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The EU "Deal" - poll!

Should we accept the deal, have no-deal or remain?

  • Accept the deal

    Votes: 17 7.1%
  • Reject the deal and leave the EU with no deal

    Votes: 60 25.1%
  • Reject the deal and remain in the EU

    Votes: 162 67.8%

  • Total voters
    239
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Howardh

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papers also saying may wants to delay the 'meaningful vote. not sure thats been thought through. The 29th March deadline isnt far away, and if MP's fail to make a decision, then we will leave with no deal then.

Extending Art 50, having a referendum, cancelling Art 50 all would need a new act of parliament passing through the Commons and the Lords. I am not sure that the necessary consultations, the passing of any law and implementation could be done in that timescale. And if she delays the 'meaningful vote', then the time is even less. No means certain any bill would pass seeing as party discipline has broken down over brexit.

Also note that if the vote on mays WA fails, it isnt that easy to have another vote. the convention is that the same motion cant be out in the same session except in special circumstances. The government would have to get the speaker to agree to a second vote on the WA.

Still think £5 on is leaving with no deal on 29th May is worth a punt.
The deadline isn't March 29th - it's in January sometime. Don't ask why...all I know is both parties have a must-do date and if you take out the Xmas holidays there are around 20 working days, and they tick off every day there's a delay.
Think all they can do on a failed vote is to immediately ask for A50 to be extended, and the EU say they will only agree if there's a valid reason - a referendum or a general election.
(I suppose there's a chance both parties can amend the deal to try to get that amendment through)
Which begs the question what happens next if the Tories win and Leave win again - and we can't have no-deal and can't extend A50 any further?
I suppose then they would have to go back to may's deal and pass it through parliament even if the majority of MP's dont want it.
Who created this mess??
 
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bramling

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The deadline isn't March 29th - it's in January sometime. Don't ask why...all I know is both parties have a must-do date and if you take out the Xmas holidays there are around 20 working days, and they tick off every day there's a delay.
Think all they can do on a failed vote is to immediately ask for A50 to be extended, and the EU say they will only agree if there's a valid reason - a referendum or a general election.
(I suppose there's a chance both parties can amend the deal to try to get that amendment through)
Which begs the question what happens next if the Tories win and Leave win again - and we can't have no-deal and can't extend A50 any further?
I suppose then they would have to go back to may's deal and pass it through parliament even if the majority of MP's dont want it.
Who created this mess??

Putting aside the arguments of whether or not it's a good thing in the medium / long term, the main immediate obstacle to no deal is the lack of preparation. I'm not sure even the DUP can directly block it, although they could pull out of their arrangement to upset things.

I don't think a GE will solve anything - I suspect the result would end up being pretty much exactly the same as last time.
 

Howardh

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Putting aside the arguments of whether or not it's a good thing in the medium / long term, the main immediate obstacle to no deal is the lack of preparation. I'm not sure even the DUP can directly block it, although they could pull out of their arrangement to upset things.

I don't think a GE will solve anything - I suspect the result would end up being pretty much exactly the same as last time.
If we take this little straw poll as an example of what the countyr thinks, over 90% of us don't want the deal - that's untenable and it also means those that "won" the referendum didn't get what they were entitled to; so what's the flaming point?
But right from the start there was no no-deal option due to the EU/UK physical border, so if we HAD to have a referendum then there should have been a choice between a pre-arranged deal or remain. So, in effect, article 50 should have been triggered on Wednesday when we know the deal parliament accepted on our behalf.
It's just been madness, and ill-thought out madness at that.
 

HH

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Still think £5 on is leaving with no deal on 29th May is worth a punt.
It's about the right ratio for sterling to the punt (if it still existed) after Brexit.

I think I'll have an in game bet when Ray Winstone says, "In-play now!"
 

Ken H

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The deadline isn't March 29th - it's in January sometime. Don't ask why...all I know is both parties have a must-do date and if you take out the Xmas holidays there are around 20 working days, and they tick off every day there's a delay.
Think all they can do on a failed vote is to immediately ask for A50 to be extended, and the EU say they will only agree if there's a valid reason - a referendum or a general election.
(I suppose there's a chance both parties can amend the deal to try to get that amendment through)
Which begs the question what happens next if the Tories win and Leave win again - and we can't have no-deal and can't extend A50 any further?
I suppose then they would have to go back to may's deal and pass it through parliament even if the majority of MP's dont want it.
Who created this mess??

