity about the outside world. The education system in many states also feeds into this, pushing a jingoistic curriculum. This is despite us having more information about the world at our fingertips than any library ever held.

 

[AlterEgo]

The latter would probably be considered a bonus by some voters.


The size is often used as an excuse but I'm not so sure. Australia just as big as the contiguous US, and is more remote from its neighbours, yet Australians are more likely to have travelled. Canada is even bigger, yet Canadians are highly likely to have travelled abroad. Access to paid leave clearly accounts for something - if you only get ten days, aren’t really allowed to use more than a week in one go, and have to keep some aside in case of sickness then long-haul travel isn't really practicals, but there also seems to be a parochial mindset in many quarters. "Why would I want to travel anywhere? I can get everything here". There's a lack of curiosity about the outside world. The education system in many states also feeds into this, pushing a jingoistic curriculum. This is despite us having more information about the world at our fingertips than any library ever held.

Neither of those countries has the cultural diversity or density of the United States though. There’s vastly more to do in the USA and never leave than in Canada or Australia.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Could Trump get the constitution changed to allow a third term, no, getting the constitution changed, ss others have stated is virtually impossible.
Could Trump get an interpretation of the constitution from the Supreme Court to allow him a third term, possibly, but only if the wording was such to leave room for interpretation.

 

[SteveM70]

If Trump can't realistically get it changed to allow him a third term (which even he as a then-82-year-old might see as unfeasible), will he instead opt to try and create a dynasty? Who is the next Trump off the rank? Ivanka or Don Jr?

 

[WelshBluebird]

Why would Trump need to even get the law changed considering he refused to accept the 2020 election results and tried to "find votes" to show he won? He, his team and his supporters literally tried to stop the legitimate election results from being certified and taking effect. After that anything is possible.

 

[AlterEgo]

Why wouks Trump need to even get the law changed considering he refused to accept the 2020 election results and tried to "find votes" to show he won?

Was that successful? Did he become the president in 2020?

 

[WelshBluebird]

Was that successful? Did he become the president in 2020?

He now has 4 more years to make changes to allow him to do that though. Stuffing various bodies with his supporters etc. We've already seen it with the recent supreme court ruling about being immune from all sorts of things.

 

[AlterEgo]

He now has 4 more years to make changes to allow him to do that though. We've already seen it with the recent supreme court ruling about being immune from all sorts of things.

He doesn’t have the majority required to change the constitution though. It’s not going to happen.

 

[WelshBluebird]

He doesn’t have the majority required to change the constitution though. It’s not going to happen.

He doesn't have to though. That's my point. Given the support he has, and what he tried last time, he could just stuff enough of his supporters into various positions of power so he can just ignore the law. Again the supreme court thinks he would be immune from prosecution for all sorts of things so whose going to stop him?

In any case this argument is bonkers. Someone who literally did try to ignore the election results and who was literally trying to magic up fake votes for him and who was literally trying to manipulate electoral colleage votes in his favour should not be allowed in office again full stop.

 

[Krokodil]

He doesn’t have the majority required to change the constitution though. It’s not going to happen.

You speak as if the US Constitution is completely unbreakable. It is only as binding as people believe it to be. If he's filled the military top brass and other agencies with Yes-men, is anyone going to stop him and his mob if he decided to use force to achieve his aims?

 

[Bikeman78]

Collapsed? No. It was split. The combined tory plus reform vote is higher than the labour vote.
There was no collapse of the right. We have an incredible situation where the number of votes for labour went down, and the outcome was a massive majority. And they seem hell bent on using that majority to upset almost everyone except die hard followers.
For the record. I am glad the tories got an electoral kicking. But you must see that the vote on the right, held up.

So Farage wiped out the Tories. That is quite amusing. The next election could be interesting.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Tin foil hat on.

Of course there is the issue if the interaction of guests 22nd amendment, term limits and the 12th amendment, eligibility.

Some have argued that a 2 term president could still stand as vice president and then take over the presidency if the elected president stood down.

 

[Ianigsy]

Something else which occurs to me- as serving President in 2026, Trump will also preside over the 250th anniversary of independence. That will no doubt appeal to his vanity and ego!

 

[Gloster]

I don’t see Trump or Vance being able to change the Constitution in order to allow third terms, but I do see a lot of fiddling of the voting rules by states to discourage likely Democratic-voting groups. There will be no hindrance to this from Washington and probably a lot of encouragement from the top: if you can’t get it by honest means, then get it by… (I know that both parties have done this sort of things for years, but this time it will be blatant to an unprecedented extent.)

 

[trainswitheddy]

My concern is man made climate change. We have Trump referring to it as some big scam meanwhile global temperatures continue to increase and floods get closer to where I live year on year. Genuinely baffled that anyone on this thread thinks another Trump presidency can be anything good.

 

[ainsworth74]

Could Trump get the constitution changed to allow a third term, no, getting the constitution changed, ss others have stated is virtually impossible.
Could Trump get an interpretation of the constitution from the Supreme Court to allow him a third term, possibly, but only if the wording was such to leave room for interpretation.

The 22nd Amendment is fairly boilerplate I'd have said:

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

I suppose you might wiggle around "elected" but we'd have to go full fascist dictatorship (which I'm not ruling out I suppose but even today feels unlikely) I think for an interpretation that says that Trump can have a third term by appointment or something rather than election.

 

[nlogax]

My concern is man made climate change. We have Trump referring to it as some big scam meanwhile global temperatures continue to increase and floods get closer to where I live year on year. Genuinely baffled that anyone on this thread thinks another Trump presidency can be anything good.

This election is another timely reminder to those of us outside of the US that global opinions about its democratic process and outcome have zero impact. The country will do its own thing as it has always done and once climate change starts to affect the US economy only then real action will start. By them avoidance will be impossible so such actions will be inevitably centered on large geoengineering projects.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

The 22nd Amendment is fairly boilerplate I'd have said:



I suppose you might wiggle around "elected" but we'd have to go full fascist dictatorship (which I'm not ruling out I suppose but even today feels unlikely) I think for an interpretation that says that Trump can have a third term by appointment or something rather than election.

I agree that the 22nd amendment is unlikely to give room for interpretation but my tin foil hat earlier post about interaction with the 12th amendment is where, if I was trying to get out of the term limit, I would look.

All that said I am pretty sure he can't be President after his second term finishes.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

This election is another timely reminder to those of us outside of the US that global opinions about its democratic process and outcome have zero impact. The country will do its own thing as it has always done and once climate change starts to affect the US economy only then real action will start. By them avoidance will be impossible so such actions will be inevitably centered on large geoengineering projects.

I am afraid I agree with you and you are correct.

 

[Krokodil]

I don't think that even the Democrats would have been prepared to do nearly enough to wean the US from fossil fuels.