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The Batley & Spen by-election

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37424

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Well Labour seem to be working hard, now had 2 Labour supporters knock on my door trying to get my vote, not much from the Tories so far, but then I am in a Tory area maybe the Tory vote is being taken for granted?

I'm not convinced that poll is right I still think Labour may keep the seat but it will be close.

Galloway is just a waste of space and should go away and find something more useful to do, similarly Laurence Fox although at least he's not standing here.
 
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brad465

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Well Labour seem to be working hard, now had 2 Labour supporters knock on my door trying to get my vote, not much from the Tories so far, but then I am in a Tory area maybe the Tory vote is being taken for granted?

I'm not convinced that poll is right I still think Labour may keep the seat but it will be close.

Galloway is just a waste of space and should go away and find something more useful to do, similarly Laurence Fox although at least he's not standing here.
You would think after the Tory loss this week they might try and campaign harder in that Tory area, in case the result makes them question whether to vote for them or vote at all.

As for Laurence Fox he was boasting that not standing in that seat will help the Tories take it. Given his poor standing in the Mayoral election I'm not sure it would make a difference, whatever the result.
 

LUYMun

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As for Laurence Fox he was boasting that not standing in that seat will help the Tories take it. Given his poor standing in the Mayoral election I'm not sure it would make a difference, whatever the result.
I'm sure a YouTuber or some other internet sensationalist would also stand for election, with a focus to beat Fox on polling day.
 
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SuperNova

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Survation have released this opinion poll for the by-election from the 09-17 June, with changes from the 2019 GE:




View attachment 98423

At the moment not looking good for Labour, with Galloway seeming to play a part in that, on top of the expected coalescing of right wing votes into the Tory candidate. However the broad date range of this poll does not entirely include the delay to "Freedom day" becoming reality, nor does it include the result of Chesham and Amersham confirming the Tories losing that seat, so it's hard to tell what impact that might have unless another poll is released in due course.

I also noticed Anas Sarwar had come down from Scotland to help campaign with Jo Cox's sister recently.
These polls are often out of whack - only have to look at last weeks result which had the Tories as favourite or Hartlepool who had the NIP at 5% when they actually got 200 votes.
 

daodao

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Galloway is just a waste of space and should go away and find something more useful to do
He won't. I suspect he will have significant support in this constituency, given his sympathy for Muslim causes and the Labour candidate's personal predilections.

If Galloway does well in this by-election, sufficient to facilitate a Tory victory, the Labour party may conclude that Starmer needs to go, and be replaced by someone perceived as being less in hoc to the Zionist lobby and thus less of an electoral liability.

Please note that my comment is just an observation of the situation as I see it, and does not imply a political view.
 
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Busaholic

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I saw a tweet the other day calling the Batley and Spen by-election the “open sewer of British politics”.

Galloway’s leaflet to constituents was appalling: https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1408268091864330246?s=21
Galloway is not entitled to preface his name with Hon. His only justification presumably would be to describe it as being deeply ironic about himself, a position he has absolutely no history of to say the least. Perhaps I'll write to him addressing him as the Dishon. - absolutely no irony intended.
 

D6130

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I strongly suspect the current controversy surrounding the Secretary of State for Health will do the Tories' chances of taking Batley and Spen from Labour no favours whatsoever.
 

brad465

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I strongly suspect the current controversy surrounding the Secretary of State for Health will do the Tories' chances of taking Batley and Spen from Labour no favours whatsoever.
Yes while I don't think some Tory voters will suddenly turn to Labour or someone else, it will increase their chances of not turning up, but then again everything is very fickle in politics right now.
 

AlterEgo

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Galloway was giving speeches this weekend, ranting about how it’s immoral to teach children about gay relationships and wrongly saying that schools teach primary school children about gay sex acts. He’s also come out on the side of those people who hounded that schoolteacher out of a job after that prophet Muhammad furore.

One day there will be a reckoning about these issues and there will be a serious conversation, but like most other things it’ll be kicked into the long grass to culminate in a shock backlash like Brexit.

Every vote for Galloway and for Tommy Robinson’s mate Anne Marie Waters, who is also standing, is a damning indictment of our political culture. The results may make interesting reading.
 

WesternLancer

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Galloway was giving speeches this weekend, ranting about how it’s immoral to teach children about gay relationships and wrongly saying that schools teach primary school children about gay sex acts. He’s also come out on the side of those people who hounded that schoolteacher out of a job after that prophet Muhammad furore.

One day there will be a reckoning about these issues and there will be a serious conversation, but like most other things it’ll be kicked into the long grass to culminate in a shock backlash like Brexit.

Every vote for Galloway and for Tommy Robinson’s mate Anne Marie Waters, who is also standing, is a damning indictment of our political culture. The results may make interesting reading.
Shocking example of political opportunism, if not worse IMHO. Agree v much with your last para.
 

61653 HTAFC

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Galloway was giving speeches this weekend, ranting about how it’s immoral to teach children about gay relationships and wrongly saying that schools teach primary school children about gay sex acts. He’s also come out on the side of those people who hounded that schoolteacher out of a job after that prophet Muhammad furore.