Yes I have heard about this jan deadline but cant find any reference to it

Can anyone help as to what it is and how it affects things. And does it have a name that we can google.
 

Howardh

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Yes I have heard about this jan deadline but cant find any reference to it

Can anyone help as to what it is and how it affects things. And does it have a name that we can google.
Dunno specifically - it may be the Euro budget and also the elections which are due (if we remain we will have to have MEP's elected) but in any canse, if it's "no deal" we really do need a couple of months to get the most basic treaties organised, ie. getting planes to land, ferries to dock etc. After all, we will have left the EU and as such will not have a single treaty with them; and the only thing we know for sure is that we can carry on just using our passports (for now) and that there WILL be plans to make sure planes/trains/feries can continue.
But the negative side is the French will insist on thorough checks at thir ports thus holding up said shipments which is where operation Brock and turning Kent into a car/lorry park for some weeks after comes in.
If anyone knows - under *no-deal* - if we deffo lose our EHIC, what happens with the unlimited duty-paid goods we bring back for personal use (booze cruises) - is that abandones and we go back to a thimbleful of duty-dree (often at greater cost than buying from a supermarket!) and which lanes will we use at EU airports...presumably the non-EU ones?? Also do we need extra driver's permits, extra insurance (green card?)??
Two months should be sufficient to at least organise the above. If we left it until March 29 then...two hours?? I don't think so, not this flaming lot.
Scrub that...two decades is pushing it....
 

furnessvale

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Dunno specifically - it may be the Euro budget and also the elections which are due (if we remain we will have to have MEP's elected) but in any canse, if it's "no deal" we really do need a couple of months to get the most basic treaties organised, ie. getting planes to land, ferries to dock etc. After all, we will have left the EU and as such will not have a single treaty with them; and the only thing we know for sure is that we can carry on just using our passports (for now) and that there WILL be plans to make sure planes/trains/feries can continue.
But the negative side is the French will insist on thorough checks at thir ports thus holding up said shipments which is where operation Brock and turning Kent into a car/lorry park for some weeks after comes in.
If anyone knows - under *no-deal* - if we deffo lose our EHIC, what happens with the unlimited duty-paid goods we bring back for personal use (booze cruises) - is that abandones and we go back to a thimbleful of duty-dree (often at greater cost than buying from a supermarket!) and which lanes will we use at EU airports...presumably the non-EU ones?? Also do we need extra driver's permits, extra insurance (green card?)??
Two months should be sufficient to at least organise the above. If we left it until March 29 then...two hours?? I don't think so, not this flaming lot.
Scrub that...two decades is pushing it....
Given that 70% of the HGVs crossing the Channel from UK to the EU are returning empty having tipped in the UK and the majority of them are EU hauliers, I know where most of the pain will be felt.
 

Howardh

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Given that 70% of the HGVs crossing the Channel from UK to the EU are returning empty having tipped in the UK and the majority of them are EU hauliers, I know where most of the pain will be felt.
I think there's a contradiction in there.
UK > EU full,
tipping in the UK (??)
returning empty?
 

Ken H

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Dunno specifically - it may be the Euro budget and also the elections which are due (if we remain we will have to have MEP's elected) but in any canse, if it's "no deal" we really do need a couple of months to get the most basic treaties organised, ie. getting planes to land, ferries to dock etc. After all, we will have left the EU and as such will not have a single treaty with them; and the only thing we know for sure is that we can carry on just using our passports (for now) and that there WILL be plans to make sure planes/trains/feries can continue.
But the negative side is the French will insist on thorough checks at thir ports thus holding up said shipments which is where operation Brock and turning Kent into a car/lorry park for some weeks after comes in.
If anyone knows - under *no-deal* - if we deffo lose our EHIC, what happens with the unlimited duty-paid goods we bring back for personal use (booze cruises) - is that abandones and we go back to a thimbleful of duty-dree (often at greater cost than buying from a supermarket!) and which lanes will we use at EU airports...presumably the non-EU ones?? Also do we need extra driver's permits, extra insurance (green card?)??
Two months should be sufficient to at least organise the above. If we left it until March 29 then...two hours?? I don't think so, not this flaming lot.
Scrub that...two decades is pushing it....
bloody government should have been making contingency plans for a no deal since 24 june 2016. their not doing that is woeful.

