The Batley & Spen by-election

[Busaholic]

He’s a classic demagogue. Incidentally also the only politician to have *enhanced* their reputation by being on Twitter. Make of that what you will.

He’s a classic demagogue. Incidentally also the only politician to have *enhanced* their reputation by being on Twitter. Make of that what you will.

It should never be forgotten that Oswald Mosley's background was in the Labour party, and he positioned himself as a National Socialist at a time when the ineffective Ramsay MacDonald was Labour leader (and Prime Minister.) Comparisons may be odious, but so is Galloway. I lived very close to Galloway's London home when he was a Labour MP with a Scottish constituency. As Neil Kinnock said of Ken Livingstone, 'he's loved by everyone who's never met him!'

 

[317 forever]

I have seen that it will be held on July 1st.
Batley and Spen by-election to be held on 1 July - BBC News

The Batley and Spen by-election will be held on 1 July, it has been confirmed.
It was triggered after the previous MP Tracy Brabin had to stand down when she was elected as West Yorkshire's mayor.
Labour has selected Kim Leadbeater, sister of Jo Cox, who represented the seat before her murder by a right-wing extremist, as the party's candidate.
The Conservatives have selected Ryan Stephenson, a Leeds councillor, as their candidate.
Ms Brabin held Batley and Spen for Labour with a reduced majority in the general election of 2019 - down to 3,525 from 8,961 in 2017.
The Conservative Party's candidate came second.
The Yorkshire Party, which came third in the West Yorkshire mayoral contest, has confirmed its candidate in the by-election will be Corey Robinson, who is a senior medical research engineer.

 

[WesternLancer]

I will be voting in this election but I am in a voting dilemma. I am very annoyed that Labour have gone for a blatant sympathy vote with Jo Cox's Sister as the candidate, but on the other hand I don't want Starmer to be kicked out for Corbyn Mk2, that's not what the country needs in terms of opposition.

I suspect that if Labour loose it will certainly be used by those on the left to attack Starmer, weaken his position within the Labour Party, to achieve an objective of replacing him with indeed a 'Corbyn Mk2' - which I guess is certainly food for thought in terms of casting your vote when you live in the area and have a vote to cast...

 

[brad465]

I suspect that if Labour loose it will certainly be used by those on the left to attack Starmer, weaken his position within the Labour Party, to achieve an objective of replacing him with indeed a 'Corbyn Mk2' - which I guess is certainly food for thought in terms of casting your vote when you live in the area and have a vote to cast...

A few months ago and that might have been the case, but since the local elections their choice of replacement seems to have become Andy Burnham (even though he isn't an MP currently), which is odd given he's more aligned to Blair than Corbyn, but nonetheless is the current bookies' favourite to be next Labour Leader.

 

[WesternLancer]

A few months ago and that might have been the case, but since the local elections their choice of replacement seems to have become Andy Burnham (even though he isn't an MP currently), which is odd given he's more aligned to Blair than Corbyn, but nonetheless is the current bookies' favourite to be next Labour Leader.

Interesting, thanks. IIRC Andy B was the (or a) 'Blairite' candidate in the 2015 LP leadership race, as you suggest (Liz Kendall I think being the 'ultra Blairite' maybe). I very much doubt the Campaign Group / Momentum / CLPD factions would back Andy B - though the broader membership might now do so I guess. Been a lot of water under the bridge since 20015 in the LP of course. But as you say, he's not an MP at the moment so this isn't going to happen in the timeframe of the fallout if Batley and Spen was lost by Labour.

 

[37424]

Interesting, thanks. IIRC Andy B was the (or a) 'Blairite' candidate in the 2015 LP leadership race, as you suggest (Liz Kendall I think being the 'ultra Blairite' maybe). I very much doubt the Campaign Group / Momentum / CLPD factions would back Andy B - though the broader membership might now do so I guess. Been a lot of water under the bridge since 20015 in the LP of course. But as you say, he's not an MP at the moment so this isn't going to happen in the timeframe of the fallout if Batley and Spen was lost by Labour.

While politically Burnham might be closer to my views than the likes of momentum I'm not a fan of him that's for sure and would prefer Starmer. On balance I have decided to vote Labour which will be the first time since 2010.

 

[mpthomson]

For an area that has recently voted in a Labour mayor, by a strong margin, what makes people think that will turn on it’s head in the by election?

Because Brabin's majority in B&S was only 3.5k and in an area where 60% voted for Brexit Labour have parachuted in a candidate who only joined the party a month ago and is a self-confessed Remainer. The West Yorkshire area covers a good number of very safe Labour constituencies, but Batley and Spen can't be described as that.