One day there will be a reckoning about these issues and there will be a serious conversation, but like most other things it’ll be kicked into the long grass to culminate in a shock backlash like Brexit.

Every vote for Galloway and for Tommy Robinson’s mate Anne Marie Waters, who is also standing, is a damning indictment of our political culture. The results may make interesting reading.
I've had plenty of leaflets through my door, and the only one who have mentioned the Muhammad cartoon controversy are a previously unknown (to me) group calling themselves the "Christian Peoples (sic) Alliance". They seem somewhat confused though, as their leaflet says they support freedom of speech... then you open it up to see the headline "All Blasphemy is Wrong". :s

Then there's a bit about "LGBT propaganda" in schools... OK Boomer :rolleyes:

It would be funny if it wasn't so depressing.
 

brad465

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Can anyone clarify what the probability of the below article by Peter Oborne in the Middle East Eye being correct is:


It was among the most poisonous political briefings in recent times. With Labour facing defeat in next Thursday’s Batley and Spen by-election, a “senior official” from the party turned on Muslim voters, accusing them of antisemitism.

The briefing was deadly: “We’re haemorrhaging votes among Muslim voters, and the reason for that is what [party leader Keir Starmer] has been doing on antisemitism. Nobody really wants to talk about it, but that’s the main factor. He challenged [former leader Jeremy] Corbyn on it, and there’s been a backlash among certain sections of the community.”

When in trouble, pick on a minority. It’s a well-known political strategy.

Starmer’s supporters know that the Labour leader will be plunged into crisis if he loses Batley. They know that Starmer’s poll ratings are lower than Corbyn’s, and that he’s struggling to make headway in the Commons. They also know that he crashed to a humiliating by-election defeat at the hands of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Tories in the Labour heartland seat of Hartlepool in May.

Then, a week ago, Labour lost its deposit in another by-election in Chesham and Amersham, scoring just 622 votes, in what was reported as its worst-ever by-election result.

If Starmer suffers another humiliation in Batley, the knives will come out. Talk of a leadership crisis will intensify. So the Labour official’s briefing to the Mail On Sunday looks like a calculated, preemptive strike to save Starmer’s skin. It sends out the message that the Labour leader isn’t facing calamity in Batley because of incompetence, failure of leadership or lack of vision.

In short, don’t blame Starmer; smear Muslims instead. Disgusting politics of course, but someone close to Starmer has apparently calculated that it will work.

Ugly strategy​


At first sight, the Mail On Sunday is an unlikely receptacle for the Labour briefing. It’s a Tory paper, not famous for left-wing connections. But political columnist Dan Hodges, who reported these remarks, does possess important Labour contacts.

His mother, the celebrated actor Glenda Jackson, was for a time a Labour MP, while Hodges himself worked as a Labour researcher before establishing a reputation as a writer and commentator. Politically, he defines himself as a “tribal neo-Blairite”.

Starmer is surrounded by what might be called tribal neo-Blairite strategists, and one has poured his heart out to Hodges. The strategy is ugly, but not stupid. It plays on the fact that there is antisemitism among some British Muslims.

But it is wrong, and cowardly, to stigmatise all Muslims based on the repulsive views of a tiny minority. And it is important to bear in mind the presence of antisemitism not just in Muslim communities, but in many parts of British society - not least, as has been well-documented, in Johnson’s Conservative Party.

The Labour strategist who briefed the Mail On Sunday was not just guilty of shoddy politics. More importantly, there was no evidence that he or she understood that there are legitimate reasons why British Muslims would feel snubbed by Starmer’s Labour.

Belated and bland response​

Let’s consider Kashmir, from where many British Muslim families came after the 1947 partition. Many still have family there and travel back regularly, so they are acutely conscious of the terrible, well-documented abuses committed by Indian occupation forces: massacres, disappearances, torture, political suppression and attacks on free speech.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revocation of Kashmiri autonomy two years ago further heightened tensions. Yet, one of Starmer’s first acts after winning the Labour leadership was to change policy on Kashmir.

Corbyn had insisted that the UN’s resolutions on Kashmir, including a referendum on self-determination, should be implemented. In a statement after meeting with Labour Friends of India, however, Starmer asserted that Kashmir was a bilateral matter between India and Pakistan.

Starmer also disappointed many Muslims over what they saw as a belated and bland response to Israeli plans to expel Palestinians from their homes in occupied East Jerusalem, aggression at al-Aqsa Mosque, and killings in Gaza.

Starmer showed little leadership. His call earlier this month for a Palestinian state, made during Prime Minister’s Question Time, felt opportunistic, and occurred only after he realised that the Labour vote was crumbling in Batley.

Islamophobia problem​

Another problem for British Muslims is Starmer’s failure to address Islamophobia within the Labour Party itself. The Labour Muslim Network last year published a devastating report showing that 29 percent of Muslim Labour members and supporters have experienced Islamophobia in the party, while more than a third have witnessed it.