I have looked at the European Union (Withdrawal) act 2018 - the bit about Jan 2019 is section 10 onwards.
not really much clearer TBH
read the law yourself here
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/13/enacted
 

Howardh

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furnessvale

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I think there's a contradiction in there.
UK > EU full,
tipping in the UK (??)
returning empty?
I don't see one.

HGVs entering the UK are mainly loaded. HGVs exiting the UK are 70% empty. Most haulage is carried out by EU hauliers.

Tipping is haulage talk for unloading.
 

Ken H

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Given that 70% of the HGVs crossing the Channel from UK to the EU are returning empty having tipped in the UK and the majority of them are EU hauliers, I know where most of the pain will be felt.

Road haulage from the EU accounts to less than 10% of our trade. The volumes coming through Felixtowe, Thames gateway, Southampton, Tilbury, Immingham etc far outstrip ro-ro
And the UK major Ports group, (trade body) say that sector is resilient enough to cope with Brexit.
 

Howardh

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I don't see one.

HGVs entering the UK are mainly loaded. HGVs exiting the UK are 70% empty. Most haulage is carried out by EU hauliers.

Tipping is haulage talk for unloading.
You say lorries are leaving the UK full and going to the EU, but you say those same lorries are tipping in the UK therefore they would leave empty? Doesn't make sense.
 

furnessvale

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You say lorries are leaving the UK full and going to the EU, but you say those same lorries are tipping in the UK therefore they would leave empty? Doesn't make sense.
May I suggest you reread your post #253 AND my post #251 and look for YOUR inconsistencies!

Having reread my post #247, I concede my wording could have been a bit better. By rearranging the sentence its meaning is clarified, "Having tipped in the UK, 70% of the HGVs crossing the channel from the UK are returning empty. Most cross channel haulage is done by EU hauliers".
 
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furnessvale

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So why do the majority of haulage businesses in Dover (and indeed elsewhere) warn of serious queues?
They fear a disturbance of their cosy existing system. Post #252 poses the question, just how do we manage with the vast non EU trade through other ports without problems?
 

EM2

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Given that 70% of the HGVs crossing the Channel from UK to the EU are returning empty having tipped in the UK and the majority of them are EU hauliers, I know where most of the pain will be felt.
Yes, most of the pain will be felt here, because that means that goods coming into the country will be held up at French customs. Traffic-wise, however, the impact here will still be substantial because trucks will still have to be checked to show that they're empty.
 

furnessvale

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Not sure how you can call frictionless trade cosy existing system - you want trade to be hard between countries and barriers to be put into place to make life harder for everyone???
By removing my second sentence you removed my assertion that there is no need for systems to be HARD but perhaps different which is why I call the existing system "cosy".
 

nidave

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By removing my second sentence you removed my assertion that there is no need for systems to be HARD but perhaps different which is why I call the existing system "cosy".
ok I accept that - so what do you want as a replacement for fictionless trade between the UK and the EU taking into account the law.
 

furnessvale

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Yes, most of the pain will be felt here, because that means that goods coming into the country will be held up at French customs. Traffic-wise, however, the impact here will still be substantial because trucks will still have to be checked to show that they're empty.
Customs checks are normally carried out by the importing country. Thus there is no reason for France to check HGVs leaving their country (except bloody mindedness). As for HGVs entering France, 70% are empty and easily sent on their way.

Any delays will be caused by the Gallic shrug, not the UK.
 

furnessvale

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ok I accept that - so what do you want as a replacement for fictionless trade between the UK and the EU taking into account the law.
Systems that work at Southampton, Felixstowe, Thames Gateway, Tilbury and Liverpool will do nicely.
 

Howardh

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May I suggest you reread your post #253 AND my post #251 and look for YOUR inconsistencies!

Having reread my post #247, I concede my wording could have been a bit better. By rearranging the sentence its meaning is clarified, "Having tipped in the UK, 70% of the HGVs crossing the channel from the UK are returning empty. Most cross channel haulage is done by EU hauliers".
Ah, so you agree then that we are clearly hugely dependent on EU goods and to restrict supplies and/or add tariffs + any downfall of the pound would hit the UK consumer.
 

Howardh

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Customs checks are normally carried out by the importing country. Thus there is no reason for France to check HGVs leaving their country (except bloody mindedness). As for HGVs entering France, 70% are empty and easily sent on their way.