At some point Labour are at least going to have to pretend to try to understand the demographics and views of their northern constituencies.

If Labour hold this, and I think it's probably 50/50 whether that happens, I expect it will be with a much reduced majority.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Because Brabin's majority in B&S was only 3.5k and in an area where 60% voted for Brexit Labour have parachuted in a candidate who only joined the party a month ago and is a self-confessed Remainer. The West Yorkshire area covers a good number of very safe Labour constituencies, but Batley and Spen can't be described as that.

At some point Labour are at least going to have to pretend to try to understand the demographics and views of their northern constituencies.

If Labour hold this, and I think it's probably 50/50 whether that happens, I expect it will be with a much reduced majority.

I wouldn't say that "being a self-confessed remainer" is a reason not to vote for a candidate... however as alluded to in the Lib Dem thread, the pig-headed refusal to accept the result would be. I'm a Batley resident but currently house-sitting in Huddersfield so haven't seen any leaflets from any of the candidates, but if Leadbitter has anything along the lines of "I want to undo Brexit" in her publicity then she won't get a vote from me, and I say this as someone who voted remain in 2016. I lf that's the case it'll be the Yorkshire Party as my "protest vote", seeing as the Lib Dems have shown their true colours over the last half-decade or more.

 

[Typhoon]

Because Brabin's majority in B&S was only 3.5k and in an area where 60% voted for Brexit Labour have parachuted in a candidate who only joined the party a month ago and is a self-confessed Remainer. The West Yorkshire area covers a good number of very safe Labour constituencies, but Batley and Spen can't be described as that.

At some point Labour are at least going to have to pretend to try to understand the demographics and views of their northern constituencies.

If Labour hold this, and I think it's probably 50/50 whether that happens, I expect it will be with a much reduced majority.

"candidate who only rejoined the party a month ago."

According to both https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ate-batley-and-spen-byelection-kim-leadbeater and https://labourlist.org/2021/05/jo-c...ted-by-labour-to-contest-batley-and-spen/?amp

Allies pointed out that she had been a Labour member before the murder of her sister, but took a step back from party politics afterwards and when taking on her role at the Jo Cox Foundation.

which seems fair enough if she did not want the Foundation associated with a political party.

As regards her suitability for the role, at least she comes from the constituency, the other short listed candidates didn't.

 

[birchesgreen]

and is a self-confessed Remainer.

You won and we left, get over it.

 

[Typhoon]

You won and we left, get over it.

Not only that, but Kim Leadbeater has:

"I had lots of family and friends who voted Leave, and I had lots of family and friends who voted Remain, which I think really reflected where the country was.

"And indeed that's what the statistics proved in the end," she told the Yorkshire Post.

"For me, I fell just on the side of Remain because I was worried about the economic fallout from Brexit.

"But ultimately, it was a tough decision, and I respect however anybody voted in the referendum, that was their choice.

"And what you can't do is give people a choice, and then say they got it wrong or take it away from them, we have to move forward now.

(my emphasis)

From https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...-spen-byelection-brexit-remain-kim-leadbeater

Its a politicians answer if ever I have seen one, but she has given the thin ice a very wide berth!

 

[WesternLancer]

Not only that, but Kim Leadbeater has:
(my emphasis)

From https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...-spen-byelection-brexit-remain-kim-leadbeater

Its a politicians answer if ever I have seen one, but she has given the thin ice a very wide berth!

There's surely no way Labour are going to re-open the Brexit issue IMHO. Surely anyone flagging up what she had to say on it back in 2016 is only seeking to drive a wedge in for the benefit of their own political agenda / the candidate they support (who just happens to claim to have been supporting the UK leaving the EU since 1974 .../ sitting on the fence and not saying anything about anything ever...etc ect).

Obv it is legit to ask political candidates questions, but sometimes you have to ask yourself 'why is that person asking that question?'....

 

[Typhoon]

There's surely no way Labour are going to re-open the Brexit issue IMHO. Surely anyone flagging up what she had to say on it back in 2016 is only seeking to drive a wedge in for the benefit of their own political agenda / the candidate they support (who just happens to claim to have been supporting the UK leaving the EU since 1974 .../ sitting on the fence and not saying anything about anything ever...etc ect).

Obv it is legit to ask political candidates questions, but sometimes you have to ask yourself 'why is that person asking that question?'....

To me her answer can be summarised as 'it came down narrowly on one side, I was on the other. Time to move on'. As far as I know the Labour line is much the same but it is not beyond papers like the Express to make inferences or to exaggerate - for instance a headline of 'Senior Labour MP speaks out ...' would probably be Richard Burgon.