It found that nearly half of Muslim members and supporters lack confidence in Labour’s complaints procedure, while 59 percent do not feel “well represented by the leadership of the Labour Party”. It also noted that Muslims feel estranged from Labour over its position on the Prevent programme. For a party that prides itself on being anti-racist and inclusive, these are worrying findings.

In Starmer’s defence, his record on Kashmir, Palestine and Islamophobia is much better than that of Johnson. Indeed, Labour’s problem with Islamophobia, while serious, cannot be seriously compared with Johnson’s Tories. As a YouGov poll discovered, more than half of Tory members believe noxious Islamophobic conspiracy theories about British Muslim “no go” areas. Such views help to explain why approximately 85 percent of Muslims voted Labour in 2017.

It takes some doing for a Labour leader to drive Muslim voters away. Starmer needs to wake up to the fact that his policies are alienating Muslim voters. The answer is not to denounce them as antisemitic, as the aforementioned Labour official recently did. The answer is to probe the honourable and legitimate reasons why longstanding Labour voters are leaving his party.

Starmer needs to wake up.

In short one of Starmer's officials appears to have gone to the extreme and believes smearing Muslims for an expected by-election defeat this Thursday will work, before Oborne gives his analysis about the wider issues surrounding Starmer's policies in the eyes of Muslim voters. Personally I hope Starmer doesn't take this official seriously if this account is true.
 

WesternLancer

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brad465

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This is the front of Downing Street at the moment, with a Pride arch in place:

1625051558518.png

I don't have anything against this, but it baffles me that some voters are against the Labour candidate for her LGBT position, who's wrongfully faced abuse as a result, but if they vote Tory they somehow don't associate with such views.
 

WelshBluebird

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This is the front of Downing Street at the moment, with a Pride arch in place:

View attachment 99083

I don't have anything against this, but it baffles me that some voters are against the Labour candidate for her LGBT position, who's wrongfully faced abuse as a result, but if they vote Tory they somehow don't associate with such views.
Especially as, as much as it pains me to say so, it was the Conservatives who legalised same sex marriage too.
 

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Especially as, as much as it pains me to say so, it was the Conservatives who legalised same sex marriage too.

It was the Coalition government who legalised same sex marriage. Indeed, it was rather "despite the conservatives" than thanks to them, more Conservative members voted against than for it!
 

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This is the front of Downing Street at the moment, with a Pride arch in place:

View attachment 99083

I don't have anything against this, but it baffles me that some voters are against the Labour candidate for her LGBT position, who's wrongfully faced abuse as a result, but if they vote Tory they somehow don't associate with such views.
I very much doubt if anybody in the constituency is getting a clear idea of any party’s position on just about anything. It seems to be nothing but the hurling of insults and vitriol.
 

61653 HTAFC

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I very much doubt if anybody in the constituency is getting a clear idea of any party’s position on just about anything. It seems to be nothing but the hurling of insults and vitriol.
Meanwhile Galloway can send out gangs armed with eggs to throw at Labour canvassers and nobody bats an eyelid. :rolleyes:

And BoJo can describe the Tory candidate as "a fine local candidate" despite him being a Leeds Councillor.

The anti-Labour bias in the media is so thick you can chew it.
 

Horizon22

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Especially as, as much as it pains me to say so, it was the Conservatives Coalition who legalised same sex marriage too.

Pushed and led very heavily by a Liberal Democrat minister, Lynne Featherstone.
 

Purple Orange

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Especially as, as much as it pains me to say so, it was the Conservatives who legalised same sex marriage too.

The Lib Dems were the party who pushed for legalisation of same sex marriage as a part of the coalition, knowing there was a majority for it. The opposition came from Tory MPs, who as a party voted overall to reject same sex marriage. We should not be giving credit to the conservatives for this at all - a majority of their MPs did not want it and it was their party that inflicted the same legislation upon children in the 90s that Hungary is pushing through today.
 

61653 HTAFC

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The Lib Dems were the party who pushed for legalisation of same sex marriage as a part of the coalition, knowing there was a majority for it. The opposition came from Tory MPs, who as a party voted overall to reject same sex marriage. We should not be giving credit to the conservatives for this at all - a majority of their MPs did not want it and it was their party that inflicted the same legislation upon children in the 90s that Hungary is pushing through today.
Though the two parties in coalition did, between them, see the writing on the wall in terms of where the public were on marriage equality. New Labour on the other hand were scared of the loud minority who were opposed, so we got the sop that was Civil Partnerships instead. Although Tony Blair's secret Catholicism might have been a factor there too.
 

D6130

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My wife is an active member of the Labour party in the town in West Yorkshire where we live, which is only a half hour's train journey from Batley. She and a few friends had planned to go over tomorrow to help out with last minute door-to-door canvassing, but they have now been advised by local party officials not to go, as there is perceived to be a serious risk of real violence breaking out. What price democracy in our 'wonderful' free country?
 
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