Any delays will be caused by the Gallic shrug, not the UK.
All those "empty lorries" still have to be checked to see that they are, indeed, empty + the driver and his credentials (permits etc) by the French on re-entry to the EU which AFAIK doesn't apply now. So there will be delays even with empty vehicles - unless they are driverless (which IS possible if we have systems in place where ferrys drive/lift the vehicles on/off themselves).
Backlogs at, say Calais, will have the effect of holding up incoming ferries (as happens during strikes) causing a backlog at Dover and into Kent. That, of course, is well known (operation Stack etc).
 

Esker-pades

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They fear a disturbance of their cosy existing system. Post #252 poses the question, just how do we manage with the vast non EU trade through other ports without problems?
Road haulage from the EU accounts to less than 10% of our trade. The volumes coming through Felixtowe, Thames gateway, Southampton, Tilbury, Immingham etc far outstrip ro-ro
And the UK major Ports group, (trade body) say that sector is resilient enough to cope with Brexit.
1: It is possible to check en-route (unlike on a 90 minute sailing from Calais)
2: We can manage at the moment because a lot of trade is EU. When 100% of our trade is non-EU, all of it will have to be checked which increases waiting times for everyone. Port docking times are long enough for non-EU ships to be checked at major ports, not every single boat.
3: "Cope" is not positive. It means that things will be bad, but won't implode. That should not be the aim.
4: A comparison between very long-haul shipping and rapid road haulage is not comparing like for like.
5: Take the Ireland-Great Britain shipping. Most lorries there are covered by the EU, so they can pass on through just fine. But, the rare non-EU lorries have to be processed. Recent experience from people who actually do this sort of thing is ~4 hours. Now, this time could be reduced, but if every lorry takes even an hour to be processed, that's a hell of a lot of infrastructure that we will need. Infrastructure that we do not have and cannot just appear. Dover-Calais will be worse because more stuff passes through.

https://www.rha.uk.net/news/press-releases/2018-07-july/brexit-and-the-uk-haulage-industry-–-no-deal-no-jobs-no-food
On Tuesday 24 July [2018], MPs in the House of Commons were heard to repeat ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

But for the 7000+ members of the Road Haulage Association who, between them operate nearly 50% of the UK’s 496,000 lorry fleet (and the UK haulage industry as a whole), the prospect of a future without a Brexit deal looks extremely bleak.

A no-deal Brexit will create massive problems for international hauliers – whether UK or mainland Europe based. It is time for a reality check.

Since the prospect of leaving the EU became a reality in June 2016, the Road Haulage Association has been campaigning tirelessly to get the best deal for its members. It is essential – for the people and businesses of mainland Europe and Great Britain that the current system of frictionless borders continues.

For supply chains, customs controls and the controlling of lorry movements the key issues. Should there be no deal and customs controls are established for UK hauliers at every European border, the knock-on effect will be crippling.

According to RHA chief Executive Richard Burnett, “The Dover Strait handles 10,000 lorries each day and processing them through the port is currently seamless.

“The stark reality is that if customs controls are put in place, it will take an average of about 45 minutes to process one truck on both sides of the channel. If that happens then the queues of HGVs in Kent will make the jams seen in the summer of 2015 appear as little more than waiting for the traffic lights to change.”

In March this year Transport Secretary Chris Grayling MP said: “We will maintain a free-flowing border at Dover, we will not impose checks at the port, it is utterly unrealistic to do so. We don't check lorries now, we're not going to be checking lorries in the future. I’m clear that it cannot happen.”

But what about the French?

If they put customs processes in place in March 2019 to check all lorries traveling between the UK and the EU hauliers will be faced with the prospect of coming over to the UK and having to wait for days – even weeks, before they can return home. This will be a huge deterrent to them making the journey at all.

50% of food consumed in the UK’s comes from around the world – of which 70% comes from the EU.

It is not just customs, ECMT* permits for lorries to carry goods internationally will be required. For UK operators these are limited to less than 5% of the number of licences currently issued. If that scenario becomes reality, most UK operators will unable to go and get the goods themselves. Without special arrangements EU operators will also need to use ECMT permits.