 

[WesternLancer]

To me her answer can be summarised as 'it came down narrowly on one side, I was on the other. Time to move on'. As far as I know the Labour line is much the same but it is not beyond papers like the Express to make inferences or to exaggerate - for instance a headline of 'Senior Labour MP speaks out ...' would probably be Richard Burgon.

I think you make a good analysis there!

 

[61653 HTAFC]

There's surely no way Labour are going to re-open the Brexit issue IMHO. Surely anyone flagging up what she had to say on it back in 2016 is only seeking to drive a wedge in for the benefit of their own political agenda / the candidate they support (who just happens to claim to have been supporting the UK leaving the EU since 1974 .../ sitting on the fence and not saying anything about anything ever...etc ect).

Obv it is legit to ask political candidates questions, but sometimes you have to ask yourself 'why is that person asking that question?'....

Funnily enough, there was a minor scandal in the mayoral campaign with a story about Labour giving out cakes and tea as an "incentive" to voters (something which is against election rules). But the reality was that a local Labour group had laid on tea and cakes as a "thank-you" to canvassers- which is not remotely the same (and is allowed under the rules).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It's slightly better for Labour. At the local council elections, the Conservatives just beat Labour (across the borough as a whole the Conservatives won by 7-8%), and at the last parliamentary elections Labour won Batley and Spen by 7% but won by 1% across the borough as a whole (Dewsbury, Huddersfield, and Colne Valley being included in that total).

When looking at the results in 2019, don't forget to include Brexit party votes - almost all of which would probably have gone to the Tories if the Brexit party weren't standing. In Batley and Spen a candidate standing on a platform that was strongly Brexit got 12% of the vote in 2019 (compared to the Brexit Party proper getting between 2 and 4% in the constituencies you mentioned). You may want to factor that into your estimates.

 

[KashmireHawker]

Some of my Labour colleagues from Wolves, did a Doorknocking session or two on Saturday and all have confirmed to me, that things are extremely tight.

One told me that “This definitely isn’t Hartlepool, but there’s something worse about maybe winning.”

Make of it what you will!

 

[37424]

I had a Labour Party activist turn up at my door on Saturday morning, I haven't had that for years they are clearly worried, we had a good conversation and I was fairly robust in pointing out my issues with the Labour party. In the end I said I will think about voting Labour.

 

[Typhoon]

I had a Labour Party activist turn up at my door on Saturday morning, I haven't had that for years they are clearly worried, we had a good conversation and I was fairly robust in pointing out my issues with the Labour party. In the end I said I will think about voting Labour.

That is probably what has been missing. Not taken for granted, not dictated to, a two way conversation. I hope they can learn.

 

[Iskra]

Quite a long list of candidates, from some niche party's:

The poll will be contested by 16 candidates (listed alphabetically by surname):

• Paul Bickerdike - Christian Peoples Alliance
• Mike Davies - Alliance For Green Socialism
• Jayda Fransen - Independent
• George Galloway - Workers Party
• Tom Gordon - Liberal Democrats
• Thérèse Hirst - English Democrats
• Howling Laud Hope - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• Susan Laird - Heritage Party
• Kim Leadbeater - Labour Party
• Oliver Purser - Social Democratic Party
• Corey Robinson - Yorkshire Party
• Andrew Smith - Rejoin EU
• Ryan Stephenson - Conservative Party
• Jack Thomson - UK Independence Party
• Jonathan Tilt - Freedom Alliance
• Anne Marie Waters - The For Britain Movement

Source https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57429165

 

[brad465]

Batley and Spen Constituents seem to have had elections left, right and centre since 2015 and I wouldn't be surprised if they've had more votes than anyone. From memory they've had (ignoring local elections pre this year): 2015 GE, 2016 EU Ref, 2016 by-election, 2017 GE, 2019 EU Parliament, 2019 GE, 2021 locals and now another by-election, which would mean for many they've had 2 more votes than elsewhere, or one more than other areas with by-elections.

 

[Gloster]

It looks like the right is even more split than the left this time, although some of the parties seem to wander about the political spectrum.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Galloway has plastered his face all over Batley, no doubt hoping that his work with the ironically named Respect Coalition will gain support from the Muslim community. However almost everyone in town I've spoken to (from a multitude of backgrounds) thinks he's a joke who's only in it for himself. We Yorkshire folk haven't forgotten what a disaster he was in Bradford. I really hope he gets absolutely humiliated, and laughed out of town.

 

[WesternLancer]

That is probably what has been missing. Not taken for granted, not dictated to, a two way conversation. I hope they can learn.