British hauliers that make international journeys will be forced out of business, causing irreparable damage to the supply chain. The foods we take for granted, oranges from Spain for example will become an expensive luxury. Supply and demand for basic foodstuffs could even mean the introduction of food rationing. Is this just scaremongering? No. Could it be the death knell for the thousands of hauliers that deliver 98% of the UK economy? Quite possibly. B

A Brexit without a deal will put thousands of HGV drivers out of a job and millions without the food they have come to expect. With just over 6 months to go until the UK leaves the EU, the time for political grandstanding is over. UK hauliers need practical solutions to resolve practical problems.


Notes to Editors

  • An ECMT permit (European Conference of Ministers of Transport) is needed to operate lorries above 3.5 tonnes on international journeys where other arrangements do not exist. (EU and other bilateral agreements cover most trips now, the EU Community Licences that allow lorry movement now within the EU will cease to be valid when the UK leaves the EU).
ECMT permits are valid for one calendar year and allow an unlimited number of journeys within that period. The UK does not currently issue monthly permits.

Permits may be transferred between vehicles but are valid for only one vehicle at a time. The permit and a log book must be kept on board the lorry for the whole journey.

There are limited numbers of ECMT permits allowed to be issued by the UK – if every permit was issued to a Euro VI lorry no more than 1,224 UK lorries could work on UK – EU trade. (this is less than 5% the number of Community Licences used by UK international operators now).

Transiting through EU States to places outside the EU may also require use of ECMT permits.

Without special arrangements for EU lorries they will require ECMT permits to enter or transit through the UK. These are limited by ECMT quota too.

Additional Data
  1. In the past year 4.8 million driver-accompanied freight vehicles moved between the UK and Europe. Around 4 million of these movements were by ferry through Dover or by shuttle through the Channel Tunnel.
  2. According to HMRC, around 99% of these did not require any customs clearance process at all, the can lorries simply drive straight onto the road network on arrival.
  3. Customs controls do not have to take place at the border. There are also checks on agricultural produce that will need to take place at Border Inspection Posts in the event of a no deal.
 

furnessvale

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Ah, so you agree then that we are clearly hugely dependent on EU goods and to restrict supplies and/or add tariffs + any downfall of the pound would hit the UK consumer.
HaHa! I agree that the balance of trade hugely benefits the EU if that is what you mean! :)

ps, I also agree that any downfall of the pound will greatly assist UK exporters.
 
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furnessvale

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All those "empty lorries" still have to be checked to see that they are, indeed, empty + the driver and his credentials (permits etc) by the French on re-entry to the EU which AFAIK doesn't apply now. So there will be delays even with empty vehicles - unless they are driverless (which IS possible if we have systems in place where ferrys drive/lift the vehicles on/off themselves).
Backlogs at, say Calais, will have the effect of holding up incoming ferries (as happens during strikes) causing a backlog at Dover and into Kent. That, of course, is well known (operation Stack etc).
Unaccompanied trailers are already a large slice of existing moves. As an aside, any move to unaccompanied or Lo-Lo can only assist railfreight which is no bad thing.
 

Howardh

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1: It is possible to check en-route (unlike on a 90 minute sailing from Calais)
2: We can manage at the moment because a lot of trade is EU. When 100% of our trade is non-EU, all of it will have to be checked which increases waiting times for everyone. Port docking times are long enough for non-EU ships to be checked at major ports, not every single boat.
3: "Cope" is not positive. It means that things will be bad, but won't implode. That should not be the aim.
4: A comparison between very long-haul shipping and rapid road haulage is not comparing like for like.
5: Take the Ireland-Great Britain shipping. Most lorries there are covered by the EU, so they can pass on through just fine. But, the rare non-EU lorries have to be processed. Recent experience from people who actually do this sort of thing is ~4 hours. Now, this time could be reduced, but if every lorry takes even an hour to be processed, that's a hell of a lot of infrastructure that we will need. Infrastructure that we do not have and cannot just appear. Dover-Calais will be worse because more stuff passes through.

https://www.rha.uk.net/news/press-releases/2018-07-july/brexit-and-the-uk-haulage-industry-–-no-deal-no-jobs-no-food
Yes, it's often forgotten that lorries from the EU bound for the Republic transit through the UK (may even be dropping off and collecting en-route). That's zero problem today, it's as if it's all one country.
But after Bidet? What do we do with lorries destined for Ireland that arrive at Dover? I assume they would be checked and locked/sealed (where? Dover? Calais??) which would prevent dropping off on the way?
 
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