To be fair this is usual for by-elections, it's one election in one place so all the efforts can be concentrated in that location. In most constituencies there are simply not the "activists" and I use the term loosely to have any remote chance of even getting a leaflet to every house, let along knock on any significant percentage of the number of doors in the area (I would be surprised if most parties, of whatever colour') had as many as 100 people prepared (even before covid) to cold call their areas on a regular basis - and a typical constituency has 60,000 voters.

The statistical probability of being spoken to, even if they do happen to knock, is very small.

And I know form cold calling work that even when people are in at home, they often do not hear you knock, or do not answer their door as in the back garden, on the phone etc etc.

I had a Labour Party activist turn up at my door on Saturday morning, I haven't had that for years they are clearly worried, we had a good conversation and I was fairly robust in pointing out my issues with the Labour party. In the end I said I will think about voting Labour.

PS - apols I've posted these two messages I was replying to in the wrong order...

 

[37424]

To be fair this is usual for by-elections, it's one election in one place so all the efforts can be concentrated in that location. In most constituencies there are simply not the "activists" and I use the term loosely to have any remote chance of even getting a leaflet to every house, let along knock on any significant percentage of the number of doors in the area (I would be surprised if most parties, of whatever colour') had as many as 100 people prepared (even before covid) to cold call their areas on a regular basis - and a typical constituency has 60,000 voters.

The statistical probability of being spoken to, even if they do happen to knock, is very small.

And I know form cold calling work that even when people are in at home, they often do not hear you knock, or do not answer their door as in the back garden, on the phone etc etc.



PS - apols I've posted these two messages I was replying to in the wrong order...

Well I had another one turn up a few days ago this time from the SDP, What? exactly, apparently a sort of centre left slightly pro Brexit party, we had a long discussion I might actually vote for them, their logo seems very much like the old SDP logo as well.

I'm really wanting a Tory to turn up although I'm not holding my breath on that one so I can give them a hard time over Northern Ireland, in that they signed an agreement and then try to blame the EU because they then decide to implement the agreement in a way the government didn't expect, but then they were so desperate for Brexit they didn't really care about the issues of NI/Ireland.

 

[WesternLancer]

Well I had another one turn up a few days ago this time from the SDP, What? exactly, apparently a sort of centre left slightly pro Brexit party, we had a long discussion I might actually vote for them, their logo seems very much like the old SDP logo as well.

I'm really wanting a Tory to turn up although I'm not holding my breath on that one so I can give them a hard time over Northern Ireland, in that they signed an agreement and then try to blame the EU because they then decide to implement the agreement in a way the government didn't expect, but then they were so desperate for Brexit they didn't really care about the issues of NI/Ireland.

Sounds like you live on a popular street if even the small / fringe (?) parties are knocking on your door!

You make V good point about NI

 

[brad465]

Survation have released this opinion poll for the by-election from the 09-17 June, with changes from the 2019 GE:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1406004486313844745

Batley & Spen, constituency voting intention: CON: 47% (+11) LAB: 41% (-2) WPGB: 6% (+6) LDEM: 3% (-2) No Local Ind Grp (-12) and Brex (-3) as prev. via
@Survation, 09 - 17 Jun Chgs. w/ GE2019

At the moment not looking good for Labour, with Galloway seeming to play a part in that, on top of the expected coalescing of right wing votes into the Tory candidate. However the broad date range of this poll does not entirely include the delay to "Freedom day" becoming reality, nor does it include the result of Chesham and Amersham confirming the Tories losing that seat, so it's hard to tell what impact that might have unless another poll is released in due course.

I also noticed Anas Sarwar had come down from Scotland to help campaign with Jo Cox's sister recently.

 

[AlterEgo]

I’m not sure all, or even many of Galloway’s votes are defectors from Labour. He’s a crank and a charlatan who energises people who don’t normally vote.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I’m not sure all, or even many of Galloway’s votes are defectors from Labour. He’s a crank and a charlatan who energises people who don’t normally vote.

A rumour I've heard going around is that each morning a member of Galloway's team has to go out and remove any casual graffiti (moustaches, eyepatches, arrows through the head, etc.) from the posters which emblazon nearly every set of hoardings and railings in town. I really hope it's true!

 

[brad465]

I’m not sure all, or even many of Galloway’s votes are defectors from Labour. He’s a crank and a charlatan who energises people who don’t normally vote.

It's possible his projection is an overestimate; Thelma Walker (Northern Independence party leader but still independent at this point) was polling around 6% in the build-up to the Hartlepool by-election, but ended up with just 0.8% in the actual result.